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Macro Monday 42 ~ Japan Business Sentiment (ReutersTankanIndex)Macro Monday 42 Japan Reuters Tankan Index – Business Sentiment (Released this Wednesday 17th April 2024) Firstly lets briefly cover the Japan Consumer Sentiment we covered last week, Japan Consumer Sentiment Last week we covered the Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which provided a great indication of how the Japanese consumer is feeling. The Japan CCI surveys have a reliable 90.6% response rate from c. 8,400 households. The Japan CCI came in at 39.5 for March last week which was the highest reading in 5 years and demonstrates a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022. Any figure below 50 on the Japan CCI is pessimistic however historically the index has only ever rose above 50 briefly twice. We discussed how this is due to many factors such as the Japanese being conservative and risk averse. To remedy this and help find a threshold, I used the historical average level of 40.86 as an indicator of above average historical consumer sentiment (however still pessimistic). If we break above the 40.86 level in coming months this would be a good signal of improving sentiment, essentially that the Japanese consumer is less pessimistic than on average, however still pessimistic. Japan Business Sentiment This week we are looking at the Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) which is essentially Japan’s Business Sentiment Indicator. Why is Business Sentiment in Japan an important macro-economic metric to observe? 1.Japan’s manufacturing output for 2021 was valued at $1.025 trillion USD, making it one of the world’s largest manufacturers. The country is known for its high-quality production in areas such as automobiles, electronics, and robotics 2.Japan contributes c.7.2% towards the world’s total manufacturing output, showcasing its critical role in the global supply chain and its influence on international trade. 3.Japan makes up 8% of total global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population. 4.Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China Now that we understand that Japan is one of the major manufacturing and economic hubs of the world, lets now try to understand how optimistic or pessimistic Japan businesses are feeling at present. The Japan RTI is collated from data from major leading Japanese companies. 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures advise of improving (above 0) or worsening conditions (below 0). For reference the 200 non-manufacturing companies include the likes of services, retail, finance, and real estate. The Chart You will see, as outlined on the chart, that the Japan RTI is made up of 4 sub categories: 1. Business Conditions (current) 2. Business Outlook (future quarter) 3. Large manufacturing outlook 4. Non-manufacturing sector These subcategories can help in understanding the nuances of sentiment in Japan among different sectors and are crucial for a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s business environment. We might cover these individually when the data is released this Wednesday. I am particularly interested in the future quarter business outlook. Reading the chart Above 0 = Business Optimism Below 0 = Business Pessimism 0 = Neutral The Japan RTI Business sentiment is currently above 0, firmly in the optimistic zone at 10. You can see that we have been rejected from the 12 – 13 level three times since 2022 (Aug 2022, Aug 2023 & Dec 2023). If we break above this level it will be the first time in over 2 years that Japan Business sentiment reached this high. Expectations for the coming release this Wednesday are for a reduction to 9. So expectations are low for this weeks release. Japan Consumer Sentiment has risen from a major low that was established in Nov 2022 and has since been on a significant up trend moving from 28.6 to 39.5. Whilst still in the pessimistic zone the consumer index moves closer towards the historical sentiment average of 40.86. The Japan RTI Business Sentiment appears to have followed suit rising from a low in Jan 2023 a few months later and is now reaching for recent highs of 12 (current reading of 10 with 9 anticipated this week) Both the Japan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Japan RFI Business Sentiment Index are trending towards higher optimism (or less pessimism) but have a bit more work to do to offer some confirmatory action. We will look at the Japan Flash Composite PMI next week which is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024. This will help add perspective in the form of manufacturing/services data directly relating to New Orders, Output, Employment, Deliveries and Stock. In between now and then I will update the above Japan RTI Business sentiment index this Wednesday and update you on Japan CPI which is released this Friday also (something to watch out for). We will gradually get familiar the macro-economic data that matters across the globe here on Macro Mondays. Again, all these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Thanks for coming along. PUKA
ECONOMICS:JPRTI
by PukaCharts
2022/7/11 15:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0 Currently: Consolidating at this 139.0 level , its next support zone is at 140.0 Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0 I just started sharing my daily technical analysis of Metals & Forex Market with my indicators on tradingview~ Wish to receive some feedbacks from you! 😊 Btw you can feel free to use our designed indicators!!! Just lemme know if you want it! Follow & like our posts to support us😎! Can’t wait to chat with you more~
Long
by idealcase
NTT DOCOMO INC Analysis (9437)If the market goes down to the area coloured in red , there is a higher probability that price will bounce back up from there ,especially from the two horizontal red lines and the area between them . That's why I think the area coloured in Red respresents the optimal area to buy at for people interested in buying TSE:9437 .I think the two thick horizontal red lines and the area between them represent a strong level which represents an interesting buy area , but even there , it would be better not to enter the market with the full investment in case price drops even lower in the red area , offering a more interesting price to buy at . The buy target would be , untill further notice ,around the green rectangle after buying from the red area . If the price doesn't reach the red area , it would be better to just watch if this stock is strong enough to close significantly, in an upcoming day, above the green rectangle and the black line and then it would be likely to continue up to around the first blue rectangle , with a potential to reach the second , higher, blue rectangle .
9
by StockAnalystPro
Could tonight’s Japanese inflation affect the USDJPY?By Andria Pichidi - November 21, 2018 Japanese inflation data will be out earlier than expected, on Thursday, as Japan is closed on Friday for Labor Thanksgiving Day. The National October CPI is forecast at 1.3% y/y from 1.2% overall, and steady at 1.0% on a core basis. Although the annual inflation has been improving since May, it remains well short of the BoJ’s 2.0% goal. BOJ keeps a close eye on this particular reading and more precisely on the core rate, as it is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, excluding fresh food. This measure will give an indication to BOJ on the lack of prices pressure in Japan due to long lasting ultra-accommodative policy. Japanese inflation is on the upswing however, with sluggish progress in 2018 after it languished at low levels the past 2 years and had fallen a bit in September as well. Hence Japan’s long run of extreme monetary stimulu, once again raised concerns and negative judgements regarding the effect of its policy and the negative interest rates (currently at -0.1%) over Japan’s economy. In the October review of monetary policy and quarterly forecast update, BoJ left policy on hold but trimmed inflation projections. The short-term rate remained at -0.1% and 10-year rates at near 0%. The vote by the board was by a 7-2 majority, also as expected. Core consumer inflation projection for the current fiscal year ending in March 2019 was trimmed to 0.9% from 1.1% previously forecast, and to 1.4% from 1.5% for fiscal year 2019-20. Therefore, even in the case of a positive surprise on tonight’s Japanese inflation data report, BOJ is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Hence despite the sluggish progress and the strong Japanese economic growth, if the report is close to expectations, BOJ is likely to remain in ultra-accommodative mode for an extended period even as the other core central banks remove accommodation (Fed) or cut QE (ECB). This argument can also be justified by the BOJ remarks in the last meeting, in which BoJ warned that chronic ultra-accommodative policy “could destabilize the financial system,” although these risks were not judged to be significant at the present juncture. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest,” and that announcement again drove home that projection. In the forex market, a higher than expected reading tonight should be taken as positive/bullish for JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for JPY. However, in the last weeks, the multitude of risks from trade tensions to Brexit concerns and Italy’s budget rejection have resulted in the risk-sensitive Yen’s strength. Therefore the CPI outcome is unlikely to cause high volatility Yen crosses. Meanwhile, if we turn our attention to USDJPY’s fundamentals, i.e. yield differentials and the associated contrast between Fed and BoJ policy paths, they remain supportive for the pair although periodic episodes of risk aversion have been an intermittent offsetting bearish force. Hence, in the short term, a positive outcome in the CPI, could boost Yen, and therefore we could see USDJPY retesting immediate Support between the 112.63-112.75 area , which coincides with yesterday’s low and the confluence of the 20-period SMA in the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fib. retracement level since November 12 peak. Further losses could turn attention towards November’s bottom. Resistance holds at 50% Fib. level, at 113.25 . A break of this barrier could shift the pair to the 113.50-113.60 area. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission
Long
by HotForex
Welcome to the drop - USDJPYSo many of us out there wish to truly capitalise on the huge jumps and troughs out there on all major pairs. My firm belief is that we are about to continue into unprecedented low field price and that the worst is still yet to come. Dont forget what happens everytime an ECB or FED talking head gets on the screen....Generally the market falls as all they ever promote is more stupid uncertainty or a sheer view as to how thick they truly are concerning quantative measures for economic stabilty growth and future prowess. Right now for Binary take that USDJPY down for the next 4/5 hours with 15 minute expiration positions. Check out the other analysis posted up for the safer route via GOLD. Feedback and ideas welcome! adam@stbinary.com if you want me personally ;)
Short
by STBinary