JNJ
JNJ - 10% Upside OpportunityPrice is showing sign of a completed ending diagonal structure.
We are looking for price to move higher from here potentially towards 133.43 - 136.93 area.
**Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)_May_08_2018JNJ has had a good run since the beginning of 2017. Although, the stock price has dropped from a high of $148 to $122, I think reality is catching up with investors that equity valuations have been quite expensive and that it is time for some correction. I believe the fundamentals of the company remain strong although the liabilities with rising interest rates may be a cause for concern.
I believe the current scenario presents an opportunity to short the stock. Based on the head the shoulder pattern, the price is expected to drop to $110-$115 range.
JNJLong JNJ via short put spread.
Short Mar16 125/130 put spread for $1.10.
POP: 69%
BPR: $390
Max loss: $390
Max Win: $110
Target: 50-60% of credit received
Stop loss: Price at $127 or $350ish loss.
short 130 put: 37 delta
long 125 put: 15 delta
If this starts to get really ugly, I may pull off before $127.
JNJ: another fallen giantJNJ is yet another giant trading under the 200SMA.
Even though we had a strong earnings beat last week JNJ was not protected from the dip.
When the inevitable bottom is formed, I will be looking at these large caps under the 200 for bargain buys.
Hard to say what the near term status is for JNJ, following that of the market.
I would be looking for buys in the $122 range.
JNJ put saleJNJ had a massive move down on their earnings. This is one of the largest candles I can even find on the chart for JNJ. As is approached the 50EMA I was looking for Bull Put Spread or Put Sale premium. Because of dividends being at the end of February and the 200 SMA down around 134. It seems like a no brainer.
October 17 Earnings: Johnson&Johnson- Generic Competition GaloreJohnson & Johnson has been on an impressive intra-quarterly run with solid performance across major segments.
Strengths in the company's performance are to be driven by:
-Imbruvica and Darzalex should continue to perform well. Meaningful improvement from Stelara and Xarelto.
-New product launches like Tremfy (approved in the US late 2017 for plaque psoriasis)
-Revenue contribution from Swiss biotech Actelion, which J&J bought in June.
-Medical devices segment is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory with new product launches.
Weaknesses for the quarter are expected to be:
-Key arthritis drug Remicade to remain under pressure from generic competition.
-Invokana hurting from higher managed care discounting.
-Sluggish FDA review requiring more information before approving new drug treatments.
-Lawsuit from Pfizer to be clarified during the conference call.
Overall, I believe high expenses and generic competition will overcome the positives for the quarter.
I'm starting Johnson&Johnson with a $130 PT for the post earnings move with a tight but flexible 2.5% stop.
JNJ, waiting for the breakoutJNJ is consolidating the previous bullish movements by moving in a sideways parallel channel. If the stock breaks lower the minimum target is around 126 and if the bearish movement goes on the T2 would be around 122. If the stock breaks higher, then the target is around 144. The breakout must be confirmed by very high volume. If it doesn't, it may be a fakeout.
The informations and the strategies discussed are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes. They are not a
recommendation to buy, sell or trade any securities.
JNJ, a 75 cents risk daily bullish Bat Pattern. (MCD FTF trade)Both of JNJ and MCD are stocks that I want to have in my retirement portfolio, they are typical stocks that worth the easiest buy and hold strategy.
While it doesn't mean they are not tradable at all,since if I don't really want to risk 10-20% for a mid-term investment, I may turn to some tiny risk short-term trading opportunities.
Here JNJ got a daily bat pattern with a suggest entry near 130.30.
Also, 130 fig support itself is usually strong enough to rely on, so I would like to buy off the support with this 2 strategies' combination.
JNJ is a stock that worth more than 10% risk, if I can trade it with only 75 cents risk, I can trade much much more shares if I'm willing to risk the same amount of money. (for sure I won't risk as much though)
Of course less rooms mean lower winning percentage, and being stopped out in such a name with such tiny risk sounds silly.
While my purpose for day-trading is always to create longer term swing positions, and I don't mind if the trade failed as it's the risk I'm willing to lose, and it will be very good positions if the trade succeeds.
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On the other hand, the MCD 160 breakout is another trade that I'm very willing to get involved.
It has tried several times and consolidate a lot in front of it , which should accumulate much power for the breakout. 156.95 might be a good out for the swing trade with 162.95 1st kick.
160 level could be a intraday FTF trade (I believe no one knows FTF trade, since I invented it lol)
FTF trade: find a 5 minute or 15 minute out for the day traders who trade the breakout , put a buy limit 1:1 to their risk, put the out to the previous pivot low in the given time frame.
EX: if the potential out is 159.80, the 160 breakout's risk are 20 cents, so FTF trade will put a buy limit @ 159.60.
*the potential out is the out day traders may use if they are involved with the breakout, so think about where they will put the out to find the potential out.
Logic:
If the 1st try of the breakout fails, the traders who traded the breakout will be stopped out and it created extra, unnecessarily selling pressure that causes slippage.
The people who can benefit from the slippage are the people who already put their buy limit there.
It's a trade that I invented after suffering slippage a lot and I tried several times back then I day-traded a lot.
Overbought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Set To Drop 4%Johnson & Johnson has been in a bullish trend since 2009. On a few occasions through this trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar or higher levels, than they are now. These instances have resulted in short-term losses for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending drop for Johnson & Johnson which are laid out below.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 86.2704. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is well overbought and it one of its highest levels ever recorded for this stock.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3091 and the negative is at 0.5914. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive value is relatively high and is beginning to slow its upward movement. This slowing momentum is an additional signal the stock should turn downward soon.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 93.2126 and D value is 92.3311. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is very overbought. It cannot sit at this level much longer. Once the K value crosses below the D, the stock should begin to drop.
SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
I have created an algorithm (called SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria which culminates in an oversold or overbought alert. That signal will occur within the next few days once the stock sees two days of consecutive drops. Because this signal will go off after continued drops, now is the best time to enter a position and take greater advantage of the pending downward movement.
Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 139 times dating back to 1970. Eighty percent of the time the stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days after the indicator date. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops 2% and fifty percent of the time drops 4%.
In the history of this stock, it always drops a minimum of 4.52% when the positive VI is at or above its current level at the same time the RSI is at or above its current level. This additional study requires the stochastic to be overbought as it is today too. Since this current bull began in 2008-2009, the RSI has never reached it current level. I do not like only having one data point to base projections from, however, multiple signals are at play and support a drop from the stock's current level.
The stock is also at its long-term (since 2009) resistance line. The stock has broken above this line twice before. Both times the high of the day broke above this line, while the stock always closed below it. The exact same thing has occurred today. The median drop on those occasions was 9.83% and it occurs over an average of the following 17 trading days.
The SAG, record-high RSI reading, and flirtation with the long-term resistance line all point to downward movement for JNJ. Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could drop at least 5% over the next 31 trading days if not sooner.
JNJ analysis nearing a peak, 3rd of a 3rd of a 5th waveThis analysis combines channelling, 200 SMA, and Elliott Wave. I noticed a breakout chart by user 'pardis,' and decided to trade the stock. Here is my own analysis of the stock after purchasing a few shares with an entry at 130.98/130.45. There was a breakout around 129, and I looked into the price history to have a better understanding of where the stock possibly is heading towards. Pardis gave an upwards prediction of going to around 139, so I am using an All or Nothing trade strategy, with the intent to use stop losses possibly around end of day, 2R, and 3R. My Elliott Wave analysis shows that there has been a long term since 2015 bullish trend going on, with the stock already in an ending 5th wave movement. The 5th wave seems to also be extended, with the current price action showing it to be in a 3rd of a 3rd wave movement. I predict that this sentiment can last throughout the summer for quite some while, before finally peaking around the levels that 'pardis' had indicated. The stock also seems to have bounced recently off near the 200 SMA during the 4th wave change. This well known stock seems to also be coinciding with some possible peaking action within the indices. As they seem to be going through some impulsive moves upwards, there will likely be a correction sooner or later.
Double Top Resistance Approaching Quickly On $JNJ.Healthcare products maker Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is nearing a double top resistance point on the stock chart. The level is $126 and is the former all-time high on the stock from July 2016. A double top on the stock chart is a technical term that tells investors there will be heavy selling at that point. It likely will be tough for Johnson & Johnson to go higher in the near-term. Often, investors and traders will sell double tops short, profiting when the stock pulls back. That is what I will be looking to do if Johnson & Johnson hits double top this week. The stock has run too far, too fast in the last few weeks. In the last month, Johnson & Johnson is up from $111 to $124. For this historically slow moving stock, that is insane.
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JNJ @ daily @ closed last 6 trading days lower every dayThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
Closings Bearish (Dow Jones Index incl. all shares)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Johnson&Johnson seen lower in the coming weeksThere is no real change in the dominant bear trend, as prices pressure $110.00.
Stochastics and sentiment continue to weaken, highlighting further downside risks into the coming weeks.
In tandem, Healthcare is also weakening and, along with JNJ, further underperformance relative to the SP500 Index is highlighted.