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USD/JPY: JPY Struggles Amid Global TensionsUSD/JPY: JPY Struggles Amid Global Tensions The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges in gaining momentum against the US Dollar (USD) as it retreats in the European session. European equity market optimism hampers the JPY's safe-haven appeal, while the USD sees positive traction ahead of the awaited FOMC meeting. Technical Analysis: The JPY faces resistance at 148.500 within the Fibonacci range of 61.8% to 78.6%, coupled with a potential bearish channel's dynamic trendline. Stochastic RSI divergence signals caution, and the price is poised for a potential bearish move. Market Dynamics: Global uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East, could limit JPY losses, supported by the Bank of Japan's recent hawkish stance. The looming uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cuts may restrain aggressive USD bets, keeping the USD/JPY pair in check. Looking Ahead: Traders await key US economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings, for potential market direction amid the central bank event risk. The interplay of technical signals and geopolitical factors shapes the outlook for the JPY in the near term. Our Idea: Below 150.75 look for further downside with 145.00 & 142.00 as targets.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBPJPY Medium-term sellThe GBPJPY pair delivered the best sell signal possible on our last bearish call (November 30 2023, see chart below) as it got rejected exactly on the Higher Highs trend-line back to the Support of the Ascending Triangle: Today's analysis is on the 1D time-frame where you can see that the price then rebounded exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and hit again the Higher Highs trend-line. That makes it again a technical sell opportunity and we can see the price already starting to reverse. So far it continues to be a symmetrical price action with 2021 and early 2022 and along these lines, we can argue that this is a similar Higher Highs rejection with early January 2022. As a result, we are taking that sell opportunity to target the 1D MA200 at 183.000 as the pair did on January 24 2022. When the 1D RSI hits the 30.00 oversold barrier again, we will take a long-term buy position expecting a break above the Higher Highs trend-line this time. We will update on the Target when that time comes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDJPY Bearish reversal towards the 1W MA50The USDJPY pair eventually took the bearish path last time we made a trading plan (November 28 2023, see chart below) and hit the 143.550 Target: The price has now made a short-term (at least) top as the 1D RSI got rejected near the 70.00 Overbought barrier. As a result we are expecting a reversal towards at least the 1W MA5 (red trend-line), which has been the long-term Support as it formed the bottoms (and subsequent rebounds) of December 28 and July 14 2023. As a result our Target is 143.000, even though the downtrend may very well extend as low as the Higher Lows trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
GBPJPY: Systemic Top being formed. Sell.GBPJPY is on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.529, MACD = 1.210, ADX = 62.251), which is a natural consequence of the strong 3 week rally since the January 2nd bottom. However this rally appears to have come to an end as not only has the price hit and got rejected twice on the R1 level (188.660) but the 1D RSI has also reach the top of its six month Channel Down and is reversing. The price action's HH trendline is a little higher, so we can allow some space for a final blow off top before a selloff. The Sine Waves so a clear and very consistent Peak-Bottom pattern and right now the price is exactly on the Peak. Consequently, we consider the current price level as a low risk sell opportunity. We are targeting the 1D MA200 (TP = 182.350). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
USDJPY: Sustainable rise on 1D. Buy.USDJPY is on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.246, MACD = 0.750, ADX = 53.805) as the price has established trading over the 1D MA50, negating a potential 1D Death Cross and is extending the bullish wave inside the Channel Up. The 1D RSI looks like March-April 2023 so far which was the start of the second bullish wave of 2023. We are expecting a minimum of +10.75% rise and remain bullish on the medium term (TP = 155.000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
1
