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Yen Drops Below 150 Per Dollar - Exercise Caution in TradingThe Japanese yen has recently dropped below the critical threshold of 150 per dollar, primarily due to mounting concerns regarding intervention measures. In light of this situation, I strongly urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarification is obtained. The sudden decline in the yen's value has raised concerns among market participants, as it suggests the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. Intervention refers to deliberate actions taken by authorities to influence their currency's exchange rate, typically through buying or selling large amounts of their own currency in the foreign exchange market. Such interventions can have a profound impact on the currency's value and create significant volatility in the market. Given the uncertainty surrounding the current situation, it is prudent to reassess our trading strategies and ensure that we are not unnecessarily exposed to potential risks. Therefore, I strongly recommend that you temporarily halt yen trading until we receive further guidance or clarification from reliable sources regarding any potential intervention measures. In the meantime, I encourage you to closely monitor the latest news and market developments related to the yen. Stay informed about any official statements or actions from the Japanese government or central bank, as these can provide valuable insights into the future direction of the currency. Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio to reduce reliance on yen-based assets until the situation stabilizes. Please remember that our primary objective is to protect our investments and mitigate risk. By exercising caution and temporarily pausing yen trading, we can better position ourselves to navigate the current market uncertainties and make informed decisions when clarity emerges. If you have any questions or require further guidance, please do not hesitate to reach out to me or our dedicated support team. We are here to assist you and ensure that you have the necessary information to make well-informed trading decisions.
by bryandowningqln
11
AUD/JPY: Bullish Trend Pauses for a Pullback-- 30-Minute Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a narrow range on the 30-minute chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.20 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. -- 4-Hour Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.50 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. -- Daily Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the daily chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 95.00 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. Elliott Wave Analysis Based on Elliott Wave Theory, as marked on my chart, the AUD/JPY pair may be in the process of completing a five-wave upward Elliott wave pattern. If this is the case, the pair could experience a significant pullback in the near future. AUD/JPY Fundamental and Technical Analysis for 4 October 2023 (30-min, 4-h, and Daily Charts) Fundamental Analysis The Australian dollar (AUD) is a commodity currency, meaning that its value is closely linked to the prices of commodities such as iron ore and coal. The Japanese yen (JPY) is a safe-haven currency, meaning that it tends to appreciate in value during times of market turmoil. The AUD/JPY currency pair is often seen as a proxy for risk appetite. When investors are feeling optimistic about the global economy, they tend to buy the AUD/JPY pair. When investors are feeling cautious, they tend to sell the AUD/JPY pair. Technical Analysis 30-Minute Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a narrow range on the 30-minute chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.20 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. 4-Hour Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.50 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. Daily Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the daily chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 95.00 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. Elliott Wave Analysis Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the AUD/JPY pair may be in the process of completing a five-wave upward Elliott wave pattern. If this is the case, the pair could experience a significant pullback in the near future. Conclusion Overall, the AUD/JPY pair is in a bullish trend on all three timeframes. However, the RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory on all three timeframes, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. Traders should watch the key support and resistance levels mentioned above carefully. A break above the 94.50 level on the 4-hour chart would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. A break below the 94.00 level on the 4-hour chart would suggest a pullback is underway.
Short
by YExplore
USDJPY; Zen and the art of economic cycle maintenanceThe Yen and thus, the Bank of Japan, is in a rather precarious position. (Then again, when was the last time they weren't - in a precarious position?? ... .) Admittedly, our Japanese is somewhat rusty lately but nowhere in the monetary manual did we find where it says: "Lending rates must be fixed at <0% or >10%, at all times!" So, when the BoJ hangs it's hat on some arbitrary metric, such as the volatility in the USDJPY in this case, to guide it's policy and a potential departure from the negative interest rates (more so than based on the underlying economic data - CPI, PPI, unemployment, etc.) and then said volatility collapses, almost immediately?! ... One could only speculate on the complex range of emotions, induced in the BoJ's leadership (WTF?!, etc.). So,now what? ... These previously unlikely turn of events suddenly provide a strong bias towards a (top-side) volatility spike, in the event of which a forced monetary intervention by the BoJ in the very near future becomes a virtually foregone conclusion! On an additional note; Given the current US-Japanese rate differentials (as well as other factors) the USDJPY remains the least "over valued" among all the Yen crosses - making it a less than ideal such metric. Try on the CHFJPY or even the EURJPY as an exercise in absurd over valuation, for example. The likes of which have solid, almost identical, precedents in the late 1970 European central bank policies, most ending "in tears" and none more than Switzerland's SNB's, which slid into one of it's deepest depressions by the beginning of the 1980s! This weeks technical picture (including Fridays close) further underlines this, by now much shifted, bias toward a top-side break out, potentially pushing prices well past the key 150.00 level, rather quickly. (E.g., certainly do Not be short the USDJPY, here! - To say the least.) Current Rate Differentials between the Bank of Japan and ... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - in Basis Points - ("most over valued" ranking) - CHFJPY (Switerland) --- +250 - (#1) - SKJPY (Sweden) --- +375 - AUDJPY (Australia) --- +400 - NOKJPY (Norway) --- +400 - EURJPY (EU) --- +450 - (#5) - CADJPY (Canada) --- +475 - GBPJPY (G. Britain) --- +515 - NZDJPY (N Zealand) --- +525 - USDJPY (US) --- +525 - MXNJPY (Mexico) --- +11.25 - (#4) - ZARJPY (S. Africa) --- +11.75 - (#2) - HUFJPY (Hungary) --- +13.00 - (#3) --------------------------------------------------------------------- p.s. This here is also the new Yen Thread!/b]
by Nemo_Confidat
2
GBPJPY Bears in Sight as Japan Mulls Currency Intervention Bearish GBPJPY as Japan's key economic ministers warn of currency intervention Japan's key economic ministers have warned of currency market intervention, keeping investors wary of a further sell-off in the yen and weighing on the GBPJPY exchange rate. The yen has weakened sharply against the dollar in recent months, hitting its weakest level in nearly a year on Monday. This has been driven by a number of factors, including the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-low interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively. The recent warning from Japanese ministers has raised the prospect of further intervention to weaken the yen. This would be bad news for the GBPJPY exchange rate, as it would make Japanese exports more competitive and make British imports more expensive. As of October 10, 2023, GBPJPY is trading at 182. If Japanese authorities do intervene to weaken the yen, this could push GBPJPY down towards 175 or even lower. Traders should be cautious of long positions in GBPJPY in the near term, as the risk of intervention is high.
Short
by masterclass618
Potential Intervention by Bank of Japan - Pause Yen Trading? As you are aware, the USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing considerable volatility lately, with the exchange rate approaching the critical level of 155. While we strive to maintain a balanced and unbiased approach, it is essential to acknowledge the potential consequences if the USD/JPY falls beyond this threshold. In such a scenario, it is highly likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may intervene to stabilize the yen's value against the US dollar. Historically, the BoJ has demonstrated a proactive approach to prevent excessive currency fluctuations, especially when they may adversely affect Japan's economy. Considering this possibility, we strongly recommend that traders take a moment to reassess their current yen trading positions. Pausing yen trading during this uncertain period may prove to be a prudent decision, allowing us to gauge the BoJ's response and the subsequent market sentiment. We understand that as traders, you possess the expertise to make informed decisions based on your individual strategies and risk appetite. However, we believe it is our responsibility to highlight potential market events that could have a significant impact on your trading activities. To stay updated on the latest developments regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate and the Bank of Japan's potential intervention, we encourage you to regularly monitor reliable news sources and leverage comprehensive research tools. In conclusion, we urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarity emerges regarding the Bank of Japan's intervention. By adopting a prudent approach, we can safeguard our positions and navigate the market with greater confidence.
by bryandowningqln
CHFJPY, DOOMSDAY BEAR-MARKET Scenario, Wedge-TRIGGER-Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about CHFJPY on several timeframe perspectives. The CHFJPY conditions have accelerated to an unnatural dynamic recently as the pair moved into new highs instead of the massive overbought condition and the fact that this main reversal into the bearish direction should have setup already long times before especially considering the deficit of capital flows in CHF against the JPY there is a lot of bearish pressure present for CHF. On the broader perspective the pair is forming this gigantic ascending-wedge-formation in which it already penetrated the lower boundaries with crucial bearish momentum spikes into the lower direction. This means that once a huge bearish pressure spike below the lower boundary has setup this will lead to many long liquidation triggers down the road and will lead to further continuations into this perspective. When the bearish pressure accelerates heavily this will also lead to the massive head-shoulder-formation to be completed triggering further bearish liquidations and momentum. Especially with a further increase of the deficit in capital flows between CHF and JPY this will lead to the main market momentum to convert into a bearish dynamic and will lead to the underlying bearish scenario perspective to be confirmed by traders and investors moving into a more bearish sentiment consideration. Once the whole head-shoulder-formation has completed the momentum is likely to accelerate to the target-zones mentioned. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
by VincePrince
10
USDJPY Near the Channel's top. Start selling.USDJPY is trading inside a short term Channel Up. Every recent rise has ranged from +1.40% to +1.96%. The 4hour RSI is on 77.60 (Resistance A), the highest it has been since August 16th. All the above justify to start a selling sequence as long as the price doesn't cross over the Channel Up. Target the 4hour MA100 at 148.750. You can start shorting and target the 1day MA50 at 106.000. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short
by TheCryptagon
1
GBPJPY: Small rebound expected to be a perfect sell entry.GBPJPY got flatly rejected on our last idea as it peaked on the HH trendline and crossed under the 1D MA50 (chart at the bottom of the analysis). Even the Channel Up broke downwards and the 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 38.762, MACD = -0.520, ADX = 38.784) officially. A new Channel Down has emerged, which shifted the 4H MA50 to a Resistance after the September 6th breakdown. Our trading approach includes waiting for the next 4H MA50 contact, sell it and target a new LL. As you see the 2.0 and 3.0 Fibonacci extensions almost match the S1 and S2 levels respectively. Our targets are formulates accordingly (TP1 = 180.400, TP2 = 177.000). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1
USDJPY: Final rise before the pullback.USDJPY has been extending the fierce rise inside the Channel Up on a healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.951, MACD = 0.990, ADX = 45.150). The 1D RSI has turned sideways since August 16th, a first indication that the uptrend might be losing steam. In our view, it is entering the last stage of this rise before a rejection to the 1D MA100 is materialized. See how every Resistance, prior LH of the 2022 decline has been filled and the final one is the R5 level at 152.000. If the pullback starts there, we will short and target the Fibonacci 0.5 level (TP 145.000), a similar structure that priced the July 14th Low. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1
Potential BOJ Intervening on Yen Post-Federal Reserve MeetingIntroduction: In the ever-evolving world of currency trading, it's crucial for traders to stay informed about potential interventions by central banks. The recent Federal Reserve meeting has sparked speculation about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) next move regarding the yen. This article aims to examine the likelihood of BOJ intervention and provide a cautious analysis to traders considering long yen positions. Understanding the Context: The Federal Reserve's policies and decisions often have a significant impact on currency markets worldwide. As the world's two largest economies, the United States and Japan share a complex relationship that can influence currency valuations. Following any significant developments in the US monetary policy, it is prudent to assess the potential response from the BOJ and its implications for the yen. Analyzing the Possibility of BOJ Intervention: While predicting central bank actions is inherently challenging, there are a few factors that warrant attention when considering the likelihood of BOJ intervention on the yen: 1. Exchange Rate Stability: BOJ's primary concern is maintaining stability in the yen's exchange rate. If the yen appreciates rapidly against major currencies, it may harm Japan's export-driven economy. In such cases, the BOJ may intervene to prevent excessive yen appreciation. 2. Economic Recovery: Japan's ongoing efforts to revive its economy have been met with mixed results. The BOJ may consider intervening to support economic growth, particularly if the Federal Reserve's policies threaten to weaken the yen significantly. 3. Global Market Sentiment: The BOJ closely monitors global market sentiment, as abrupt changes can impact the yen's value. If the Federal Reserve's decisions lead to substantial market volatility, the BOJ may intervene to stabilize the yen and mitigate potential risks. Call-to-Action: Long Yen with Caution Considering the aforementioned factors, traders contemplating long yen positions should exercise caution and adopt a measured approach. Here are a few suggestions to consider: 1. Stay Informed: Continuously monitor news and updates from both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ to anticipate any potential intervention. Being aware of economic indicators, policy statements, and market sentiment is crucial for making informed trading decisions. 2. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential entry and exit points for yen positions. Combining technical analysis with fundamental factors can help traders navigate the market with a more comprehensive approach. 3. Risk Management: Implement robust risk management strategies to protect your capital. Setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio can help mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements. Conclusion: While the possibility of BOJ intervention on the yen after the Federal Reserve meeting cannot be ruled out, traders should approach long yen positions with caution. By staying informed, conducting thorough analysis, and implementing effective risk management strategies, traders can navigate the currency markets more confidently. Remember, the key to successful trading lies in a balanced and informed approach. asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Yen-intervention-watch-redoubles-after-Fed-BOJ-meetings Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct independent research and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.
TVC:JXYLong
by bryandowningqln
NZDJPY: Bottom forming, buy confirmed above the 1D MA50.NZDJPY is trading inside a Channel Down with the price rising after a bottom check in the past 20 days. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 53.482, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 31.647) meaning that if this is a bullish reversal inside the Channel, there is still time to enter. The trigger signal will be a cross over the 1D MA50, that will be our entry and our exit an RSI reading of 65.00 and over. We estimate the target to be roughly under the 0.618 Fibonacci level so until the RSI hits 65.00 we will set the target accordingly near the top of the Channel Down (TP = 0.61850). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope