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USDJPY - 4H Sell SetupFX:USDJPY is displaying a clear technical setup for a bearish move. After a significant pullback following a sharp fall, the pair failed to surpass the resistance zone around 149. This area has proven strong as the price action was unable to hold above it, trapping liquidity just above the resistance. The price then rejected this zone with a sharp reversal. Additionally, the second attempt to break through the resistance further confirms the weakness, as liquidity hunting above the resistance has been met with selling pressure. This rejection, combined with the failed breakout, suggests the pair is likely to fall towards the lower targeted support zone, potentially setting up a strong shorting opportunity in the near term. This aligns with fundamental factors, including expectations of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japan faces a cautious stance on raising interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure. However, recent economic data from Japan, such as rising producer prices and decreased lending activity, suggests a shift may be underway, supporting further yen strength and a potential fall in USDJPY. Traders should watch for a continuation of this move, as the failed attempts to breach resistance and the liquidity grab signal further downside pressure.
Short
by Sober_Trading
2
The Yen's Wobble: Bank of Japan in a Policy BindThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) finds itself caught in a precarious situation as it grapples with defending the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). With global inflation on the rise and other central banks tightening monetary policy, the BOJ faces a difficult choice: intervene in the currency market or stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. The Yen's depreciation stems from a divergence in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The BOJ has stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose policy, keeping interest rates at a negative 0.1% for nearly eight years. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has begun raising rates to combat inflation. This difference in interest rates makes the US Dollar (USD) a more attractive asset for investors, leading to a decline in the Yen's value. A weakening Yen presents a double-edged sword for Japan. On the one hand, it benefits exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. However, on the other hand, a weaker Yen translates to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities like oil and gas, which are already experiencing price hikes due to global factors. This translates to a squeeze on Japanese consumers' wallets and fuels inflationary pressures domestically. The BOJ has a couple of options to address this dilemma. One option is to intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its massive war chest of over $1.2 trillion worth of US Treasuries (as of February 2024 data). This intervention would theoretically raise the value of the Yen by increasing demand for it. However, such a move is not without its risks. Selling a significant amount of US Treasuries could cause their yields, or the interest rates investors receive for holding them, to spike. This could have a ripple effect on global financial markets, potentially destabilizing them. Furthermore, Japan's intervention might be seen as futile if the underlying cause, the policy divergence with other central banks, is not addressed. The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated, with some economists arguing that it is a temporary solution at best. The other option for the BOJ is to raise interest rates. This would bring Japan more in line with other central banks and potentially make the Yen a more attractive asset for investors. However, the BOJ has been reluctant to raise rates for several reasons. One concern is that raising rates could derail Japan's fragile economic recovery. The country has struggled with deflation, or persistently falling prices, for decades, and raising rates could dampen economic activity. Additionally, many Japanese businesses and households have become accustomed to, and even dependent on, the low-interest-rate environment. Raising rates too quickly could lead to financial instability. The BOJ's decision to maintain negative interest rates at its April 26th meeting underscores this cautious approach. This decision, while expected by many analysts, further highlights the difficult balancing act the BOJ faces. The path forward for the BOJ remains uncertain. The bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates as global inflationary pressures persist. However, the timing and pace of such hikes will be crucial. The BOJ needs to find a way to defend the Yen without jeopardizing the economic recovery or causing undue financial market volatility. This situation serves as a reminder of the complex challenges central banks face in a time of global economic uncertainty.
by bryandowningqln
Yen Strengthens Following Bank of Japan InterventionThe yen has appreciated recently after the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market. This is a significant development with potential implications for the foreign exchange market. Considering Going Long on JPY? A stronger yen could be an attractive opportunity for traders looking to go long on the currency. However, it's important to conduct thorough research and consider factors like: • Market Volatility: Currency markets can be volatile, and the yen's rise may not be sustained. • Overall Investment Strategy: This move should align with your broader investment goals and risk tolerance. • Conduct Your Own Research Before making any investment decisions, research the yen's future outlook and analyze potential risks and rewards. We're Here to Help If you have any questions or would like to discuss this development further, please don't hesitate to contact us via the comments.
Short
by bryandowningqln
NZDJPY: Bullish Divergence and Fib Retracement Signal Potential📈 Overview: NZDJPY, amid a bullish trend, shows a bullish divergence near its higher low. The current retracement from the 0.618 Fibonacci level suggests potential upside. 📊 Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence and retracement from 0.618 indicate a favorable risk-reward ratio for potential long positions. 📉 Trade Strategy: Traders may consider long positions, with entry near the current retracement level, anticipating an upward move. 🛑 Risk Management: Mitigate risks with stop-loss orders to protect capital in case of unexpected price movements. 📈 Conclusion: NZDJPY offers a concise opportunity for further upside, supported by bullish signals. Monitor for confirmation and adjust positions accordingly.
