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USD/JPY: Japan’s Snap Election Opportunities Japan is holding a snap election this Sunday, triggered by a scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite a general election not being due until late 2025. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for all but four of the last 65 years, has seen its popularity plummet. In June, its poll numbers hit their lowest point this century. While some polls predict the party could cling to its majority, bolstered by a fragmented opposition, fresh data from the Nikkei suggests a different outcome. The business daily warns that the LDP may fall short of securing a majority, a result that could lead to political upheaval not seen since 2009. Pullbacks in USD/JPY have been lessening since early October, and after clearing the 150.00 mark, the next targets for the bulls may be the 200-Day Moving Average and the range between 150.90 and 151.10. Amid a snap election, 152.00 is also a possible target. If the pair experiences another pullback, traders might consider a mid-point of current price action as a potential resistance level.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024) As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action. 1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials. 2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY. 3. Safe Haven Demand Waning The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen. Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment. 4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases. 5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback. 6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair. Conclusion Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance. Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
JPY Futures Drop as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsJPY futures have fallen below the 0.007134 level, driven by rising speculation of significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As market participants brace for potential monetary easing, the U.S. dollar has faced increased pressure, leading to weakness across several pairs, including JPY. Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by up to 100 basis points by the end of the year, which has become a key factor influencing the broader currency market. Key Market Dynamics: Fed and BoJ Rate Expectations The growing belief that the Federal Reserve will pursue aggressive rate cuts has been weighing heavily on the U.S. dollar, with many anticipating a softer policy stance in response to slowing economic growth and inflation concerns. This dovish outlook has provided some support for the yen, even as Japan’s economic conditions remain stable. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its interest rates steady at 0.25% when it meets on Friday. While the BoJ has been cautious with rate adjustments, keeping its ultra-low rate policy in place, the potential disparity between the Fed’s and BoJ’s stances could further impact JPY futures in the coming days. Technical Outlook: Rebound from Supply Area Signals Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, JPY futures have rebounded off a key supply area, a zone that has previously acted as resistance. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a divided picture, with retail traders showing extreme bullishness on the yen, suggesting expectations of further strength. However, institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” remain strongly bearish on the currency, signaling their belief that the recent uptick may be short-lived. This divergence in sentiment provides a clear opportunity for a short position, as the bearish outlook from institutional players suggests that the yen could face downward pressure once the initial bullish momentum subsides. Looking Ahead: Short Position Setup Given the current technical setup and the wider macroeconomic backdrop, we are positioning for a short trade on JPY futures. With the price having already bounced off a significant supply area and smart money positioning heavily on the bearish side, a reversal looks increasingly likely. Furthermore, if the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts materialize, the U.S. dollar could stabilize or even rebound, adding further downside pressure to JPY futures. In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's respective decisions, as they will be the critical drivers of yen movement in the short term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES _Channel Target Reached +310% PROFITMITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, last 16 years Consolidated or Side Waves from July 2007 to May 2023. This side waves formed like a Channel Pattern. Which means, market price range between Two Parallel lines. Connect these up's and downs respectively (1,3,5) and (2,4). In 5th point market Breakout above the Channel Pattern, so hereafter market expect significantly Wild movement in Uptrend. And Channel Width is the Target Size. So if you Buy and hold in May 2023, then Sell in July 2024. We got the 243 % PROFIT within 14 months only. This is one of better opportunity Trade in Stock Market by using Patterns Technique. One more Target inside this Channel Pattern. Falling Channel Pattern formed inside this Channel. It connect (a,c,e) and (b,d). In March 2022 Breakout & Buy in point of 'e', Sell in June 2022. Got the 66 % PROFIT. So TOTALLY 310% PROFIT within 29 months in this Stock only. For example if you are invested 10 Lakhs, then you would have received 30.10 Lakhs PROFIT.
TSE:7011
by SasikumarMani
EURJPY Fool-Surprise Reverse Ok ?EURJPY direction. Well, I am excited the algos pushed the price 0.2% higher in compariston to yesterday, we are still due to dump 1-2% to the downside. Lets Go. Accumulate more and more shorts, this is the only direction. THIS IS JUST MY PLAN - NOT AN ADVICE. No stop loss at this point, after loosing crucial levels, we can expect JPY central bank interventionm at any point, and - I am surprised idiot traders are still pushing the price in wrong directon still. Take profit: 168.13 Stop loss: NONE.
Short
by AdiVV
Macro Monday 42 ~ Japan Business Sentiment (ReutersTankanIndex)Macro Monday 42 Japan Reuters Tankan Index – Business Sentiment (Released this Wednesday 17th April 2024) Firstly lets briefly cover the Japan Consumer Sentiment we covered last week, Japan Consumer Sentiment Last week we covered the Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which provided a great indication of how the Japanese consumer is feeling. The Japan CCI surveys have a reliable 90.6% response rate from c. 8,400 households. The Japan CCI came in at 39.5 for March last week which was the highest reading in 5 years and demonstrates a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022. Any figure below 50 on the Japan CCI is pessimistic however historically the index has only ever rose above 50 briefly twice. We discussed how this is due to many factors such as the Japanese being conservative and risk averse. To remedy this and help find a threshold, I used the historical average level of 40.86 as an indicator of above average historical consumer sentiment (however still pessimistic). If we break above the 40.86 level in coming months this would be a good signal of improving sentiment, essentially that the Japanese consumer is less pessimistic than on average, however still pessimistic. Japan Business Sentiment This week we are looking at the Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) which is essentially Japan’s Business Sentiment Indicator. Why is Business Sentiment in Japan an important macro-economic metric to observe? 1.Japan’s manufacturing output for 2021 was valued at $1.025 trillion USD, making it one of the world’s largest manufacturers. The country is known for its high-quality production in areas such as automobiles, electronics, and robotics 2.Japan contributes c.7.2% towards the world’s total manufacturing output, showcasing its critical role in the global supply chain and its influence on international trade. 3.Japan makes up 8% of total global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population. 4.Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China Now that we understand that Japan is one of the major manufacturing and economic hubs of the world, lets now try to understand how optimistic or pessimistic Japan businesses are feeling at present. The Japan RTI is collated from data from major leading Japanese companies. 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures advise of improving (above 0) or worsening conditions (below 0). For reference the 200 non-manufacturing companies include the likes of services, retail, finance, and real estate. The Chart You will see, as outlined on the chart, that the Japan RTI is made up of 4 sub categories: 1. Business Conditions (current) 2. Business Outlook (future quarter) 3. Large manufacturing outlook 4. Non-manufacturing sector These subcategories can help in understanding the nuances of sentiment in Japan among different sectors and are crucial for a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s business environment. We might cover these individually when the data is released this Wednesday. I am particularly interested in the future quarter business outlook. Reading the chart Above 0 = Business Optimism Below 0 = Business Pessimism 0 = Neutral The Japan RTI Business sentiment is currently above 0, firmly in the optimistic zone at 10. You can see that we have been rejected from the 12 – 13 level three times since 2022 (Aug 2022, Aug 2023 & Dec 2023). If we break above this level it will be the first time in over 2 years that Japan Business sentiment reached this high. Expectations for the coming release this Wednesday are for a reduction to 9. So expectations are low for this weeks release. Japan Consumer Sentiment has risen from a major low that was established in Nov 2022 and has since been on a significant up trend moving from 28.6 to 39.5. Whilst still in the pessimistic zone the consumer index moves closer towards the historical sentiment average of 40.86. The Japan RTI Business Sentiment appears to have followed suit rising from a low in Jan 2023 a few months later and is now reaching for recent highs of 12 (current reading of 10 with 9 anticipated this week) Both the Japan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Japan RFI Business Sentiment Index are trending towards higher optimism (or less pessimism) but have a bit more work to do to offer some confirmatory action. We will look at the Japan Flash Composite PMI next week which is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024. This will help add perspective in the form of manufacturing/services data directly relating to New Orders, Output, Employment, Deliveries and Stock. In between now and then I will update the above Japan RTI Business sentiment index this Wednesday and update you on Japan CPI which is released this Friday also (something to watch out for). We will gradually get familiar the macro-economic data that matters across the globe here on Macro Mondays. Again, all these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Thanks for coming along. PUKA
ECONOMICS:JPRTI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 41 ~ Japan Consumer Confidence Index Macro Monday 41 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Released Tuesday 9th April 2024) Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China, contributing about 8% of global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population. For such an impactful populace, lets see how the Japanese consumer confidence levels are looking at present. I promise you, it is very different to the western sentiment indicators. The Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey is conducted monthly and covers 8,400 households in Japan, which includes 5,376 households of two or more persons and 3,024 one-person households. The survey has an unusually high response rate, with 90.6% of households responding in the latest survey. The index is made up of a sub set of Consumer Perception Indices: These sub-indices cover: 1. Overall livelihood: Views of current living standards 2. Income growth: Expectations for income increase 3. Employment: Outlook on job security & availability. 4. Willingness to buy durable goods: Likelihood of purchasing high-value items. The most incredible thing about the Japan CCI is that historically it has only risen above 50 indicating consumer optimism 3 times. Two of these occurrences were in the early 90’s and one was in the mid 00’s. All 3 were very brief with a reversion to pessimistic consumer sentiment in the months that followed. Since March 2006 the Japan CCI has remained below 50 indicating a prevailing pessimism amongst consumers in Japan. You might be wondering why are consumers in Japan are so pessimistic about their circumstances and economy. Historically, Japan has faced periods of economic stagnation, deflationary pressures, and slow wage growth, which are known to dampen consumer sentiment. Additionally, the aging population and concerns about the future of social security and pensions may also contribute to a underlying cautious outlook. Moreover, cultural factors might play a role; Japanese consumers are known for their saving habits and risk-averse nature, which can reflect in a more conservative CCI. It’s also important to note that the CCI is relative and can be influenced by the consumers’ expectations and experiences, which may differ from those in other countries. In essence, while the CCI below 50 might suggest a pessimistic view, it’s a complex interplay of economic conditions, age factors, cultural tendencies, and historical events that shape consumer confidence in Japan. The Chart As evident on the chart below and from the commentary above, the Japan CCI has only risen above 50 level into the optimistic sentiment zone three time in history, thus I have taken the historic average reading of 40.86 as a mid-level to create a line from which we can determine above and below average consumer confidence in Japan (based on the historical average). I understand that this approach isn’t a perfect as the average level will change over time as new data is released, however we can use the 40.86 level as a rough guide for above and below average historical sentiment (not as a measure of optimism vs pessimism). This level can help us identify when Japanese consumers are less or more pessimistic than their historical average level. Interestingly we are at the 39.1 critical level at present and the release tomorrow is an important release due to being at this important threshold level. We have been rejected from from the current level c.39.1 level twice in the recent past and if rise above 39.2, it will be the first time in 5 years that sentiment has risen above this level. 39.2 Level Significance ▫️ In Jan 2020 a fast rising and improving sentiment was rejected from the 39.1 level, and turned harshly lower to 21.6 in April 2020 (over 4 months). ▫️ Sentiment thereafter made a stark rise again only to be rejected a 2nd time from the 39.2 level in Nov 2021, with sentiment thereafter dropping to 28.6 in Nov 2022 (over 12 months). ▫️ Since Nov 2022 the Japan CCI has risen from 28.6 to 39.1 for Feb 2024. This will be the 3rd time since Jan 2020 that we have hit this level. We have been rejected twice from c.39.2 level over the past 4 years thus a break above this level would be a significant move in the right direction for sentiment in Japan. Whilst a reading above 39.2 is ultimately still pessimistic as it is below the 50 level, we would still be making new highs not seen since May 2019 when we fell lower than 39.2 for the first time (since rising above it in Jan 2015) If the Japan CCI can make a definitive move above this 39.2 level, I would see this as a positive indication of improving sentiment in Japan (in other words less pessimistic). If we thereafter made a move above the historical average of 40.86, I would view this as another significant positive confirmation of a less pessimistic consumer in Japan. Given the age, cultural and monetary differences between Japan and other countries, particularly those in the west, we can only look for thresholds of lessor pessimism using the Japan CCI as since March 2006 the Japan CCI has remained below 50 indicating a prevailing pessimism amongst consumers in Japan. The chart still informs of us of a lot and provides clear thresholds that we can pay attention to to gauge consumer sentiment in Japan. As always the beauty of the above chart and any others I share is that you can go onto my TradingView ideas page and press update, and the chart will update you with the most recent data release, informing you at a glance how the data looks on the chart with a nice visual guide with all the above thresholds easily visible. Hope it helps you stay visually informed at a glance with a click of a button. Thanks all PUKA
ECONOMICS:JPCCI
by PukaCharts
USD/JPY: JPY Struggles Amid Global TensionsUSD/JPY: JPY Struggles Amid Global Tensions The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges in gaining momentum against the US Dollar (USD) as it retreats in the European session. European equity market optimism hampers the JPY's safe-haven appeal, while the USD sees positive traction ahead of the awaited FOMC meeting. Technical Analysis: The JPY faces resistance at 148.500 within the Fibonacci range of 61.8% to 78.6%, coupled with a potential bearish channel's dynamic trendline. Stochastic RSI divergence signals caution, and the price is poised for a potential bearish move. Market Dynamics: Global uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East, could limit JPY losses, supported by the Bank of Japan's recent hawkish stance. The looming uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cuts may restrain aggressive USD bets, keeping the USD/JPY pair in check. Looking Ahead: Traders await key US economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings, for potential market direction amid the central bank event risk. The interplay of technical signals and geopolitical factors shapes the outlook for the JPY in the near term. Our Idea: Below 150.75 look for further downside with 145.00 & 142.00 as targets.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution..USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution Fuel Bearish Momentum The USD/JPY pair continues to experience losses as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, influenced by the dovish outlook presented by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the first quarter of 2024. The recent decline gained momentum on Friday, triggered by softer domestic consumer inflation data, amplifying uncertainty regarding the potential timing of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening its ultra-loose policy. Minutes from the BoJ's October monetary policy meeting further indicated a commitment to maintaining the current accommodative stance, putting additional downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Market Developments: As the USD/JPY pair trades lower around 140.70 during the early European session on Thursday, attention is drawn to the psychological areas of 141.00 and 141.600, which now pose as immediate resistance levels. The next significant barrier is identified at the 142.00 level, suggesting that the pair faces an uphill struggle in its attempt to reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment. Technical Analysis and Correlation: Building on our technical analysis and considering the correlation with the EUR/USD pairs, the outlook for USD/JPY points towards a continuation of the bearish momentum. The dovish Fed stance and cautious BoJ approach contribute to the prevailing downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, emphasizing the potential for further losses in the near term. Looking Ahead: The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the BoJ's policy tightening and the dovish tone from the Fed are likely to remain key drivers for the USD/JPY pair. Traders and investors will closely monitor any developments in monetary policy discussions and economic indicators that could offer insights into the future direction of the currency pair. As the USD/JPY pair faces resistance levels and grapples with the repercussions of dovish central bank outlooks, the bearish momentum seems poised to persist. The interplay between the Federal Reserve's stance and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach sets the stage for continued volatility in the pair. As market participants navigate these dynamics, the focus remains on potential opportunities arising from the evolving conditions in the currency markets. Our preference Short positions below 143.00 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Advantages of Haiken Ashi over traditional Japanese candlesHaiken Ashi candles are a very popular type of charts used in Forex trading. Unlike traditional Japanese candles, the Haiken Ashi chart uses a special algorithm to process the price data, which makes it easier to read trends and market direction. Benefits: What are the benefits of using Haiken Ashi candles? First of all, such charts allow us to detect market trends more clearly and easily read. In addition, Haiken Ashi charts allow us to more easily determine entry and exit points of positions, as well as determine stop loss and take profit. Construction of Haiken Ashi candles: Let's start by defining what Haiken Ashi candles actually are. These candles differ from traditional Japanese candles in many ways. First of all, in Haiken Ashi charts, the opening price of each new candle is the average of the opening and closing prices of the previous candle. The closing price, on the other hand, is the average of four values: the opening price, the closing price, the highest price and the lowest price. As a result, the opening and closing price of subsequent candles lags behind traditional Japanese candles. Advantages of Haiken Ashi: How can we use Haiken Ashi candles in Forex trading? First of all, it allows us to detect market trends more clearly and easily read. As a result, we can more easily determine entry and exit points for positions, and determine stop loss and take profit. Strategies: Trend strategy - involves using Haiken Ashi candles to identify market trends. For an uptrend, we wait for a series of green candles to appear, while for a downtrend, we wait for a series of red candles to appear. Once the trend is identified, we can open a position according to its direction. Double candlestick strategy - involves waiting for the occurrence of two consecutive Haiken Ashi candles of opposite colors. When a red candle is followed by a green candle, this is a buy signal. On the other hand, when a green candle is followed by a red candle, it is a sell signal. Inner candle strategy - involves waiting for the appearance of the Haiken Ashi candle, the body of which is completely contained in the body of the previous candle. When such a situation occurs, we can open a position according to the direction of the trend. Reversal candle strategy - consists in waiting for the appearance of a long red candle after a series of green candles or a long green candle after a series of red candles. The appearance of such a candle may indicate a reversal of the trend, which gives a signal to open a position against the existing trend. Veiling candle strategy - involves waiting for the appearance of a large Haiken Ashi candle, the body of which completely obscures the body of the previous candle. In this case, we can open a position according to the direction of the trend. In conclusion, Haiken Ashi candles are a tool that can be very useful in Forex technical analysis. With this tool, we can more easily detect market trends, determine entry points. On the other hand, Haiken Ashi candles are an addition to a set of various indicators for technical analysis. In our Manticore Invesmtents Scalping strategy, we combine Haiken Ashi candles with a strategy based on RSI and Bollinger Bands. In the next parts of the tutorials, let's describe the use of RSI and BB.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Manticore_Investments