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$BTCUSD (Bitcoin / USD) – A True Breakdown, But More Weakness AhBitcoin ($BTCUSD) price action remains subtle for another week with a +1.88% gain. $BTCUSD remains languishing at the $16,000 level as $3 billion escaped crypto exchanges in early November amid a bank run on fears of an FTX contagion. $BTCUSD daily action continue to morphed out a further Bearish Pennant pattern prompting the risk of a further accelerated sell off in near term remains. The level of support to watch for $BTCUSD this week remains at $15,630, a breakdown of the year to date low. Bull Case: Recapturing its declining 50-day moving average at $19,000. Bear Case: Breakdown of $15,630, the year to date low.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by jfsrevg
2
$QQQ (Nasdaq 100) – Similar Range Breakout From July 2022 May BeThe tech-heavy $QQQ gained +0.74% for the week. Similar to $SPX, $QQQ rebounded via finding support on its rising 10-day moving average. The support level to watch for $QQQ this week is revised up to 274, undercutting its current rising 10/20-day moving averages. Bull Case: Reclaim above 293 the immediate classical resistance. Bear Case: Breakdown of 274 level, undercutting its current 10/20-day moving averages.. The next support level is at 260.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by jfsrevg
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +58)$SPX regain its upward posture this week, bouncing off its rising 10-day moving average with a gain of+1.5% for the week. Aside from the seasonality factor, the upside bias was fueled by better than expected earnings reports from retail issues like Best Buy ($BBY) and Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF), along with some names from the tech space like Analog Devices ($ADI) and Dell Technologies ($DELL). Also, farm equipment company Deere ($DE) was among the more notable earnings-driven winners. At the current juncture, $SPX remains above its rising 10/20-day moving average inside the month long uptrend channel, but still caught below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,060, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,060, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,906 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,800, the current 50-day moving average level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
$BTCUSD (Bitcoin / USD) – A True Breakdown, But More Weakness Ah$BTCUSD (Bitcoin / USD) – A True Breakdown, But More Weakness Ahead Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) parred losses from the earlier week with a subtle +1.45% gain. $BTCUSD remains languishing at the $16,000 level as $3 billion escaped crypto exchanges in early November amid a bank run on fears of an FTX contagion. $BTCUSD daily action continue to morphed out a further Bearish Pennant pattern prompting the risk of a further accelerated sell off in near term remains. The level of support to watch for $BTCUSD this week remains at $15,630, a breakdown of the year to date low. Bull Case: Recapturing last week losses and reclaim above $20,000. Bear Case: Breakdown of $15,630, the year to date low.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by jfsrevg
2
$QQQ (Nasdaq 100) – Similar Range Breakout From July 2022 May BeTech and growth names have been hard hit since the start of 2022 by a rapid rise in Treasury yields on the back of expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates aggressively to combat high inflation as higher rates can hurt their companies with high valuations based on the prospect of future profits. The tech-heavy $QQQ came down lower with a loss of -1.09%, sitting on the pivot support of the highlighted consolidated range. At the current juncture, $QQQ remains above its rising 10/20-day moving average.. The support level to watch for $QQQ this week is revised up to 274, undercutting its current rising 10/20-day moving averages. Bull Case: Reclaim above 293 the immediate classical resistance. Bear Case: Breakdown of 274 level, undercutting its current 10/20-day moving averages.. The next support level is at 260.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by jfsrevg
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +18)$SPX pulled back -0.69% this week after getting rejected by the highlighted trendline resistance. At the current juncture, $SPX remains above its rising 10/20-day moving average as it remains inside the month long uptrend channel, below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,850 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,700 level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
$BTCUSD (Bitcoin / USD) – A True Breakdown With Weakness RemainBitcoin ($BTCUSD) tumbled -21.99% on its highest weekly volume since June 2022, affirming my bearish case of its price and volume contraction on weekly chart over the past five months. $BTCUSD remains languishing at the $16,000 level as $3 billion escaped crypto exchanges last week amid a bank run on fears of an FTX contagion. The latest $BTCUSD daily action have morphed out a further Bearish Pennant pattern prompting the risk of a further accelerated sell off in near term remains. The level of support to watch for $BTCUSD this week is revised lower to $15,630, a breakdown of the year to date low. Bull Case: Recapturing last week losses and reclaim above $20,000. Bear Case: Breakdown of $15,630, a year to date low.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jfsrevg
$QQQ (Nasdaq 100) – Similar Range Breakout From July 2022 May BeThe tech-heavy $QQQ surged 8.84% last week, compared with the S&P 500's 5.9% in its sharpest weekly rally of the year. This welcome inflation news, combined with a huge drop in the dollar and market rates, launched an epic rally. The $QQQ for its part soared 7.4% on Thursday alone, reclaiming its 10,20 & 50-day moving averages within the single session. Many of the beaten-up growth stocks made double-digit percentage moves, including Amazon. ($AMZN), but just about every stock came along for the CPI ride. $QQQ have currently broke out of a consolidated 6 weeks range in similar fashion to to July 2022 period. During the time, $QQQ staged a continuous rally along its rising 10/20-day moving averages towards its medium term downtrend line. The support level to watch for $QQQ this week is revised up to 270, undercutting its current 10/20-day moving averages. Bull Case: Reclaim above 310 declining 20-day moving average. Bear Case: Breakdown of 270 level, undercutting its current 10/20-day moving averages.. The next support level is at 260.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by jfsrevg
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +88)$SPX staged an aggressive rally of +6.16% after better-than expected CPI data, rebounding off its 10/20-day moving average, The huge gains were a manifestation of pent-up hope that inflation has peaked and that the ultra-aggressive nature of the Fed's policy approach has also peaked. Briefly, total CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in October while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month. The monthly changes left total CPI up 7.7% year-over-year, versus 8.2% in September, and core CPI up 6.3% year-over-year, versus 6.6% in September. The key takeaway from the report wasn't singular. It was manifold: (1) The report helped validate the peak inflation view. (2) The report is apt to compel the Fed to take a less aggressive rate-hike approach at the December FOMC meeting. (3) Some encouragement was borne out of the understanding that the shelter index (computed with a lag) contributed more than half of the monthly all items increase, suggesting price increases moderated in many other areas. $SPX currently trades inside a month long uptrend channel, below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,800 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,700 level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
3
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low 33$SPX posted its second consecutive week of gain (+3.95%), reclaiming its 50-day moving average (declining) during the week. $SPX is currently 5.6% away from recapturing its 200-day moving average. There is a growing belief among market participants that the Fed will soften its approach after the November meeting. The policy move from the Bank of Canada this week further fueled this notion. The Bank of Canada raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points versus an expected 75 basis points. The European Central Bank, however, delivered a 75 basis point increase for its key policy rates, as expected. Market participants digested a slew of economic data this week that both supported and undermined the notion that the Fed will soften its approach soon. Some of the data releases included: September PCE Prices 0.3% The key takeaway from the report is that with continued income growth and a slightly hotter than expected Core PCE price growth, the Fed has an argument to maintain its aggressive rate hike course. Weekly Initial Claims 217K The key takeaway from the report is that the initial claims data suggest the labor market continues to hold up well, which of course is something that will continue to draw the Fed’s attention. Q3 GDP-Adv. 2.6% The key takeaway from the report is that it ends a two-quarter streak of negative GDP prints. It also suggests the economy held up well in the third quarter as it started to acclimate to rising interest rates. Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased a solid 3.3%. October Consumer Confidence 102.5 The key takeaway from the report is that consumers’ concerns about inflation picked up again in October on the back of rising gas and food prices. Falling Treasury yields were also a big support factor for the stock market rally during the week. The support to watch for this week is revised up to 3,720 level, a beach of $SPX rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,110, 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,720 level, beaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,490 level.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrevg
$BTCUSD (Bitcoin / USD) – Reclaiming 10/20-Day Moving Average Is$BTCUSD (Bitcoin / USD) – Reclaiming 10/20-Day Moving Average Is a First Sign Of Strength Bitcoin ($BTCUSD +7.52%) rebounded from $18,900 support level reclaiming posture above its 10/20-day moving average. It is worth to note that $BTCUSD is now trading beneath its declining 50-day moving average. The level of support to watch for $BTCUSD this week remains at $18,900, a immediate support before reaching its year till date low $17,590. Bull Case: Reclaim above its existing 50-day moving averages at $22,000. Bear Case: Breakdown of $18,900, a immediate support before reaching its year till date low $17,590.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jfsrevg
2
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low +17) The stock market came into this shortened week of trading on a three-week losing streak. It looked on Tuesday as if that streak might be extended to four weeks, but there was an abrupt turn in sentiment that powered a strong move in the major indices over the last three sessions from 3,900 support level. The losing streak was eventually broken and both the $SPX and $QQQ had reclaimed a posture back above their 50-day moving averages. The resilience to selling efforts in the face of negative developments has fostered a sense that the market has priced in the near-term rate hikes already after enduring three, consecutive weeks of losses. At Tuesday's low, the $SPX was down 10.1% from the intraday high it saw on August 16, so there has been an added sense that the market had gotten oversold and was due for a technical bounce. At the current juncture, the mid-term downtrend remains intact as $SPX remains trading below its declining 200-day moving average, and AVWAP from all time high. The support to watch for this week remains at 3,900 level, the recent lowest level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,212 AVWAP from all time high. Immediate resistance at declining 200-day moving average and downtrend line. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,900 recent low. next support at 3,800.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrevg