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Jeromepowell

Forex Alert: Fed Officials' Six-Hour Speech Marathon Forex Alert: Fed Officials' Six-Hour Speech Marathon Will the numerous appearances of US Federal Reserve officials rock the market during the closing hours of this trading week? Over the course of six hours leading up to the market's closing this week, we will hear from Lorie K. Logan (Dallas Fed), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta), Michelle W. Bowman (Board of Governors)), and Tom Barkin (Richmond), in that order, until the forex market closes. With so many consecutive appearances, traders may experience information overload, potentially leading them to avoid the market. Alternatively, they may jump into the market during this typically low-volume session to position themselves for Monday morning trading. The hope in the latter scenario is that they will put themselves ahead of other market participants who need time to digest all the comments from the Fed officials over the weekend. On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed concerns over inflation and job data received in February following the Reserve's 25-basis rate hike. Kashkari noted that he was “open-minded” about a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike for the next one. The sentiment of other Fed officials regarding this matter should help in setting trade positions this Friday and the following week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD traders may also be interested to know that officials from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also be speaking this week. ECB’s Isabel Schnabel will be speaking on Thursday (EST) at the time of the release of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, followed by the BoE’s Huw Pill a few hours later. Christopher Waller from the US Fed will also be speaking on Thursday at 4:00 pm (EST), after Pill.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD bagged and taggedAs mentioned before, so long as DXY has not reach the finishing line, which is the higher time frame upside objective, Risk Off will still be in play. Same narrative, different pair. What happens when DXY finally gets to the upside objective? We sit sideline and study what it wants to do next. There are only 3 possible direction of the market, Bullish / Bearish / Consolidation. Usually, in my opinion, after a prolonged rally / decline, price will tend to consolidate for a bit. After consolidation comes expansion. The question is, expansion to the upside or downside? Now, this short-term bullishness of USD as I previously stated, could be Bear Market Rally for USD. Mr Powell will likely hike rates again in the next Federal Fund Rate announcement. In theory, higher interest rate means bullish for currency. But look at US domestic debt condition. Will that spook investors? Housing and Banking looks about to get crushed. US Credit Card debt climbs nearly US$1 Trillion *source: Insider Intelligent* Household debt hits record US$16.9 Trillion *source: CNN Business* Housing Market Downturn Wipes $2.3 Trillion In Value As Experts Predict Prices Could Still Tumble Another 10% *source: Forbes* US Home-Purchase Applications Drop to 28-Year Low *source: Bloomberg*
by XeroAcademy
Powell Speech hawkishPowell's speech may set the tone for Dollar to have a short term rally. I am still Bearish Dollar long term. But having heard what he said yesterday, it may give investors some sense of bullishness. At the moment and for this week, watching if DXY can really rally above the Weekly zone, and upside draw towards the Daily Volume Imbalance. Right now, its risk off scenario for DXY. How DXY behave inside this Weekly zone is kind of key. It may just consolidate till next week's US CPI, which is very possible. Just my thoughts. Trader Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy Malaysia
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy
2
You Can Have the Cake and Eat it TooCBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is now at its highest level since October 2007. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sends mixed signals in his post-FOMC meeting news conference but appears more dovish comparing to previous speeches. The Committee thinks that “on-going increases in the target range will be appropriate”. These words send stocks down minutes after the speech begins at 2:30PM. However, during the Q&A session, when the Fed Chair confirms, for the first time, that “the disinflationary process has started,” the stock market rebounds strongly and finishes in the positive territory for the day. Other mixed messages: • Inflation data shows a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases; • It would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this”; • It’s “possible” that the funds rate could stay lower than 5%; • Unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year unless inflation comes down more rapidly. Actions speak louder than words. In two rate-setting meetings, the Fed has slowed the pace from 75 bps to 25 bps. The path is not likely to reverse, and future rate hikes will come down to just two options, either 0 or 25 bps. In my opinion, the terminal rate will end at 5% or 5.25% after the March and May meeting. In recent months, the “Risk” button has been pressed on for risky assets: • The Dow is up 19% since October, and the S&P and the Nasdaq are up 17% and 18% for the same period, respectively; • Gold