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GOLDEN WEEK: Potential nightmare ahead. If you've never heard of the Yen 'flash crash' on 3rd Jan 2019 (after a 4 day bank holiday in Japan), you definitely need to watch this. We have a 10-day bank holiday in Japan in Golden Week. The previous mini-crash was on one day. Loads of retail forex traders were wiped out. Now we're staring at potentially something more than a mini-crash on Yen pairs. What happens during and shortly after the holiday period is that contracts for forex come in, algos react and /JPY ratios head south, like nobody's business. Well, I'm afraid this is your business if you have any /JPY pairs on a live trade. Worse yet if you're long be very careful. AUD pairs were also caught up in the fray as they are affected more by stuff that goes on in Japan. Don't ask me why. LOL. It is what it is. So /AUD pairs can rock north if this thing happens again. Right - I'm not here to scare-monger anything. I'm here to help. I'm bringing knowledge of a potential systematic risk that is approaching. You decide what you do with your trades. I'm not advising anybody to close their /JPY trades. Your decisions and your losses are your own. End off.
by Captain_Walker
1
Making money, another quiet weekAnother quiet week in the foreign exchange market is over. Traders and investors are getting used to calmness. Although each in such conditions behaves differently. Some optimize trading strategies for existing conditions. Others go to emerging markets where volatility is high. Accordingly, the carry trade is back in fashion. You can use temporary imbalances in capital flows for the purpose of speculative earnings. The most obvious trading strategy is buying of developing countries’ currencies with a high-interest rate of the Central Bank in exchange for the currencies of developed countries with a zero or even negative rate so earn on the interest rate differential. Indian rupee and Chinese yuan can be mentioned as the most obvious buying candidates. And you can sell the Japanese yen and the euro. For those who decided to continue to trade the "majors" in the foreign exchange market, we would recommend dramatically increasing the aggressiveness of trading. In the absence of directed movements, even oscillator works as extremely efficient. Another option is to earn money with options. Obviously, the period of ultra-low volatility cannot last forever and sooner or later the markets will “shoot”. In order to make money on it, you can use basic option strategies, for example, buying both put and call options in the hope of a strong move no matter where (options strategy is straddle). Considering the extent to which option premiums have fallen in price, this strategy may well lead to super-profits. Returning to the news background, we note that this week will be pretty calm. Bursts of volatility are possible in yen pairs. The fact is that on Thursday the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy, and on Friday a whole block of important statistical data from Japan will be published (data on the labor market, inflation, industrial production, and retail sales). As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for selling dollar in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying), buying of gold and oil in the commodity markets, in addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Oil Bearish HaramThere's a bearish Harami on daily. Education(HARAM): This pattern consists of a white body and a small black body that is completely inside the range of the white body. If an outline is drawn for the pattern, it looks like a pregnant woman. This is not a coincidence. “Harami” is an old Japanese word for “pregnant”. The white candlestick is “the mother” and the small candlestick is “the baby”. Pattern Requirements and Flexibility The pattern consists of two candlesticks, in which the first day’s white candlestick engulfs the following day’s black candlestick. The first one should be a normal or a long white candlestick. Either the body tops or the body bottoms of the two candlesticks may be at the same level, but whatever the case, the black body should be smaller than the previous white body.
NYMEX:CL1!
by UnknownUnicorn3717994
The Dollar Against the Yen Really Wants to Stay Above 111The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading day on Thursday this week, reaching towards the ¥111.50 price level. Resistance range from this level goes all the way to the ¥112 meaning it will be very interesting to see whether or not the market can break out above that 50 pip range. If in fact it does, that could send this market significantly, at least to the ¥113.50 level. But its important to keep in mind as well that there are several trend lines of resistance I am tracking and only one of them, the one which only stems back to late 2018, has been broken. However, there is little follow through and a bit more action to the upside is required in order to determine that this resistance is no longer meaningful. On the other side, if price action breaks down below the lows of the Wednesday bar, then traders are probably going to look towards the ¥110.75 level, and then possibly even further lower to the level of around ¥110. That said, it’s not until we get the jobs reports numbers that traders can put serious money to action due to the fact that quite bluntly the possibility for an increase in variance, beta, or volatility (pick your terminology) is extraordinarily high given the significantly low levels of volatility traders have suffered from over the past few months across asset classes. This pair tends to be very sensitive to jobs figures, so therefore we need to be very cautious and recognize that we need to give the market at least a couple of hours after that announcement. With that being the case, there isn’t much to do between now and then. However, we need to recognize how the market reacts to those figures once the machines get done trading and traders start to digest the announcement. Quite bluntly, it is most likely the best tactic to be patient and wait until Monday morning to determine if the trade is ready to be executed and to see where price action rests from overnight trading. On the other hand, for those of you who want to trade a little more rapidly, traders could take the chance to wait until 12 PM on the Street in which quite often they will see what the market is going to end up doing anyway.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
