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Does the pullback in the USDJPY have legs? The US dollar has retreated against its major trading pairs over the past two weeks, but notably, the USDJPY has seen one of the most interesting pullbacks. After peaking on July 14, the USDJPY has fallen more than 4% from a peak just below 139.500. The 2-week weakening streak may continue as the sentiment from the previous FOMC meeting has been conceived as mildly negative for the USD. The Federal Reserve increased its interest rates by 75-basis-points for the second consecutive time on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell stated that a slower hike pace is a possibility, suggesting that the hawkishness may have already passed its peak. This sentiment sent the USDJPY on a sharp correction to the downside. The perspective on this pair on the daily timeframe also suggests that the USDJPY may continue its downward trajectory as the price closed below the 50-day moving average, closing in on 133.300 after creating a low at 132.504. Together with the Donchian Channel Fibonacci Zone, we can see that the price fails to stay inside the blue zone after hitting 138.879 high, breaking below the grey zone and creating a three-day consolidation range between 137.422 and 136.086 before falling inside the orange zone indicating a possible downtrend. With this indicator, the price inside the blue zone is considered an uptrend zone, and the grey zone is considered a ranging zone, while the orange zone is considered a downtrend zone. These Fibonacci lines/zones can also act as either support or resistance levels, and can be used by traders as entry and exit points.
by BlackBull_Markets
2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse Pivot Point: 137.6 Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8 Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
2022/7/11 15:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 139.0 level , its next support zone is at 140.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
2022/7/7 16:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 140.0 level , its next support zone is at 141.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
Really important monthly close for USDJPYAs deflationary forces are taking over and bonds are rising, USDJPY is a key FX pair to be watching. Why? Because many players dumped Yen and their JGBs, as they expected higher and higher inflation and bond yields in the US. Now that US rates are coming down, JPY is becoming more attractive. Not only that, but JGBs are becoming more attractive as there is a smaller supply out there relative to a few months ago, while there are already lots of traders/funds who have been betting that the Japanese bond market would collapse. As deflation is coming back and Japan really has all the characteristics of a deflationary economy, buying some JGBs and Yen wouldn't be a bad idea. USDJPY swept a major high a few days ago, and then it swept it again today. A second failure and a monthly / quarterly close below that high, could be a major sign that more downside could follow in the short term. In the long term I am fairly certain that the USD will appreciate a lot more than the JPY for multiple reasons, therefore this is just a short term play. Anything from 131 and down to 125 is possible for USDJPY in Q3-Q4 2022, especially when the Fed is forced to reverse course and cut rates & resume QE. For quite some time I believe that CPI prints will be negative MoM. I also believe that the 2022 CPI print will be 4%, and that next June the YoY print will be 0 or negative. All that in the US of course, and of course I could be wrong. We could also see deflationary pressures take place and the USD rise against most currencies during that deflationary period / episode. Maybe we have a major crash at some point, one that would lead the Fed to take action once again, something that could send the dollar a lot lower. In case the market continues higher, and closes this week and next week above 135.7, then it is safe to assume that we'll be going higher regardless of the macro environment. Japan is lacking energy and food production, while it has worse demographics and debt that the US. Therefore it is very hard to see how the Yen doesn't depreciate against the US dollar. This means that every dip below in the 125-131 region is an opportunity to go long.