Will Yen Tank to New Lows?The Japanese Yen is one of the worst performing currencies in 2024. It has weakened 5.4% against the USD. Forces have been stacked against Yen ever since the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a record pace. In sharp contrast, ultra loose monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resulted in wide policy rate differential of 5% between short-term interest rates in both countries, which has contributed to Yen weakness. The Yen made a recovery in December driven by a dovish Fed and hopes of BoJ exiting its ultra-loose policy in 2024. Yen rose to levels unseen since June 2023. However, thus far in 2024, the Yen has weakened as recent developments have cemented the need to maintain current loose monetary policy in Japan. An Earthquake that struck Japan at the start of the year caused infrastructure damage. Stimulus will be required to fix that. Inflation in Japan is retreating to BoJ’s target range rapidly. Consequently, the central bank may see no rush to start hiking rates given uncertain recovery in economic growth. This paper describes various forces at play and establishes a hypothetical trade setup using CME Japanese Yen futures to harness gains from weakening Yen. BOJ’s MONETARY POLICY MAY STAY LOOSER FOR LONGER 1. Aid for Earthquake Relief: On January 2nd, a severe earthquake hit near Japan's Ishikawa prefecture , causing widespread destruction, damaging over 4,000 homes. The area continues to experience aftershocks, adding to the damage. Moody’s RMS predicts insured losses from the earthquake could be between USD 3 billion and USD 6 billion. In response, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kushida plans to double earthquake relief funds to USD 7 billion in the next fiscal year to aid recovery efforts. Given the economic fallout, the BoJ is likely to maintain its lenient monetary policy in the near future. 2. Cooling CPI: Japan’s most recent CPI figures showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in December from 2.8% in November. That is the lowest reading since July 2022. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, a measure referenced by the BoJ, fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was 3.7% YoY, which was also lower compared to November’s 3.8%. The core CPI reading is just a hair above BoJ’s target range of 2%. Inflation was driven lower by decline (11.6% YoY) in energy costs. The large drop was due to base effects of high energy prices last year. Services inflation remained unchanged at 2.3% fuelled by higher wages. That is positive news for the BoJ which aims to establish sustainable domestic-demand & wage-growth driven inflation. With wage hikes from the Shunto negotiation in March-April still undecided, the BoJ is unlikely to pre-empt the exit from loose policy. Therefore, the next two policy meetings are unlikely to lead to a policy shift. BoJ Policy Meeting calendar ( BoJ ) FED POLICY MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIGHTER FOR LONGER Meanwhile, concerns are plenty in the US too. Inflation rebounded in December. Core inflation remains strong. Robust retail sales suggest consumers are resilient and still spending. Jobs data from December was healthy. Recent jobless claims points to further strength in the labour market. Put together, the Fed will not rush to cut rates as markets expect. This is exemplified by diverging market and Fed expectations for rate path. According to CME FedWatch tool (as of 22/Jan), markets are expecting 5 rate cuts in 2024 while Federal Reserve's dot plot suggested only 3 rate cuts would take place. Both factors, from Japan and the US together, suggest fundamental Yen weakness and these conditions are expected to persist for longer. YEN INTERVENTION WARNING Despite the fundamental weakness, there are risks from betting against further Yen weakening. As the currency weakened rapidly past 148/USD, the Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the government is closely watching developments in the currency markets. He stressed the importance of stability and that market movements should reflect economic fundamentals. Likelihood of intervention remains high and its impact on the Yen has been discussed previously . MARKET METRICS Options market activity points to a contrasting trend. Recent open interest change in CME Group Japanese Yen options have been tilted towards higher calls signalling hopes of Yen strengthening. Overall positioning points to a similar contrary trend. CME Group Japanese Yen options OI change between 11/Jan and 19/Jan ( QuikStrike ) Despite the recent rally, implied volatility has not spiked significantly. They remain well below the highs seen in mid-December around BoJ’s policy meeting. Moreover, options skew remains elevated from its lows observed in late-October when the sentiment around Yen was heavily bearish. CME Japanese Yen options CVOL index and options skew ( CVOL ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The BoJ is unlikely to exit its loose policy stance any time soon against the backdrop of rapidly slowing inflation and uncertain economic outlook. In the US, a rebound in inflation might delay Fed’s rate cut decision. Collectively, this points to fundamental Yen weakness. To limit downside exposure in case of intervention by Japanese officials in currency markets, a tight stop can limit losses. The below hypothetical trade setup suggests a short position in CME Group Japanese Yen futures expiring in March (6JH2024) that provides a 1.55x reward to risk ratio. CME Group Japanese Yen futures have maintenance margin of USD 2,600 and provide exposure to 12,500,000 Yen. • Entry: 0.0068115 • Target: 0.0066000 • Stop Loss: 0.0069500 • Profit at Target: USD 2,643 (68115 – 66000 = 2115 pips x 1.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,731 (69500 – 68115 pips = 1385 pips x 1.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.55x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
