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Japaneseyen

Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Japanese Yen USD/JPY Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Japanese Yen Futures or USD/JPY in the Forex Market. The Japanese Yen Futures follows an annual seasonal pattern also correlated with other markets including stocks and bonds. Also the Bank of Japan can heavily influence this market. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of the USD/JPY and Japanese Yen Futures. Enjoy, Trade Well Clifford
CME:6J1!
by TradeTheIndex
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.3% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). As STIRs reprice lower, we are expecting that to act as a possible short-term negative driver for the USD. Even though lower STIRs should be negative for the USD, as a lot of hikes have been baked in, the growth concerns sparked further risk off concerns this past week, which supported the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (this week’s ISM Services and NFP) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Apart from this past week, the USD has reacted cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad ISM Services PMI or NFP data this week could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close prior highs which acted as local tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed due to higher recession risks. The opposite side to that though is that further concerns about the economy sees more safe haven inflows into the Dollar. Positioning is stretched, so we would prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalyst that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, the bank has once again at their June meeting stayed stubbornly dovish keeping yields capped at 0.25%. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities , so continued rise in oil prices has added to downside and eroded some safe haven appeal. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture remains bleak for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their June meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. Take note that positioning has been stretched (tactically and CFTC) for some time, which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside. Also, with this past week’s strong push lower in US10Y , there could be some opportunities for USDJPY downside ahead.
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.3% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). As STIRs reprice lower, we are expecting that to act as a possible short-term negative driver for the USD. Even though lower STIRs should be negative for the USD, as a lot of hikes have been baked in, the growth concerns sparked further risk off concerns this past week, which supported the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (this week’s ISM Services and NFP) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Apart from this past week, the USD has reacted cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad ISM Services PMI or NFP data this week could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close prior highs which acted as local tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed due to higher recession risks. The opposite side to that though is that further concerns about the economy sees more safe haven inflows into the Dollar. Positioning is stretched, so we would prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalyst that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, the bank has once again at their June meeting stayed stubbornly dovish keeping yields capped at 0.25%. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so continued rise in oil prices has added to downside and eroded some safe haven appeal. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation, faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture remains bleak for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their June meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. Take note that positioning has been stretched (tactically and CFTC) for some time, which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside. Also, with this past week’s strong push lower in US10Y, there could be some opportunities for USDJPY downside ahead.
by thunderpips
1
Really important monthly close for USDJPYAs deflationary forces are taking over and bonds are rising, USDJPY is a key FX pair to be watching. Why? Because many players dumped Yen and their JGBs, as they expected higher and higher inflation and bond yields in the US. Now that US rates are coming down, JPY is becoming more attractive. Not only that, but JGBs are becoming more attractive as there is a smaller supply out there relative to a few months ago, while there are already lots of traders/funds who have been betting that the Japanese bond market would collapse. As deflation is coming back and Japan really has all the characteristics of a deflationary economy, buying some JGBs and Yen wouldn't be a bad idea. USDJPY swept a major high a few days ago, and then it swept it again today. A second failure and a monthly / quarterly close below that high, could be a major sign that more downside could follow in the short term. In the long term I am fairly certain that the USD will appreciate a lot more than the JPY for multiple reasons, therefore this is just a short term play. Anything from 131 and down to 125 is possible for USDJPY in Q3-Q4 2022, especially when the Fed is forced to reverse course and cut rates & resume QE. For quite some time I believe that CPI prints will be negative MoM. I also believe that the 2022 CPI print will be 4%, and that next June the YoY print will be 0 or negative. All that in the US of course, and of course I could be wrong. We could also see deflationary pressures take place and the USD rise against most currencies during that deflationary period / episode. Maybe we have a major crash at some point, one that would lead the Fed to take action once again, something that could send the dollar a lot lower. In case the market continues higher, and closes this week and next week above 135.7, then it is safe to assume that we'll be going higher regardless of the macro environment. Japan is lacking energy and food production, while it has worse demographics and debt that the US. Therefore it is very hard to see how the Yen doesn't depreciate against the US dollar. This means that every dip below in the 125-131 region is an opportunity to go long.
by BitcoinMacro
EURJPY: Potential Bullish Continuation Explained 🇪🇺🇯🇵 EURJPY is accumulating around 143.85 - 144.25 horizontal resistance. The price has already set 3 equal highs respecting that. Taking into consideration that the pair is trading in a strong bullish trend, I believe that we will see a breakout attempt soon. Wait for a breakout of the underlined yellow zone, daily candle close above that will confirm a breakout. A bullish continuation to 147.0 level will be expected then. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.0074895 Pivot: 0.0074195 Support : 0.0073570 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.0074195 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.0073570 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0074895 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: Yen weakness could continue, evident with the USDJPY rebounding from support to trade above 135 overnight, giving us a weak bearish bias towards yen.
CME:6J1!Short
by Genesiv
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.0076510 Pivot: 0.0074900 Support : 0.0073605 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.0074900 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.0076510 in line with swing high resistance and 100% fibonacci projection . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price drop to the 1st support at 0.0073605 in line with the swing low support. Fundamentals: Despite key figures commenting about how a weaker Yen is deterimental to the Japanese economy, the BoJ’s policy path is still divergent to other central banks, giving us a bearish bias for the Japanese Yen.
CME:6J1!Long
by Genesiv