Retrace in the risk rally=> Here we are entering back into earnings season and US companies are expected to come in strong. Risk appetite is starting to enter back into the picture and because of this we see the current dip in USDJPY as a valuation driven dip.
=> This rebound from the bottom of a year long channel should be an easy ride towards 114.73
=> USD will regain strength against all G10 currencies whilst on the other side we see plenty of opportunities in EM currency rebounds.
=> The risk to our thesis is a reduction in flows coming into the US to satisfy liquidity.
=> Tracking a few things in the Fed minutes today:
(1) Any focus on upward revisions in the neutral rate.
(2) Further details on the removal of "accommodative"
Typically there is not much added to the comments although we are tracking early signals for the end of the monetary cycle.
=> Good luck all of those trading this one in live trades
