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JCP

THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS AND A PERSISTENTLY LOW VIXIf you're going to play anything next week premium selling wise, it's going to be in earnings, because that's all that's really out there volatility-wise. The VIX remains persistently low here, and running a screen for exchange-traded funds with >70% implied volatility rank, and >35% implied volatility yields absolutely nothing. Here's what showed up on my radar -- some sketchy ADR action (WUBA), a little bit of frisky biopharm (BCRX), and some beaten-down brick-and-mortar retail (M, SHLD, JCP): WUBA (99/56) (Online Retail): It's scheduled to announce earnings on Thursday (2/23) (Short strangle/iron condor). BCRX (98/287) (Biopharm): Earnings Monday (2/27) Before Market Open. (Short puts, short straddle). This is biopharm, which -- in itself -- should serve as a warning. You may want to do a bit more due diligence on this one than you would ordinarily, since they can explode, but also implode. DKS (98/48) (Sporting Goods/Retail): Earnings are three weeks out, but I thought I'd put it out there since it's nearly ripe for play implied volatility rank/implied volatility wise. (Short strangle, iron condor). M (96/49) (Department Store Retail): Earnings Tuesday (2/21) Before Market Open. Because we have a long holiday weekend here, with the markets being closed on Monday, I've probably missed an opp to play this one unless there is high vol afterglow post earnings. (Short strangle, iron condor). SHLD (93/127) (Department Store Retail): I don't see that this has earnings up, but it's in the process of imploding. (Short puts, short straddle). BBY (93/47) (Retail): Earnings 3/1 Before Market Open. We're still a ways out from earnings, so like DKS, nearly ripe ... . (Short strangle, iron condor). HTZ (92/73) (Car Rental): Earnings 2/27 (Monday) After Market Close. Another one that's ripe right now. (Short strangle, iron condor). JCP (88/65) (Department Store/Retail): Earnings Friday (2/24) Before Market Open. Another beaten down brick and mortar retail issue. (Short puts, short straddle). OCN (85/70) (Financial): Earnings on 2/22 (Wednesday) After Market Close. (Short puts,short straddle).
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by NaughtyPines
2
NEXT WEEK'S COVERED CALL CANDIDATES: ZIOP, NVAX, LC, WLLHere's my "short list" for covered call candidates for next week generated by looking at Barcharts.com high volatility stock options list and the Dough grid: WLL buy shares at 7.66; sell Sept 16th 8 call; 7.10 debit; $90 max profit (12.7% ROC) CC buy shares at 11.45; sell Sept 16th 12 call; 10.78 debit; $122 max profit (10.6% ROC) LC buy shares at 5.40; sell Oct 21st 5.5 call; 4.85 debit; $65 max profit (13.4% ROC) ZIOP buy shares at 5.46; sell Oct 21st 6 call; 4.65 debit; $135 max profit (29.0% ROC) NVAX buy shares at 7.04; sell Oct 21st 8 call; 5.42 debit.; $258 max profit (47.6% ROC) FCX buy shares at 11.92; sell Sept 30 12 call; 10.90 debit; $102 max profit (9.3% ROC) JCP buy shares at 10.55; sell Sept 30th 11 call; 9.59 debit; $96 max profit (9.6% ROC) Notes: (1) WLL's a petro play. Because so many small petro companies are in trouble of one kind or another (i.e., shale and/or offshore oil exploration exposure), I generally prefer playing something with a little less "single company exposure" (e.g., XOP). But, hey, it meets my general rule of >10% ROC. (2) CC is a basic materials/chemical play. It spun off from DuPont and has had quite an up run here in spite of a recent punitive damages judgment for chemical dumping (weirdly, the stock dipped and then subsequently popped on the news, probably out of relief that the debacle was in the rear view mirror). (3) LC's been in a downtrend since IPO. At best, a money, take, run play. (4) I still like ZIOP. It's biopharma and has a fairly diverse pipeline such that if one drug fails, they still have more in the hopper. And that 29% ROC, well ... drop dead gorgeous if it can get to $6. (5) I'm also in NVAX (biopharm). In comparison to ZIOP, their pipeline is quite narrow and currently devoted to a single vaccine (RSV). sg.finance.yahoo.com (vaccine "could be breakthrough," but not time to "break out the champagne" (code for "it could suck ... or not")). (6) FCX (mining). I covered called this in late 2015, early 2016 which commodities were at a cyclical low and then bailed out when it appeared to be topping. Looking back, it kind of looks pricey here in comparison, and I'm not so hot on the ROC. However, it's highly liquid, and it has some room to pop to 14.00 resistance (and naturally some room to cave; the 2016 low is sub-$4). (7) JCP. Well, it's JCP. Plus, it's had a bit of a run up here, and if past performance is indicative of future results, well, it could zombie trade back to sub-$9 and with the ROC, well, not at the top of my list ... .
WLong
by NaughtyPines
JCP $6 target.JCP has done fake double bottoms before on 2013-10 and 2014-02 A new such Fake bottom is developing. Also is the start of an Elliott Wave impulse cycle. Note however how the Volume profile is heavily titled to downside and how volume practically vanishes on top. Fundamentally, they are trying a few new things and throwing a lot of things on the wall to see what sticks. But that just smells of desperation. This is going to be another AMZN fatality. I am accumulating Shorts / Puts for a $6.1 target.
