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US Unemployed to Employed as Indicator of Job Market HealthIn this chart, we use the following symbols: ECONOMICS:USNFP , FRED:UNEMPLOY ECONOMICS:USNFP represents the number of jobs created in a month. FRED:UNEMPLOY represents the number of unemployed individuals for a month. Assuming exactly 1 payroll per person , the ratio 100 * ECONOMICS:USNFP / ( FRED:UNEMPLOY + ECONOMICS:USNFP ) estimates the percentage of previously unemployed individuals who transitioned to employment in the month. If enough jobs are created, the current FRED:UNEMPLOY should equal the previous month's FRED:UNEMPLOY minus ECONOMICS:USNFP , as the jobs created should correspond to the unemployed who found work. When sufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed decreases, and the ratio increases. A "healthy" value for this ratio is around 2.5% , indicating that approximately 2.5% of unemployed individuals transition to employment each month . Conversely, if insufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed rises, and the ratio decreases. Ratios around 0% or negative values are usually observed during or before recessions, indicating an unhealthy job market . For last two consecutive months, the ratio has been 0.17% , suggesting an unhealthy job market . Similar patterns were observed before the DotCom and GFC recessions. If this trend continues for several months, it strongly suggests that the US is either on the verge of or already in a recession. Historically, when the 30-week SMA crosses below the 50-week SMA, it signals a recession. This signal was triggered in June '24.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by eugene_sea
2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.) After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite. Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart. As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year. Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness. Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
ECONOMICS:USEC
by eugene_sea
THE KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Simple one for this NFP as we’re going to be more of the observer rather than the trader unless again, we get those extreme levels that we want. Key level here is 2670 which was our bias level earlier in the week, that is also now a resistance being attempting to break open. For that reason, we will wait to see if it breaks and look higher at the levels of 2675 and then step by step upwards following the path. We’ll be looking at the extreme level of 2710-20 for the exhaustion and the RIP to attempt the short trade. On the flip, downside risk on the break of 2650 key level should take us in to the order region 2630-35 where we may get a slight reaction in price, but potentially only for the scalp. Breaking this level opens the door and we won’t be looking to long again until we target 2600-10. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone, The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
FRED:UNRATE
by justaturboman44
FOMC & 800K Fewer Jobs Dragging on Dollar The dollar is under pressure, with persistent selling pressure driving it to new yearly lows across several currencies, including the pound. A recent revision of jobs data revealed that U.S. job growth was significantly weaker than initially reported, with 818,000 fewer jobs added (for the year ending March 2024). This huge downward adjustment, the largest since 2009, indicates that the labor market cooled more rapidly than previously thought. These revised job figures could likely intensify concerns that the Federal Reserve has been too slow in lowering interest rates. At its July meeting, Federal Reserve officials considered the possibility of a rate cut but opted to hold off, hinting at a move in September. Markets are now pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency measures taken during the early days of the Covid crisis. Regarding the labor market, “many” officials noted that “reported payroll gains might be overstated,” which means that the Federal Reserve might be ahead of the rest of us, and exactly where it wants to be regarding timing the rate cuts.
by BlackBull_Markets
Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic? Understanding the Economic Data Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession. In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time. Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern. Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around. With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves. Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets. Understanding the Market Trends While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound. The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts. The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell. The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk. This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy. Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation. Concluding Thoughts While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
AMEX:SPY
by ingeforberg
THE KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Please note, this NFP looks like it’s going to slip a lot of traders up, so please be careful if you’re going to trade it, otherwise, like us, stay out of the market and come back to it on Monday where we will find better, cleaner opportunities. We’ve done well in Camelot, we’re not going to risk anything on this NFP, not even a 0.01lot. So, we have an early session move downside into the support region 2330-35 with extension into the 2325 price point, which if held here could give us bounce up into the order region above 2345-50 which is where ideally we will want to see the price pre-event. We’ve plotted the extreme levels on the chart and the potential move, the extreme support level sitting at 2305-10 which, if they do take the price down into, we feel the RIP upside will come from to at least the 2330 price point. We would say below the 2355-60 region we’re looking lower, and that price point will need to hold for us to see a continuation of the move. The structure needs to form however! On the flip, breaking above the 2355 region we could see this attempt the 2400-2405 price point before we even think about shorting it. It’s one or the other for us, it either comes down into extreme level and we’ll look for a set up after the event, or, it goes up into extreme level and we’ll look for a set up. In the middle, we’re not interested in trying to catch the moves today. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
9
Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP It's US jobs week. Which gives us at least three trading opportunities, scattered out nicely over the whole week. First is the JOLTs Job Openings report. Second is the ADP Employment Change report. Finally, we have the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Let's look at what happened last month: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs. Economists forecast by TradingEconomics had estimated 240,000 jobs. Another huge miss in the NFP report this month could weaken the dollar. The market seems poised to interpret any indication as a signal that the Federal Reserve might cut rates sooner than anticipated. And even with a weaker-than-expected NFP, the market might just be looking at the headline. JPMorgan Chase highlighted during last month's report that "other employment indicators suggest there is no imminent weakening in the labor market." Additionally, these figures are preliminary and often revised in subsequent weeks. For instance, March’s nonfarm payroll gains were revised up to 315,000 from 300,000.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials. Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations. Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs. Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
by BlackBull_Markets
THE KOG REPORT - NFPThe KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Quick on for this event, not really looking to trade it after the week we've had and it's probably wise others who have followed us this week don't either. Keep your money in your account! We're sharing the levels instead that we feel they will want to target, and if they reject where traders may get the opportunity to long or short the market. Upside levels - 2330-35 above that in extension of the move 2340-44, price needs to stay below otherwise we go higher. Downside levels - 2250-55, price attempts this level an opportunity to long may be available. Breaking the level will give us the extension of the move 2230-35 before any RIPs. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
THE KOG REPORT - NFP 08/03/24 The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For today’s NFP we’re going to keep the chart and idea clean and only look for extreme levels. Our daily bias and weekly bias targets are complete, yesterday we posted a higher level for our team and that was also completed this morning. So now, we have the following levels in mind: Resistance levels: 2173-5 and above that 2180-85. These levels we feel if price attacks could give us a reaction in price if rejected and not broken. For that reason, a test on the level is potentially available but we wouldn’t really want to long up into these levels unless we get a very deep pullback! Support levels: 2150-47 unless broken can take us up into those levels before a reaction, however, with the volume that enters the markets, it can make this a difficult trade. Hence, the levels below 2140-44 can then bring us back into the order region to then start a small range. Below that have 2130, which if attacked is our ideal level for a tap and bounce, but only for the scalp. Price breaks above the higher resistance, we're not interested and will come back next week. We’re very likely not going to be trading this event, rather watching and letting the price settle before we decide on our move. It can be volatile and extreme and we need you to understand, if they break above that 2085 level they’re going to complete the structure without any pullbacks. New traders and those less experienced, please stay out of the markets, money in your account is a position in the markets! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
MACRO MONDAY 11~ Cont. Jobless Claims MACRO MONDAY 11 Continued Jobless Claims ECONOMICS:USCJC Continued Jobless Claims are the continued unemployment benefits claimed by workers who made their first “Initial claim” and remained unemployed in the weeks that followed. In other words, Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst Continued Jobless Claims accounts for people who continued to seek their unemployment benefit into week 2 and subsequent weeks. In order to be classified as a continuing claim, an unemployed individual must be unemployed for at least one week after filing an initial claim. They will be removed from the metric when they return to work. Whilst continuous claims do provide an aggregate of accumulating unemployment numbers over time, initial claims are reported sooner and considered more important to financial markets. Regardless there is a clear historic pattern on the Continued Claims Chart that demonstrates that continued jobless claims increase prior to recessions, and at present we are reaching higher than historical averages that have preceded recessions. The Chart The chart can be summarized as follows: - Recessions are in red - Increases in Continuous Jobless Claims prior to recessions are in blue - It is clear that prior to recessions Continuous Jobless Claims typically increase but for how long and by what amount? - The min/max increase in claims prior to recession is between 218k - 614k - The min/max timeframe of increasing claims prior to recession is 6 – 21 months - The average of the above is a 424k claim increase over a 11 month period. - At present we are now at the avg. 11 months time period and sit at an increase of 380k, however we exceeded 520k in continuous claims increases in Apr 2023. This obviously means since April 2023 continuous claims have reduced however the reduction is marginal against the larger move. - I have set out levels on the chart for us to monitor going forward in line with the min and max claims amounts and timelines as above. We can monitor these levels on trading view going forward just by pressing play and seeing if we are nearing or hitting the indicative levels. - If we reach the average increase amount at >424k AGAIN we are entering into higher risk of recession territory. We are already in month 11 of increases to continuous claims which is the average timeframe prior to a recession commencing. To be exact it is approx. 11.5 months therefore the 2ndhalf of the month of September is where we step into a higher risk level. Currently, the max increase in claims prior to recession is projected to be at a level of 1.928 million (based on historic claims) and the max timeframe is out to Jun 2024 (based on historic timeframes) thus indicating that between Aug 2023 and Jun 2024, subject to ongoing increasing continuous claims (holding above the average level of 1.734 million) it is probable that there will be a recession within this 11 month time window (Not guaranteed). If continuous claims fall below their minimum historic pre-recession level of 1.51 million I believe this might invalidate the possibility of a recession or at least have a significant lagging effect on time horizon. At present this outcome seems unlikely but anything is possible and we can monitor this on an ongoing basis. We now have a number of charts demonstrating that from Sept 2023 to Mar/Apr 2024 we have a significantly increased probability of recession. These charts were shared just a few days ago if want to have a look. These charts are as follows: 1. The current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to all of the recessions outlined on the below chart however it provided us with a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level. Sept 2023 is the 6th month of that 6 – 22 month window. The 22nd month is Jan 2025. The average time before a recession after the yield curve starts to turn up is 13 months or April 2024. - Based on this chart it is clear that there is substantially increased recession risk between Sept 2023 – April 2024. 