USD/JPY Dynamics: Fed Speculations, CPI Impact, and Bearish SignUSD/JPY Dynamics: Fed Speculations, CPI Impact, and Bearish Signals The Japanese Yen (JPY) has marked a second consecutive day of gains against its American counterpart, recovering from a one-month low following the release of US consumer inflation figures. Despite a slightly hot headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting prolonged higher interest rates, market speculations hint at a potential shift in the Fed's policy stance in March. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for US Treasury bond yields and exerts pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the downside for the USD/JPY pair is tempered by the belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its ultra-dovish stance. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, our attention remains on the price for a potential new bearish impulse. The current trading scenario places the price within the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci zone, with a notable rebound from the 61.8% level following the CPI release adding confidence to our bearish setup. Market Dynamics: The slightly elevated US CPI and ongoing discussions among Fed officials have left markets in anticipation of a prolonged period of higher interest rates. Despite this sentiment, the prevailing expectation of a policy shift in March remains, acting as a drag on US Treasury bond yields and impacting the USD. However, the downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair is cushioned by the prevailing belief that the BoJ is unlikely to deviate from its ultra-dovish monetary policy stance. Conclusion: The JPY's recent strength against the USD reflects the intricate dance between US inflation data, Fed policy speculation, and the Bank of Japan's stance. While technical indicators point to the potential for a new bearish impulse in the USD/JPY pair, the overarching dynamics in the global currency markets will continue to influence its trajectory. Traders will closely monitor key economic indicators and central bank communications to gauge the evolving landscape for the JPY and USD. Our preference Short positions below 147.70 with entry at 145.00 and targets at 143.00 & 141.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid BoJ Policy...USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid BoJ Policy Uncertainty The USD/JPY pair struggles to find upward momentum, remaining entrenched in a bearish trajectory after touching the 50% Fibonacci level from the previous swing high. As the market digests the aftermath of the New Year's Day earthquake in Japan and contemplates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decisions, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces downward pressure. Despite a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), the USD/JPY pair hovers just below the mid-144.00s as the European session commences on Monday. Technical Analysis: V-Shaped Reversal Potential Our analysis reveals a compelling scenario on the higher timeframe, suggesting the possibility of a V-shaped reversal. The price rebounded precisely from the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area, situated below the 200 Moving Average. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides in the overbought territory, supporting our bearish continuation hypothesis. Upcoming Event: Japan's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) The upcoming week kicks off with the release of Japan's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical event that could influence the market's perception of the BoJ's monetary policy. Investors closely monitor inflation figures as they seek clues regarding the BoJ's stance on its existing hyper-easy monetary policy. Japan's Tokyo CPI for the year-ended December is forecasted to slip from 2.3% to 2.1%, reflecting potential challenges for the BoJ to meet its 2% inflation target. Conclusion: In the midst of ongoing uncertainty surrounding the BoJ's policy decisions and Japan's inflation dynamics, the USD/JPY pair remains in a bearish momentum. Our analysis suggests the potential for a bearish continuation, as indicated by the V-shaped reversal scenario and the RSI signaling overbought conditions. Traders are advised to stay vigilant, with Japan's inflation data likely to shape market sentiment and guide future decisions. Our preference Short positions below 147.70 with entry at 145.00 and targets at 143.00 & 141.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY: Earthquake Fallout and Technical Signals Shape Trading USD/JPY: Earthquake Fallout and Technical Signals Shape Trading Dynamics The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces early selling pressure on the first trading day of 2024, weighed down by the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in central Japan. This unfortunate event, coupled with a recovering US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury bond yields, contributes to the USD/JPY pair distancing itself from recent lows. Earthquake Impact and Thin Trading Volumes: The seismic tremors in central Japan cast a shadow on the domestic currency, influencing market sentiment in a day marked by relatively thin trading volumes. The immediate impact on the Japanese