Rally into 2023? Likely rally into 2023, spurred by downward trend in inflation. Likely 25bp hike at next meeting, then full stop to evaluate the damage (and give time for lagging economic data to catch up to policy changes). Unemployment will rise, possibly some deflation, and fed will cut rates towards the end of 2023 in response to negative economic data. This will cause a second drawdown. Well, the rates will be correlated with a second drawdown, but the real correlation will be between the negative data and equities.
My initial thoughts as we move into a new year. Should be an interesting one.
Love,
InTheMoney
