Johndeere
John Deere Restructuring: Layoffs in US, Production Shift to MexJohn Deere to lay off 600 workers in Illinois and Iowa as manufacturing of specific equipment moves to Mexico by 2026. Lower crop prices and declining demand are driving the restructuring, impacting Deere's financials (Q2 net income down from prior year). The company is creating new jobs with a new warehouse in Indiana.
Key points for traders:
Short-term pain: Layoffs negatively impact affected communities.
Long-term strategy: Move aims to reduce costs and improve efficiency.
Future outlook: John Deere's ability to innovate will be crucial in a changing market.
This event may be relevant to investors in manufacturing, agriculture, and John Deere (DE) stock.
John Deere can move up 20% from current levelsThe latest impulse in this American agricultural machinery and heavy equipment manufacturer was spotted beginning in May 2023 and got over in July 2023.This impulse is marked wave i on chart.
Between late July and late Oct. the stock made a very deep 78.6% retracement of the advance (wave i).
The corrective counts now seems to be have come to an end in this stock as also it is slowly emerging out of the falling wedge pattern.
Wave iii target is projected around $460-475 zone(around 20% from CMP) and previous wave i high was at 450. Both these levels would be crucial levels towards which the stock will start marching going forward.
On the downside the swing lows of 358.8 and 363.01 are crucial supports for the stock.
Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only.
DE 123 PatternHere is a 1-2-3 Pattern better known as a 3 Bar Play accompanied by a pennant pattern on the 5m (LTF). The CVol (Closing Volume) finished extremely bullish providing supporting confluence for the overall context of my bullish bias. Will be looking to ride up to next level as long as price holds above the green "Calls" level.
DE bull flagSimple bull flag within an uptrend on DE. If you look at the previous consolidation before the impulse move there is a similar pattern which you can expect a similar reaction BUT nothing is ever 100%. Trim majority at high leave runners after. % SL or last 10m candle before breakout candle.
Trouble Ahead For DeereTechnicals: This is not at all a perfect short setup solely off of the technicals. With that in mind, some clear signs of weakness can be seen in DE's weekly chart. One such sign was the new lower low formed at around 285 in July, which broke DE from its previous trading range of around 310-400 a share. Deere's recent bull rally since July's new low I find to be relatively weak due to lower volume. MACD (momentum) on the weekly has sustained a bullish cross. Monthly MACD is still positive yet a bearish cross has occurred. While the MACD on the daily timeframe is signaling a relatively strong uptick in momentum on the shorter timeframe. Despite the bullish momentum on the daily, the longer-term momentum indicators are signaling that there will be a sustained period of underperformance ahead for DE.
Fundamentals: Earnings for DE are on the 18th. P/B ratio of roughly 6. P/S of around 2.5. Debt to assets of 2.6. These all appear to me a bit weak. That being said, Deere's profit margins have expanded quite nicely over the last couple of years. I am not very excited about their margin growth, as I see global inflationary pressures providing headwinds for Deere's intermediate-term profitability. Overall, DE is an overvalued stock with little potential for further upside gains in my opinion (especially with the global macro picture steadily deteriorating).
Prediction: I do believe the short-term momentum will carry DE up to the 378.32 resistance, likely before earnings are announced on the 18th. Earnings will be a major risk event for DE traders. Should earnings come in higher than expected DE could easily rally above 378.32 and into 398.36 territory, possibly even higher (just look at WMT and HD's price action after their beats earlier today). If Deere comes out with disappointing earnings and/or worrisome guidance we should see a sharp sell-off, ultimately causing a move that allows for a retest of support zones in the 316.71 to 277.09. Earnings risk is something I generally avoid when trading, but the risk to reward for adding a DE short position at the moment almost looks too attractive to pass up. With earnings coming in so soon, it is hard to give a decisive prediction. That said, I will fall back on my underlying thesis, that Deere is overvalued and is facing technical and economic headwinds. I expect to see serious volatility in DE trading over the coming weeks, which eventually will lead DE back down to the 285 low, possibly even grinding into new lows testing support of 236.59.
As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
Deere in HeadlightsOn the monthly, weekly, and daily, DE does not look good. It may seem like a Bull pennant but I believe this is a long distribution. The newest weekly close is a rejection of the top trendline. I expect it to retest the bottom of the trendline and, if the overall market is doing poorly, then DE will fail to bottom out and fall off a cliff. Price action is the biggest determinant here. The RSI, MACD, and moving averages do not suggest a bullish breakout but are more lukewarm in their current status. The newest weekly candle closing bearish is, for me, a signal that DE will now fall.
DE to $200 possibly and here is whyLooking at the chart there is significant upside for the production equipment companies. Farms still have to produce product and consumer good prices have risen dramatically over the past few months. Only concern is the commercial food industry Sysco didn't report all that well and that is where a lot of the food supply goes to. Short term target is still $200 based on charts.
$DE #John Deere ShortCurrently in a long put debit spread. Looking to tag bottom of bollinger.
With the current trade war, and farmers being hammered in the midwest, we have technical analysis supporting the bearish macro narrative. Tough year on farmers, isn't the year they are going to be making investments in new big AG equipment.
Trading it short while also COLLECTING time premium. So there is no option decay - you actually get a small gain because of this.
Deere John is a breakout candidate$DE
If you look at the monthly chart John Deere could test that All-time high it bounced off of in 2011 (and big round number) at $99.80
Zooming in on the weekly also shows a close above $93 is out of the resistance line in the top of the monthly pennant I drew.
Buy the stock now or on a Friday close above $93
or
Delta 40, JAN16 97.5 Call is a cheaper way of getting long it was only at 3.50 this morning. If DE takes longer than 8 months to test the all-time high then that is the only con to buying calls.
The weekly chart has the ATR trail stop strategy indicator** that I like to use on trending stocks. The ATR trail stop is the yellow dot trailing below today's candle (blue dot if trending lower). A close below this level is when I am stopped out. I personally have been trading the ATRPeriod value at 10 with the ATRmultiplier value at 2.
That said, today the stop would be below $89 but know that this value is adjusted at every closing price.
**Big ups to Sylvain Vervoort (or user HPotter on here) for writing this and publicly posting the script to get this strategy on charts.