JETS
JETS ETF bearish inclined naked calls - 16 Oct expiryOnce again I'm re-entering a JETS options trade given the low volatility. The industry still weak and I don't think we will see much upwards movement in the next month.
1 Sep when a majority of stock spiked upwards. JETS had minimal movement.
As such I sold calls at the high of a key price resistance point. The current RSI is at a high band of 66. I did not cover this options trade as I realised my covered options did not protect when volatility increased and the strike got closer. I'm coming up with ways that I can better hedge against volatility but for now, I am relying on basic TA and historical low price movements
Sold 80 Calls @ 0.25, Strike 22
BP block: 15k
Max gain - est $1958.05
JETS ETF - Protected Bearish Inclination 18 Sep expiry There seems to be a resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the globe. Before Sep 18 I doubt there would be positive news for the travel industry, especially in the US.
As price broke the support line, technically theres a chance it will continue dropping.
Positive news on the stimulus won't help travel and I do not expect an influx of investors into the travel industry as it is one of the weakest sectors and money would probably flow first into something more solid like tech or at least the S&P 500.
This is a protected trade. If price goes bearish, I have a chance to hit my max gain of est. $3222 but I must close the contract before it drops too much my way otherwise I will start losing.
If prices don't go my way (goes bulls up) or ranges I will collect est. $1250
Would prefer this to be a 4 weeks contract, but 18 Sep (8 Weeks) had a better price for my trade structure
Sold 80 Puts @ 0.26, Strike 12
Bought 10 Puts @ 0.73 Strike 14
BP block: 10k
Max gain - est $3222
Planned Minimum gain - est $1250
Boeing finally showing a trendTechnical analysis
Boeing showing support at the trend-line forming since the march lows.
A close below $152 is a break of the lower highs trend
Sentiment, technicals, and fundamental views for Boeing are weak. However:
risk-reward-ratio is very attractive
Still a global duopoly (Boeing and Airbus)
Heavy support from the government to help it succeed
JETS ETF Call Options With Bears ProtectionJETS invests in both U.S. and non-U.S. companies involved with the airline industry, including passenger airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airports and terminal services companies.
Due to COVID-19 it's one of the weakest sectors and from my observations it seems to fall first and raise last vs the S&P 500. As countries are slowly opening and getting a grip on the virus or at least are forced to push forward to avoid further economic impact, JETS ETF could potentially move up. I am around 70% inclined to this, especially since price seems to have breakthrough a range of 15.79 - 11.28
To protect myself from bearish moves. I loaded up on call contracts at a higher strike. This means that no matter how low price goes I will always get +$875. However my profits are capped at strike 20.99 with my risk being price moving upwards beyond strike 21.45. The plan of course would be to close the trade before.
Sell Calls 31 July - Strike 21, 0.3, Qty 45
Buy Calls 31 July - Strike 18, 0.95, Qty 5
JETS ETF - Robinhood Rally At Risk.JETS ETF has gapped down and fallen below its upward trendline. Price action is seeking a higher-low level to establish support.
Once the support level has been established, price could then reverse to seek out a lower-high level and establish resistance.
Resistance 3 area: 21.28 to 22.04
Resistance 2 area: 19.14 to 20.15
Resistance 1 area: 17.11 to 18.13
Support 1 area: 15.95 to 15.01
Support 2 area: 14.11 to 13.02
Support 3 area: 12.04 to 11.05
June 14 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
4-Day Island; Thursday Liquidation; Balance Area Below S&P 500 $2,975; Friday Corrective Action.
Technical:
Risk-off sentiment after equity indices erased an earlier gap that occurred on hopeful economic data. The island of balance left behind will offer resistance on any correction higher. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday overnight traded to a low-volume area from Friday creating a ledge at $3,211 that the market later moved through, into the close. Prices above the ledge were rejected after Tuesday's overnight auctioned below the breakout point, down to resting liquidity at $3,190.
Wednesday's FOMC meeting officially ended the move higher as volatility increased and the market closed lower. Thursday displayed a rush from risk as selling was persistent and strong into the close.
Friday failed to generate continued selling below $3,000, closing above a prior balance area and VWAP.
Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a correction up to the coming Friday option expiration. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
New York Federal Reserve’s Business Conditions Index; Retail Sales; Initial Claims; Industrial Production; Housing Starts; Housing Permits; Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Index; U.S. Current Account Deficit.
