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Jnugshort

JNUG likely to fall if it closes at 8.47 or belowThe Junior Gold Miner's ETF performs better on average when it closes above the previous day's Hull Moving Average than when it closes below. This relationship is particularly strong in the months of June and December, historically JNUG's strongest months. (Anticipators of gold's historic June strength likely drove gold's bull run on May 30-31.) Today JNUG crossed below its previous day's Hull (8.475), and I give it better than even odds of closing below that level. If it does close at 8.47 or lower, look for a significant drop in the next few trading days. If not, then JNUG may move higher. The JNUG gold miners ETF reacts to the price of gold (XAUUSD), which reacts primarily to the US dollar. The dollar's next moves will be determined by expectations of a Fed rate cut. If investors remain bullish on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut within the next year, expect both gold and JNUG to break out higher. If expectation of a Fed rate cut turns negative (as it seems to be doing), expect the dollar to return to strength and XAUUSD and JNUG to break out downward. With Bullard the only Fed member signaling a rate cut and others saying a rate cut isn't warranted yet, I'd put 60:40 odds on a strong move downward in the next week before upswing on safe haven demand near the end of the month. If you'd like to short JNUG, you can use the JDST ETF. This is just an idea, not trading advice.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith