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USD/JPY Dynamics: Fed Speculations, CPI Impact, and Bearish SignUSD/JPY Dynamics: Fed Speculations, CPI Impact, and Bearish Signals The Japanese Yen (JPY) has marked a second consecutive day of gains against its American counterpart, recovering from a one-month low following the release of US consumer inflation figures. Despite a slightly hot headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting prolonged higher interest rates, market speculations hint at a potential shift in the Fed's policy stance in March. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for US Treasury bond yields and exerts pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the downside for the USD/JPY pair is tempered by the belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its ultra-dovish stance. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, our attention remains on the price for a potential new bearish impulse. The current trading scenario places the price within the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci zone, with a notable rebound from the 61.8% level following the CPI release adding confidence to our bearish setup. Market Dynamics: The slightly elevated US CPI and ongoing discussions among Fed officials have left markets in anticipation of a prolonged period of higher interest rates. Despite this sentiment, the prevailing expectation of a policy shift in March remains, acting as a drag on US Treasury bond yields and impacting the USD. However, the downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair is cushioned by the prevailing belief that the BoJ is unlikely to deviate from its ultra-dovish monetary policy stance. Conclusion: The JPY's recent strength against the USD reflects the intricate dance between US inflation data, Fed policy speculation, and the Bank of Japan's stance. While technical indicators point to the potential for a new bearish impulse in the USD/JPY pair, the overarching dynamics in the global currency markets will continue to influence its trajectory. Traders will closely monitor key economic indicators and central bank communications to gauge the evolving landscape for the JPY and USD. Our preference Short positions below 147.70 with entry at 145.00 and targets at 143.00 & 141.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid BoJ Policy...USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid BoJ Policy Uncertainty The USD/JPY pair struggles to find upward momentum, remaining entrenched in a bearish trajectory after touching the 50% Fibonacci level from the previous swing high. As the market digests the aftermath of the New Year's Day earthquake in Japan and contemplates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decisions, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces downward pressure. Despite a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), the USD/JPY pair hovers just below the mid-144.00s as the European session commences on Monday. Technical Analysis: V-Shaped Reversal Potential Our analysis reveals a compelling scenario on the higher timeframe, suggesting the possibility of a V-shaped reversal. The price rebounded precisely from the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area, situated below the 200 Moving Average. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides in the overbought territory, supporting our bearish continuation hypothesis. Upcoming Event: Japan's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) The upcoming week kicks off with the release of Japan's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical event that could influence the market's perception of the BoJ's monetary policy. Investors closely monitor inflation figures as they seek clues regarding the BoJ's stance on its existing hyper-easy monetary policy. Japan's Tokyo CPI for the year-ended December is forecasted to slip from 2.3% to 2.1%, reflecting potential challenges for the BoJ to meet its 2% inflation target. Conclusion: In the midst of ongoing uncertainty surrounding the BoJ's policy decisions and Japan's inflation dynamics, the USD/JPY pair remains in a bearish momentum. Our analysis suggests the potential for a bearish continuation, as indicated by the V-shaped reversal scenario and the RSI signaling overbought conditions. Traders are advised to stay vigilant, with Japan's inflation data likely to shape market sentiment and guide future decisions. Our preference Short positions below 147.70 with entry at 145.00 and targets at 143.00 & 141.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY: Earthquake Fallout and Technical Signals Shape Trading USD/JPY: Earthquake Fallout and Technical Signals Shape Trading Dynamics The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces early selling pressure on the first trading day of 2024, weighed down by the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in central Japan. This unfortunate event, coupled with a recovering US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury bond yields, contributes to the USD/JPY pair distancing itself from recent lows. Earthquake Impact and Thin Trading Volumes: The seismic tremors in central Japan cast a shadow on the domestic currency, influencing market sentiment in a day marked by relatively thin trading volumes. The immediate impact on the Japanese Yen underscores the complexities of external factors impacting currency movements, adding a layer of unpredictability to the trading landscape. Technical Analysis and Bearish Signals: Examining the technical landscape, the USD/JPY pair remains ensconced within a bearish channel. Notably, the price appears to be consolidating in a range suggestive of a Bearish flag. Analysts are eyeing this pattern as a precursor to a potential fresh bearish impulse, particularly around the resistance area highlighted in the chart. The prevailing idea is one of bearish continuation in the short term. BoJ Policy Expectations: Amid the current dynamics, it's important to consider the expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy stance. While external factors weigh on the Yen, expectations of an imminent policy shift by the BoJ act as a mitigating factor, potentially limiting deeper losses for the Japanese currency. Our preference Short positions below 143.000 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Usdjpy looks to break further...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. As mentioned in my previous 2 articles which you can find the link below, daily trend of UJ seems to be turning lower. though the japanese boj has yet to carry out much actions, chart is still showing bearish signal from daily to h1. bias still to short. Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution..USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution Fuel Bearish Momentum The USD/JPY pair continues to experience losses as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, influenced by the dovish outlook presented by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the first quarter of 2024. The recent decline gained momentum on Friday, triggered by softer domestic consumer inflation data, amplifying uncertainty regarding the potential timing of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening its ultra-loose policy. Minutes from the BoJ's October monetary policy meeting further indicated a commitment to maintaining the current accommodative stance, putting additional downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Market Developments: As the USD/JPY pair trades lower around 140.70 during the early European session on Thursday, attention is drawn to the psychological areas of 141.00 and 141.600, which now pose as immediate resistance levels. The next significant barrier is identified at the 142.00 level, suggesting that the pair faces an uphill struggle in its attempt to reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment. Technical Analysis and Correlation: Building on our technical analysis and considering the correlation with the EUR/USD pairs, the outlook for USD/JPY points towards a continuation of the bearish momentum. The dovish Fed stance and cautious BoJ approach contribute to the prevailing downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, emphasizing the potential for further losses in the near term. Looking Ahead: The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the BoJ's policy tightening and the dovish tone from the Fed are likely to remain key drivers for the USD/JPY pair. Traders and investors will closely monitor any developments in monetary policy discussions and economic indicators that could offer insights into the future direction of the currency pair. As the USD/JPY pair faces resistance levels and grapples with the repercussions of dovish central bank outlooks, the bearish momentum seems poised to persist. The interplay between the Federal Reserve's stance and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach sets the stage for continued volatility in the pair. As market participants navigate these dynamics, the focus remains on potential opportunities arising from the evolving conditions in the currency markets. Our preference Short positions below 143.00 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
NZDJPY Pump and dump in action.The NZDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a pivot point as of late. We can see a diverging (dotted) Channel Up that has priced the recent Higher Highs as well as being supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has rebounded on the 39.90 Support level, which is where the last two Higher Lows has been priced, while the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. This is a buy signal and our target is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the dotted Channel Up at 91.800. We are waiting for a sell after the 1D RSI gets rejected near the 73.40 Resistance, and we will target the bottom of the longer term Channel Up at 88.900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDJPY Bottom of Bullish Megaphone. Long-term buy.USDJPY is on the MA200 (1d) on top of the Rising Support Zone. That is the bottom layer of the long term Bullish Megaphone pattern, a very strong rebound range. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price and as long as the price stays on the Support Zone. Targets: 1. 151.980 (Resistance 1, the previous High). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has formed a Double Bottom exactly on the oversold 30.00 level. An additional strong buy signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
CADJPY Confirmed buy signalThe CADJPY pair has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up since the March 2020 market bottom. The recent rejection on the 1.5 Fibonacci level back to the 0.5 show it test and hold an important Support, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has only broken once in 3 years (since November 2020) and that was during last year's inflation crisis. As long as it holds, it is a strong buy opportunity and evidence for that is the 1W RSI which has printed the same pattern (Channel Down break into a rebound) as the September 26 2022 and August 16 2021 lows. Both initiated rebounds that hit their prior Resistance levels. As a result, we are taking this opportunity to buy and target the previous Resistance (from the September 25 High) at 111.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
EURJPY: Buy opportunity at the bottom of the Channel Up.EURJPY has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.011, MACD = -1.000, ADX = 41.208) as it held the 1D MA200 but remains restrained under the 1D MA50. This rebound however looks very much like the August 2nd 2022 1D MA200 rebound, which after it crossed over the 1D MA50, rallied to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. A 1D MACD Bullish Cross will confirm this signal and we turn bullish targeting under the 1.236 and the top of the Channel Up (TP = 168.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
GBPJPY Strong rally if the MA50 (1d) breaks.GBPJPY is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone pattern with the price testing now for the 2nd time the MA50 (1d). This test is coming only 3 days after the price hit the bottom of the Megaphone. The previous bottom formations have been very similar to the current pattern. Trading Plan: 1. Buy when the pair closes a (1d) candle above the MA50 (1d). Targets: 1. 190.000 (Fibonacci 1.236 extension). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has made a Double Bottom formation over the oversold level of 30.00. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
USDJPY: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY went up as I predicted. Here are the important key structures to watch. Vertical Structures Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line Horizontal Structures Support 1: 140.9 - 141.9 area Support 2: 137.2 - 138.1 area Resistance 1: 146.2 - 146.8 area Resistance 2: 148.2 - 148.6 area Resistance 3: 149.6 - 150.4 area Resistance 4: 151.7 - 152.0 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
CHFJPY Breaking above the 1D MA50 and confirming the buy.The CHFJPY pair hit our 169.100 bullish target, after the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) held, as presented on our November 06 call (see chart below): The current Bullish Megaphone that it has been trading in, has been very consistent. The recent Higher Low was made on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level such as the October 03. That was the first buy signal but now that the price is breaking above the 1D MA50 (needs to also close the candle above), we have the confirmation. On top of that, the 1D MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross. The previous Higher High was priced exactly on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension so as a result we will target the new -0.236 Fib at 172.500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
2
🔥 USD/JPY : First Long , Then SHORT ? (Read The Caption)By checking the chart of USDJPY , we can see that the price has fallen by more than 800 pips since the last analysis until now, and the final return has reached more than 1000 pips! As you can see, the price is currently gathering the necessary strength to grow again up to 144,700 to fill the liquidity void caused by this drop! The main point of view is still bearish, but with the right trigger, you can follow it with a corrective movement to the top! The important supply zone is in the range of 144,700 to 146,700! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
2