futures rallies 21% since November, while Bitcoin jumps 58%; • Tesla and Ark Innovation ETF gain 47% and 33% year-to-date, respectively. Historically, it’s rare for the stock market to dip two years or more in a row. For the S&P 500, it only happened four times in the last 100 years. The odds favor stock investors in the Year of Rabbits after a brutal double-digit selloff in 2022. Fed rate hikes and high inflation are like a brake that decelerated the running economy car. Now that the driver’s foot is off the brake, will the economy improve immediately? Not so fast. We will endure higher costs for months to come. Take the example of food items, once the price goes up, it usually stays up for the year. Sometimes, suppliers resolve to reducing the size of package for the illusion of keeping the same price, a tactic known as “Shrinkflation”. Wages, rent, phone bill, cable TV, utility, homeowner association fees and sales tax also seldom go down. All these point to a sticky inflation. Without massive government stimulus to press the gas pedal, subdued growth is on the horizon. However, the stock market is forward looking. Investors already see an "invisible foot" on the accelerator and begin buying in the dip. On balance, I’m bullish about risky assets, but would consider protecting my investments carefully. The inversed yield curve is a proven and tested signal of a potential recession. The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread is at -64 bps after the Fed rate decision. The yield spread turned negative last July and stayed below zero in the last seven months. Major crises could break out unexpectedly, crashing our party. The year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict could intensify, tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate, and the US government might not be able to avoid a national debt default. A Hedged Position on Stock Index Futures We could consider using the CME Micro E-mini S&P futures to establish a bullish position on the U.S. stock market. The June contract MESM3 is currently quoted at 4177, which is 58 points above the cash index. To protect my position from any adverse market movement, an out-of-the-money put option could be placed at the 3950-strike. If you are more pessimistic, a lower strike of 3840 may be considered. The benefit of futures over cash index ETFs lies with the leverage. With a smaller margin deposit upfront, investment return could be amplified if the market moves in your favor. The downside is that the loss will also ramp up quickly if the market moves against you. Put options protect us from any downfall below the strike price. Unlike futures, the maximum loss from a long options position is the premium you have paid upfront. A combination of long futures and long put options is, in theory, limited downside with unlimited upside. The risk and return tradeoff are asymmetry in this case. As a result, you can have the cake and eat it too! Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
BITCOIN- Inflation is Better, Rates are ok, Let's go Powello,25% Rate Hike and this could potentially be it... or most likely almost it Then again it's up to the FEDS and especially Jerome Powell and his statement at the FOMC Press Conference. Jobs are ok, Inflation has eased (thanks to cheaper Oil and Gas prices mostly) GDP is also ok, in the US and China also At the same time consumer spending and Homes sales is declining, a recession needs to be avoided The democrats would prefer the easing.. will Jerome do them (and us, Bitcoin and crypto holders) a favor? Why not!!! What to expect? 1. A Dovish statement will push things higher. No more hikes or 'almost done with hikes statement' will help BTC look for 24-26-30k targets 2. A Hawkish statement like ' No celebrations, inflation still far away from 2% so we need to be strict' will push expectations lower for now and 22k support will need to be tested. 3. Most likely a mixed statement and a question-mark for what's coming next is the most likely scenario. 22-24 range will be the norm for a while until bulls and bears figure it out eventually. What i propose? BTC Only Long, i prefer to hedge with some short on Alts. I think the market is most likely ready for higher and Bitcoin will reach 30k this year..potentially 50k as well if the fundamentals go right. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR ps. so we got the 3rd..markets don't seem to be spooked and a rise could be expected, to at least 24k
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
8
Powell's Power!As of recently we have been in a small bull run. Bulls have been pumping on bad news, being dumb and relentlessly rallying. This is normal for bulls though so what can we expect? Bulls gonna do what bulls gonna do! We are at a strong resistance/supply level however, the bulls have been very violent and are out for blood as they aim to plow through this resistance/supply zone. In a few days we get the new interest rate numbers and if the FED decides to pause the rate hike then the bulls will go crazy and pump spy even higher. A rate hike will most likely drag spy down a bit and put us into lower 400s or higher 390s but, lately bulls have been pumping on bad numbers so we cannot accurately determine their next move. The bulls are at the end of a tunnel and they see the light so they will not stop at any costs, join the rally or get stomped shorting. I'm not a bull or a bear but the trend is your friend, that is if you can spot it.
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
Ridiculous play incomingMarket trying to front run the fed, and trying to convince fed itself that fed is going to pivot XD (like a bunch of degenerates). And celebrating the likelihood of 25 bps like it's the start of bull market, even though several members of the fed this week have been hawkish. Even Jerome Powell himself has said, fed will have to do something the majority wouldn't like. Anyways this is kind of ridiculous but here is my expectation XD. Currently we got rejected several time near the year long bear channel resistance.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by jobanis
4
I Smell a Santa Claus RallyWith inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering in his tone on inflation, but the last FOMC meeting was much softer. I expect that again with inflation ticking down as proof of low inflationary expectations. I mean, you can hear people freaking out about the economy everywhere. I don't think inflationary expectations are high lol. Listen to his last speech and you can hear a dramatic tone shift. Here's last FOMC Press Meeting After rate hike in mid November: www.brookings.edu HARD LANGUAGE Here's his "Inflation and the Labor Market" speech on 11/30: www.youtube.com SOFT LANGUAGE Long term? You'll have to look at my first post to see that. Enjoy, and you can find a link to an Economic Release calendar down below for you to save. InTheMoney
TVC:NDQLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
5
Why the CPI Report Matters and Could be a Bullish Catalyst As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a lower CPI report is more likely in the near-term than a tick up in inflation, with a possible higher than 50bp increase and a decline in equites, it could go either way. Later, when the lagging effects of QT are felt, I expect a further decline in the market as discussed in my previous thesis. It is also possible that inflation stays near its current 7.7%, in which case there may not be too large of a response in equity markets tomorrow. The bigger the move in CPI, the bigger the move in equites. VIX is inching up in anticipation of this binary event. I am linking this thesis with "long" because I believe the negative CPI trend will continue and result in a near-term rally, but this is only because I feel there is a higher probability of this occurring, not that it is by any means certain. InTheMoney
AMEX:SPYLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
Powell in the hot seatThis week we see what the fed is truly made of. Given continued hawkishness from the Fed in their minutes, by the end of Wednesday I believe we could be hovering just above the pre-covid highs in wait of the inflation report Thursday. If inflation is shown not to be slowing down I believe the follow through on this move down could be jaw dropping. In that case, limit down Sunday night is well within reasonable to test the Fed's resolve with regard to their tough talk. I'm not holding any position over night as the Fed could capitulate at any time if things start unraveling.
AMEX:SPYShort
by jforet6112
$SOLANA - Back in Bullish TerritoryHello my Fellow TraderZ, So here we have $SOL today which is trying to hold up here after breaking the Trendline. Few more candles above the Resistance will clear the line for LONG Signal. Also see the Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern, which is still validate and post- breakout the price is retesting the neckline. All eyes on Powell Feedback about #CRYPTO's future now till then waiting before any further trade. Happy Trading Fam. Cheers!!!