Yen underscores the complexities of external factors impacting currency movements, adding a layer of unpredictability to the trading landscape. Technical Analysis and Bearish Signals: Examining the technical landscape, the USD/JPY pair remains ensconced within a bearish channel. Notably, the price appears to be consolidating in a range suggestive of a Bearish flag. Analysts are eyeing this pattern as a precursor to a potential fresh bearish impulse, particularly around the resistance area highlighted in the chart. The prevailing idea is one of bearish continuation in the short term. BoJ Policy Expectations: Amid the current dynamics, it's important to consider the expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy stance. While external factors weigh on the Yen, expectations of an imminent policy shift by the BoJ act as a mitigating factor, potentially limiting deeper losses for the Japanese currency. Our preference Short positions below 143.000 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Usdjpy looks to break further...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. As mentioned in my previous 2 articles which you can find the link below, daily trend of UJ seems to be turning lower. though the japanese boj has yet to carry out much actions, chart is still showing bearish signal from daily to h1. bias still to short. Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution..USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution Fuel Bearish Momentum The USD/JPY pair continues to experience losses as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, influenced by the dovish outlook presented by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the first quarter of 2024. The recent decline gained momentum on Friday, triggered by softer domestic consumer inflation data, amplifying uncertainty regarding the potential timing of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening its ultra-loose policy. Minutes from the BoJ's October monetary policy meeting further indicated a commitment to maintaining the current accommodative stance, putting additional downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Market Developments: As the USD/JPY pair trades lower around 140.70 during the early European session on Thursday, attention is drawn to the psychological areas of 141.00 and 141.600, which now pose as immediate resistance levels. The next significant barrier is identified at the 142.00 level, suggesting that the pair faces an uphill struggle in its attempt to reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment. Technical Analysis and Correlation: Building on our technical analysis and considering the correlation with the EUR/USD pairs, the outlook for USD/JPY points towards a continuation of the bearish momentum. The dovish Fed stance and cautious BoJ approach contribute to the prevailing downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, emphasizing the potential for further losses in the near term. Looking Ahead: The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the BoJ's policy tightening and the dovish tone from the Fed are likely to remain key drivers for the USD/JPY pair. Traders and investors will closely monitor any developments in monetary policy discussions and economic indicators that could offer insights into the future direction of the currency pair. As the USD/JPY pair faces resistance levels and grapples with the repercussions of dovish central bank outlooks, the bearish momentum seems poised to persist. The interplay between the Federal Reserve's stance and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach sets the stage for continued volatility in the pair. As market participants navigate these dynamics, the focus remains on potential opportunities arising from the evolving conditions in the currency markets. Our preference Short positions below 143.00 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
NZDJPY Pump and dump in action.The NZDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a pivot point as of late. We can see a diverging (dotted) Channel Up that has priced the recent Higher Highs as well as being supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has rebounded on the 39.90 Support level, which is where the last two Higher Lows has been priced, while the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. This is a buy signal and our target is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the dotted Channel Up at 91.800. We are waiting for a sell after the 1D RSI gets rejected near the 73.40 Resistance, and we will target the bottom of the longer term Channel Up at 88.900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDJPY Bottom of Bullish Megaphone. Long-term buy.USDJPY is on the MA200 (1d) on top of the Rising Support Zone. That is the bottom layer of the long term Bullish Megaphone pattern, a very strong rebound range. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price and as long as the price stays on the Support Zone. Targets: 1. 151.980 (Resistance 1, the previous High). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has formed a Double Bottom exactly on the oversold 30.00 level. An additional strong buy signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView