USDJPY - 2 SCENARIOS 📉📈Hello Traders !
On The Daily Time Frame, The USDJPY Reached The Resistance Level (151.908 - 151.318).
So, We Have 2 Scenarios:
BEARISH SCENARIO📉:
If The Market Breaks The Support Level (150.261 - 150.693) and Closes Below That,
We Will See a Bearish Move📉
TARGET: 147.150🎯
BULLISH SCENARIO📈:
If The Price Breaks and Closes Above The Resistance Level ((151.908 - 151.318),
We Will See a Bullish Move📈
TARGET: 154.620🎯
Japaneseyen
AUDJPY: Today's decline is a buy opportunity.AUDJPY is borderline bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.140, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 22.883) as today it has erased the gains of almost the past 3 days. As it approaches the 1D MA50, it is turning into a buy opportunity inside a double Channel Up pattern. At 99.000 we are turning bullish again and will aim for a +2.65% increase (TP = 101.700) for a HH.
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JPY has had 180 next few years written over it for a while nowI wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well
I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts below) but one of these days in the not too distant future I will
The cyan channel that I spotted out when I looked at it last looks like it's the upper half of a bigger channel
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar.
A Perfect Storm for the Yen
Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline:
• Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders.
• Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive.
Intervention: A Looming Wildcard
The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue.
Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress?
The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite:
• Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly.
• Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure.
Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance
The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market:
• Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government.
• Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen.
• Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
China - U.S. War Preparations!We are still at the start phase of the China - U.S. war & seeing it slowly brew into something bigger. 2025 - 2026 should be when we see a full out war, weather that's a physical war, economical war or a cyber war. Ahead of this war it'll be interesting to see how China prepares for sanctions from western nations;
⭕️Which financial asset classes they divert into.
⭕️Which industries they become reliant on.
⭕️Which countries they turn into allies.
USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
next week to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
150.8 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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GBPJPY Bullish Long side Robbery on GJ BankHola Traders,
This is our Day Trade master plan to Heist Bullish side of GBP/JPY BANK . my dear Looters U can enter at the any point above my entered area, Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Caution area, If There is any Bad news it make our heist very sad and if the news is favorable for us then we can continue our looting from there with help of trailing stop.
My dear Robbers please book some partial money it will manage our risk. Be safe and be careful.
USDJPY: Your Trading Plan Ahead of FED 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
151.0 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NZDJPY Channel Up Buy SignalThe NZDJPY pair is on a Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the long-term support. In fact the latter has been holding since June 02 2023.
The minimum Bearish Leg decline within this pattern has been -3.77% so having almost completed this fall during the current pull-back, we now turn bullish on this pair, targeting 94.500 (+5.44% rise, which has been the minimum % increase of Bullish Legs within this pattern).
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CADJPY Triangle break-out buyThe CADJPY pair delivered us a very strong buy opportunity last time we made a buy call on it (December 22 2023, see chart below) :
Moving back to the 1D time-frame, the pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 07 2023 Low. Currently on its 2nd Bullish Leg, the price has entered a Triangle consolidation, similar to the pattern of January - February.
So far the fractals appear to be quite identical as following a +3.34%, the price pulled-back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is at the moment holding. As long as it continues to do so, we expect a bullish break-out similar to February's towards the -0.382 Fib extension, hence our Target is 113.500.
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GBPJPY Wait for the 1day MA50 to break.GBPJPY is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone.
Every time the 1day MA50 broke downwards, the pattern gave a sell signal with the minimum decline on the Bearish Wave being -4.17%.
If the price does break under the 1day MA50, sell and target 185.500.
The 1day RSI is already on a Bearish Divergence.
Previous chart:
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USDJPY Buy the Resistance break out.USDJPY has reached but yet failed to cross over Resistance A (151.950) since last Wednesday.
The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up so wait until a 1day candle closes over Resistance A and buy the break out.
Target 155.500, which would be a symmetric bullish wave as the first one of this Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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CHFJPY Hit the 1D MA200 after 1 year!The CHFJPY pair almost hit the 172.500 Target that we set on our previous call (December 19 2023, see chart below):
Since then it has pulled back significantly, giving rise to a new Channel Up pattern. The major development is that it is about to touch the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 06 2023.
We are prepared to buy after it breaks, at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, or if the 1D RSI hits the bottom of its Channel Down first, and target the Higher Highs at 173.500.
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AUDJPY Hit the top of the Channel Up.The AUDJPY pair has recently hit our long-term bullish Target of 99.300, which we set on our last trading idea (December 18 2023, see chart below):
That was at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) and the 1.136 Fibonacci extension of the 9-month Channel Up. We are technically expecting a pull-back now towards the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up and our Target is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 95.600.
If however the price breaks above the Higher High and the Channel Up, we will have a formation bullish break-out and as a result we will take the small loss on the short and go long instead, targeting the 3.0 Fibonacci extension at 102.700. In that case we will be expecting a rally similar to June 2023, which led to the creation of the current Channel Up.
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Long USDJPY as Bank of Japan Raises Rates!The hedge fund industry's short weakness on the yen is creating a fantastic opportunity for us to long USDJPY! As the Bank of Japan prepares to raise rates, now is the perfect time to capitalize on this trend and potentially make some significant profits.
The recent weakness in hedge fund shorts on the yen has created a favorable environment for us to take advantage of. With the Bank of Japan signaling a potential rate hike shortly, the USDJPY pair is poised for a strong upward movement. This is a golden opportunity for us to get in on the action and potentially ride the wave of a bullish trend.
I urge you all to consider taking a long position on USDJPY and seize this opportunity to potentially profit from the upcoming rate hike. Don't miss out on this chance to make some serious gains in the forex market!
Let's make the most of this exciting opportunity and maximize our potential profits together. Get ready to long USDJPY and ride the wave of success as the Bank of Japan raises rates!
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EURJPY Approaching Channel Up top. Bearish signal.The EURJPY pair is very close to our 168.000 Target that we set on our last analysis (December 13 2023, see chart below):
That is at the top of the 2-year Channel Up that started on the March 07 2022 Low. Technically after that, it calls for a short-term trend-reversal. As a result we modify the bullish Target to 167.400 and then will go for a short-term sell, targeting 164.500.
This is because we have identified a short-term RSI bearish divergence pattern, which when the RSI in on Lower Highs and the pair on Higher Highs (i.e. Bearish Divergence), the price rises to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and then pulls back to the 1.0.
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USD/JPY at Critical Juncture: Evaluating Peaks and Intervention The USD/JPY has surged to multi-year highs in the 151.000s amid a broader strengthening of the US Dollar and shifting trade dynamics, exerting downward pressure on the Japanese Yen. Currently positioned at 151.590, the pair finds itself within a robust resistance zone, hinting at a potential retracement following the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting.
As the USD/JPY approaches a critical intervention zone, historically monitored by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for FX market stabilization, there arises a likelihood of resistance to further appreciation. This intervention zone, noted by analysts at MUFG, underscores the BoJ's proactive stance in curbing excessive Yen weakness beyond the 150.000 threshold.
The proximity to this intervention zone implies a possible inflection point for the USD/JPY, suggesting a pending reversal or consolidation in the near term. Such dynamics highlight the intricate interplay between central bank interventions and market sentiment, shaping the trajectory of currency pairs like the USD/JPY.
GBPJPY: Head and Shoulders formed. Sell signal.GBPJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.345, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 29.640) as the recent bullish run came to an end on the HH trendline. For now the 1D MA50 held but the peak pattern formed is a Head and Shoulders. The 1D MACD is on a Bearish Cross, so the short signal is complete. Our target is the S1 level, potentially a contact with the 1D MA200 (TP = 185.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDJPY: Excellent buy opportunity.USDJPY is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.212, MACD = -0.110, ADX = 47.052) but not only is the price making a rebound on the 1D MA200 but the 1D RSI is also staging a rebound from nearly oversold levels, much like it did on July 13th 2023. All this price action is taking place inside a long term Channel Up pattern, so this is a buy opportunity with significant upside potential. Our target is the top of the Channel (TP = 160.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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