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USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my detailed structure analysis for USDJPY. Horizontal Key Levels. Resistance 1: 140.63 - 140.93 area Resistance 2: 142.06 - 142.46 area Support 1: 138.48 - 138.80 area Support 2: 137.38 - 137.95 area Support 3: 135.20 - 135.49 area Support 4: 132.95 - 134.27 area Vertical Key Levels. Vertical Resistance 1: Rising trend line Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading this week. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
10
CHFJPY Last rise before a strong correction.The CHFJPY pair had a strong 5 week rally since our last buy call (see chart below) on April 28: Our final bullish target remains 159.000, which will make a perfect contact with the Higher Highs trend-line since January. But given the fact that the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been tested twice this year, we expect a stronger rejection this time and decline all the way to Support 1 (149.100), where it can make contact with the 1W MA50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
7
HelenP. I Japanese Yen may continue to fall and achieve supportHi folks today I'm prepared for you JAPANESE YEN analytics. The Japanese Yen created a support zone of 134.05-133.70, from which started to grow the and form Elliott Waves. The price rose to mark 136.30 (1 wave) and after a downward correction, rose (2 wave) broke through the level of 137.35 and continued the local uptrend (3 wave). The Japanese Yen declined (wave 4), retested current support, and continued to rise. The price rose to the level of 140.90, where the 5th wave was completed, and after a re-test resistance, it started to decline. After a slight upward correction, the Japanese Yen continued to move down. Now the uptrend may be completed, and the price may continue to decline. I hope that the Japanese Yen may start a local downtrend, or may make a deep downward correction to support at level 137.35. Therefore, goals will be set at levels 138.50 and 137.35. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
1
AUDJPY Double Sell SignalThe AUDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 21 2022 High. Supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it not only entered yesterday the Resistance Zone of December 13, but also reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. This is a Double Sell signal and as long as candles close below it, we will be selling towards Support 1 and the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down at 85.100. If a 1D candle closes above the Resistance Zone, we will continue buying for a short-while and target Resistance 2 (95.750). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
NZDJPY: starting the final sell wave of the Head and Shoulders.NZDJPY is on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 50.536, MACD = 0.110, ADX = 26.358) as the price is consolidating after a rebound on the 1D MA50. The rejection on the R1 Zone, is technically the Head of the Head and Shoulders pattern, a bearish formation seen on market peaks. This rebound is forming the Right Shoulder. With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows for the whole year, we can't ignore the possibility of a fake Head and Shoulders formation, so the level which invalidates this is the LS overhead Resistance at 85.940. Under this, we will target the 0.236 Fibonacci level (TP = 81.550), which is a standard target for the price after rejections on the R1 Zone since April 2022. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EURJPY Final pump before a long-term sell.The EURJPY pair is about to complete the long-term bullish leg it started within the Channel Up and has already hit the bullish target we set (see chart below) on February 16: The price is now about to complete the final bullish leg to re-hit the top of the Channel Up and price the new Higher High before it gets rejected and start the new long-term bearish leg towards the bottom for the new Higher Low. It needs a 1D RSI Double Top at 70.00 to do that and in those terms it looks very similar to the August 02 - October 21 sequence. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since March 29. When broken, it will be a (rather late) signal to sell. Our long-term target is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and we project contact to be made a 145.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
5
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary stance remained unchanged as they didn't convene, keeping the key policy rate at -0.10% and the 10-year yield at around zero percent due to Yield Curve Control. Several factors contributed to the Yen's weakening, including reassessments of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening outlook, which generally boosted the dollar. The 10-year breakeven rose significantly, hinting at rising inflation expectations in Japan. With inflation hitting new highs and property values also increasing, real yields in Japan are falling. Despite rising inflation, the BoJ's apparent lack of urgency to change its current monetary stance has also influenced the Yen's movement. However, there are suggestions that the BoJ might change its Yield Curve Control without much warning. With possible political factors also in play, the overall view, according to analysts at MUFG, is of limited scope for further rise in the USD/JPY exchange rate, given the Fed's projected pause in June. Japanese Yen Performance in May The Yen's performance against other major currencies in May has been mixed, the Japanese currency saw a depreciation against the US dollar but a strengthening against the Euro. "In May the yen weakened further versus the US dollar in terms of London closing rates from 136.09 to 139.68" says Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities at MUFG. Bank of Japan's Monetary Stance Despite the fluctuations, there hasn't been a change in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The central bank's current stance remained steady with a key policy rate of -0.10% and the ten-year yield managed within a +/- 50bps range due to Yield Curve Control (YCC). "The BoJ did not meet in May and hence its current monetary stance was unchanged with the key policy rate at -0.10% and YCC restraining the 10-year yield within a range of +/-50bps around zero percent," says Halpenny. Factors Influencing the JPY's Exchange Rate Performance Several macroeconomic dynamics influenced the Yen's performance in May. A crucial contributor to these dynamics was a reappraisal of the Federal Reserve's perspective on monetary policy tightening in the US, which resulted in a strengthening of the US dollar. "Firstly, the reassessment of the outlook for monetary tightening by the Fed helped lift the dollar in general in May and that helped propel USD/JPY higher," Halpenny states. He adds, "From close to a zero probability, OIS pricing now indicates around a 50% probability of another rate hike by the Fed." Furthermore, the Yen's value was impacted by domestic economic indicators. There's been a significant increase in real yields (the returns on investments that have been adjusted for the effects of inflation) in Japan, accompanied by a surge in inflation expectations. "Real yields have been falling sharply in Japan with inflation expectations jumping. The 10yr breakeven jumped 20bps in May and reached close to 1.00%, the highest since June 2022," Halpenny notes. Impact of Asset Price Inflation The rising inflation in Japan wasn't just limited to goods and services, but also included a surge in asset prices. A broad spectrum of assets, including the Topix Index, property prices, and land prices, experienced significant gains. The TOPIX, or Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a broad stock market index that tracks all domestic companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), the largest stock market in Japan. It includes a wide range of company sizes and sectors, making it a comprehensive barometer of the overall Japanese equity market. "The Topix Index surged 3.6% in May in contrast to a 0.2% gain in the S&P 500. Property prices and land prices are also moving higher in Japan," says Halpenny. Despite the rising inflation and falling real yields, the BoJ appears untroubled about the situation and is in no hurry to change its monetary policy. "Adding to yen selling is the clear sense of a lack of urgency from Governor Ueda to change the current monetary stance," says Halpenny. However, there are signs that the BoJ might spring a surprise and make quick alterations to its YCC policy. "We suspect the BoJ could pivot quickly and alter YCC without much warning," Halpenny states. In the backdrop of all these factors, the outlook for the Yen seems nuanced. The combination of increasing inflation, changing monetary policy stances, and political factors all paint a picture of restrained potential for further appreciation of the Yen against the US Dollar, especially with a projected pause in the Federal Reserve's policy actions in June. "With the Fed set to pause in June, we see limited scope for USD/JPY to move higher from here," Halpenny concludes.
Short
by thunderpips
3
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUSD/JPY has reversed from a high near 141, largely on the back of shrinking expectations that the Fed would hike in June. That is now priced with a 25% probability rather than a 70% probability attached to it last month. We have noted that the current environment should continue to see interest in carry trade strategies – where the Japanese yen scores poorly. However, USD/JPY looks overvalued relative to the terms of trade story – which is much better for the yen than a year ago. In addition, there is still the risk that the Bank of Japan surprises on 16 June by further normalising its Yield Curve Control policy. That would be a yen positive. And thus it would not be a surprise to see speculator investors trying to re-position short USD/JPY above 140 – even if such a strategy has already proved painful this year.
Short
by thunderpips
2
CHFJPY: Buy this pullback on the 1D MA50.CHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up for the past 12 months and currently pulling back after touching the 2.0 Fibonacci level. With the 1D time frame technically neutral (RSI = 53.315, MACD = 1.420, ADX = 33.250), the closer the price gets to the 1D MA50, the stronger of a buy opportunity it becomes. The fractal of July-August 2022 indicates that the next HH of the Channel Up should be on the 2.618 Fibonacci level at 160.000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
3
AUDJPY: Rejection on 1D MA200 and Channel's Top. Sell.AUDJPY has now had two rejections in less than a week on the 1D MA200, which is also at the top of the six month Channel Down pattern. The 1D technicals have already turned neutral (RSI = 50.136, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 19.362), the 1D RSI has been trading sideways inside a Rectangle while the price was on HH/ HL, which indicates a Bearish Divergence and the confirmation for a complete bearish reversal will come if the price crosses under the 1D MA50. This is technically the bearish leg to the new LL of the Channel Down. We are targeting the S3 (TP = 86.050). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
5
GBPJPY approaching the most optimal sell level.The GBPJPY pair is approaching the Inner Higher Highs trend-line that is in effect for more than a year (since April 20 2022) on a similar Channel Up (green) like the ones of October 2022 and March - April 2022. The 1D RSI is almost overbought, and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since March 28. We are starting a sell sequence with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as our medium-term target with a projected contact at 166.500. Notice how common it is for the pair to peak when the 1D RSI double tops. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
7
USDJPY the week ahead : Three white Soldiers seen at USDJPYThis is a follow-up post of our previous analysis with USDJPY. As we expected the currency pair given breakout at the level of 139/140. It has formed a Doji candle on one day chart, gave confusion to retail traders as that Doji was formed after continuous bull candles and appeared nearby the resistance area. It was able to manage to give a breakout and stay strong above 140 levels. After the breakout, it has formed three white soldiers which is indicating a strong buy towards the said target of 145 / 150. Expecting the first target by the NFP data release date ( First Friday of June month ) Weekly movement Predictor : Monday = Neutral/ Slight Bearish ( US holiday: Memorial Day ) Tue, Wed = Bullish Thursday = Bearish Friday = Ultra Bullish. You can use stop loss or USE trailing Stop loss 136 region where 20EMA is seen.
Long
by Edwindxb
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are likely to be less supportive. It also considers that the Euro-Zone and Chinese outlooks are more favourable, especially given that gas prices have declined sharply. MUFG also expects the Fed will cut rates before the ECB while the Bank of Japan will tighten policy. Monetary policy will inevitably be a key aspect. Although the immediate debate is still surrounding the potential for further interest rate hikes, MUFG expects the debate will switch to the potential for a Federal Reserve policy reversal as the US economy deteriorates. According to the bank; “ The Fed will be cutting rates prior to the ECB. Inflation in Europe is stickier due to energy and food prices and the Fed will have much more scope to respond once economic conditions in the US weaken further from here. ” After an extended period of quantitative easing, MUFG also expects that the ECB quantitative tightening programme through bond sales will put upward pressure on longer-term yields and support the Euro. Global Growth Trends Still Favourable MUFG notes that previous forecasts of an extended UK recession have been revised away and the Euro-Zone has also been resilient. As far as China is concerned it adds; “ Recent data has disappointed, in particular on the manufacturing side of the economy, but pent-up domestic demand likely has further to run which will act as a source of global growth this year. ” Although market sentiment has been more cautious, it expects overall growth dynamics will not favour the US dollar as Asia rebounds. A related issue is the key area of energy prices. The jump in energy costs last year was a key reason why agencies such as the IMF and central banks were so negative surrounding the European economic outlook last year. Gas prices have, however, declined sharply with a slump from over 90% from the peak and close to 2-year lows. Gas storage levels are also at very high levels in historic terms ang MUFG expects storage levels will hit 100% in the summer. In this context, lower gas prices will improve the growth outlook and strengthen the trade outlook. The Bank of Japan has resisted tightening monetary policy, but MUFG notes that the economy is strengthening and inflation has increased. According to MUFG; “ we maintain that YCC has passed its sell-by-date and while it remains unclear whether price stability at 2% can be achieved, the BoJ will still move to widen the band or scrap it completely. ” The bank expects that the yen will strengthen sharply if the Bank of Japan lets yields increase which will drag the dollar lower. Negative Long-Term US Debt Dynamics The immediate focus is on the US debt ceiling and political brinkmanship ahead of early June when the US Treasury will run out of cash. These short-term dynamics are mixed for the US dollar with concerns over the economy, but potential defensive support if risk appetite deteriorates. MUFG focusses on the underlying debt dynamics and the potentially unsustainable situation. MUFG notes that the budget deficit in the first seven months of fiscal 2022/23 amounted to $928bn from $360bn the previous year. On a longer-term view, in considers the debt dynamics will be potentially negative for the US currency. De-Dollarization Hype Although MUFG considers that the de-dollarization rhetoric is rather more hype than substance, there is still the risk that long-term confidence in the dollar will decline with scope for some further increase in Euro and yuan central bank reserve holdings. MUFG also notes that there has been strong central bank gold buying and it expects this trend will continue. The bank also sees a risk that the US use of financial sanctions will discourage official players to hold reserves in the dollar due to fears over asset freezes. MUFG notes that there has been an extended period of Wall Street out-performance, but expects this trend will reverse and net capital flows will be less supportive for the US currency. It adds; “ We see a renewed drop in US equities as investors position more assertively for US recession. ” Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has posted a 32-year high and the German DAX index has hit a record high. It also sees scope for a sustained rebound in emerging-market equities after an extended period of under-performance. It adds; “ A reversal of the current period of deep EM undervaluation poses downside risks for the USD in the medium-term. ” Long-Term Peak, Dollar Overvalued MUFG notes that the dollar last year reached the highest level for over 20 years. It also notes that at the October peak the currency index was 2 standard deviations stronger than the average over the past 40 years. It adds; “ Similar extreme levels of USD overvaluation were last recorded in the early 2000’s and mid-1980’s and subsequently proved to be long-term bearish turning points for the USD. ” The bank also considers that the dollar is substantially overvalued, especially against the yen, increasing the likelihood of mean reversion.
Short
by thunderpips