Japanese Equities Rebound Post Election ShocksJapan’s October 28 elections delivered a surprise to the market with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s loss of the majority in the parliament. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba now faces the challenge of securing a majority in the 465-member Diet, Japan’s national legislature, in the coming weeks.
This political uncertainty has impacted the outlook for Japanese equities. Typically, such instability would weaken the equity market; however, a combination of a depreciating Yen and a "buy the news" rebound after two weeks of decline has led to a market recovery, with the Nikkei-225 rising 3.7% since the election results were announced.
This environment presents tactical opportunities for savvy investors, such as leveraging spreads between the concentrated large-cap stocks in the Nikkei-225 and the broader Japanese equity market through the AMEX:DFJ ETF.
Political Uncertainty a Concern for the Nikkei-225
Japan's October 28 election resulted in no party securing a majority, with the LDP and Komeito losing 64 seats, leading to a hung parliament. This uncertainty has raised concerns over the Nikkei-225, as the lack of a stable government could hinder decisive economic policy.
Historically, political instability tends to undermine investor confidence in Japanese equities, and analysts are now concerned about the ability of a weakened government to implement coherent economic policy.
Following the result, the Yen dropped to a three-month low of 153.88 per dollar, reflecting investor nervousness.
The Nikkei-225 rallied 3.7%, driven by a weaker Yen benefiting exporters like Toyota and Nissan. Analysts expect continued market volatility until a stable coalition is formed, with specific concerns around delayed fiscal measures and economic reforms that could weigh on investor confidence.
PM Ishiba’s Hawkish Tone Likely to be Tempered Even in Case of Victory
Shigeru Ishiba, recently appointed as Prime Minister, has expressed his intention to remain in office, despite facing a challenging re-election campaign after the disappointing outcome of his snap election. Analysts like David Roche from Quantum Strategy and Masahika Loo from State Street suggest his re-election prospects are slim.
PM Ishiba has historically supported the Bank of Japan's rate hike strategy and voiced concerns over yen depreciation. However, in light of the election results, his party may need to adopt a more populist stance to retain support, embracing dovish monetary policies and increased social spending.
Additionally, PM Ishiba has pledged to introduce a larger stimulus plan in response to the election outcome. This expanded stimulus could conflict with the BoJ’s monetary policy goals, likely prolonging yen weakness.
Weaker Yen Supports Nikkei-225
The weaker yen has been a key driver in Nikkei-225's recent stellar performance. A depreciating yen makes Japanese exports more competitive, directly benefiting major exporters such as Toyota and Nissan, which saw gains of over 4% on 28/Oct (Mon).
Mint Finance previously highlighted the inverse relationship between the Yen and the Nikkei-225.
Recently, however, this correlation has broken, with both the Nikkei-225 and the Yen declining over the past two weeks. Although post-election performance has brought a modest recovery in this relationship, fundamental concerns persist. With the Bank of Japan holding rates steady, the Yen is expected to weaken further. The outlook for the Nikkei-225 is less clear, as it benefits from a weaker Yen yet faces pressures from ongoing political uncertainty.
Key Technical Levels
Nikkei-225 is trading just above its long-term moving averages which have acted as support after being tested multiple times over the past few months. With the Nikkei-225 in a rising channel and above a support level, price may have some upside. However, the R1 pivot level at 40,525 may act as resistance as it previously has.
Nikkei-225 is currently in a price range dominated by buyers over the past month. Overall volume activity shows buyers have remained dominant according to the accumulation/distribution indicator. In case Nikkei-225 breaks out from this range, it is likely to see increased selling. This could lead to a period of consolidation at present levels, especially given the political uncertainty.
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Tailwinds from the weakening Yen intertwine with headwinds from the political uncertainty for Nikkei-225. Until clarity on economic outlook arises, the Nikkei-225 is likely to remain volatile. Due to the recent diverging performance, the effectiveness of a Yen hedge on the Nikkei-225 has decreased. While the Yen may continue to weaken, it is not likely to have a proportional impact on strengthening the Nikkei-225.
However, a weakening Yen also favours large cap stocks that comprise the Nikkei-225 relative to smaller companies such as those comprising the WisdomTree Japan Smallcap Fund ETF (DFJ), which provides broad exposure to Japan equities. DFJ is geared towards small cap firms and excludes the 300 largest companies by market cap. It also caps the maximum weightage of any single sector to 25% ensuring that the index is not impacted by any single sector.
