Japaneseyen
GBPJPY Bears in Sight as Japan Mulls Currency Intervention
Bearish GBPJPY as Japan's key economic ministers warn of currency intervention
Japan's key economic ministers have warned of currency market intervention, keeping investors wary of a further sell-off in the yen and weighing on the GBPJPY exchange rate.
The yen has weakened sharply against the dollar in recent months, hitting its weakest level in nearly a year on Monday. This has been driven by a number of factors, including the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-low interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively.
The recent warning from Japanese ministers has raised the prospect of further intervention to weaken the yen. This would be bad news for the GBPJPY exchange rate, as it would make Japanese exports more competitive and make British imports more expensive.
As of October 10, 2023, GBPJPY is trading at 182. If Japanese authorities do intervene to weaken the yen, this could push GBPJPY down towards 175 or even lower.
Traders should be cautious of long positions in GBPJPY in the near term, as the risk of intervention is high.
NZDJPY - New Breakout 📈Hello Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The NZDJPY Broke a Strong Resistance Level (88.310-88.693)
Currently, This Resistance Level Becomes New Support Level.
So, I Expect a Bullish Move📈
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 89.350🎯
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Potential Intervention by Bank of Japan - Pause Yen Trading? As you are aware, the USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing considerable volatility lately, with the exchange rate approaching the critical level of 155. While we strive to maintain a balanced and unbiased approach, it is essential to acknowledge the potential consequences if the USD/JPY falls beyond this threshold.
In such a scenario, it is highly likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may intervene to stabilize the yen's value against the US dollar. Historically, the BoJ has demonstrated a proactive approach to prevent excessive currency fluctuations, especially when they may adversely affect Japan's economy.
Considering this possibility, we strongly recommend that traders take a moment to reassess their current yen trading positions. Pausing yen trading during this uncertain period may prove to be a prudent decision, allowing us to gauge the BoJ's response and the subsequent market sentiment.
We understand that as traders, you possess the expertise to make informed decisions based on your individual strategies and risk appetite. However, we believe it is our responsibility to highlight potential market events that could have a significant impact on your trading activities.
To stay updated on the latest developments regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate and the Bank of Japan's potential intervention, we encourage you to regularly monitor reliable news sources and leverage comprehensive research tools.
In conclusion, we urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarity emerges regarding the Bank of Japan's intervention. By adopting a prudent approach, we can safeguard our positions and navigate the market with greater confidence.
CHFJPY, DOOMSDAY BEAR-MARKET Scenario, Wedge-TRIGGER-Setup!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about CHFJPY on several timeframe perspectives. The CHFJPY conditions have accelerated to an unnatural dynamic recently as the pair moved into new highs instead of the massive overbought condition and the fact that this main reversal into the bearish direction should have setup already long times before especially considering the deficit of capital flows in CHF against the JPY there is a lot of bearish pressure present for CHF.
On the broader perspective the pair is forming this gigantic ascending-wedge-formation in which it already penetrated the lower boundaries with crucial bearish momentum spikes into the lower direction. This means that once a huge bearish pressure spike below the lower boundary has setup this will lead to many long liquidation triggers down the road and will lead to further continuations into this perspective. When the bearish pressure accelerates heavily this will also lead to the massive head-shoulder-formation to be completed triggering further bearish liquidations and momentum.
Especially with a further increase of the deficit in capital flows between CHF and JPY this will lead to the main market momentum to convert into a bearish dynamic and will lead to the underlying bearish scenario perspective to be confirmed by traders and investors moving into a more bearish sentiment consideration. Once the whole head-shoulder-formation has completed the momentum is likely to accelerate to the target-zones mentioned.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
USDJPY Near the Channel's top. Start selling.USDJPY is trading inside a short term Channel Up.
Every recent rise has ranged from +1.40% to +1.96%.
The 4hour RSI is on 77.60 (Resistance A), the highest it has been since August 16th.
All the above justify to start a selling sequence as long as the price doesn't cross over the Channel Up. Target the 4hour MA100 at 148.750.
You can start shorting and target the 1day MA50 at 106.000.
Previous chart:
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GBPJPY: Small rebound expected to be a perfect sell entry.GBPJPY got flatly rejected on our last idea as it peaked on the HH trendline and crossed under the 1D MA50 (chart at the bottom of the analysis). Even the Channel Up broke downwards and the 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 38.762, MACD = -0.520, ADX = 38.784) officially. A new Channel Down has emerged, which shifted the 4H MA50 to a Resistance after the September 6th breakdown.
Our trading approach includes waiting for the next 4H MA50 contact, sell it and target a new LL. As you see the 2.0 and 3.0 Fibonacci extensions almost match the S1 and S2 levels respectively. Our targets are formulates accordingly (TP1 = 180.400, TP2 = 177.000).
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CHFJPY - Bearish Double TOP 📉Hello Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The CHFJPY Price Formed a Double Top Pattern.