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
USDCAD:Dollar too strong!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3410 (stop at 1.3350) Previous support located at 1.3500. Previous resistance located at 1.3530. Further upside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3530 and 1.3550 Resistance: 1.3530 / 1.3550 / 1.3600 Support: 1.3500 / 1.3450 / 1.3410 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
BITCOIN -10% DROP?$BTC dropped 8% last following Jerome Powell's hawkish messages at Jackson hole, stock market lost billions of dollars after the 8 minutes speech. Inflation is getting out of control if central banks don't move aggressively and Powell know that, this is why he sounded so hawkish : “We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%,” he said. For more clarity one should wait for the next fed meeting in 21 September, 50bps hike is expected at least. Technically, $BTC broke below the bear flag support and a new bearish impulse to the down side is expected next week as DXY soars while stock market continue going lower. Take a look at DXY: Take a look at $SPY: Take a look at US100:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by dogofwallstreets
NYT: Fighting the Fed?!New York Times Co Short Term - We look to Buy at 29.68 (stop at 27.17) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Trend line support is located at 29.60. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 35.79 and 39.00 Resistance: 35.90 / 47.50 / 56.00 Support: 29.30 / 22.00 / 16.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:NYTLong
by VantageMarkets
Another Dip in the Market. What's the Silver Lining for Crypto?With inflation's end nowhere near in sight, the Federal Reserve this week announced more "tough times" ahead - indicating that they're likely to do more interest hikes for the rest of 2022. Inflation rates in the US right now sits around %8-10 - but since CPI reports exclude food and energy prices by design, the "real" inflation rate is likely a lot higher. Most people see the prices of food and gas rising in their own lives and are probably feeling more than what the "official" numbers say, at least. A lot have been said about what this means for the economy as a whole, but if you're a crypto investor the things to recognize are: - This is the first time in history that the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates during a recession - normally you lower rates as the economy dips to give it a boost, but the Feds have no room to do that since the rate was already at 0 for most of the last decade. The problem is much more severe than it is typically reported, especially in the wake of the COVID lockdown procedures that we have yet to experience the full effects of, yet. Some are predicting a market correction as high as 50-60% in stocks, 30-40% in real-estate. We don't know if it's going to go that high but there's no reason to think that it's going to improve, at this point. ("Brace for impact", as many have been warning for a while - it's finally coming.) - Increases in interest rates generally means borrowing is more expensive, which is likely going to slow down startup investments in the Web3 space, too. Crypto projects, VC/VC firms, and "thought leaders" in the space as we know now are likely to disappear in the next few years as access to cheap money dries out. - Crypto projects that have been heavily reliant on marketing to keep their prices up will likely tank with the fiat markets, because of its increased overlap with the mainstream economy. Even Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, etc. may be in trouble since their notoriety may turn sour when the fiat markets tumbles further. (Being well-known is not an asset in this case, in other words.) - Currently the most popular crypto coins have no means of reacting to inflation rates (except for Ethereum, which will begin its staking services after the "merge" in September, in theory), so they may struggle to justify convincing people to HODL while the banks start to offer higher interest rates for savings accounts overall. Staking coins like Tezos , Algorand (ALGO), Cosmos(ATOM), are in better position to take advantage of these trends since they are, at least for now, outperforming the banks by a very large margin. - When the economy as a whole starts to get unstable the common wisdom is that money will flow into the USD. We don't know if that will happen this time - especially with the USD's credit rating outlooks having deemed "negative" by international agencies since 2013. We know that generally speaking, interest in crypto assets tends to increase in countries where its fiat currencies are less stable - but that often requires a breaking point in which the population loses faith in the banking system as a whole. Are we at that point, yet? - For crypto prices to stay stable, all it needs is about 1% of existing fiat money to maintain its current price. (The general economy is about a 100x bigger than the crypto economy as a whole right now.) But it's allocation, per coin, is not likely to stay even. Crypto will bottom out with the fiat economies, but only a select few coins are likely to make a comeback during the recovery process. Many crypto investors are banking (literally) on the general public losing faith in the fiat system as the market dips further, which will make crypto investments look more appealing. The most obvious "utility" for crypto right now is staking rewards - which are objectively outperforming the banks right now, but the bear market will also be a period for altcoins working on providing real value to its users to come out ahead. It's going to be a wild ride either way - good luck, folks. 🤞
Editors' picks
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
16
GBP/USD jumps on weak US housing dataThe British pound has jumped 0.82% today, as the currency has rebounded somewhat from its worst week of the year. GBP/USD plunged 2.53% last week, as the US dollar has found its mojo after weeks of beating a retreat. GBP/USD has climbed today after US New Home Sales dropped to 511 thousand in July, down from 585 thousand in August and well below expectations. UK manufacturing slides The UK Manufacturing PMI crashed into contraction territory in August. The index fell to 46.0, down from 52.1 in July and shy of the estimate of 51.1. The dismal reading is part of a pan-European downward trend in manufacturing, which has been made worse by the prolonged war in Ukraine. Output has been hampered by higher costs, a drop in demand and supply chain problems. CBI Manufacturing Output fell by 7% in the three months to August, according to the CBI, down from +6% in the three months to July. This was the first decline in output since February 2021. Manufacturers are also affected by rising energy bills and higher interest rates, and the situation is only expected to get worse. The energy cap will rise in October and the BoE will have to continue raising rates in order to defeat inflation. There was better news from Services PMI, which was almost unchanged at 52.5, pointing to weak expansion (52.6 prior). Still, it's hard to see how the UK can avoid a recession with weak growth and spiralling inflation. Business optimism is dropping, and that will likely lead to a cutback in spending, hiring and investment, which won't help the economy one bit. There is plenty of anticipation ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, but investors shouldn't overlook some key events prior to Powell's speech. Durable goods orders will be published on Wednesday, with the headline reading expected to slow to 0.6% in July, down sharply from 2.0% in June. Thursday brings US GDP for Q2, which is expected to come in at -0.8% QoQ, after a 0.9% reading in the first quarter. With the Fed stating that US data will be critical in determining its rate policy, the dollar could show some movement after these releases, just as it fell sharply today after the soft New Home Sales reading. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1924 and 1.2005 There is support at 1.1699 and 1.1568
by OANDA
1
SPX Bull trap?It is time to pause, I will look into and analyze history'because as they say "history does not repeat itself but it rhymes" I would like to present the comparison of the SPX with the fall suffered in 2007. If we take as a reference the fall of the Great Recession of 2007, it was a fall of 57% during 518 days that means 17 continuous months of fall, the situation was terrible. Extrapolating it to 2022, taking into account that the fall lasted that long and the fall was -57%, it replicates so far the trend and movements of 2007. Are we facing a BULL TRAP or should we rather BUY THE DIP? Today 20/08/2022 Best regards, good investment.
SP:SPX
by wallstreetstocks
Mission AccomplishedI miss the days when presidents would visit an aircraft carrier and declare their mission has been accomplished. I guess you can say Jerome Powell has accomplished his mission by returning the S&P to its 10 year trend channel when he turned hawkish back in January. See my Bear Case for January Analysis I posted below. This chart is an update for one of my 2021 charts on the same that clearly shows the effect QE on VS QE off. So where do we go from here? Sauds gave Biden a big sike to hiking oil production. Increasing tensions with China over Taiwan. The days when all we had to worry about was Oil, now its Oil and Sand. Its going to be a cold winter. Wait until next spring when there is a global fertilizer crisis. FED is going to need to continue to hike. Jobs are going to increasingly get scarce. House prices will start turning over at increasingly greater rate. people with 2 yr fixed is starting to roll over now, 3 yr next. Sorry Cancel Culture. Your future has been Cancelled.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
1
USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king. 1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down. 2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside. 3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend. 4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800 5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow. 6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my idea, would be great if you could like and follow :D My target is to benefit as many traders as I can with practical knowledge which would give you confidence. Let me know if you have any questions or if there's anything more I can do to help! Thank you <3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UShort
by Exactus
2