Major GDX breakout coming The major down trend has converged with the short-term and intermediate trend. We've also built a basing formation and in a pennant consolidation pattern. I think we auction up to the major 38% fib and 50% of the trend.
JNUG
Jnug to Gold 5/22/17I decided to start with the gold chart today. We have once again closed above the 50 week MA, which is the thick blue line. I am looking for price to move above 1264.75 to confirm that we are in a wave 5. If that is confirmed, probably overnight, then I am targeting that yellow box area for a top for gold. Then we should turn down with a vengeance. I am not one that believes that we just completed a ICL a couple of weeks ago. Price is supposed to break the trend line not bounce off of it. Plus we have a rate hike coming up in June and as is typical gold behavior, gold drops until the day of the rate hike and then rallies pretty hard. So if I am correct, and gold pushes up to that yellow box, this should help Jnug finally rally past that red resistance area. It will have a hard time moving much higher than the gap fill due to the BBands being already compressed and the 50 DMA up there as well. Lets see how tomorrow goes.
Jnug chart will be posted next.
Gold Daily Ichimoku and Possible Head and ShouldersWe are now at a retracement of .618 of the drop from 1295 and nearing the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Bullish cloud could support the price but might only carry it to a lower high but I'll long the breakout if it pushes higher than the head. I'm watching the upper part of the cloud near .707 at 1272 to see if it pushes higher or turns south forming the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders. The red possible neckline and channel will determine short confirmation for me. I'll add to short/long at 1295/1215 respectively.
Good luck, have fun, be safe!
Cup & handle, backtest of previous TL completeJNUG has successfully backtested the previous TL and is forming the handle of cup and handle pattern. I expect continuation around $2 (pre-split). That translates to $8 now.
TP is $30 (previous TP was $27 so I still may take some there)
Invalidate if previous TL is breached.
Gold - Bullish Cypher PatternPotential Bullish Cypher pattern on XAUUSD with 1245 target for next week.
TREND SIGNAL = LONG, MAY 10 @ $30.95 ($GDXJ $JNUG $GLD $NUGT)May 15: Miners continue their run up from the early May lows. Today opened at the 50 MA and turned down hard. But the bulls stepped back in to end the day nicely above the 5 MA. From here it needs it needs break through the 50 MA to head towards a couple gap fills above. On the downside it would be rather bearish to see this break todays low. One could possibly try an entry here with today's low as a stop loss point.
Jnug to Gold "a couple more days of upside before the big drop"I think that we completed micro wave 3 and may have also completed a micro wave 4 today. I went ahead and, assuming that this was wave 3, I measured the price action from the start of wave 3 to the end. The I copy and pasted it and adjusted it to start from the bottom of what may be the bottom of wave 4. As you can see, if we get an equal price move for wave 5 then we should reach the $23 range. I am still being a little conservative with my first target at the top of the second gap fill. However, I also went ahead and took a measurement for an equal percentage move and you can see the purple measurement as well. And lastly you can see the Fib retracement on the far right. I am looking at a price somewhere in the 50% to 62% area. Wave 5 is supposed to be the longest for gold but not always. The COT report ends on Tuesday. Lets hope it is this time and maybe we can see the price move to touch the red resistance zone. That would be an easy sell and then I would buy JDST. Since we are due for an ICL and since there is a pretty good chance that the Fed raises rates in June, I will let our recent history steer me. That means that we should see gold fall until the FED meeting on June 14th. At that point, we should see gold rally for a decent time, into August, after the rate hike and I would expect Jnug to rally with it. The yellow hand drawn line is my expected path for a Jnug rally with gold. Looks like an ABC pattern to me. I will post the gold chart next. Oh one last thing. If Jnug does shoot up over the next two days, then the RSI 5 will be very overbought. I am predicting that it will extend higher than the top form last month and the month before that. That is a bog hidden bearish divergence possibly forming. Hmmmmmm?! So up for the next two days and then Crash. GL This is just my opinion.
and one more last thing. That big blue triangle at the bottom is the approximate date range when I believe gold will reach its ICL low. I also adjusted my cycles for Jnug. If we just started a new cycle for jnug, then it would make sense for it to end a little bit before the gold cycle ends. seems to fit. we will see
XAUUSD testing support and heading back up to 1260+I think XAUUSD will test 1217-1219 again before heading back up.
From there, depending how it reacts to resistance, maybe a Head and Shoulders or if we're lucky, a breakout.
Inverse Head and Shoulders on GDXJJust like in March. History repeating itself while gold gets ready for another push up.
In JDST for now, switching to JNUG if this plays out.
Jnug to Gold "French Election weekend"So I am having a hard time reading the Jnug chart right now. Aside from the extremely oversold RSI, the positive action today for Jnug, despite weakness in gold, suggests a pop may have begun today. But I thought maybe the regular gold chart might help me get a couple of ideas about Jnug price action in the short term. I am assuming that we are going to get a bounce from the French elections this weekend. So I threw up a Fib measurement to get an idea. With Macron most likely winning the election the bounce should be small. I am targeting the 50% Fib retracement into the 1250's range. There is also a ton of resistance and moving averages in this area. The only thing that I think could get gold to break through at this point would be a La Pen victory. If she were to win, then I would think that gold would retest the long term downtrend line that we have not been able to break, somewhere in the 1280's. But I think the 1250's is more reasonable. That being said, the Jnug bounce should also be somewhat short lived as well. I am at least thinking we can fill the next couple of gaps aside from the one we are at right now. So I am at least targeting the $22.15 spot which would also possibly coincide with the dropping 50 DMA. That would equal a 62% positive move for Jnug from the recent lows. To reach the upper edge of the channel seems to be too far away with a short term pop in gold. I just don't quite see it right now. But once gold itself starts to really drop into its ICL, Jnug will probably also drop hard right back down to the single digits. Since I am anticipating that gold will drop until the 2nd week of Jnue with a possible rate hike, I am saying that gold will drop to the bottom of that blue wedge at around the 1163 - 1170 range. We should get a much better bounce at that time but then after that, I predict the real bad bloodbath will begin until the winter of next year.
I think Ill put up the GDXJ and Jnug charts next to assist.
GOLD, XAUUSD going long ideaSo lets look at XAUUSD. Gold appears to be in another AB=CD pattern. I overlayed the previous pattern on top of the current pattern and "voila" looks similar. The amount of time to the bottom previous is a little shorter than we are now. I suspect GOLD is near or very near the bottom. The cycle is on day 37. Gold has been lasting 33 days, so its extended. Look for higher prices from here, but don't fall in love with the trade. It may be short lived as this is NOT the ICL.
Daily Gold .618 at 1233; retrace or continue to fall?All is on chart. Looking for a candle to close in or out of channel, and see what price action does here at .618.
Will use this to determine direction while scalping/trading lower time frames.
Use care, be safe.
Possible Gartley formation in GDXJWatching a possible Gartley formation with completion at 30.72. PTs and SL are in the chart.
Jnug to Gold "Possible more downside ahead"With the break of the black trend line yesterday, that suggest that there is much more downside ahead for Jnug. I did not think this drop was coming so soon. I was thinking in a month or two. So I was wrong. But now it appears that we are in a downward channel. And I have a feeling we are going to fill at least the next gap if not the December low gap. The 50 DMA crossed the 100 DMA a week earlier than I was predicting which led to a big sell off. Especially once that trend line was broken. Once the trend line was broken, all the stops that were set just below it were triggered and that led to a very big sell off. The next set of stops may be around the $4.20 mark. But we could get a small bounce to retest that trend line that we broke yesterday. Not to mention, gold is starting it trek down to its ICL. That will bring this down more IMO. We should get a little bounce soon but nothing too big. Sell off are called bloodbaths for a reason. IT can be a brutal market and just when you think you are on top of everything, it throws you a curve ball a little early. That is why you must have stops in place. I am out of Jnug for now until I see it reach a strong support area.
Gold healthy consolidation so far gold weekly had very healthy and much due consolidation on weekly chart last two weeks. next week will determine the trend.
JNUG can go either wayThis is JNUG recently on the 15 minute. The blue lines are the current trend it has followed for a couple days. I have little faith in this trend. When my red SMA line turns green, it might be worth jumping in on a day trade, but this has been one of the hardest funds for me to find trends. Lot's of games get played with this ticker symbol.
Here is the one minute with the current trend. I'm going to wait for a good entry.
Junior Gold Miners correlation with CADUSDHi,
The Junior Gold Miners Index (and the funds tracking it - GDXJ, JNUG) consists in 70% of Canadian Miners. Therefore, it is strongly correlated to the CADUSD.
Thanks
I think gold may have bottomed out JNUGI think, but am not 100% sure, that gold may have hit bottom and will be headed up. NASDAQ:GOLD
