Japanese Yen pairs moving in opposite directionsBeginning mid-July, the USD/JPY began its downward trajectory, dropping to 130.39, a strong support level, after creating a high of 139.38. After which, some choppy price action in the first half of August has heavily disguised trader sentiment and a clear direction in the pair.
Now the choppiness may be clearing. The USD/JPY recovered some ground last week, gaining by almost 2.7% in a non-ambiguous push to the upside. The strong bullish momentum the pair experienced meant it was able to break above the 135.000 resistance and continued to rally to 136.90.
The Fisher Transform Indicator signaled a solid bullish move as the fisher line crosses above the trigger line and breaks above the zero line. With this strong indication, if the strong momentum persists, the price targets for traders might be previous peaks including 137.40, 138.700, and last month's high of 130.40.
A more optimistic trader might even be targeting a new high if the US dollar remains strong. However, a break above 136.900 is still needed before the price can target further upside. Failing to do so, however, the price may fall to the resistance level and possibly retest the 135.000 area.
GBPJPY, on the other hand, has been currently moving to the downside with some upside impulses.
The Auto Fib Retracement Indicator shows that the price has rejected at the 50% level at around 163.60. The lower lows that are highlighted should also be noted, indicating that the current price action is currently in a downtrend, and a possibility for a new lower low may be seen this week if the price breaks below the 160.500 support area.
The price, however, needs to break the 23.6% level first before continuing the move to the downside and filling the wick from the second of August, which has a current low of 159.44, and sits at the 0% pivot point of the Auto Fib Retracement Indicator.
Japaneseyen
$USDJPY - 2 Important Zones AheadTraders, USDJOY has been very bullish over months and now it is truing to go back to the previous highs. In the process it is creating a FCP Pattern which can push the price down at least for a correction. These are the 2 zones that we should be watching for trading opportunities.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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NZDJPY Sell opportunityThe NZDJPY pair has been trading sideways within a Resistance and Support Zone since the June 08 High, using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the pivot. The longer it does though, the more the MACD on the 1W time-frame is losing momentum and we may see a strong move downwards.
In fact this pattern resembles the March - June 2021 sequence that eventually broke down to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) initially and the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) eventually. There is still a Support level at 79.500 but we will be targeting 82.000 and 81.000 in extension on the medium-term.
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CADJPY going lower for the next 2 monthsThe CADJPY pair has broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on July 29 and has stayed below it since then, being unable to made a break-out and return to the bullish trend of the past year. The longer it fails to do so, the more selling accumulation we will see. In fact both in terms of RSI and MACD, this resembles the sequence of June - September 2021, where the price again fell below the 1D MA50 and being unable to recover it, it made consistent Lower Lows.
Based on the RSI Lower Highs and MACD Cross symmetries, it appears that, relative to the 2021 pattern, we are still near the start of this bearish move. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA50 (red trend-line) cluster, which has been the pair's long-term Support Zone since November 2020. On the other hand, a candle close above the 1D MA50 can provide a short-term rise towards the Higher Highs trend-line where an even more comfortable sell position can be taken.
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CHFJPY excellent short-term sell opportunityThe CHFJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the June 29 High being at the moment near its Lower Highs (top) trend-line. This is an ideal sell opportunity on a tight SL targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the MA support since the October 08 2021 break-out.
As a result only a closing below it, can justify further selling, in which case the target will be either the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or the September 20 2021 Higher lows trend-line. Until then, expect trading within the Channel Down. On a side-note, there are increasing bias towards a longer-term bearish trend, as the RSI on the 1W time-frame, has been on Lower Highs since its April 25 High, indicating a potential trend change.
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GBPJPY: Bearish Outlook 🇬🇧🇯🇵
Hey traders,
GBPJPY is trading within a wide horizontal trading range on 4H.
Reaching its resistance, the price formed a double top formation.
Its neckline breakout confirms a local bearish sentiment.
I expect a bearish move to 161.41
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AUDJPY Low risk tradesThe AUDJPY pair has been trading within a bullish Channel for more than a year and is currently on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI Lower Highs sequence prompts to the similar structure of November 2021 - February 2022, which made the pair break upwards when the RSI Lower Highs broke eventually. As a result, a similar RSI break-out should be enough to target the top of the bullish Channel around 99.000.
However since the June 08 top, we see a shorter-term Channel Down forming with clear Lower Highs and Lower Lows. With the price that close to the Lower Highs, it offers excellent Risk/ Reward ratios both on the upside break-out and the rejection, which should target the Lower Lows trend-line above (or near) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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EURJPY keeps following our plan. Strong buy ahead.The EURJPY pair has been trading exactly as the plan we first posted here a month ago:
As you see, the break below the Channel Up, along with the 1W MACD Bearish Cross, kick-started a sell sequence that eventually found Support and rebounded exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This continues to be a similar pattern with that of May - October 2020. As a result, when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, our target will be the Resistance Zone (144.00) with a long-term extension 150.00.
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USD/JPY Next Possible Movement USD ( U.S Dollar ) / JPY ( Japanese Yen ) Technical Analysis Chart Update
Time Frame - H1
According to Long Time Frame - LTF
H-4 It is following the Elliot waves in Bearish Trend and Has completed Impulsion and its Correction
H-1 It is following the Rising Wedge Pattern and Rejecting from the Lower Trend Line ( LTL )
According to Short Time Frame - STF
Its is following the Elliot waves and it will complete its 5th wave at Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
It is also Following Bearish Channel for correction and can Follow Short Buy Trend
2022/8/8 12:29 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138
Currently: Resisted at 137.3 and retraced back to 137
Reaction: Consolidating at this 138.3 level , its next support zone is at 138.5
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USDJPY: Pullback From Key Level 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Hey traders,
USDJPY reached a strong daily supply area 2 days ago.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that structure on lower time frames,
I spotted a double top on a 4H with a confirmed neckline breakout.
I already shorted the pair.
Goals: 132.34 / 131.05
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USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch 🇺🇸🇯🇵
As I predicted, USDJPY bounced nicely yesterday.
Here is my latest structure analysis for the pair and key levels to watch:
Support 1: 130.4 - 131.6 area.
Support 2: 126.35 - 126.85 area.
Resistance 1: 134.25 - 135.55 area.
Resistance 2: 137.4 - 137.85 area.
Resistance 3: 138.86 - 139.36 area.
Consider these structure for pullback/breakout trading.
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USDJPY: Oversold Market & Pullback 🇺🇸🇯🇵
On a today's live stream with my students, we discussed USDJPY pair.
The pair looks too oversold at the moment.
The market was steadily falling within a falling channel and its resistance went broken today.
I expect a pullback now.
Goals: 131.56 / 131.9
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2022/8/3 11:49 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 135.6
Currently: Resisted at 135.1 and retraced back to 134.8
Reaction: Consolidating at this 135.9 level , its next support zone is at 136.5
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EURJPY: Breakout & Bearish Continuation 🇪🇺🇯🇵
It turned out that EURJPY managed to break and close below a solid daily demand cluster.
The next support on focus is 132.66 - 133.24 area.
I believe that the price will manage to reach that structure soon.
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2022/8/2 11:29 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 134.3
Currently: Consolidating at this 134.8 level , its next support zone is at 135.1
Reaction: Resisted at 134 and retraced back to 133.8
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EURJPY analysis: approaching a dangerous zoneThe yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow.
The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy, though the actual change is unlikely to occur anytime soon.
In addition to the dollar, the Japanese yen is strongly regaining ground also against the euro, with EUR/JPY now trading at late May levels and down about 6% from June highs.
The appreciation of the yen against the euro occurred despite the ECB's 50-basis-point rate hike in July, leaving the BoJ as the only major central bank that has not yet raised rates. Japan has remained more isolated from worrying energy risks in Europe, where the clouds of an impending economic recession are gathering.
The 10-year yield spread between Germany and Japan has fallen to 0.6%, the lowest since mid-May, as Bund yields have collapsed in response to data indicating a bleak economic picture in the Eurozone.
Technically speaking,tThe formation of a triple top at the end of June ended the EUR/JPY currency pair's multi-year uptrend, and the breakout of the neckline support at 137-137.5 solidified the trend reversal bearish pattern. The RSI is dangerously pointing down, but it still doesn't show that technical conditions are oversold. The next level of support is seen at psychological 134, followed by 132.7 (May 12 lows).
Japanese Yen E-mini Futures (J71!), Type : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.007784
Pivot: 0.007629
Support : 0.007490
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and broken out of the descending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.007629 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.007784 where the pullback resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.007490 where the pullback support is.
Fundamentals: Since it was stated that the central bank won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it, we have a bullish view on the Japanese Yen.