By comparison, the Nikkei-225 index is a price weighted index which tilts its exposure towards expensive stocks, especially those from large companies. It also provides exposure to the technology sector in Japan which has outperformed recently due to the burgeoning chip industry. Mint Finance covered the breakdown of the index in a previous paper .
The spread between the Nikkei-225 and DFJ ETF has continued to rise over the past two years alongside the Japanese equity rally, though there have been periods of consolidation in between which small caps have managed to to catch up. The peaks in the ratio have been at times when the Nikkei-225 reached a new all-time-high while periods of consolidation following the peak have favoured the small cap equities.
This view benefits investors in case the Nikkei-225 retests its all-time-high in the near future. It also benefits from the fundamental drivers that favour the firms comprising the Nikkei-225 compared to the ETF.
Investors can express a view by buiding a long position in Nikkei-225 using CME Group futures and a short position in DFJ ETF. Nikkei-225 Futures on CME are available in a dollar denominated form, which negates currency impact from the weakening Yen.
For example, a long position in CME Group Nikkei-225 futures provides exposure to a notional value of USD 197,900 (USD 5 x 39,580 index price as of 30/Oct). This would require an extremely large position on the ETF leg to balance out the notional. Alternatively, investors can utilize the newly launched Micro Nikkei (USD) futures which are 1/10th the size of the standard Nikkei 225 futures contract with a notional value of USD 19,790 (USD 0.5 x 39,580).
Micro Nikkei (USD) futures are geared towards smaller notional sizes which allows for granular hedging and spreads as well as enhanced capital efficiency.
Since their launch on October 28, the contracts have experienced rapid growth and adoption. Over the past two days, 1,370 Micro Nikkei (USD) contracts and 4,141 Micro Nikkei (JPY) contracts have been traded. The contracts also shows a tight bid-ask spread and a liquid market, supporting capital-efficient trading.
The following hypothetical trade setup consists of long 1 x Micro Nikkei (USD) futures expiring in December and short 265 shares of WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Fund with a reward to risk ratio of 1.33x.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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Japanesestocks
NIKKEI 2nd phase of rally starting.NIKKEI (NI225) couldn't have given us a more reliable bullish continuation signal that our last call (August 14, see chart below), as it hit exactly our 39000 Target and then pulled-back:
The rejection took place on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the, above 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on October 13 2023, which is the Megaphone fractal we used last time to come up with the buy signal.
So far, the new correction almost reached the 0.5 Fib, so it is good enough for a buy, considering also the fact that the 1D RSI hit again the Symmetrical Pivot Zone, which is where the late October 2023 decline bottomed and started a new rally to the Megaphone's top.
As a result, we turn bullish again today, targeting 42450 (the July 11 High).
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MURATA _ Next Target +30% _ Rising Wedge Pattern Top at JPY 4600Rising Wedge Pattern forming and Break All Time High in Murata Manufacturing. So Next Target is Wedge Pattern Top (or) Resistance line of Wedge Pattern. And Offering a Chance to Make PROFIT of +30 % or more.
Support me; I want to Help People Make PROFIT all over the "World."
NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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NIKKEI Is it worth buying here?Nikkei (NI225) is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time as a Resistance, following the bearish break-out on April 15, which was its first breach since November 02 2023. This is a very consistent behavioral pattern with both of the previous two corrections of the 2-year Channel Up pattern.
As you can see, reclaiming the 1D MA50 wasn't enough for either correction to make the index resume the uptrend, even closing above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level didn't guarantee it. What did form the index' bottom however, was the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold limit (green circle).
At the moment the index is rebounding off such an RSI test. This means that this time we may see the recovery much earlier, so once we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 46000 (Channel's top and below the minimum +31.73% of Bullish Legs patterns).
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NIKKEI is starting a new rally.Last time we looked at Nikkei (NI225) for the long-term (May 26 2022), it gave us the most optimal buy entry we could expect (see chart below), as it bounced on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 almost hit 34000:
The index has since seen a 4 month correction (from July to October) to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a rebound. This rebound is technically the introduction to the new multi-month rally towards the top of the Channel Up. This is consistent with the pre COVID crash consolidation and before that with the first three quarters of 2017.
