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JDST

Gold short trade ideaI am shorting gold here with JDST and DUST. I believe the move higher three days ago over the long term green trend line was a false breakout. It brought the longs in miners back into the market. I expect the trajectory of the overlaid gold candles to come in play. GOLD formed a double top pattern, which usually means a reversal. TSI and %R are overbought and due to correct. The DC is another reason to support a drop. You can see we are on day 20. The previous cycles have been between 29 and 40 days. We are due to search out a low in Gold. USD looks to be strengthening, Japanese yen is also weakening, another signal to watch that follows gold. I think the timing is good here to go short.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by bhowe
2
Jnug to Gold "FOMC meeting and Brexit talks" This is a tough spot for me to possibly predict any directional movement. While I do think that Jnug will drop at the beginning of the week and probably touch the $16.80 level with the help from gold dropping, the Fed decision is weighing on me. Just about everywhere I read it says that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday. If they do raise rates then I think it is safe to say that gold will finally and truly breakout and stay up this time around. This would take Jnug up with it somewhere along the blue arrow. However,.....we have been having weaker data than was expected, and on around June 20th, the Brexit talks begin. Since there is a lot of turmoil throughout Europe right now, I am wondering if these factors will have the Fed wait on a rate hike this week. They waited last year right before the Brexit vote so maybe they will wait again. Another thing is ....on a purely technical analysis perspective, gold still has not completed a true Intermediate cycle low (ICL). The RSI on the weekly has to get to the oversold level and the medium term trend lines are supposed to be broken before calling a ICL. All we have had are two good DCL's. I am leaning bearish for both gold and Jnug for the next couple of weeks as I am thinking that the Fed does not raise rates. I also think that the weaker inflation index's may also keep the Fed at bay. On my Jnug chart I am showing the possible wedge a,b,c,d,e forming. It appears that we are dropping into the "d" and that would mean a small "e" pop. Usually when "e" is up, then what comes next is a breakdown. The BBands are still constricted. So a big move is still imminent. But nothing is for certain at this point. A few days ago I said it was safe to be short Gold. And I stand by that call until Wednesday morning. But it is probably safe at that point to wait on the sidelines to see what the Fed decides before going long or short for a longer term trade. If there is no Fed rate hike then I think that gold will finally fall into its ICL and get down to the 1165 - 1170 range before bouncing. I think that would happen in late June. That drop would tank Jnug and probably follow my red arrows. GL on whatever you decide to do
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
23
Jnug to Gold "Breakout??!!" Well gold finally broke through the 5 year resistance downtrend line. But what matters is how we close the day and if there is follow through tomorrow. If this drops back under 1290 and we start tanking, then I would bet this continues to drop hard. This could be a false breakout designed to get everyone to go long. Do you doubt the big money does not know this? I am fairly certain that we are in the final 5th wave still. It has gone higher than I anticipated. Oh well. I am not going long because I believe this will fail. I am bummed that I got out of Jnug. If you remember, I was saying that I thought Jnug was going to test the red zone around $20 and then drop. I got out when I saw Jnug fail below a certain level. Looks like I took the fake out bait on that move . Oh well. I will wait. I am looking for Jnug to be at around $16 by Friday. If gold closes green and keeps running, I will wait for a pull back before going long. As I write this, there is a large bearish divergence on the RSI 5 and also as gold correlates with miners. The question is, will miners catch up over the next week or is this going to fall short again. I bet short. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
15
Jnug to Gold "BBands tightening again, Big move coming soon"Yes a big move is coming soon and I think that that big move is down. Last Fridays poor price action for Jnug is the writing on the wall. With such a strong break up for gold, Jnug should have behaved better than that if there was strength. So while I think gold will continue up towards the top of its wedge, I think Jnug may not perform that well. I wont guess on a price top for early next week but I will be monitoring it closely. Then I will sell my Jnug and buy JDST. I am hoping that Jnug can retest the red zone again and hit the $20 area but I am losing faith in the ability for it to fill that upper gap. The JDST gains should be very large over the next two weeks starting after Tuesday is my guess. I am fully expecting Jnug to drop all the way down to $9.40 - $8.15 range. I am looking for GDXJ to drop to first test the December lows of $27.47 range. If that breaks then I would look to $26.35 range. If for some reason we actually get that low, then there would be nothing that I can see stopping a drop until $21. To put things into perspective. Since Jnug tracks GDXJ. If GDXJ drops to the $27.47 range, that would be a 14.8% drop. On February 24th and 27th, GDXJ dropped 13.6% in two days which translated into Jnug dropping 36.66% in two days. That would bring Jnug down to $10.95. And I think we will go lower than that and get to the $9.35 to $8.14 range. If we get to $8.14, that would affectively be a retest of the 2015 lows for Jnug (reverse split included). After we get down there then I fully expect the Fed to raise rates and we get another rally. But it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller. This once might be very short lived, maybe a month or two at the most?! That's a little two far in the future but I have been predicting that gold has not started its bull market and that gold will drop hard into early next year. I will post my GDXJ chart and Gold chart next. GL
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
21
Jnug to Gold 5/22/17I decided to start with the gold chart today. We have once again closed above the 50 week MA, which is the thick blue line. I am looking for price to move above 1264.75 to confirm that we are in a wave 5. If that is confirmed, probably overnight, then I am targeting that yellow box area for a top for gold. Then we should turn down with a vengeance. I am not one that believes that we just completed a ICL a couple of weeks ago. Price is supposed to break the trend line not bounce off of it. Plus we have a rate hike coming up in June and as is typical gold behavior, gold drops until the day of the rate hike and then rallies pretty hard. So if I am correct, and gold pushes up to that yellow box, this should help Jnug finally rally past that red resistance area. It will have a hard time moving much higher than the gap fill due to the BBands being already compressed and the 50 DMA up there as well. Lets see how tomorrow goes. Jnug chart will be posted next.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by SalN
6
Gold Daily Ichimoku and Possible Head and ShouldersWe are now at a retracement of .618 of the drop from 1295 and nearing the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Bullish cloud could support the price but might only carry it to a lower high but I'll long the breakout if it pushes higher than the head. I'm watching the upper part of the cloud near .707 at 1272 to see if it pushes higher or turns south forming the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders. The red possible neckline and channel will determine short confirmation for me. I'll add to short/long at 1295/1215 respectively. Good luck, have fun, be safe!
