Potential BOJ Intervening on Yen Post-Federal Reserve MeetingIntroduction:
In the ever-evolving world of currency trading, it's crucial for traders to stay informed about potential interventions by central banks. The recent Federal Reserve meeting has sparked speculation about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) next move regarding the yen. This article aims to examine the likelihood of BOJ intervention and provide a cautious analysis to traders considering long yen positions.
Understanding the Context:
The Federal Reserve's policies and decisions often have a significant impact on currency markets worldwide. As the world's two largest economies, the United States and Japan share a complex relationship that can influence currency valuations. Following any significant developments in the US monetary policy, it is prudent to assess the potential response from the BOJ and its implications for the yen.
Analyzing the Possibility of BOJ Intervention:
While predicting central bank actions is inherently challenging, there are a few factors that warrant attention when considering the likelihood of BOJ intervention on the yen:
1. Exchange Rate Stability: BOJ's primary concern is maintaining stability in the yen's exchange rate. If the yen appreciates rapidly against major currencies, it may harm Japan's export-driven economy. In such cases, the BOJ may intervene to prevent excessive yen appreciation.
2. Economic Recovery: Japan's ongoing efforts to revive its economy have been met with mixed results. The BOJ may consider intervening to support economic growth, particularly if the Federal Reserve's policies threaten to weaken the yen significantly.
3. Global Market Sentiment: The BOJ closely monitors global market sentiment, as abrupt changes can impact the yen's value. If the Federal Reserve's decisions lead to substantial market volatility, the BOJ may intervene to stabilize the yen and mitigate potential risks.
Call-to-Action: Long Yen with Caution
Considering the aforementioned factors, traders contemplating long yen positions should exercise caution and adopt a measured approach. Here are a few suggestions to consider:
1. Stay Informed: Continuously monitor news and updates from both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ to anticipate any potential intervention. Being aware of economic indicators, policy statements, and market sentiment is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential entry and exit points for yen positions. Combining technical analysis with fundamental factors can help traders navigate the market with a more comprehensive approach.
3. Risk Management: Implement robust risk management strategies to protect your capital. Setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio can help mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements.
Conclusion:
While the possibility of BOJ intervention on the yen after the Federal Reserve meeting cannot be ruled out, traders should approach long yen positions with caution. By staying informed, conducting thorough analysis, and implementing effective risk management strategies, traders can navigate the currency markets more confidently. Remember, the key to successful trading lies in a balanced and informed approach.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Yen-intervention-watch-redoubles-after-Fed-BOJ-meetings
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct independent research and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.
Japaneseyen
NZDJPY: Bottom forming, buy confirmed above the 1D MA50.NZDJPY is trading inside a Channel Down with the price rising after a bottom check in the past 20 days. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 53.482, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 31.647) meaning that if this is a bullish reversal inside the Channel, there is still time to enter.
The trigger signal will be a cross over the 1D MA50, that will be our entry and our exit an RSI reading of 65.00 and over. We estimate the target to be roughly under the 0.618 Fibonacci level so until the RSI hits 65.00 we will set the target accordingly near the top of the Channel Down (TP = 0.61850).
Prior idea:
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CHFJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY formed an important high momentum bearish candle last week.
With one single candle, the pair violated a lower boundary of a horizontal range,
and the market also closed below a major rising trend line.
It makes me think that the pair may go lower.
Goals: 162.42 / 160.8
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Final Target yet to be run on CHFJPYThis inverse Head and shoulders has produced fantastic gains already
What suggests that final target will be met
is that Yen vs other crosses is still yet trigger their respective necklines!
I assume more madness to come from the #BOJ in the next Financial Panic.
Like the Bank of England another Island nation probably first to embark on a new wave of #QuantitativeEasing
NZDJPY Bullish after successful rebound.It has been a month exactly since we made this break-out signal on the NZDJPY pair:
The price has made a successful rebound at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone pattern. As mentioned our buy break-out signal was when the pair closed a 1D candle above the Lower Highs trend-line. That coincided with a closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 02.
Our first target remains 89.700 but we now set a second target as the peak of this run on the Fibonacci 2.0 extension at 91.350.
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Yen Falls as Bank of Japan Holds Perfect Trade with US DollarThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble after the Bank of Japan's decision to hold interest rates steady. Meanwhile, the perfect trading scenario has emerged with the US dollar/DXY. It's time to capitalize on this golden opportunity and make some profitable moves! So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to ride the wave of success.
The Bank of Japan's Impact:
The Bank of Japan's recent decision to maintain its interest rates has sent shockwaves through the currency market. As the yen weakens, it opens up a window of opportunity for traders like you to take advantage of this shift. The central bank's monetary policy has set the stage for potential gains in the US dollar/DXY, making it an ideal time to consider a short yen, long US dollar/DXY position.
The Perfect Trade Scenario:
As the Japan yen falls, the US dollar/DXY is poised for a remarkable climb. The US dollar has been gaining strength against major currencies, and this trend is expected to continue. By going long on the US dollar/DXY and shorting the yen, you can position yourself to reap substantial rewards. This perfect trade scenario is not one to be missed!
Why Now Is the Time:
Timing is everything in the world of trading, and this opportunity is no exception. The confluence of the Bank of Japan's decision and the US dollar's strength presents an ideal moment to enter the market. By acting swiftly and decisively, you can maximize your potential profits. Don't let this chance slip away – the time to act is now!
Call-to-Action: Short Yen, Long US Dollar/DXY:
Are you ready to embark on a profitable trading journey? Join us in seizing this golden opportunity by shorting the yen and going long on the US dollar/DXY. Here's your call-to-action:
1. Analyze the market: Conduct thorough research and analysis to understand the current market conditions and potential risks involved.
2. Develop a trading strategy: Create a well-defined plan that includes entry and exit points, risk management strategies, and profit targets.
3. Execute your trades: Open positions that reflect your trading strategy, shorting the yen and going long on the US dollar/DXY.
4. Monitor and adjust: Keep a close eye on market movements, and be prepared to adjust your trades if necessary. Stay informed and adapt your strategy accordingly.
5. Reap the rewards: As the yen weakens and the US dollar/DXY strengthens, watch your profits soar. Remember to stick to your plan and secure your gains when the time is right.
Conclusion:
Traders, the time to act is now! With the Japan yen falling and the perfect trade scenario unfolding with the US dollar/DXY, the potential for substantial profits awaits. Embrace this opportunity with enthusiasm and embark on a trading journey that could lead you to financial success. So, gear up, stay positive, and get ready to ride the waves of triumph!
GBPJPY Turning bearish until the end of the yearThe GBPJPY pair crossed under the MA50 (1d) again and is approaching the MA100 (1d).
We have a Rising Resistance peak pattern, which is very much like that of May 2021. In fact the whole fractal since its begining (2021) is very similar to today's (since 2023).
This most likely turns the pair bearish inside a Megaphone for the remainder of the year.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell every rise to the top (dashed line) of the Megaphone.
Targets:
1. Lower Lows until the price hits the MA200 (1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) also shows high symmetry between the fractals. It peaked on the first Higher High of the Rising Resistance, breached the MA50 (1d) when the RSI was near 40.00 and made the second Higher High (and peak) around the 70.00 mark.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USDJPY is extending the long term rally.The USDJPY pair is trading inside a Channel Up since the January 16th market bottom.
The last Higher Low wasn't only supported at the bottom of the Channel but also the MA100 (1d) and Fibonacci 0.618 level.
This is what happened on the August 2nd 2022 Low, when the pair was again trading inside a long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Buy if a (1d) candle closes above Resistance 1 (152.000).
Targets:
1. 152.000 (Resistance 1).
2. 156.000 (-1 Fibonacci extension like on the October 21st 2022 High).
Tips:
1. The RSI and MACD (1d) also show remarkable similarities with the 2022 fractal. The Fibonacci symmetry is strong indicating that both of our targets are well placed.
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CADJPY Testing the 1-year Resistance. Will it break?The CADJPY pair has been just below the 110.615 Resistance (September 13 2022 High) for the past 3 trading sessions. The long-term pattern is a Channel Up so the trend remains bullish until it breaks downwards. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is firmly supporting.
The current bullish wave doesn't differ much from the one that started on the March 24 Higher Low and peaked on the 4.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result we remain bullish on this pair and expect 113.500 (target) by the end of October.
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NZDJPY: Top-Down Analysis & Bullish Setup 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY reached a key daily horizontal support.
The price nicely respected that and formed a double bottom pattern on an hourly time frame.
