USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.8%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). Another choppy week for the USD finishing 0.5% stronger on the week but keeping a small range. With a quiet week ahead on the data side, the USD is most likely going to get most of it’s momentum from overall risk flows.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.0% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The calendar is extremely light in the week ahead, which means overall risk sentiment could be the biggest source of momentum (which means keeping a close eye on further equity and bond market sell offs). Keep in mind earnings season gets a bit mor exciting this week and will be important to watch for risk.
JPY
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH
BASELINE
In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market in September by buying JPY and selling Dollars for the first time since 1998. The intervention saw some short-term downside of USDJPY , but as of Friday USDJPY almost reached 149 without any sign of further intervention action. The bias for USDJPY remains higher fundamentally speaking as yield differentials are still very wide, so unless authorities actively intervene the JPY can continue to weaken. The risk of buying is that we buy into interventions, which means risks are high.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI , lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. Watch Core CPI on Friday. Any print above 3.4% would be the highest inflation in 40 years and could spark speculation of less dovish policy action from the BoJ and should be JPY positive.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI , better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. Watch Core CPI on Friday. If Core CPI prints below 3.4% and BoJ officials talk down the rise as mostly transitory it could add further pressure on the JPY.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
Japaneseyen
EURJPY: Important Breakout 🇪🇺🇯🇵
So it turned out that EURJPY set a new higher high higher close on a daily again.
The price easily violated 144.0 - 145.6 resistance cluster yesterday.
The broken structure turned into a demand zone now.
I believe that the pair will keep growing.
Next resistances: 148.0 / 149.5
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USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.8%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). Another choppy week for the USD finishing 0.5% stronger on the week but keeping a small range. With a quiet week ahead on the data side, the USD is most likely going to get most of it’s momentum from overall risk flows.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.0% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The calendar is extremely light in the week ahead, which means overall risk sentiment could be the biggest source of momentum (which means keeping a close eye on further equity and bond market sell offs). Keep in mind earnings season gets a bit mor exciting this week and will be important to watch for risk.
JPY
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH
BASELINE
In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market in September by buying JPY and selling Dollars for the first time since 1998. The intervention saw some short-term downside of USDJPY, but as of Friday USDJPY almost reached 149 without any sign of further intervention action. The bias for USDJPY remains higher fundamentally speaking as yield differentials are still very wide, so unless authorities actively intervene the JPY can continue to weaken. The risk of buying is that we buy into interventions, which means risks are high.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI, lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. Watch Core CPI on Friday. Any print above 3.4% would be the highest inflation in 40 years and could spark speculation of less dovish policy action from the BoJ and should be JPY positive.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI, better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. Watch Core CPI on Friday. If Core CPI prints below 3.4% and BoJ officials talk down the rise as mostly transitory it could add further pressure on the JPY.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
CADJPY: Bullish Trend Continuation 🇨🇦🇯🇵
CADJPY broke and closed above 106.58 - 106.75 horizontal resistance.
I believe that it will push the market higher.
Next resistances: 108 / 110
For entries, consider the underlined blue zone based on a broken structure and a trend line.
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USDJPY: New High Again! What is Next?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Hey traders,
So it turned out that Yen managed to violate 25 years' high easily.
The next structure that I see is around 160 level.
It is based on 30 years' high.
It looks like bulls will keep pushing the pair.
Be prepared!
Good luck next week.
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USDJPY Testing the top of its 5 month Megaphone. Rejection?The USDJPY pair rose aggressively last week, breaking above its September 22 High, the Resistance at the time. The price came on Friday as close as possible to the top (Higher Highs) trend-line of its 5-month Bullish Megaphone pattern. That alone would be enough to reject the uptrend and pull the price back on its own.
But this isn't the only metric pointing towards a rejection. As you see on the RSI and MACD indicators below the chart, the 1D RSI also hit its 5-month Lower Highs trend-line. This is the 2nd Lower High within 5 weeks and when that happened previously, the pair priced its short-term top and pulled-back. Same with the 1D MACD, which just printed a Bullish Cross. As you see when a Bullish Cross took place that close to the Megaphone's top, the price formed a High and pulled-back.
As for how deep a potential pull-back can go? The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the short-term target, with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being the medium-term, having formed the last bottom on August 02. Naturally the pattern is completed on the Higher Lows trend-line.
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GBPJPY: Important Breakout 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance.
The next goal for buyers is 168.15 historical structure.
I am waiting for an occasional test of 163.4 - 163.7 area to buy the pair.
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AUDJPY: Trading Plan For Today 🇦🇺🇯🇵
AUDJPY is coiling around a key resistance.
The price formed a head and shoulders pattern on 1H time frame.
To short with a confirmation, wait for 1H candle close below 92.0 level - its horizontal neckline and a minor rising trend line.
Then a bearish continuation will be expected to 91.55
If the price sets a new high, the setup will be invalid.
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AUDJPY: Still Bearish Outlook 🇦🇺🇯🇵
Hey traders,
AUDJPY still looks bearish to me.
Yesterday, the price retested a recently broken structure resistance
and we saw a positive bearish reaction from that.
I believe that the pair will drop at least to 90.7
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USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
JPY
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH
BASELINE
Japan’s government finally had enough in the past week by intervening to sell USD and buying JPY for the first time since 1998 two weeks ago. Officials were smart enough to keep details low, which has left JPY sellers cautious of more intervention. In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. The currency intervention doesn’t solve all of the currency’s issues, but it also means there could be more safe-haven appeal for the JPY, so seeing how risk holds up after Friday’s flush across major asset classes will be important to watch.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI , lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI , better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
JPY
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH
BASELINE
Japan’s government finally had enough in the past week by intervening to sell USD and buying JPY for the first time since 1998 two weeks ago. Officials were smart enough to keep details low, which has left JPY sellers cautious of more intervention. In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. The currency intervention doesn’t solve all of the currency’s issues, but it also means there could be more safe-haven appeal for the JPY, so seeing how risk holds up after Friday’s flush across major asset classes will be important to watch.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI, lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI, better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
BREAK AND RETEST OF THE TRENDLINEThe simple beginner-old way of trading. A basic break and retest of a downward trendline.
EURJPY Wait for that move!New quarter, new realisation, the actual outcome is, a serious financial event is inevitable. We’ve had central bank interventions from the Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea and the Bank of England. The Fed are hiking firmly to get them into restrictive territory. A hard landing is coming. There’s a whiff of bond market dysfunction and a smell of UK pension funds approaching near collapse. The dominoes are lined up, but rather than a world toppling performance watching pure magic in motion, the elephant will crash into the room and it’ll all go down hard.
CADJPY: Very Bullish Setup 🇨🇦🇯🇵
Hey traders,
After a 2 weeks-long consolidation on a key horizontal support,
CADJPY leaves very bullish clues.
Forming a double bottom formation, the price closed above its neckline.
I believe that the pair will keep growing at least to 108.0.
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USDJPY: Almost There! 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Last week was very bullish for USDJPY again.
The market is closer and closer to the local highs.
I believe that the price may go higher.
The structure that is on focus is 147.0 - 147.7 area based on 1998's low.
The pair will most likely manage to reach that and a correctional movement may initiate then.
Be very careful!
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GBPJPY: Correctional Movement Ahead?! 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY reached a recently broken major trend line.
We see a strong bearish reaction from that with a formation of a bearish engulfing candle.
Taking into consideration that the pair is locally overbought, the price may drop.
Next support - 157.6.
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EURJPY: Pullback From Key Level 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY reached a peculiar zone on Monday:
we see a perfect match between a horizontal demand zone and 618 retracement of the last bullish impulse.
Testing the underlined zone, the market was rejected nicely and formed a doji candle then.
On 4h time frame, a double bottom was formed. The price successfully closed above its neckline.
I think that the pair will keep growing, targets: 141.2 / 142.3
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USDJPY- Time to Sell $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves?The Japanese yen has lost almost a fifth of its value against the USD this year, lifting the price of imports and contributing to an eight-year high in the growth of Japan’s core CPI. Similar situation with EURO and GBP.
Could this be time for a global backlash against the Fed?
Possibly yes, as Masato Kanda, Japan’s leading currency official, said on that Tokyo had “taken decisive action” to address what it warned was a “rapid and one-sided” move in the foreign exchange market. It is the first time Japan had sold dollars since 1998, according to official data.
The U.S. Treasury has very calmly acknowledged the Bank of Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange, but stopped short of endorsing the move.
“The Bank of Japan today intervened in the foreign exchange market. We understand Japan’s action, which it states aims to reduce recent heightened volatility of the yen," a Treasury spokesperson said, when asked about the currency intervention.
Rates:
Japan is now the only country in the world to retain negative rates after the Swiss National Bank lifted its own policy rate by 0.75 percentage points on Thursday, taking it into positive territory and ending Europe’s decade-long experiment with sub-zero rates.
I see FEDS rising to maybe 5% and most likely GBP is expected to hike to probably 6%
The interest rate rises set off heavy selling in government bond markets. US 10-year Treasury yields, a key benchmark for global borrowing costs has soared.
It doesn't look good for anyone, especially smaller nations in debt....
Back to Japan: There is a lot of USD that can be sold and they have expressed the need to a 'currency market intervention'. That can only be expressed in selling USD at the moment.
Yen-buying intervention has been very rare. The last time Japan intervened to support its currency was in 1998, when the Asian financial crisis triggered a yen sell-off and a rapid capital outflow from the region. Before that, Tokyo intervened to counter yen falls in 1991-1992.
Intervening by buying yen is also considered more difficult than by selling it.
In an yen-selling intervention, Japan can keep printing yen to sell to the market. But to buy, it needs to tap its $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves which, while abundant, could quickly dwindle if huge sums are required to influence rates.
Related articles:
www.reuters.com
www.bloomberg.com
NZDJPY: Breakout & Bearish Forecast 🇳🇿🇯🇵
Update for NZDJPY pair.
It turned out, that the price managed to break and close below a key daily support.
82.1 - 83.28 is a solid supply zone now.
The pair will most likely keep falling to 80.0 support.
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NZDJPY: Your Trading Plan 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY dropped to a key daily structure support.
Approaching the underlined structure, the price formed an inverted h&s pattern on 1H time frame.
To buy with a confirmation, we need a bullish breakout of its neckline (82.57 -82.7 area).
Goals will be 83.24 / 83.77
If the price sets a new low, the setup will be invalid.
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💵British Pound/Japanese Yen💵Analyze (9/23/2022)!!!
British Pound/Japanese Yen was able to break the support lines and the support zone and is currently completing its pullback.
I expect the British Pound/Japanese Yen to go down to the trend line, at least.
🔅British Pound/Japanese Yen Analyze (GBPJPY) Timeframe 8H⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsJPY – The Japanese yen soared across the board on Thursday after monetary authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market to boost the battered currency for the first time since 1998.
Nevertheless, despite JPY’s immediate uptick, analysts doubt Japan will be able to sustain a pronounced recovery in the safe-haven.
Indeed, commenting on monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and other major central banks, Wells Fargo argues: “Over the next three to six months or possibly even longer, as long as those diverging paths of monetary policy are still in place and those differences persist, you’ll continue to see a weaker yen.”