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Continuous Jobless Claims Continues to IncreaseU.S. Continuous Jobless Claims Rep: 1,895 🚨 20k HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨 Exp: 1,875K Prev: 1,865k (revised down from 1,871k) 20,000 higher continuous claims than expected. This is keeping the long term trend rising and remains one of thee most concerning charts out there. Chart Trend Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.895m (593k+). This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that have become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer. Recession Watch For the last 6 Recessions the 2.86m level was surpassed confirming or coinciding with recession initiation (see red dashed line). This is noted as the “Last 6 Recessions Threshold” on the chart. This is a level that was surpassed on confirmation of recession commencement (recessions are in red). The blue levels are pre-recession increases which are the warnings we are trying to interpret to get a lead. The above chart above has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased the pre recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and close to max levels for an advance recession warning. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCJC
by PukaCharts
1
U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims (Updated Chart & Release)U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims Rep: 1,806k ✅Lower Than Expected ✅ Exp: 1,845k Prev: 1,832k (revised down from 1,834) Whilst the short term lower than expected continuous jobless claims are welcomed the long term trend is one of thee most concerning charts out there. Chart Trend Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.806m (500k+). This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer. Recession Watch The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and close to max levels for an advance recession warning. What are Initial and Continuous claims? Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst Continued Jobless Claims accounts for people who continued to seek their unemployment benefit into week 2 and subsequent weeks. Next up, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 💪🏻
ECONOMICS:USCJC
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 9~ Initial Jobless Claims MACRO MONDAY 9 Initial Jobless Claims Historical Analysis and Important upcoming levels Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. "Initial claims" refers to the government report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time following job loss First-time jobless claims can be a useful leading indicator because elevated numbers tend to lead to further economic weakness, and to decline ahead of a recovery Initial claims show the recent layoffs trend and does not a full picture of the labor market however it can provide more frequent data points indicating the trend in layoffs based on the recent decisions of U.S. employers. The layoffs trend can be particularly telling at economic turning points. With that in mind lets look at the chart and its historic patterns. The Chart The chart looks complicated but is incredibly simple and can be summarised as follows. - Recessions are in red - Increases to Initial Jobless Claims prior to recessions are in blue - It is clear that prior to recessions Jobless Claims typically increase but for how long and by what amount? - The min/max increase in claims prior to recession is between 35k - 127k - The min/max timeframe of increasing claims prior to recession is 7 - 23 months - The average of the above is a 71k claims increase over a 14 month period. - At present we are below that average at 49k increase over 11 months @ 230,000 claims. - I have set out levels on the chart for us to monitor going forward in line with the min and max claims amounts and timelines as above. We can monitor these levels on trading view going forward just by pressing play and seeing if we are nearing or hitting the indicative levels. - Once we reach the average increase amount at 252k or the average timeline of 14 months in Nov 2023, we are entering into higher risk recession territory. Currently, the max increase in claims prior to recession is projected to be at the level of 308,000 (based on historic claims) and the max timeframe is out to Aug 2024 (based on historic timeframes) thus indicating that between Nov 2023 and Aug 2024, subject to continued increasing initial claims (above the average level of 252,000) it is probable that there will be a recession within this time window (Not guaranteed). If initial claims fall below their recent low of 200,000 I believe this might invalidate the possibility of a recession or at least have a significant lagging effect on time horizon. At present this outcome seems unlikely but anything is possible and we can monitor this on an ongoing basis. The current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to all of the above recessions however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2). September will be the 6th month of that 6 – 22 month window and thus we are closing in on dangerous territory very fast. From reviewing initial jobless claims we can see how from Nov 2023 we are stepping into a higher risk zone on this chart also (subject to continued higher increases in claims). Should we have claims higher than the average of 252,000 we will be confirming another step towards a higher risk of a recession. Factoring in yield curve inversion and the initial jobless claims we could consider the months of Sept-Oct 2023 as Risk level 1 (yield curve inversion time window opens) and Nov-Dec 2023 as stepping into a higher Risk Level 2 (Jobless claims average timeframe hit). Should the yield curve continue to move up towards being un-inverted and should Jobless Claims increase then Jan 2024 forward could be considered a higher Risk level 3. Adding to the above concerns is that M2 Money supply is still reducing (Macro Monday 8) and Global Net Liquidity is continuing to reduce (Macro Monday 4) as the S&P 500 is hitting a major resistance zone when accounting for M2 money supply (Macro Monday 8). At present it is clear that liquidity is reducing both globally and in the US. Currently fiscal stimulus appears to be filling the gaps and may be causing additional lagging effects to the changes we have seen imposed by Federal Reserve (balance sheet reduction and increased interest rates). Keep in mind that the Fed is also targeting higher unemployment to help quell the effects of inflation thus adding to the relevance of the Initial Jobless Claims numbers. Continued jobless claims are another metric that is not covered here today. Continued Jobless Claims accounts for the continuation of claims over a time period, thus indicating that those workers who made the first “Initial claims” have remained unemployed thereafter and have not managed to get new work. We might cover this in a future Macro Monday. Let me know if you want it sooner than later? We need all the help we can find in managing risk going forward and I hope all these charts can help you with that. We can monitor all these charts on my trading view just by pressing play and seeing where things are going. Regardless ill be providing updates along the way. Be safe out there PUKA
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ECONOMICS:USIJC
by PukaCharts
37
Why central bank policy is terrible but you have to deal with itIt’s just like in a comedy movie. And to me it looks like that the people have absolutely no idea about the monetary policy and how they handle it. So yes we have a crisis right now and that is something that also our big central banks from the US and Europe already have recognized. But the effectiveness of their tools to support the economy is pretty bad. Why is that so ? Well if we look a little bit deeper into our current crisis which has appeared by the consequences of the corona virus we can see that we have to deal with a double shock from the supply and demand site. This is something we haven’t seen in the last 100 years in the market and so it is a new phenomenon for all people who participate in the markets. But the central bank policy is pretty easy to understand: We print more money and increase the money supply to keep our market liquid. Moreover we put interest rates near zero and start quantitative easing to support the bond market which also leads to more money supply in the stock market. But does that really work ? As I menaced before we have a supply and demand shock that means people are fearful to make any new investments one the one site and on the other site these people can’t also go to work to earn some money and pay the bills. So a pretty dramatic situation like we have it never seen before. What really helps are not the actions by the FED or the ECB. In my view it’s about the activities made by the federal government. Many companies are already under water and don’t know how to pay the bills and if they’re able to recover from this hick any time soon. What these companies really need are direct payments and tax suspensions by the government. The government has to give these companies some kind of stability right now and this could also lead to more stability in the financial markets. The central banks already gave the market the signal that they will do everything that is possible to keep the markets liquid. And thats pretty much everything that they can do right now. The real challenge will face the governments of this world if they have to accomplish the way from crisis to recovery in aspect of the worldwide economy. We see pretty bad numbers at the moment especially the job numbers in the US. Time for the markets to react on it in a proper way.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by macrolukas
SPY - Quants based Long!Please refer my article below. I had shared some quants on how markets have behaved in the past in trading sessions before and after Jobless claims data being published Below are pointer and the feedback on the performance so far! 1.75% of the time ( 9 out of 12 times), SPY has given an average return of 0.7% 1 week prior to Jobless Claims data announcement date. If you bought on close of 7th Nov 2019 @ 308 , then till 14th Nov close 309.58, you would have made a positive return of 0.51% and held till close of 18th Nov, you would have a positive return of 1.24% 2. 5 out of 5 times in the past 3 years you would make positive returns (average of 0.9%) if you were to buy 2 days after the event date. If you were to buy on close of 15th Nov, held till end of day 18th, so far made about 0.18% 3. If you were to buy 1 week after the event, then 73% of the times (8 out of 11 times) you would make an average return of about 0.5% Now, this we will review on 21st November close f day to initiate the observation and see how it plays off If you see, if you had taken any of the first 2 trades so far, quant would have helped in the probabilistic trades. If you like what you see, please share a thumbs up and comments in the section below Cheers
AMEX:SPYLong
by LoveForCharts
Upside potential for Rusell 2000 Index from Past PerformanceRecovery in U.S. show up slower than expecting, seeing from Jobless Claim report increased to 276,000 against analysis forecast median of 263,250 jobs which is a greater numbers than Feb 2016 report. However the incremental is still below 300,000 which is an acceptable rate. Counting from Jackson Hole Fed's meeting last week statement was given clear of timeline of interest rate increase in year 2017 which will be monitored every quarter and rate holding in Apr to June 2016 sending U.S. dollar index down towards end of statement. This resulting of sending stock market upwards DJIA approaching last height where it went before collapsing last round of trading. NASDAQ index has been booming upwards slope as well leaving where Biotech index laggard. The Russell 2000 Index follows the trend if you look at the graph presenting from year 2000 to year 2016 highest record, at the moment of trading today vs last height giving 16.38% upside for trading area but why Russell 2000 index would recovery better than DJIA or those big caps. It is because the small caps index has more volatility and potential of company growth better than big caps. The company are new to the market seeing high potential of expanding market share and it normally not reacting plunged from market sentiment.
ILong
by ausvin