2. Interest Rate Hike & S&P500 chart (Macro Monday 8). In the event that the Federal Reserve is pausing rates from Sept 2023, historic timelines of major hike cycles suggest a 7 month pause like in 2000 or a 16 month pause in line with 2007 (an avg. of both is c.11 months). For reference COVID-19’s rate pause was for 6 months. - 6 months from now would be March 2024 and 16 months from now would be Nov 2024. The average of both Jun 2024. - Based on this chart it is clear again that there is substantially increased recession risk between Sept 2023 – March 2024 of recession, increasing again thereafter from May onwards. 3. Initial Jobless Claims are currently increasing and are reaching pre-recessionary levels. If initial jobless claims surpasses its historic pre-recession averages of 252,000 of increased claims and if claims continue to increase past Nov 2023, this suggests we are entering into a much higher risk of recession. - Whilst this chart is not indicating the Sept 2023 to Mar/Apr 2024 time window as the two charts above are, it may present a date within that window of time from Nov 2023 forward (subject to continued increases). 4. Today’s chart Continuing Jobless Claims suggests that we have broken past both the increase in claims average of 424k (to 1.734 mln) and we are into month 11 which is the average timeframe of increases prior to recession commencement. - Todays chart is suggesting we are already in a recession or have just started into one. Another breach back above the 1.734 mln level (average level) would be a good confirmation signal that the risk of recession remains on the table. With this in mind it is important to recognize that on average official declaration of recession can be declared up to 8 months after a recession has started, so we should be on the look out for indications of a recession starting (without the official declaration). Today’s chart and the above charts suggest the following: 1. Significantly increased risk of recession from the 2nd half of September 2023: - 2/10 year Treasury Spread 6 – 22 month recession risk window opens from Sept 2023. - Average timeframe of increases in continuous jobless claims prior to recession is from the 2nd week in September. - The last time the Federal Reserve paused interest rates, the COVID-19 crash occurred 6 months later. 6 months from a Sept 2023 pause would be March 2024. 2. The Recession Risk increase higher from Nov 2023 - Average timeframe of increases in Initial Jobless Claims prior to recession is hit. Adding to the above concerns is that M2 Money supply is still reducing (Macro Monday 8) and Global Net Liquidity is continuing to reduce (Macro Monday 4) as the S&P 500 is hitting a major resistance zone when accounting for M2 money supply (Macro Monday 8). At present it is clear that liquidity is reducing both globally and in the US. Currently fiscal stimulus appears to be filling the gaps and may be causing additional lagging effects to the changes we have seen imposed by Federal Reserve (balance sheet reduction and increased interest rates). Keep in mind that the Fed is also targeting higher unemployment to help quell the effects of inflation thus adding to the relevance of the Initial Jobless Claims and continuous jobless claims numbers. We can monitor these charts on my trading view just by pressing play and seeing where things are going. Regardless ill be providing updates along the way of claims releases and other important data. Be safe out there as we enter into a high risk zone (no guarantees) PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCJC
by PukaCharts
2
THE KOG REPORT - NFP:KOG REPORT – NFP: This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For todays report we’re going to use the same levels as the KOG Report published on Sunday but we’re going to use the hourly chart for our projections and illustrations of the potential movement to come. We can see so far this year, although only a few days in, we’re seeing quite a move to the downside on the metals so this NFP entails caution. We have our key level support here at 2030-35 order region as shown on the KOG Report which has given a temporary bounce. Below that we have 2025-7 which, if we see an extension of the move and is held, we feel will lead the price to target the higher order region 2050-55 and above that 2062-5 where we will then need to assess the price action and potentially look for a short back down to break the 2035 level. On the flip, if they take the price upside, which we’re thinking will happen, then 2050-55 and above that 2060-62 are possible targets for the longs with extension into the 2075-80 region where we may see a reaction in price. Going to keep is short this time, we’re too early in the year to even think about long term positions and would rather wait for next week to resume normal business. Please take this report as a guide only. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
We are not in a recessionary bear market yet....This analysis overlays US Recessions over CBOE:SPX on the top pane. Bottom pane is a technique shared by famous trader , Larry William - recently presented at a NAAIM Conference. The technique looks at US job market as % of population. You can find more on Sentimentrader. Larger declines in stock market are usually accompanied by a recession. There is clearly a softening of the labor market but hanging above the recession territory. Unless we dip into a recession and Oct 2022 lows on SPX holds - we are not in a recessionary bear market.
FRED:EMRATIOLong
by RayonMarkets
Fools Rushing In or Angels' Crystal Ball? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 10/11 Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back (per Walmart's CEO)...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased last week. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell. However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias yesterday, Tue. 10/10, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4401, 4390, 4381, 4359, or 4321 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4397, 4376, 4356, 4332, or 4315 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4387, and explicit short exits on a break above 4335. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom