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GBPJPY Sell opportunityThe GBPJPY pair has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S), which is typically a technical Bearish Reversal formation. The Double Top initiated the first wave down, where all candles got contained above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) causing a 0.5 Fib rebound. Now the formation may see the second wave down. If the Support Zone breaks, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. A 1D candle close below should be enough to finally test the Higher Lows trend-line for the first time since March 08. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
6
BSV now trading in Japan for the first time ever on HuobiHuobi Japan has begun listing Bitcoin’s native asset, BSV, on its trading platform. It’s the first time BSV has gained a listing on one of the world’s most lucrative digital asset trading markets. Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, and the yen (JPY) is the world’s third-most traded fiat currency. The country’s share of the world’s (fiat) FX trading market has been estimated at around 4.5%. FTX interim CEO Sam Bankman-Fried recently suggested Japan’s digital asset trading market could be worth US$1 trillion. Both Huobi’s announcement and Bankman-Fried’s prediction are a few weeks old now, and Huobi’s BSV launch is landing smack in the middle of one of the digital asset industry’s worst price crashes. Bitcoin fans probably could have wished for this historic event to have happened at a more favorable time for the trading markets—and the global economy in general. However, just yesterday, BSV bucked the overall market trend by rising 10% as most others fell, possibly due to traders anticipating a growth opportunity. (For the record, Bankman-Fried remains bullish about the market and has promised to expand his businesses rather than downsizing as other large names like Coinbase have done.) Japan has been generally permissive of digital assets and the development of blockchain technology over the years. However, this has come with heavy regulation of exchange platforms and the assets they are allowed to list. These regulations have limited Japan-based digital asset trading to an exclusive range of coins and tokens that often reflected sentiments at the time the rules were made in preferences of industry groups like Ethereum Classic, BCH, and Japan’s own Monacoin. Until this year, it did not include BSV. Now that it does, and a large exchange has begun trading it, any visible demand for BSV could see other Japanese exchanges follow suit. Gaining regulatory acceptance from Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) and an exchange listing was the result of the BSV Blockchain Association’s consultation and lobbying. The Association’s General Counsel and Chief of Staff, Marcin Zarakowski, has said the current introduction of SPV standards to BSV will help overcome any concerns regarding transaction security. Previously, the sheer volume of transactions on the BSV network had made some exchanges hesitant to support the asset.
BLong
by Kenneth4333333
JPY/USD Breaking Down the Macro Range: ObservationsJPY/USD: It’s not often that a macro breakdown of this magnitude presents itself, but Dollar/Yen is providing the opportunity to monitor and learn from just such a breakdown in real time. One of the more interesting mysteries of the last two decades has been the durability of the JPY. · Years of extremely accommodative monetary policy, Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), Yield Curve Control (YCC) and Quantitative Easing (QE) have thoroughly disrupted fair value across JPY asset classes. · Government Debt at 266% of GDP is more than double the threshold above which countries are vulnerable to sovereign default. For more on sovereign debt levels see Reinhart and Rogoff “This Time is Different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.” A must read in my opinion. · They are an island nation devoid of energy assets. Higher energy prices increase the need for to swap Yen for Dollars in order to transact. While monetary policy has created the greatest macro danger, growing yield differentials and rising oil prices represent more immediate concerns. In particular, the YCC policy that pins Japanese 10 year rates at 25 bps even as rates are rising sharply across the rest of the developed markets is creating massive capital outflows. The YCC policy creates an arbitrage between Japanese and other DM rates. · A Japanese citizen can swap JPY for DX and buy a 10 year US Treasury at +300 bps carry advantage. · While collecting 300 bps in positive carry they own a currency (DX) far less likely to depreciate. Particularly as the Fed is tightening policy relative to the BOJ. · If DX appreciates, they can add the appreciation to the carry. This same dynamic can also be seen in institutional flows. With the yield differential so wide, the Yen Carry trade popular prior to the financial crisis is being implemented again. Investors can borrow Yen at very low rates, swap for higher yielding currencies and earn the carry. Many of us old guys remember the extreme pain generated by the unwind of this trade. This arbitrage results in significant outward bound capital flows but in spite of the Yen weakness the BOJ continues to reiterate its support of the YCC program. It should also be remembered that the BOJ and other official Japanese institutions have acquired so much of Japan’s sovereign float, that even if they lose their resolve and end YCC, rates probably won't rise enough to totally offset the rate differential. I suspect that a rally with this as a fundamental catalyst, while violent, would likely fail long before reversing the recent damage. Importantly the fundamental pressures add weight to the technical breakdown occurring on longer time frame charts. · JPY/USD is breaking out of a wide, upwardly slanting channel that has acted as support for over 30 years. · After testing the bottom of the channel, the market was unable to attract buyers and moved mostly laterally along the channel bottom. This lethargic behavior suggested a near complete lack of buying pressure/interest. · The six years spent moving laterally stored tremendous energy. Remember that the more time spent in a range, the more potential for movement exists. In essence, six years of buyers are now trapped. I would expect that these trapped buyers will now be sellers into strength and drive declines. · Wyckoff called this stored energy “cause” or count. The size of the count directly relates to the size of subsequent move as it reflects years of positioning, much of which must be adjusted for a new price regime. · While I haven’t done so for this piece, Point and Figure counts can be used to derive targets based on the width of the count. You can see an example of how this is done on the IWM post linked below. · The width of the channel (MM1 - MM2) can be projected lower (MM3) to arrive at an initial estimate of the potential move. This could create a measured move target as low as .003. · There is a monthly perspective MACD sell signal. The solid sell signal comes after multiple years of what I think of as flutter (I think George Lane first used the term to describe the behavior in his stochastic oscillator). · Following periods of oscillator flutter, a clear oscillator buy/sell signal coupled with a clear violation of price support/resistance can be extremely reliable. In shorter term perspectives the market would normally be considered oversold (both price and momentum). But breakouts from large macro ranges attract strong handed sellers and often oscillators and price both behave differently than they do in normal markets. This is particularly true in the early in the move. Specifically, oscillator readings become meaningless and short term price targets are regularly exceeded. This makes them extremely difficult and risky to trade in. At this point, to turn bullish on JYPD will require the development of overtly bullish price and volume behaviors or clear bottoming behaviors. Until then I will treat this as a bear market and use strategies and tactics appropriate for that environment. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
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Education
by CMT_Association
30
NZDJPY Sideways with new High towards the end of the year.The NZDJPY pair almost hit its yearly High two days ago and this 2 day rejection illustrates that this was the medium-term top. As noted in our last analysis, this is roughly replicting the March - September 2021 sequence, where the pair gave two solid sell and two buy opportunities before making a new High. Right now the price should pull-back on the medium-term towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was tested and held on the last Low. By the end of the year we should have a Higher High within this Fibonacci Channel. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
CADJPY Top confirmed. Huge success with previous pattern.The CADJPY pair has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone as outlined by our last analysis almost two months ago: As you see the Fibonacci Channel helped to very efficiently identify the pressure points and the price moved exactly as per our trading strategy. As seen, it found support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded, imitating the pattern of March 15 - May 15 2021. Yesterday it almost hit the Higher Lows trend-line of the Megaphone and is being rejected currently. As the 1W RSI Double topped in the same fashion as late May, it is more likely that this was the top on the medium-term. It is now that the Fibonacci levels will come in play again and if the pattern continues to replicate the 2021 one, expect a strong correction during the summer months towards the 1.5 Fib level, were the price should find support within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), or earlier if they rise faster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
4
TRADE OF THE WEEK | Trend-Following Trading in Action 💰 Hey traders, GBPJPY is trading in a long-term bullish trend. Higher lows are perfectly respecting a rising trend line on 1H. Once the trend line was tested I was looking for a confirmation to buy the pair. My confirmation was a double bottom formation. I bought the market on a retest of its broken neckline. Then the market started to grow sharply! I managed to catch a very nice winner with a trailing stop. Did you manage to catch that move? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2