I anticipate a pullback from the underlined area at least to 0.88
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USDJPY - RESISTANCE BECOMES SUPPORT 📈Hello Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The USDJPY Broke a Strong Resistance Level (145.100-143.956)
Currently, This Resistance Level Becomes New Support Level.
So, I Expect a Bullish Move📈
i'm waiting for a retest...
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TARGET: 148.350🎯
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CHFJPY Holding the 1D MA50. Bullish until broken.The CHFJPY pair is trading above the 1D MA50, holding it tightly for the past 10 days. Technically that is the long-term Support trend-line since March 29, while the long-term pattern has been a Channel Up.
As long as the price is trading above the 1D MA50, we are bullish, targeting 171.000 (+8.00% increase). If the price breaks below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, sell towards the 1D MA200, targeting 155.000.
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AUD/JPY: A Currency Pair Poised for GrowthAUD/JPY currency pair is trading at around the marked levels. Please read the analysis on the chart, as well as the explanations in the comments. Thank you.
Technical Analysis:
On the 30-minute chart, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading in a bullish trend. The price is above the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with the signal line above the MACD line.
The Elliot Wave Analysis in this case shows a continuation of the bullish impulse. I marked the first potential level of the Wave 5. It can extend after that level, or a correction may start (short term).
On the 4-hour chart, the AUD/JPY currency pair is also trading in a bullish trend. The price is above the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with the signal line above the MACD line.
On the daily chart, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading in a bullish trend. The price is above the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages. The MACD indicator is also bullish, with the signal line above the MACD line.
Overall, the fundamental and technical analysis suggests that the AUD/JPY currency pair is likely to continue trading in a bullish trend in the near term.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian economy is currently facing a number of challenges, including a slowdown in China, rising inflation, and a trade deficit. However, the Australian economy is still expected to grow at a modest pace in 2023.
The Japanese economy is also facing a number of challenges, including an aging population, a shrinking workforce, and a high debt burden. However, the Japanese economy is expected to avoid recession in 2023.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
AUDJPY Strong Lower Highs bullish break-out.The AUDJPY pair has turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support since last week's bullish break-out signal above the Lower Highs trend-line. That is a major bullish continuation call following the bottom on the 3-month Higher Lows Zone on March 27. The dashed Higher Lows has been supporting this uptrend and this seems to be the new bullish leg. The previous two such rises during these 3 years have reached at least +17.40%. As a result our buy target is 101.000.
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EURJPY Low risk buy here. Keep an eye on the RSI.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since March. The price is currently on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. As long as the pattern holds (bottom intact, closing 1D candles above it), we have the opportunity for a low risk buy to target the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at 160.450.
If we close a 1D candle below the pattern, then buy again only when the 1D RSI touches the 39.50 Support. This level has marked the bottoms of July 27 and March 17.
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GBPJPY Short term buy signal on oversold RSI.The GBPJPY pair is trading inside a Channel Down with the price currently under its middle.
It appears that there is an internal Falling Support holding the Lower Lows since August 25th.
Considering that the 1H RSI is oversold, this emerges as the ideal setting for a new buy.
Buy now and target the Falling Resistance at 184.250.
Previous chart:
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USDJPY Bullish extension signalUSDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up for almost a month.
It priced the last Higher Low on September 11th and now has established the price action over the 4hour MA50.
All Higher Lows have been met with a 4hour MACD Bullish Cross.
As a result this is an extension of the bullish Channel Up wave. Buy and target 148.500 (+1.79% rise as the wave prior).
Previous chart:
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USD/JPY coming to the strong resistanceUSD/JPY has been consolidating in a narrow range of 145-147 for the past three weeks. The pair is demonstrating an accumulation and should breakout soon. The reversal zone is a big potential, at least for 100 pips.
The hurdle for raising rates this month is higher, implying the possibility for US Dollar falls.
Next stronger reversal zone possibility is at around 148.80, but light shorts right now can be placed.
GBPJPY Sell signal on this Triangle pattern.The GBPJPY pair is trading within a Triangle pattern, similar to July's. The price is currently approaching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which is untouched since August 08. As long as the pair closes below the 0.382 Fibonacci level, we are selling the bearish break-out and target 181.600 (Fibonacci 1.5). Notice how the 4H MACD sequences between the two fractals are identical.
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