Long
by miansarimhameed
Potential Intervention by Bank of Japan - Pause Yen Trading? As you are aware, the USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing considerable volatility lately, with the exchange rate approaching the critical level of 155. While we strive to maintain a balanced and unbiased approach, it is essential to acknowledge the potential consequences if the USD/JPY falls beyond this threshold. In such a scenario, it is highly likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may intervene to stabilize the yen's value against the US dollar. Historically, the BoJ has demonstrated a proactive approach to prevent excessive currency fluctuations, especially when they may adversely affect Japan's economy. Considering this possibility, we strongly recommend that traders take a moment to reassess their current yen trading positions. Pausing yen trading during this uncertain period may prove to be a prudent decision, allowing us to gauge the BoJ's response and the subsequent market sentiment. We understand that as traders, you possess the expertise to make informed decisions based on your individual strategies and risk appetite. However, we believe it is our responsibility to highlight potential market events that could have a significant impact on your trading activities. To stay updated on the latest developments regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate and the Bank of Japan's potential intervention, we encourage you to regularly monitor reliable news sources and leverage comprehensive research tools. In conclusion, we urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarity emerges regarding the Bank of Japan's intervention. By adopting a prudent approach, we can safeguard our positions and navigate the market with greater confidence.
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY - Reversal SignalsIn the left chart (4H time frame), you can see buyers are weak now and couldn't push the price to cross the supply zone (136.4-136.7) The angle of the upward leg is lower than the downward leg and shows a possible pullback. On the other hand, in the 1H chart, we have a large green candle, which after that, the price completely reversed with two candles, so it's more likely to be an exhaustion gap. Almost we have a double top. All price action data shows that it's hard to break this resistance zone, and probably we will have a reversal trend with at least the demand zone. We have 3 Doji candles in the 4H chart; those are the signal bar for us, so I will sell if we have a valid bearish key bar and the uptrend line break.
Short
by Sober_Trading
3
USDJPY LONG USDJPY has being bearish for weeks , now price tested a key level at marked zone and rejected it & has closed back above another important zone.We can also see the large engulfing candle showing lots of bullish momentum on the Dollar. If not yet in the trade , wait for minor retracement , to the marked zone then jump in .If it doesnt retrace and continues bullish can look for another setup.Trade will only become invalid if price breaks back below the 104.36. In Conclusion Usdjpy is bullish for longterm investements .
Long
by Arne808
AUD/JPY Short-term Recovery to 76.00Hello Fellow Trader! AUD/JPY has dropped 5.5% from August highs finding a price zone where major reversals have started. Also coincides with June close – July open price. Watching closely for trend line break and a hold above for confirmation to enter. Fundamentally it is quite difficult to go against the Japanese Yen for its haven qualities in global uncertainty, but with that 5.5% drop, a bounce opportunity is possible for AUD/JPY. Key Points: - Daily – Price cluster zone with 200 EMA. Multiple touches in historical data. - Price below the 200 EMA - Caution - Price below the 50 EMA – Caution - Watching for a cross above trend line. If you are comfortable trading flags, one may present above the trend line. - Must watch price around the 50 EMA - RSI breaks trend and range simultaneously for momentum Key Levels: Support – 74.486, 74.00 Resistance – 75.00, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, 76.00, 76.800 Entry Zone: Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals. Optimal Entry – 74.450 Supporting Entry – 74.500 Candle Reversals for entry OR Flag pattern for break out - Bullish Hammer - Bullish Engulfing - Bullish Piercing The Risk: As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios. If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital. IF: Price breaks below 74.00 – this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter. Reward / Reward Targets: Optimal Entry 74.450 – Target 1 76.00 = 3x Reward to Risk Optimal Entry 74.450 – Target 2 76.800 = 4.6x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 74.500 – Target 1 76.00 = 2.6x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 74.500 – Target 2 76.800 = 4x Reward to Risk
Long
by tradetheday
CADJPY Just Kicked Down The Wedge Whats NExt?Hi, Guys What I am Seeing In This Pair is that it Will Pretty Nearly Go Down In The Next Week So Lets See And Be Ready!! Location : CadJpy H1 BEst OF Luck "Trade At your Own Risk" If you you want to learn how we do it just Dm Us Here Or Any Other of Over SocialMedia PlatForm Like Insta (venusfx9) Fb (Forexvenus) WhatsApp(ask in Dm ), And Start Earning Through over 07 Years Of Market Robust Knowledge by learning From Us And Shortern you learning period.
Short
by Venusfx
USD/JPY daily overviewThe US Dollar depreciated 0.36% against the Japanese Yen since Friday’s session. During the previous trading session, the currency pair was resisted by the 55-hour SMA during the whole trading session. On Monday morning, the US Dollar was located near the monthly S1 at the 111.66 mark. In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US dollar will trade downwards to the monthly S1 at the 111.49 mark. The US retail sales data sets will come out at 12.30 GMT on Monday. In addition, it is expected that the currency pair might pass the monthly S1 and the weekly S1 at the 111.39 mark due to the fundamentals.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1