Get started

Japan

GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY. NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week. Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks. (Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
AMEX:SPY
by SPADESASSETS
What Next For The Yen?In Karate, offense is the best form of defence. The BoJ knows it. Japan faces a raft of economic headwinds which shows up in Yen’s performance. The BoJ intervened strongly last year to support the currency when it skirted around current levels. Yen is hovering at those levels again. BoJ is anticipated to act. Such interventions typically mark the bottom. This paper explores recent economic data to analyse the potential for monetary policy changes by BOJ. JAPANESE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAMPER YEN FROM STRENGTHENING Starting September, the Yen has trended lower relative to the USD among currency majors. The Yen has weakened the most. As described previously , BoJ’s aims to kickstart the economy onto a high growth trajectory to exit decades of painful deflation. Recent macroeconomic data indicates weakness. This reaffirms the need for continued loose monetary policy. However, a frail Yen poses a different type of challenge for the BoJ with higher import costs for fresh food and fuel. This leaves the BoJ in a predicament between loose monetary policy and intervention to support the Yen. What does recent inflation, GDP, and wage data point to? Inflation Inflation declined M-o-M in September. CPI cooled to 2.8% falling below 3% for the first time in a year. Importantly, Japan’s producer prices are now below 2% in a sign that inflation might have peaked. Consumer prices will fail to prevail above 4% for long with input prices moderating. The BoJ expects inflation to persist until March next year at current levels and to cool towards target rates in the following 12 months. GDP Growth The Japanese economy shrank 2.1% YoY in Q3. This is far below expectations of 0.6% decline and a sharp slowdown from +4.5% growth in Q2. Slow economic growth makes economic stimulus essential to sustain it. Wages Nominal wage growth continues to decline. Real wages are even more concerning. Wages have declined for the last 18 months when adjusted for inflation. Next Shunto negotiations are set to complete by mid-Jan 2024 with outcome remaining uncertain. The BoJ highlighted that wage uncertainties and price-setting behaviour pose upside risk to prices. Meanwhile, high inflation will keep impacting real wages, affecting people's ability to spend. THE BANK OF JAPAN IS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE At the October monetary policy meeting, the BoJ announced changes to the bond yield cap. The Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and range were kept unchanged. However, a small modification was made to change the 1% JGB yield cap from a rigid one to a loose reference. These changes hint at BoJ setting itself up for the eventual roll-back of the YCC policy altogether. Next BoJ policy meeting is set for December 19th. The BoJ will likely maintain stimulus and hold rates low amid feeble consumer & business spending. The policy change will be through YCC dismantling, impacting the JGB market. It will require careful planning and deft timing. Meanwhile, the BoJ may intervene to stem continued Yen weakness. The officials have expressed this sentiment over the last two weeks via warnings for participants shorting the Yen over the past two weeks. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened three times last year, injecting USD 68 billion to support the Yen when it was trading near 150/USD. These interventions, unannounced, led to sharp and unexpected currency moves. Unlike previous exchange rate-based interventions, the BoJ’s current predicament revolves around volatility and public perception. Reuters reports that if Japan aims to prevent yen appreciation, the MoF will issue short-term bills to raise Yen, which is then sold in the market to weaken the currency. Alternatively, to curb Yen depreciation, authorities will tap into Japan's FX reserves, exchanging dollars for the Yen. In recent weeks, Japanese authorities have issued warnings and expressed readiness to intervene as the Yen continues to weaken, despite a moderating USD. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency official, emphasized the urgency of their judgments and the potential for intervention, resonating with rhetorics used a year ago. MIXED SIGNALS FROM CURRENCY DERIVATIVES MARKETS Although asset managers are not positioned as net short as they were in late-September, they increased their net short positioning (weakening Yen) last Tuesday. Similarly, leveraged funds also increased net short positioning sharply last week. Options markets contrarily signal strength in the Yen. P/C ratio for CME Japanese Yen Options (JPU) is 0.42 implying two puts for every five calls. JPUs are quoted with the Yen as the base currency so call options express a view of the Yen strengthening. Moreover, bullish bets have increased heavily over the past week. Specifically, nearest monthly and weekly contracts (JPZ3 and WJ4X3) show Yen strengthening in the near term. Bullish bets in December options outnumber bearish bets by three times. Although put open interest (OI) is concentrated near current levels with the highest OI at 0.0066 (151 in USD/JPY), call OI is more spread across with a large OI at strike of 0.0069 (145 in USD/JPY) which has ballooned over the last week. This signals that options market expects Yen strengthening by next month. Finally, implied volatility on JPU is near its lowest level since March 2022. Source: CME CVOL Options skew on JPU is close to one, indicating that premiums on calls and puts are equally priced. Convexity remains elevated signalling investor interest in OTM options suggesting likelihood of sharp moves ahead. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given 12-month low implied volatility, a position in JPU can yield cost-effective protection against sharp Yen moves. Alternatively, with the anticipated stability in Japanese interest rates, a short futures position in CME Japanese Yen futures, as previously discussed in a paper , is a viable approach to capitalizing on Yen's expected weakening. We can tap into JPU to safeguard this position against unforeseen risks of yen strengthening from BoJ intervention. Furthermore, CME offers weekly options for Japanese Yen futures, expiring from Monday through Friday of the week. This enables investors to attain short-term exposure on a more focused scale, accompanied by lower premiums compared to monthly options. A long call option position in JPUZ3 (expiring on December 8) would benefit from a BoJ intervention. The trade setup consists of an entry at a strike of 0.0068 (JPY 147.0588) in JPUZ3 call options. These options are at a delta of 25 and expire in 30 days providing a good trade-off between low premium and adequate exposure to the underlying. As of settlement on November 17th, premium for these options stood at USD 245 at an implied volatility of 8.26%. Source: CME Options Calculator The position breaks even at 0.00682 (JPY 146.6275) and turns profitable when (a) underlying futures price increases above strike price, and/or (b) implied volatility increases. Source: CME QuikStrike MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Japan Inflation Overview JAPAN CPI Japan Headline and Core CPI for Sept both came in lower than expected. Japan Headline CPI: YoY – Actual 3.0% / Exp. 3.2% / Prev. 3.2% (green on chart) Japan Core CPI: YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.3% / Prev. 4.3% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates that Core CPI appears to be plateauing with Headline CPI decreasing from 4.3% to 3% since Jan 2023. Similar to the Eurozone chart you can we are long way from the moderate levels of inflation between -1.5 – 1.5% from 2015 – 2020 below. Japan’s economy contracted by 2.1 per cent during the third quarter of 2023, following an expansion in the previous two quarters. Analysts fear the country might slip into a recession. The contraction was sparked by a combination of sticky core inflation holding close to its 4.2 – 4.3% ceiling since May 2023, the slowing of exports, and low pay rises that appear to have led to weak domestic consumption. “Given the absence of a growth engine it wouldn’t surprise me if the Japanese economy contracted again in the current quarter. The risk of Japan falling into recession cannot be ruled out.” - Takeshi Minami – Chief Economist Norinchuckin Research Institute
ECONOMICS:JPCCPI
by PukaCharts
Soft landing calls for tough choices2023 has been a tough year for stock pickers. The gap between equity factor styles has been vast over H1. Growth, riskier in nature, posted the best performance up 24% year-to-date (YTD) followed closely behind by quality up 20% YTD1. The excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) reached a fever pitch in H1 2023, supporting growth-oriented technology stocks. As we enter H2 2023, we remain constructive on select areas of global equity markets. The resilience of the US economy has defied all odds. The strength of the US consumer (accounting for 70% of GDP), alongside the fiscal impulse, has been the cornerstone of the US’ extraordinary resilience. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline in the US, strong economic momentum alongside a rebound in commodities raises the risk of a re-acceleration of inflation. In turn, rates could remain higher for longer, resulting in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts being delayed until Q1 2024. In such an environment, an enhanced equity income approach could fit well. Even if the earnings outlook weakens in China, proactive policy support via rate cuts could support its stock multiples. In Europe, where we are likely to witness a mild recession, we believe adopting a more cautious and defensive approach is warranted. Earnings revision ratios remain the strongest in Japan while they are the weakest in emerging markets. US equities are the belle of the ball It was the narrowest market in history, with just 25% of stocks outperforming the S&P 500. Expectations of cooling inflation aiding the Fed to end its current tightening cycle supported the performance of higher-duration growth stocks. For investors calling for a soft landing, rates are likely to remain at current levels or higher for a longer duration of time. A tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and rising wages, is likely to slow the downward pricing momentum in the service sector. As the market regime transitions, it should provide a ripe opportunity for market breadth2 to improve. Markets may begin to favour value and dividend-paying stocks. History has shown us that breadth tends to improve as the economy recovers from a downturn. Peak pessimism towards China China’s reopening rebound has faded. The transition to a less debt-fuelled, less property-reliant and more consumer-driven economy is an important adjustment. We expect government stimulus policies to be aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the private sector. Further iterations of policy rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are likely to follow; however, outright quantitative easing won’t be on the cards, as it is likely to further weaken the yuan, which the PBOC would like to avoid. With a low correlation to US equities (at 20x P/E)3 coupled with a high valuation discount, pockets of China continue to provide good investment prospects. Pockets of opportunity in non-state-owned enterprises Non-state-owned enterprises, particularly within the Technology, Communication Services and Health Care sectors, faced the brunt of China’s regulatory crackdown. These regulatory interventions stifled growth in key sectors such as e-commerce, mobile payment, ride-hailing, and online education. It also resulted in the suspension of initial public offerings (IPOs) and delisting of Chinese internet companies. Growing political frictions in supply chains are incentivising China to regain independence in the semiconductor and hardware space. Chinese technology companies are trading at a significant discount compared to US peers, offering plenty of room to catch up. Prefer defensives over cyclicals as Europe runs out of steam Nearly six months back, investors marvelled at how the euro-area economy had emerged from the energy crisis. That momentum appears to be fading as China’s recovery slows down, consumer confidence declines, and the impact of tighter monetary policy gains a stronghold on the economy. Higher inflation over the past year is holding back demand from households, which is hurting growth. The monetary tightening over the past year not only triggered an increase in real rates, it also impacted borrowers’ credit metrics. Owing to this, eurozone banks have tightened their lending standards.4 Banks remain the primary source of corporate funding in Europe. The credit impulse—that is, the annual change in the growth of credit relative to GDP—in the euro area reached its lowest point since 2010. TINA is alive in Japan There is no alternative (TINA) to equities is still alive in Japan. This is evident from higher equity risk premiums of 2.97% for Japan compared to 0.41% in the US.5 While the rest of the world has been busy trying to quell the inflation fires, Japan has emerged from the COVID-19 lockdowns with a faster pace of growth and higher inflation. A combination of higher equity risk premiums, a weaker yen supportive of the Japanese export market, corporate reforms, and attractive valuations have been important catalysts for equities. Policy shift still remains loose The Bank of Japan (BOJ) took a significant step towards normalisation in July by announcing a further adjustment to its yield curve control (YCC) regime. The BOJ formally changing its course constitutes an acknowledgement that inflation is returning to the Japanese economy. Yet the BOJ lowered its (median) inflation forecast for fiscal year (FY) 2024 to +1.9% and left its FY 2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%, in effect justifying ongoing easing by the BOJ. With Japan’s nominal growth rising over the coming years, the revised policy by the BOJ still remains loose, supporting the case for Japanese equities. Historically, a weaker yen has benefitted the performance of Japanese exporters as it enhances their competitive advantage. Adopting a tilt towards dividend-paying Japanese equities is likely to reap the benefits of not only a weaker yen but also corporate governance reforms. Conclusion As we progress into year-end, the outlook remains more nuanced. In the US, we favour value and dividend stocks as equity market breadth improves. While China’s problems in the housing sector are likely to remain a drag on domestic demand, we do see pockets of opportunity in undervalued sectors – technology and healthcare. Given the strong manufacturing headwinds facing Europe, we expect weak growth in the eurozone for the remainder of 2023, potentially favouring a tilt towards defensive stocks. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 11 October 2023. 2 Breadth is measured by comparing the equal weighted performance versus the market cap-weighted performance of the US stocks listed on the S&P 500 Index. 3 P/E = price to earnings ratio. 4 Euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), April 2023. 5 Bloomberg, WisdomTree, as of 29 September 2023. Equity risk premium is the difference between the earnings yield and the respective 10-Year Government Bond Yield. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
SP:SPX
by aneekaguptaWTE
Is it safe to set sell orders at 150.000 for USD/JPY now? Did the BoJ secretly intervene in USD/JPY on Tuesday? And is there more to come? For now, Bank of Japan officials have avoided explicitly stating whether they had stepped into the market to strengthen the yen. After the USD/JPY crossed 150.000 (its weakest levels in a year), a huge candle appeared on Tuesday touching as low as 147.300 before closing at 149.100. The Bank of Japan's data apparently showed that it did not intervene (its current account balance was within the estimated range). So, if it wasn’t a BoJ intervention, what was it? A self-fulfilling prophecy? Maybe both? It’s all a bit murky. Even former BOJ official Hideo Kumano said that Tuesday's move showed all the hallmarks of intervention. Of course, if it was the BoJ, they would be willing to do it again if needed as they have stated many times (although the officials like to phrase it as combating excess volatility rather than combatting a weakening yen). Tuesday intervention could have just been a warning shot to those looking to bet against the yen, with more drastic action from the BoJ locked and loaded. The BoJ last officially intervened in the currency markets in September and October last year, when the USD/JPY hit a 32-year low of 151.940. At that time, intervention was able to push the pair down to 146.000. Which begs the question; what could be some possible targets this year? Well, the aforementioned wick’s low of 147.300 is an obvious target, with 147.000 just below it. But, like the wider context, targets become a little murkier after these levels. Last year's pivot points at 145.700 and 145.500 might come into play.
by BlackBull_Markets
Yen Drops Below 150 Per Dollar - Exercise Caution in TradingThe Japanese yen has recently dropped below the critical threshold of 150 per dollar, primarily due to mounting concerns regarding intervention measures. In light of this situation, I strongly urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarification is obtained. The sudden decline in the yen's value has raised concerns among market participants, as it suggests the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. Intervention refers to deliberate actions taken by authorities to influence their currency's exchange rate, typically through buying or selling large amounts of their own currency in the foreign exchange market. Such interventions can have a profound impact on the currency's value and create significant volatility in the market. Given the uncertainty surrounding the current situation, it is prudent to reassess our trading strategies and ensure that we are not unnecessarily exposed to potential risks. Therefore, I strongly recommend that you temporarily halt yen trading until we receive further guidance or clarification from reliable sources regarding any potential intervention measures. In the meantime, I encourage you to closely monitor the latest news and market developments related to the yen. Stay informed about any official statements or actions from the Japanese government or central bank, as these can provide valuable insights into the future direction of the currency. Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio to reduce reliance on yen-based assets until the situation stabilizes. Please remember that our primary objective is to protect our investments and mitigate risk. By exercising caution and temporarily pausing yen trading, we can better position ourselves to navigate the current market uncertainties and make informed decisions when clarity emerges. If you have any questions or require further guidance, please do not hesitate to reach out to me or our dedicated support team. We are here to assist you and ensure that you have the necessary information to make well-informed trading decisions.
by bryandowningqln
11
Potential BOJ Intervening on Yen Post-Federal Reserve MeetingIntroduction: In the ever-evolving world of currency trading, it's crucial for traders to stay informed about potential interventions by central banks. The recent Federal Reserve meeting has sparked speculation about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) next move regarding the yen. This article aims to examine the likelihood of BOJ intervention and provide a cautious analysis to traders considering long yen positions. Understanding the Context: The Federal Reserve's policies and decisions often have a significant impact on currency markets worldwide. As the world's two largest economies, the United States and Japan share a complex relationship that can influence currency valuations. Following any significant developments in the US monetary policy, it is prudent to assess the potential response from the BOJ and its implications for the yen. Analyzing the Possibility of BOJ Intervention: While predicting central bank actions is inherently challenging, there are a few factors that warrant attention when considering the likelihood of BOJ intervention on the yen: 1. Exchange Rate Stability: BOJ's primary concern is maintaining stability in the yen's exchange rate. If the yen appreciates rapidly against major currencies, it may harm Japan's export-driven economy. In such cases, the BOJ may intervene to prevent excessive yen appreciation. 2. Economic Recovery: Japan's ongoing efforts to revive its economy have been met with mixed results. The BOJ may consider intervening to support economic growth, particularly if the Federal Reserve's policies threaten to weaken the yen significantly. 3. Global Market Sentiment: The BOJ closely monitors global market sentiment, as abrupt changes can impact the yen's value. If the Federal Reserve's decisions lead to substantial market volatility, the BOJ may intervene to stabilize the yen and mitigate potential risks. Call-to-Action: Long Yen with Caution Considering the aforementioned factors, traders contemplating long yen positions should exercise caution and adopt a measured approach. Here are a few suggestions to consider: 1. Stay Informed: Continuously monitor news and updates from both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ to anticipate any potential intervention. Being aware of economic indicators, policy statements, and market sentiment is crucial for making informed trading decisions. 2. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential entry and exit points for yen positions. Combining technical analysis with fundamental factors can help traders navigate the market with a more comprehensive approach. 3. Risk Management: Implement robust risk management strategies to protect your capital. Setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio can help mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements. Conclusion: While the possibility of BOJ intervention on the yen after the Federal Reserve meeting cannot be ruled out, traders should approach long yen positions with caution. By staying informed, conducting thorough analysis, and implementing effective risk management strategies, traders can navigate the currency markets more confidently. Remember, the key to successful trading lies in a balanced and informed approach. asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Yen-intervention-watch-redoubles-after-Fed-BOJ-meetings Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct independent research and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.
TVC:JXYLong
by bryandowningqln
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is. And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system. As a risk on asset When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets. Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
BOJ Intervention Needed as Yen Continues to WeakenAs avid participants in the forex market, we must remain vigilant and proactive in monitoring this situation, as it may have significant implications for our trading strategies and overall market stability. The USDJPY exchange rate has experienced a persistent upward trend in recent weeks, primarily driven by the yen's continuous depreciation. This trend can have far-reaching consequences for global trade, investment flows, and economic stability if left unchecked. It is high time that we collectively address this issue and urge the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene appropriately to restore balance and mitigate the potential risks of such rapid currency fluctuations. The BOJ's intervention is crucial to ensure that market forces do not push the yen into a fragile position, which could lead to unintended consequences. While some currency depreciation can benefit export-oriented economies, an overly weakened yen may spark concerns of competitive devaluation, leading to retaliatory measures and a destabilized international trading environment. Therefore, I implore each of you to monitor the USDJPY exchange rate in the short term closely. Keep a watchful eye for any signs of a potential dip in this currency pair, as it could indicate an opportune moment for the BOJ to step in and stabilize the yen's value. We can collectively contribute to maintaining a balanced and fair forex market by staying informed and alert. Additionally, I encourage you to spread awareness about the importance of BOJ intervention among your fellow traders, colleagues, and industry contacts. Let us unite in our call for action, urging the BOJ to take appropriate measures to address the weakening yen. Together, our voices can carry weight and help safeguard the stability of the forex market. In conclusion, let us remain proactive, concerned, and engaged in monitoring the USDJPY exchange rate. By doing so, we can actively encourage the BOJ to intervene when necessary, ensuring a more stable and predictable forex market for all participants.
by bryandowningqln
14
Yen's Resilience Challenged: What's Next for USD/JPY? The Yen's struggle against the US Dollar persists this week, as the USDJPY settles above 143.00 and reaches a new high for the third consecutive day. After some sideways trading, traders are now resuming a bullish push aimed at reaching the recent high of 143.9000, followed by potential targets at 144.00 and 145.050. Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised the markets by making a slight adjustment to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. While this adjustment might have been relatively small, it has kept market participants alert to the possibility of FX intervention if the Yen continues to weaken. In this context, the 50-day MA at 141.430 could offer immediate support. The most significant event to watch on the calendar is tomorrow's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. A CPI figure lower than anticipated could put pressure on the USD/JPY pair, whereas a higher reading could renew interest in levels above 145.000. However, the potential for BoJ intervention remains a concern for traders operating above this threshold.
by BlackBull_Markets