The Neckline is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 162.500🎯
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USDJPY: Final rise before the pullback.USDJPY has been extending the fierce rise inside the Channel Up on a healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.951, MACD = 0.990, ADX = 45.150). The 1D RSI has turned sideways since August 16th, a first indication that the uptrend might be losing steam.
In our view, it is entering the last stage of this rise before a rejection to the 1D MA100 is materialized. See how every Resistance, prior LH of the 2022 decline has been filled and the final one is the R5 level at 152.000. If the pullback starts there, we will short and target the Fibonacci 0.5 level (TP 145.000), a similar structure that priced the July 14th Low.
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NZDJPY: Breakout & Bullish Continuation 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance.
Taking into consideration that the market is currently rallying,
such a violation may trigger one more bullish wave.
I anticipate a bullish continuation to 89.4
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Potential BOJ Intervening on Yen Post-Federal Reserve MeetingIntroduction:
In the ever-evolving world of currency trading, it's crucial for traders to stay informed about potential interventions by central banks. The recent Federal Reserve meeting has sparked speculation about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) next move regarding the yen. This article aims to examine the likelihood of BOJ intervention and provide a cautious analysis to traders considering long yen positions.
Understanding the Context:
The Federal Reserve's policies and decisions often have a significant impact on currency markets worldwide. As the world's two largest economies, the United States and Japan share a complex relationship that can influence currency valuations. Following any significant developments in the US monetary policy, it is prudent to assess the potential response from the BOJ and its implications for the yen.
Analyzing the Possibility of BOJ Intervention:
While predicting central bank actions is inherently challenging, there are a few factors that warrant attention when considering the likelihood of BOJ intervention on the yen:
1. Exchange Rate Stability: BOJ's primary concern is maintaining stability in the yen's exchange rate. If the yen appreciates rapidly against major currencies, it may harm Japan's export-driven economy. In such cases, the BOJ may intervene to prevent excessive yen appreciation.
2. Economic Recovery: Japan's ongoing efforts to revive its economy have been met with mixed results. The BOJ may consider intervening to support economic growth, particularly if the Federal Reserve's policies threaten to weaken the yen significantly.
3. Global Market Sentiment: The BOJ closely monitors global market sentiment, as abrupt changes can impact the yen's value. If the Federal Reserve's decisions lead to substantial market volatility, the BOJ may intervene to stabilize the yen and mitigate potential risks.
Call-to-Action: Long Yen with Caution
Considering the aforementioned factors, traders contemplating long yen positions should exercise caution and adopt a measured approach. Here are a few suggestions to consider:
1. Stay Informed: Continuously monitor news and updates from both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ to anticipate any potential intervention. Being aware of economic indicators, policy statements, and market sentiment is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential entry and exit points for yen positions. Combining technical analysis with fundamental factors can help traders navigate the market with a more comprehensive approach.
3. Risk Management: Implement robust risk management strategies to protect your capital. Setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio can help mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements.
Conclusion:
While the possibility of BOJ intervention on the yen after the Federal Reserve meeting cannot be ruled out, traders should approach long yen positions with caution. By staying informed, conducting thorough analysis, and implementing effective risk management strategies, traders can navigate the currency markets more confidently. Remember, the key to successful trading lies in a balanced and informed approach.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Yen-intervention-watch-redoubles-after-Fed-BOJ-meetings
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct independent research and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.
NZDJPY: Bottom forming, buy confirmed above the 1D MA50.NZDJPY is trading inside a Channel Down with the price rising after a bottom check in the past 20 days. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 53.482, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 31.647) meaning that if this is a bullish reversal inside the Channel, there is still time to enter.
The trigger signal will be a cross over the 1D MA50, that will be our entry and our exit an RSI reading of 65.00 and over. We estimate the target to be roughly under the 0.618 Fibonacci level so until the RSI hits 65.00 we will set the target accordingly near the top of the Channel Down (TP = 0.61850).
Prior idea:
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CHFJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY formed an important high momentum bearish candle last week.
With one single candle, the pair violated a lower boundary of a horizontal range,
and the market also closed below a major rising trend line.
It makes me think that the pair may go lower.
Goals: 162.42 / 160.8
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Final Target yet to be run on CHFJPYThis inverse Head and shoulders has produced fantastic gains already
What suggests that final target will be met
is that Yen vs other crosses is still yet trigger their respective necklines!
I assume more madness to come from the #BOJ in the next Financial Panic.
Like the Bank of England another Island nation probably first to embark on a new wave of #QuantitativeEasing
NZDJPY Bullish after successful rebound.It has been a month exactly since we made this break-out signal on the NZDJPY pair:
The price has made a successful rebound at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone pattern. As mentioned our buy break-out signal was when the pair closed a 1D candle above the Lower Highs trend-line. That coincided with a closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 02.
Our first target remains 89.700 but we now set a second target as the peak of this run on the Fibonacci 2.0 extension at 91.350.
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Yen Falls as Bank of Japan Holds Perfect Trade with US DollarThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble after the Bank of Japan's decision to hold interest rates steady. Meanwhile, the perfect trading scenario has emerged with the US dollar/DXY. It's time to capitalize on this golden opportunity and make some profitable moves! So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to ride the wave of success.
The Bank of Japan's Impact:
The Bank of Japan's recent decision to maintain its interest rates has sent shockwaves through the currency market. As the yen weakens, it opens up a window of opportunity for traders like you to take advantage of this shift. The central bank's monetary policy has set the stage for potential gains in the US dollar/DXY, making it an ideal time to consider a short yen, long US dollar/DXY position.
The Perfect Trade Scenario:
As the Japan yen falls, the US dollar/DXY is poised for a remarkable climb. The US dollar has been gaining strength against major currencies, and this trend is expected to continue. By going long on the US dollar/DXY and shorting the yen, you can position yourself to reap substantial rewards. This perfect trade scenario is not one to be missed!
Why Now Is the Time:
Timing is everything in the world of trading, and this opportunity is no exception. The confluence of the Bank of Japan's decision and the US dollar's strength presents an ideal moment to enter the market. By acting swiftly and decisively, you can maximize your potential profits. Don't let this chance slip away – the time to act is now!
Call-to-Action: Short Yen, Long US Dollar/DXY:
Are you ready to embark on a profitable trading journey? Join us in seizing this golden opportunity by shorting the yen and going long on the US dollar/DXY. Here's your call-to-action:
1. Analyze the market: Conduct thorough research and analysis to understand the current market conditions and potential risks involved.
2. Develop a trading strategy: Create a well-defined plan that includes entry and exit points, risk management strategies, and profit targets.
3. Execute your trades: Open positions that reflect your trading strategy, shorting the yen and going long on the US dollar/DXY.
4. Monitor and adjust: Keep a close eye on market movements, and be prepared to adjust your trades if necessary. Stay informed and adapt your strategy accordingly.
5. Reap the rewards: As the yen weakens and the US dollar/DXY strengthens, watch your profits soar. Remember to stick to your plan and secure your gains when the time is right.
Conclusion:
Traders, the time to act is now! With the Japan yen falling and the perfect trade scenario unfolding with the US dollar/DXY, the potential for substantial profits awaits. Embrace this opportunity with enthusiasm and embark on a trading journey that could lead you to financial success. So, gear up, stay positive, and get ready to ride the waves of triumph!
GBPJPY Turning bearish until the end of the yearThe GBPJPY pair crossed under the MA50 (1d) again and is approaching the MA100 (1d).
We have a Rising Resistance peak pattern, which is very much like that of May 2021. In fact the whole fractal since its begining (2021) is very similar to today's (since 2023).
This most likely turns the pair bearish inside a Megaphone for the remainder of the year.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell every rise to the top (dashed line) of the Megaphone.
Targets:
1. Lower Lows until the price hits the MA200 (1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) also shows high symmetry between the fractals. It peaked on the first Higher High of the Rising Resistance, breached the MA50 (1d) when the RSI was near 40.00 and made the second Higher High (and peak) around the 70.00 mark.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USDJPY is extending the long term rally.The USDJPY pair is trading inside a Channel Up since the January 16th market bottom.
The last Higher Low wasn't only supported at the bottom of the Channel but also the MA100 (1d) and Fibonacci 0.618 level.
This is what happened on the August 2nd 2022 Low, when the pair was again trading inside a long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Buy if a (1d) candle closes above Resistance 1 (152.000).
Targets:
1. 152.000 (Resistance 1).
2. 156.000 (-1 Fibonacci extension like on the October 21st 2022 High).
Tips:
1. The RSI and MACD (1d) also show remarkable similarities with the 2022 fractal. The Fibonacci symmetry is strong indicating that both of our targets are well placed.
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CADJPY Testing the 1-year Resistance. Will it break?The CADJPY pair has been just below the 110.615 Resistance (September 13 2022 High) for the past 3 trading sessions. The long-term pattern is a Channel Up so the trend remains bullish until it breaks downwards. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is firmly supporting.
The current bullish wave doesn't differ much from the one that started on the March 24 Higher Low and peaked on the 4.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result we remain bullish on this pair and expect 113.500 (target) by the end of October.
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NZDJPY: Top-Down Analysis & Bullish Setup 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY reached a key daily horizontal support.
The price nicely respected that and formed a double bottom pattern on an hourly time frame.
I anticipate a pullback from the underlined area at least to 0.88
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USDJPY - RESISTANCE BECOMES SUPPORT 📈Hello Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The USDJPY Broke a Strong Resistance Level (145.100-143.956)
Currently, This Resistance Level Becomes New Support Level.
So, I Expect a Bullish Move📈
i'm waiting for a retest...
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TARGET: 148.350🎯
___________
if you agreed with this IDEA, please leave a LIKE, SUBSCRIBE or COMMENT!