by BitcoinMacro
How much of the Japanese stock market does the BOJ own?The Bank of Japan (BOJ), unlike any of its peers, has become a huge player in the country’s stock market. What began as a monetary policy experiment has turned into what some economists describe as a caveat for policymakers about the extent of intervention a central bank may take in propping up capital markets. Over the past decade, the BOJ managed to gobble up 80% of Japan’s exchange-traded funds (ETFs), accounting for about 7% of the country’s $6 trillion stock market, according to Bloomberg. Based on the Government Pension Investment Fund’s annual report for fiscal 2020 ended March 2021, the government held more than 47 trillion yen worth of Japanese stocks. GPIF is Japan’s largest public fund investor by assets. While ETFs in other parts of the world are used to monitor the performance of certain stocks according to industries, Japan has used its ETF investments to control inflation with the goal of spurring economic growth. The BOJ started employing this strategy in the later part of 2010 when it began acquiring shares listed on Japanese exchanges via ETFs as part of its quantitative and qualitative easing program. The program to buy ETFs began as a part of the central bank’s purchase of Japanese government bonds, until the BOJ tested stock-fund buying, hoping to boost stock prices, which in turn encouraged companies to spend more on expansions, create more jobs and push inflation higher. However, six years into the ETF-buying program, the BOJ still wasn’t able to reach its inflation target, prompting Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to introduce negative interest rates to prevent a strong yen that was hurting the country’s export-heavy economy. As it stands, the Japanese yen is trading at 130 per USD, a 20-year low for the currency, and could be heading for weaker territory without intervention. While a weaker yen has been welcomed by Kuroda, Reuters reported that Japan could be considering currency intervention to stem further weakness in the yen. The Reuters report helped the USDJPY push above a month’s long resistance of 129 per USD. Aside from stocks, the BOJ has also racked up large amounts of Japanese government bonds totaling 521 trillion yen as of the end of 2021. The level of bond holdings, however, has fallen for the first time in 13 years as the BOJ sought to taper its bond-buying program due to concerns of a looming financial risk. Where to from here? Fast forward to 2022, the BOJ is still stuck with a huge amount of bonds and stocks that the central bank may not be able to easily decrease as a sell-off would have adverse effects on the country’s capital markets. “The bank was surrounded by dead ends. They were cornered into a place where they couldn’t do anything else,” Izuru Kato, president at Totan Research, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. Back in 2019, Kuroda defended the BOJ’s ETF-buying program, dismissing concerns that it is distorting influence. "At present, I don’t think our ETF buying is having any effect on market function… But we continue to watch out to make sure there are no negative side effects,” Kuroda was quoted by the Financial Times as saying. Most recently in March, as concerns over its stock holdings grew, the BOJ governor said it was premature to debate an exit from quantitative easing including how the central bank could pare its ETF holdings as inflation has yet to sustainably hit 2%. Kuroda had also hinted that in the event the BOJ decides to wind down its stock holdings, it will employ a strategy that would minimize the BOJ’s losses and any financial market disruption. "They cannot sell now. Shares will fall for sure... The negative impact would be pretty huge,” Tetsuo Seshimo, portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management, said earlier this month.
by BlackBull_Markets
Will the yen hit 150 against the greenback?The Japanese yen fell to a seven-year low of 125 against the US dollar on Monday as the Bank of Japan continued easing its monetary policy further widening the gap with the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone. But instead of seeing it as a threat to the Japanese economy, the BOJ reiterated that a weaker yen would have positive effects on pushing Japan’s GDP higher. BOJ’s divergence from Fed The US central bank recently raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and signalled more rate hikes in the coming months to tame rising inflation. The US consumer inflation rate skyrocketed to a four-year high of 7.9% in February, prompting the Fed to take a more hawkish stance despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical uncertainties. Conversely, the BOJ continued to loosen its monetary policy, reiterating that it would maintain interest rates at ultra-low levels to support Japan’s economic recovery and as inflation stays below its 2% target. The central bank also offered to purchase an unlimited amount of government bonds from Monday through Thursday this week at 0.25%. The offer is for debts with maturities of more than five years and up to 10 years. The move is one of the BOJ’s attempts to contain rising bond yields despite US Treasury yields reaching new multi-year highs. Adding pressure to the yen The measure further weighed on the yen on Monday, with economists from ING Bank expecting upside risks to prevail beyond 125. They said "130 is well within reach in the near term unless the bond environment improves.” A depreciation in the Japanese yen would drive up the costs of imports, ultimately hurting households as it would increase the costs of imported goods and other goods for consumption. It also pushed Japan’s core inflation to a two-year high of 0.8% in March, quicker than market forecasts. Preference for a weaker currency While many economies beef up efforts to boost the value of their currencies, Japan has been aiming to devalue its currency to gain a competitive advantage in foreign trade. A weak yen will make Japan-made goods more competitive overseas and increase profits that Japanese companies make in foreign markets. It would also lift services exports and increase net income receipts from abroad when converted into yen. Back in January, the BOJ estimated that a 10% drop in the yen would boost Japan’s gross domestic product by about 1%. In the final months of 2021, Japan’s GDP rose 4.6% year over year, lower than its previous forecast for a 5.4% rise. Fitch Ratings expects Japan’s inflation at 1.8% this year on the back of higher energy prices and yen depreciation. Preventing another 1998 yen volatility As the yen continues to fall against the greenback, the markets are closely watching for a recurrence of a wild rebound that occurred in the USDJPY in 1998 at the height of the Asian financial crisis. At the time, the US dollar fell by almost 15% versus the yen from its previous peak. That slump was preceded by a three-year yen depreciation as Japanese authorities believed the yen was overvalued. Will the yen hit 150 against the greenback? The question of whether the yen will reach 150 versus the US dollar is more of a when as the Fed maintains its hawkish stance and as the BOJ is poised to keep its loose monetary policy setting in the medium term. This would further widen the gap between their policies, sending the yen lower as Japan continues to book current account deficits due to a jump in oil import prices.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets
EURJPY | Euro Japanese Yen SHORTWeek Ahead The earnings season enters one of its busiest phases in the coming week, with Apple and Microsoft reporting quarterly results, while central banks in the US and Canada will be deciding on monetary policy. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be keenly watched, as well as Q4 GDP updates from the US, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, the Philippines, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Other key data to follow include US PCE prices, personal income and outlays; Eurozone business survey; China industrial profits; and Australia and New Zealand Q4 inflation data
Short
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Will Santa Deliver A Stronger JPY Before Christmas?​The index that measures the strength of the JPY against a basket of other currencies (JXY) is down approximately 9.5% year-to-date. At the time of writing, the index is valued at 87.97, after spending the past month climbing up from its yearly low of 86.60. Not only was 86.60 a yearly low, but also a four and a half year low (last seen in March 2017) for the JXY. Will Santa deliver a stronger JPY before Christmas? Two important economic reports are set to influence the strength of the JPY and subsequently the JXY over this coming week. The first, released on Wednesday, is the Monetary Policy Minutes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), covering its meeting last week. The board members’ opinions will be noted against the Bank’s decision to rein in some of its pandemic-related spending but remain ultra-accommodative in every other sense. In particular, it will be interesting to see how the board members talk about the possibility of inflation in the country accelerating to 0.4%, which has been forecast. The second important economic report this week, Japan’s Inflation YoY to November, is scheduled to be confirmed just after midday Friday. An inflation rate of 0.4% is hardly likely to set off alarm bells with BoJ officials and instigate a more hawkish position. But some acknowledgement should be necessary. Any deviation from the forecast could relay into some JPY trading opportunities. GBPJPY or USDJPY? The upside to the JPY in relation to the GBP could be a little more potent than against the USD. Case in point, after the Bank of England, surprised (half) the market last week Friday with a rate hike, the GBPJPY has since given up its immediately preceding 1.3% appreciation. The predicted choppy week leading up to Christmas might also provide some motivation to buy into the JPY against the GBP, but unlikely to do so against the USD, as the risk-off environment should spread amongst both these safe havens currencies.
TVC:JXY
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY | SHORTEntry Range: 114.076 - 114.181 Avg . 114.152 (RRR: 2) 1st. Profit Target: 113.877 2nd. Profit Target: 113.463 Stop Loss: 114.291 HOW TO ENTER MY TRADES 1. Ladder your entries. You'll want to ladder place your orders exponentially within the Entry Range to the point your RRR is atleast 1.5 if fully filled. 2. Only first touches are valid. If price is rebounding back into the entry zone after either the profit target or stop loss was hit the entry zone is no longer valid
Short
by Event0011
1
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons 1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago 2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency 3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices. 4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices. 5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you. Good Lock, Wish you money With respect Ali Sabbaghi ziwox.com
Short
by Alisabbaghi
USDJPY DAILYUSD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 26.08% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.83 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.43% higher than yesterday and 19.25% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.78% higher than yesterday and 27.31% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias. Even as the DXY Index’s rally has paused, USD/JPY rates have continued to surge higher. Looking at USD/JPY from the weekly timeframe, there is a reasonable basis to believe that we’re still in the early innings of a longer-term bullish breakout. USD/JPY rates are above their weekly 4-, 8-, and 13-EMA envelope, which is in bullish sequential order. Weekly MACD has just issued a bullish crossover while above its signal line, and weekly Slow Stochastics have started to return to overbought territory. Near-term resistance may soon be approaching in the form of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 low/2015 high range at 114.200, but any pullback from this level henceforth would necessarily be viewed as a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity – especially as US equity markets have started to breakout higher.
Short
by AbdallaAmgad
Elliott Wave Analysis: NIKKEI Remains BullishHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about Japanese Index NIKKEI 225 in which we see very clear bullish pattern. As you can see, NIKKEI made an A-B-C corrective decline from the highs and the main reason why we think it's a correction within uptrend is because of a triangle within wave B in the middle. We know that triangles cannot occur in wave 2, so it must be wave B as part of an A-B-C correction. The Next very important evidence that A-B-C correction is completed is recent five waves up from the lows and we know that a five-wave reversal indicates a change in trend, so NIKKEI will probably stay in the uptrend. However, in EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows, so before we will see a continuation higher, be aware of a corrective slow down with ideal support in the 28800 - 28300 zone. Of course, pullbacks could be even deeper, so count remains valid as long as the price is trading above 27400 May lows. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share the idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
TVC:NI225Long
by ew-forecast
1