JShort
by iamajeya
JCPJC Penney is a great speculative stock with fundamental reasons to support that a turnaround is in progress. It seems to have bottomed in 2014 and is slowly gaining momentum and swings wildly with optimistic and pessimistic pushes. Overall, I like the stock but don't want to see it get out of hand in either direction. It's path of least resistance right now seems downward. I wouldn't mind picking up a few shares under $9 and add under $8. Red is resistance Green is potential support
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by DathanPyle
JCP COVERED CALLWith an implied volatility rank of 96 and favorable break even metrics for the setup, JCP presents a fairly decent covered call opportunity here. Buy 100 shares JCP at 6.63 Sell 1 Jan 29th 7 short call Entire Package: 5.94 debit ($594) (which will be your per share break even -- $5.94, which is slightly above the 52-week low) Max Profit: $106 (if called away at $7) I look to take these off intratrade if the profit exceeds what I would make if called away; otherwise, I continue to sell short calls against (or roll the short call when its value reaches near worthless) at strikes at or above cost basis break even.
JLong
by NaughtyPines
JCP is it possible?!? may be.As in my past analysis for JCP, I showed that the key for this stock to go higher is the supporting performance and news. This stock has a bright future, volatility was very high for this stock in both directions (up & down) which means there were some smart money out there accumulating in the stock (it is obvious in the positive divergence with the RSI). What's NEXT?!? The stock has to trade above $7.95 for at least 3 days to be able to continue for the next levels which are $8.56 and then $9.17. the Failure to trade above $7.95 for 3 days might be an indication of weakness and that the smart money which accumulated at lower levels are selling after the positive news announced. Thank you, Have a good trade.
JLong
by mohnagi
J.C. Penny - The Battle of Retrieving the Broken SupportsAfter the fast progress in JCP prices it turned its direction down right after the analyst conference. Is it the stock's death or is it just over reacting from the analysts and panic investors. Here in the chart we can tell that the stock faced a strong resistance at $11.22, On Fibo retracement it represents 50% from its level $17.54, at this strong level we usually expect some correction specially after it failed to penetrate this level for 3 tries. So the stock faced double pressure, First the 50% level, Second the panicked investors/ (analysts who are usually lagging the price as they wait for the financial data to make decisions). The stock is still in correction as it didn't break the 76.4% support, and it is still respecting its 61.8% support at $7.31. WHAT'S NEXT?!? We have to watch the next resistance levels $7.88 : $8.06 it's a very strong range. The stock already had a one failed try to penetrate $7.88, let's watch for the next try which it it fails again will lead the stock to another testing for its supports to gain momentum before retrying. Over all the stock waiting for its bright future which needs to be backed by a positive news or results. Let's see how its results will direct the price direction. Sincerely, Mo
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by mohnagi
JCP bumps the ceiling before earnings Sorry for the mistake, check the chart in Day grain, mistakenly forgot to revert back from Weekly JCP has been licking the recent ceiling for quite some time, and ER is 20 days ahead. So far it looks like a major bearish pennant as it s formed on a/after a down trend. Yet still it is kind of out the major down trend. I guess either positive news, and most probably earnings decide it for this retailer. Would not buy it now, but would hold if it is there. On bad ER would sell at all cost.
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by A-shot
JPC - tight between several ideas This is an assembly of several ideas, one from user littleriver, one from sublimares2, and a small observation from me. 1) littleriver provides an idea of the possible breakout if the stock follows the beam up 2) sublimares2 noted wisely the narrowing bear flag - and it is narrowing nicely within the beams noted by littleriver .Should the stock go into the red zone, it will violate the range of the flag and will have a lot of downside potential 3) Then there is an unfilled gap that will be itching to get filled with the downside turn 4) A very loose, but still visible inverse head and shoulders - its not ideal, but it is quite symmetrical in terms of shoulders (even the small bumps near the head). Also visible on Weekly chart 5) Also note that the 9.90 - 10.00 price is hardly breachable . The stock tried to breach it twice now, while bumping too many times to ~9.15 - there is a huge resistance at this point. But with the swings below this price getting shorter and shorted one can see more wind from the bulls and bears giving up. If 9.15 gets breached and price closes above it for 2 consecutive days, it will run to 10 as well as i see. it - then there can be other patterns in play if the currently outlined ones are invalidated. 6) Some technical indicators : While CCI is at the top normal range, RSI has some small room to go up (a jump also has room). So does RMI - but all of them have more room to go down. So if it tanks, it can be quite hard. Basically so far we have a higher low, but no higher high to confirm a change of trend. Once price breaks above 10.15 its a clear change from many ideas. But beware that it can go in whatever direction as there are no headwind news and the stock price gets jammed in a flag. Trade on your own risk.
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by A-shot
1
JCP - Jumping over $10JCP has a few things going for it. We have a nice Fib setup, if we can see some stability above 9.20, We could see the price jump up to 10.35. Also, this same level is the high from back in December. I usually love the 1.618 extension, but with so much resistance coming at the 1.27, i would be leary of pushing to hard for more money. Also earnings come out soon for JCP. This could also give it that little extra kick to push it even further up (or down i guess)
JLong
by landofand
JCP waking up, laggard playThis retailer had couple dissapointing earnings before, but on the last it beat above consensus with EPS surprice 0.11 and gapped up with pivot support @ $7.00 that was confirmed and retested in the mid of April. And from the beginnig of May it is building nice upper-level base in front of resistance $9.30. Yeasterday, it broke up tight consolidation which triggered my entry. Will be great to see continuation through resistance then we have 200 MA at $10 which could be our first target. Stop below moving averages $8.20ish Stock was underperforming vs overall market because of weak fundamentals. We have earnings on 15 of May.
JLong
by andrew.berg
4