USDJPY Sideways Because it Likes Less Steep SupportWhile the Japanese yen had been trading on an upward short-term support line, last week it broke this line. Interestingly enough though, it found another level of support similar to the previous level of support, but just with a bit of a less steep slope. Clearly there is much evidence to suggest that the Japanese yen should be taking a nosedive. Compelling evidence for the contrary as well. But if we are just looking at short-term movement, its clear that for the moment USDJPY prefers a more sideways move as opposed to a strictly long or short move.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Possible CAD/JPY Short position!!SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1-3 days Actions on - A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance @83.93 level and fall to the @82.4 level. In order to enter, the pair needs to be rejected by the Bollinger Band line.... B – Beliefs Market move towards the first Target 1 level @ 82.4 FX:CADJPY Trade Management Entered @ Sign up for mentoring Stop Loss @ Sign up for mentoring Target 1 @ 82.4 Target 2 @ 0. Risk/Reward @ 4.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Join our Tier 1 Mentoring Program TODAY!! twitter.com Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
8
Possible Short position SGD/JPYSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1 Day Actions on - A – Activating Event Currency Pair creating a Double Top . B – Beliefs Market will be rejected at @80.300 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 79.750 FX:EURCAD Trade Management Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation. Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation. Target 1 @79.750 Risk/Reward @ 2:21 Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
AUD/USD - Bearish Resolution Sub 70c Keeps Bears In ChargeAside from the logical talk of the flash crash in the Yen crosses, a key takeaway from today’s rapid sell-off in the Japanese currency, is the massive technical breakout in the AUD/USD. While the precursor to experience further pain ahead was already in place after Wednesday’s close sub 0.70, the outlook has worsened considerably after a run that’s taken the Aussie down more than 200 pips or over 3x its daily range. Analogous to what’s been observed in other markets, the Aussie vs US 5-year bond yield spread does not justify these levels. However, that’s just one force at play here, and with risk so suppressed, the pressure lower in the Aussie emanates by and large via the depressed risk profile seen. Any retest towards 0.70-7050 should find layers upon layers of clustered offers to keep the downside pressure going. The projected target of the current bearish cycle should be found around the 6670 area, as the chart illustrates.
by FlowState
CAD/JPY Short positionSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1 Day Actions on - A – Activating Event Currency Pair creating a Double Top. B – Beliefs Market will be rejected at @84.82 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 84.3 level. FX:CADJPY Trade Management Entered @ 84.82 Stop Loss @ 85.14 Target 1 @84.3 Risk/Reward @ 2:1 Happy trading. Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
4
USD/JPY: Bearish tendencies set to extendSelling on strength should be the main play in this market unless the technical picture is negated. For now, the technicals, with an active downcycle on the hourly, are leading the way. If we think of valuations, the flows should also be JPY positive judging by the depressed risk-off profile this week, coupled with new cycle lows in the US vs Japanese yield spreads. The area highlighted during Dec 5th report at 113.20 found enough of a supply imbalance to revert the short term recovery, with 113.00 (round number and POC) now being targeted ahead of the 112.70 hourly liquidity that lies underneath. It really feels as this is a market that is prone to be sold on strength at every chance one has of engaging of decisions points. If this first attempt fails, watch for 113.40/50 as another major resistance area to engage.
by FlowState
Possible short Position GBP/JPY!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1 Day Actions on - A – Activating Event Currency Pair creating a Double Top . B – Beliefs Market will be rejected at @145.500 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 144.500 level. FX:GBPJPY Trade Management Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation. Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation. Target 1 @144.500 Risk/Reward @ 2:1 Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
USD/JPY has no resistance on TuesdayThe US Dollar found support against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday morning. Namely, the lower trend line of a medium term channel up pattern provided the needed support to stop the recent short lived decline. Moreover, during the morning hours the currency rate passed the 55-hour simple moving average’s resistance at 111.20. The SMA began to provide support shortly afterwards. Meanwhile, the pair faces no notable resistance as far as the 111.80 level, where close by a monthly pivot point is located at. Due to these factors combined, a surge in the upcoming trading sessions could be expected, during which the pair might gain 60 base points.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY daily overviewThere are almost no changes on the USD/JPY currency exchange rate’s hourly chart. Namely, the pair has traded sideways while being supported by the 55-hour SMA and being restricted from surging by the 100-hour SMA. However, note that the 100-hour simple moving average was pierced on early morning of Friday’s trading session. In general, the rate is set to continue trading sideways until it reaches the additional support of the 200-hour SMA and the lower trend line of the medium term ascending pattern.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY finds support in SMAAfter booking a new high level against the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar retreated during the early hours of Monday’s trading session. However, by the middle of the day the currency exchange rate had stopped the decline. Namely, the decline was stopped by the support of the 55-hour simple moving average near the 110.60 mark. Moreover, the currency exchange rate was expected to surge even more in the upcoming trading sessions. The basis for this assumption is the fact that above the currency exchange rate there were no resistance levels up to the 111.30 mark.
by UnknownUnicorn890690