Both sequences completed rallies of approximately +63%, the first to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the second above the 2.0 Fib level. As a result if we take a modest approach to the upcoming rally, we expect to see at least 36700, which is the 2.0 Fib ext. and is our long-term target. A new +63% rise from the bottom though, gives as a 40300 price tag.
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ANYCOLOR: Bullish Breakout Holding Above Support ZoneANYCOLOR; the parent company of Nijisanji has broken above the 55SMA and the Support/Resistance zone between 5600 JPY and 6900 JPY so long as this level holds it can easily see and 0.786 maybe even 0.886 retrace back towards the all-time highs.
Recently, a similar company known as COVER CORP had some similar price action that lead to all-time highs that can be seen in the Related Ideas tab below.
NINTENDOHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT 7974 is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
Inverse Head & Shoulders on Nintendo: Hidden Bullish DivergenceNintendo is breaking through the Neckline of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern visible on the Daily timeframe and looks to be targeting the a Fibonacci Retrace to the upside. I will be targeting the .786 and the .886 for Profit Taking.
TSE 8818 ANALYSIS TSE:8818 is currently stuck in the 1400 - 1600 area (white box area )
But If price succeeds to break above the white box and closes above the 1600 level , it is very likely to go bullish towards the 1975 - 2000 area as marked by the box .
On the contrary , If it breaks below the box ,and closes below the 1400 level , then it is very likely to drop to the 1120 - 1040 area as marked by the box .
6J, Waiting for the break of equilibriumJapanese Yen Future is in equilibrium, It means that in that zone, no trend or signal for a specific trend is clear.
So, we will wait for a huge volume so that the 6J could break the equilibrium and increase, otherwise, it will continue with a small variation inside this range
NTT DOCOMO INC Analysis (9437)If the market goes down to the area coloured in red , there is a higher probability that price will bounce back up from there ,especially from the two horizontal red lines and the area between them .
That's why I think the area coloured in Red respresents the optimal area to buy at for people interested in buying TSE:9437 .I think the two thick horizontal red lines and the area between them represent a strong level which represents an interesting buy area , but even there , it would be better not to enter the market with the full investment in case price drops even lower in the red area , offering a more interesting price to buy at .
The buy target would be , untill further notice ,around the green rectangle after buying from the red area .
If the price doesn't reach the red area , it would be better to just watch if this stock is strong enough to close significantly, in an upcoming day, above the green rectangle and the black line and then it would be likely to continue up to around the first blue rectangle , with a potential to reach the second , higher, blue rectangle .
BEWARE FIRST & LAST SESSION HOUR- KDD CORPORATION-30MN- MY IDEASAfter a past long ranging period , we can observe that the KDD CORPORATION curve in 30mn has been at first descending.
After a short period with flat movement we observed a change in direction, seeing now the market going up back to the former ranging zone.
We see that there is a huge amount of fight between buyers and sellers. For the time being, buyers win!
Illustrated by two strong buying signals opportunity to get profits in the long direction.
Next:
-High probability of seeing the market running up more even in this slop angle.
- Beware of the first and last hour of session , major moves has been happening during those times.
- Possibility of a short entry around the top dotted black line which is a strong resistance point OR if we observe a large candlestick (one unique candlestick ) going down to break all lines and reshape the market.
Nikkei USDJPY ratio at a very significant levelTVC:NI225/USDJP is at the same level it was in 1991,1995,1997,2018. The horiztontal trendline extends from 1990-2019 nearly 30 years. A closing above this trendline on a monthly basis will signal a bullish scenario in the Japanese stock market in my opinion.
Nikkei: Long term Buy Opportunity.The index is approaching the 20,970 1W Support creating optimal conditions for a long term buy towards the 23,000 Resistance. Nikkei is on an uptrend since the December bottom (1M MACD = 405.550, RSI = 50.348) and only a breach of the 20,360 Support can distress that. The Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) may come later to confirm that. We are long on NI225 with TP = 23,000.
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A bit unsure stillNikkei 225 is a bit tricky. Good fundamental data out of Japan such as dovish monetary policy, but weak export figures which is why its down today. Technically, we are well above most exponential moving averages, but stochastic reads overbought while momentum suggests we are still headed in an uptrend. Overall, not enough signals for one way or the other.