Fundamental:
Short-term speculative derivatives activity results in more hedging and volatility. bit.ly
COVID-19 coronavirus data may have not prompted recent selling. bloom.bg
Keeping unproductive companies going lowers long-run economic growth. bloom.bg
The Congressional Budget Office sees virus relief reaching $2.2 trillion this year. bloom.bg
U.S. gasoline consumption rebounds, led by removal of mobility restrictions. reut.rs
May default volume brought YTD default volume to its highest since May 2009. bit.ly
Coronavirus obliterated the best African-American job market on record. on.wsj.com
Fed to buy as many bonds as necessary to keep yields at desired level. bit.ly
After-tax profits for retail companies fell more than expected. bit.ly
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) to stop using Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) chips. bloom.bg NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:INTC
Incoming shift to digital may grow Amazon Inc’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS revenues. bit.ly NASDAQ:AMZN
The U.S. saw its largest decline in business owners between February and April. bit.ly
BP plc (NYSE: BP) to cut global workforce by 10,000. bit.ly NYSE:BP
Unrest and inequality pose fiscal and governance credit risks for states and cities. bit.ly
Airlines unlikely to fully recover before 2023, face structural changes. bit.ly AMEX:JETS
The U.S. consumer price index continues falling, sparks talk of deflation. bit.ly
Flat yield curves are a key threat to bank margins as rates stay low for longer. bit.ly
Hong Kong’s relief measures reduce pressure on bank asset quality. bit.ly
New SEC rules on crowdfunding a boost to capital raising for startups. bit.ly
Auctioneers race to unload oil equipment as drilling interest dries up. reut.rs
Senators draft plan to reform new plane design approvals. reut.rs NYSE:BA
American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) to halt cash burn by year-end. reut.rs NASDAQ:AAL
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) downgrade Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) noting current valuation underestimates risks including increased competition. reut.rs NYSE:GS NYSE:MS NASDAQ:TSLA
The Fed expects household finances to suffer persistent fragilities due to shock. reut.rs
U.S. consumer confidence rises while unemployment shadow lingers. reut.rs
Fed Chair Powell is devoted to the return of a strong labor market. reut.rs
Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NYSE: HTZ) seizes on speculation with stock sale. reut.rs NYSE:HTZ
Sentiment: 34.3% Bullish, 27.7% Neutral, 38.1% Bearish as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 5,515,247,892 as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 49.7% as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD
Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CW approaching resistance!! ( $BA $JETS $LMT $SPY )Read more at www.tradingview.com
CW -short
Entry area sell short - $117.40
buy to cover target 1 $112.50
buy to cover target 2 $107.50
buy to cover stoploss 118.50
Curtiss-Wright Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and overhauls precision components, and engineered products and services primarily to the aerospace, defense, general industrial, and power generation markets worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Commercial/Industrial, Defense, and Power.
JETS propelled past channelJETS is breaking a bear triangle formation channel, with very high volume as seen in chart.
In the chart you can see the next resistance drawn. Which are the 200 and 50 simple moving average.
OBV has been trending higher, making higher lows, and is following the channel drawn.
JETS is an ETF holding airline stocks, its portfolio top 4 holdings and % weight are:
LUV (13.66%) - Southwest
AAL (12.49%) - American
DAL (11.00%) - Delta
UAL (10.52%) - United
Total= 47.47%
Airlines: Ready to take off Jets is a ETF of multiple airlines. ALK is Alaska Airline which was a huge winner since 2010 but has now had a fairly long sideways consolidation. I think they both are primed to go up again. If buy now you could use any daily close <then the current weekly low as a stop.
some authors notes:
seekingalpha.com
seekingalpha.com
Airlines are flashing bullilsh signsHere is another chart sporting a compelling story. A bullish one that is. As my other recent posts, the Dow Jones US Airlines seems to indicate there's still life in this bull market. From its high of early 2015, the index decline in pretty much a textbook flat i.e. an ABC with wave B trying to kiss the high. Then we have near equality between A and C. Another interesting observation, the decline lasted very close to a Fibonacci 13 months or a Fibonacci 55 Weeks.
Markets are patterned. In time and shape. You just have to deal with the fact that is rarely clear cut. Actually I think it has to be murky enough for most people to not believe in that theory so they can produce those patterns.
The bottom line is the current advance from recent low is impulsive indicating the trend is now up and one as to expect at least 3 waves up at minimum for the airlines are bullish long term until we can count a sequence of 5 waves.
Is it going to run out of Fuel? Bearish Bat completionWith the drop in oil prices, $JETS, the new ETF that holds airline companies like Delta ($DAL), American Airlines ($AAL) and southwest airlines company ($LUV) had a very nice rally during the month of July.
The $ETF rallied all the way up to the 88.6 Fib level to complete a bearish Bat pattern and declined from there.
The pattern's targets are 23.5$ and 23$ which also come with daily support zones.
The current price level offer about 1:1 R/R ration for the short position with stop loss above X and 23.5$ as initial target zone.
This might work with the bullish scenario I posted earlier for oil