FX:XAUUSD
by AlphaDreams
Jnug to Gold "a couple more days of upside before the big drop"I think that we completed micro wave 3 and may have also completed a micro wave 4 today. I went ahead and, assuming that this was wave 3, I measured the price action from the start of wave 3 to the end. The I copy and pasted it and adjusted it to start from the bottom of what may be the bottom of wave 4. As you can see, if we get an equal price move for wave 5 then we should reach the $23 range. I am still being a little conservative with my first target at the top of the second gap fill. However, I also went ahead and took a measurement for an equal percentage move and you can see the purple measurement as well. And lastly you can see the Fib retracement on the far right. I am looking at a price somewhere in the 50% to 62% area. Wave 5 is supposed to be the longest for gold but not always. The COT report ends on Tuesday. Lets hope it is this time and maybe we can see the price move to touch the red resistance zone. That would be an easy sell and then I would buy JDST. Since we are due for an ICL and since there is a pretty good chance that the Fed raises rates in June, I will let our recent history steer me. That means that we should see gold fall until the FED meeting on June 14th. At that point, we should see gold rally for a decent time, into August, after the rate hike and I would expect Jnug to rally with it. The yellow hand drawn line is my expected path for a Jnug rally with gold. Looks like an ABC pattern to me. I will post the gold chart next. Oh one last thing. If Jnug does shoot up over the next two days, then the RSI 5 will be very overbought. I am predicting that it will extend higher than the top form last month and the month before that. That is a bog hidden bearish divergence possibly forming. Hmmmmmm?! So up for the next two days and then Crash. GL This is just my opinion. and one more last thing. That big blue triangle at the bottom is the approximate date range when I believe gold will reach its ICL low. I also adjusted my cycles for Jnug. If we just started a new cycle for jnug, then it would make sense for it to end a little bit before the gold cycle ends. seems to fit. we will see
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
17
Jnug to Gold "French Election weekend"So I am having a hard time reading the Jnug chart right now. Aside from the extremely oversold RSI, the positive action today for Jnug, despite weakness in gold, suggests a pop may have begun today. But I thought maybe the regular gold chart might help me get a couple of ideas about Jnug price action in the short term. I am assuming that we are going to get a bounce from the French elections this weekend. So I threw up a Fib measurement to get an idea. With Macron most likely winning the election the bounce should be small. I am targeting the 50% Fib retracement into the 1250's range. There is also a ton of resistance and moving averages in this area. The only thing that I think could get gold to break through at this point would be a La Pen victory. If she were to win, then I would think that gold would retest the long term downtrend line that we have not been able to break, somewhere in the 1280's. But I think the 1250's is more reasonable. That being said, the Jnug bounce should also be somewhat short lived as well. I am at least thinking we can fill the next couple of gaps aside from the one we are at right now. So I am at least targeting the $22.15 spot which would also possibly coincide with the dropping 50 DMA. That would equal a 62% positive move for Jnug from the recent lows. To reach the upper edge of the channel seems to be too far away with a short term pop in gold. I just don't quite see it right now. But once gold itself starts to really drop into its ICL, Jnug will probably also drop hard right back down to the single digits. Since I am anticipating that gold will drop until the 2nd week of Jnue with a possible rate hike, I am saying that gold will drop to the bottom of that blue wedge at around the 1163 - 1170 range. We should get a much better bounce at that time but then after that, I predict the real bad bloodbath will begin until the winter of next year. I think Ill put up the GDXJ and Jnug charts next to assist.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by SalN
8