Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Inside an Optimal Buying Zone!Hi,
The market has made some pretty good moves up and the current slight correction is bringing prices back to technically good levels and Johnson & Johnson is one of them.
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1886 that develops medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods.
Technically, it has been quite difficult to get it (when there has been such a clear and strong trend, you don't have to be smart to understand that the fundamentals are fine with JNJ), because there have not been such sharp reversals, from which to find a support level and etc, but as you can see from the picture, it has not been impossible. Namely, the price of JNJ has respected a trendline for almost 10 years.
The trend line is drawn from the closing prices (you can do it easily on the line chart) to eliminate the noise and the wicks that the various waves of panic have brought. JNJ has always been bought up very quickly and the growth has been steady.
Also, the price has respected the 50-month moving average (50EMA) almost flawlessly, and at the moment the trend line and the EMA50 form a single punch and are together in one price zone.
Technical criteria for a significant level of support:
1. Trendline, clearly proven in the long term.
2. The Monthly EMA50 has held nicely.
3. The resistance level that worked for three years in 2017-2020, around $150, will start working as a support level.
4. Short-term channel projection
5. Short-term equal waves from the top: AB=CD
The optimal entry point should stay between $147-$160.
Good luck!
Johnson
JOHNSON & JOHNSON Can reach $190 by FebruaryJohnson & Johnson (JNJ) has been trading within a long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern since the January 26 2021 High. The pattern has been having very structured Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
At the moment the stock is on a bullish leg, after rebounding exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on November 11 and is also above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1W MACD is on a Bullish Cross and the 1W RSI rebounded off a Lower Lows (Double) Bottom formation. The exact same sequence was last seem early this year on January. After one last pull-back, the stock then rallied to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone.
The Higher Highs seem to be following the 1.236 - 1.5 - 1.786 Fibonacci sequence and so do the Lows (0.236 - 0.5 - 0.786). The 1.786 Fib extension is a little over $190.00 and that is our current long target on JNJ.
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JOHNSON & JOHNSON: DETAILED FUNDAMENTAL+FIBO ANALISY|LONG🔔Johnson & Johnson has been a profitable business to invest in for years. But its legal problems have grown steadily--the company has faced tens of thousands of lawsuits over talc alone.
And while so far the health care giant has managed to cope with its legal costs and remain profitable, that may not be the case in the future.
In addition, all these negative publications are not good for the Johnson & Johnson brand. The constant barrage of recalls and lawsuits could cause real, long-term damage. Can we still invest in this business, or have Johnson & Johnson's legal problems made this company a stock to be avoided at all costs?
Johnson & Johnson has been involved in numerous lawsuits in recent years. Most recently, earlier this month, the company announced a voluntary recall of certain Neutrogena and Aveeno sunscreens. Although benzene, a known carcinogen, is not in their composition, it was found in product testing. Johnson
& Johnson is recalling the products "for reasons of caution."
In addition, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a second warning regarding Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine. It states that the vaccine may increase a person's risk of developing a neurological disorder called Guillain-Barré syndrome. The agency had also previously issued a warning that the vaccine increases the risk of blood clots. (The FDA also issued warnings for Pfizer and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines, saying they increase the risk of heart inflammation.)
These cases have not caused problems with Johnson & Johnson's financial performance - yet.
In 2020 and 2019, Johnson & Johnson's legal expenses totaled more than $5 billion. However, in each of those years, the company's net income was about $15 billion. And as a percentage of revenue, the company made an 18 percent profit - only slightly less than the 19 percent net income it achieved in 2018. From a purely financial standpoint, the company has yet to feel much of an impact on its bottom line. When Johnson & Johnson released its latest quarterly results on July 21, its earnings for the period ending April 4 looked higher than ever, at more than $6 billion.
But as problems mount, legal costs could rise sharply in the coming years. And rumor has it that the company is looking ahead to potentially limit some of that liability. According to a Reuters report, Johnson & Johnson is considering writing off liabilities related to baby powder talcum powder to a new business and then putting that business under bankruptcy protection. The move would help limit the company's legal liabilities related to the issue.
Johnson & Johnson is an incredibly profitable company, and its stock is the king of dividends you can count on for the foreseeable future - provided, of course, that legal bills don't begin to undermine the company's ability to meet those obligations. At present, that doesn't seem to be a problem.
However, investors should be careful not to rely solely on past performance or on the company's ability to weather the storm. The more problems become known, the more likely the company is to suffer financial losses in one form or another. We have no way of knowing whether a particular straw will be found that will break the camel's back, and it certainly seems unlikely now that Johnson & Johnson will not survive these problems, given its enormous size. But mere survival will not make this company a great investment. There are also intangibles to consider, such as the impact of bad headlines on the company's future and whether it might cause consumers to switch to competing brands. It, combined with potentially rising litigation costs, creates some long-term risk that investors shouldn't just ignore. And if a company is trying to dodge responsibility to consumers who have developed serious health problems related to talcum powder, it could alienate potential investors from an ethical standpoint.
While Johnson & Johnson is doing well right now, there are better options for investors that don't have nearly as much long-term risk.
JNJ Will the $200 stop a protracted and non-corrective rally?Johnson & Johnson is a major manufacturer of cosmetic and sanitary products, as well as medical equipment and medicines. The company was founded in 1886.
In general, the history of the company is mega-successful. The corporation expanded through the purchases of competitors and gained more and more market share in its areas.
The company's progress is confirmed by the capitalization, which exceeds $430bn , as well as the graph of the JNJ share price, which is growing parabolic.
For 10 years, from 2002 to 2012, smart and patient investors recruited long positions in JNJ shares. During this period, the price traded in a broad consolidation of $46-71, growing volumes talked all - patience and everything will be)
From 2012 to the present, the value of JNJ shares has grown practically without correction.
Even during the Covid market plunge in February-March 2020, JNJ shares fell by only -29%. For example, then the S&P500 fell by -35%, the DJI index -38%, and the shares of the hype TSLA by as much as -60%.
The investors in this company knew and believed and they did not lose, because during the COVID-19 pandemic, a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, Janssen Pharmaceutica, developed a vaccine against this virus, which is certified for use in the USA and the EU, and the value of JNJ shares has renewed its absolute maximum.
Since the beginning of the year, JNJ's share price has been pushed towards the important $171 level . After the price fixes above this level, another upward impulse will take place.
We assume that it may be final before the start of a prolonged downward correction.
In the region of $195-200, it is better to fix the longs and look around, because the correction can be deep enough, and enough people who want to buy JNJ shares again may be in the $ 84-96 zone.
Johnson & Johnson should stick to baby wipes.....Vaccine Recall!With the news that the CDC is pausing J&J vaccine distribution due to blood clot issues.
I'm assuming we should see it tank at the open? You're guess is as good as mine.
In my opinion if we see price drop it should be a good time to buy, because everyone else is selling.
The level I'm interested in is $147-$150.
It is an untested point of control where institutions may have some buy orders sitting.
Watch for an ABCD on the line chart (close to close) for entry.
We may not break the 2021 high, but if the March equal highs remain untouched, I would look to enter because there is still possibly liquidity there.
$150 should give a nice reaction if we hit it while those highs are untouched.
Let's Elevate,
Gio
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020
Another early breakfast for Pound sellers, brexit occupies the sentiment throne and optimism has clearly vacated! Pound now has its eye on the breakdown as expected since yesterday and even a wishy washy deal will be a sell in the short-term. Johnson and VDL taking it to the wires will turn out to be the obstruction for another move lower will be difficult to defend.
With 1.360x holding in fine style and shorts starting to enter with volume, quite heart-rendering.... Stay short GBPUSD looking for1.346x, 1.328x and 1.313x with invalidation above 1.372x; and long EURGBP above the 0.900x handle with main targets 0.92xx and 1.00x.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 09.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Commentary
GBPUSD
This linkage between the retracement and the impulsive wave is classical, believed only in absolute directional moves; ....sellers of UK assets are a forced to be reckoned with and such a move in 80 cases out of 100 will be considered worth playing.
I am dropping the figure from 1.350x to 1.345x because I expect sellers to aggressively defend the resistance move. The strength of the USD should in no way be underestimated. And suddenly we are reaching the nucleus of the retracement.
Clarification of the manoeuvre....
The majority are thinking that a dinner for two tonight between Johnson and VDL will consist of progress, instead I think the can will be once again kicked and create some kind of diversion. At the same time, we are going to use technicals here to show the nucleus. I shall choose a typical ABC retracement as an example of the flows to link and fade. In this case 1.345x is being blocked from the previous orderblock which we traded live:
The threat of another leg lower interrupting all lines of communication between GBP buyers on one hand and risk on the other. Therefore we should track the necessity of trapping out opponent on the highs.
If you know the thoughts of your opponent, it is easy to assimilate the concept of a counter attack; a flank which will hammer the currency in a naturally speculative way.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Chart of the Week📌 ridethepig | Chart of the Week
This illustrates the struggle of the retrace. Motto: first map, then position, and finally destroy.
Those that remember the infamous chart from Johnson elections will remember we are back to square one, another year has passed with the direction focused on a necessary component of 'how to make the country less worse off'. This direction alone does restrain the freeing advance, more thoroughly than any other set-up.
Bravo! Sellers were not afraid of the 1.35 highs before, because strong play in negotiations or not it could never bring down the outflows from Brexit; and with Trump winning in doubt it is restraining the pressure of Johnson to drive back to the EU side.
A breakdown is there for the taking. Good luck all those attempting to play it.
ridethepig | GBP Trade of the Week♟ Another clear map for us to play with Brexit and the U.S. elections acting as the main price drivers.
A double top is a purely tactical weapon. It is terrible compelling; even for the most unaware retailers who will jump in - so we are tracking for flows driven to the lows after a double top.
We shall close this Brexit chapter with some strong short GBP trades.
(1). In the following EURGBP things are coming down to an interesting break unlocking the 1.00x levels:
GBP sellers have of course got the control, they are winning the continuation as long as 1.306x is holding (note the importance of this resistance, it should be safe and sound). What we must take into account is the tactical manoeuvre of the slimy politicians and any headlines around a brexit deal. To the downside, 1.291x as an initial target with 1.267x the bigger level below.
Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Brexit All you Need to Know about the UK Leaving the EU 🍃📌 Brexit: What happens now?
The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and is now in an 11-month transition period.
During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules.
However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament.
📍 MP's back Boris Johnson's plan
📍 What is Boris Johnson's deal with the EU?
Future trade deal
Negotiations on a trade deal with the EU have been proceeding for several months. The UK wants as much access as possible for its goods and services to the EU.
But the government has made clear that the UK must leave the customs union and single market and end the overall jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
Both sides say there a still significant areas of disagreement - for example, on EU proposals for a so-called "level playing field", which would see the UK and EU maintain similar minimum standards on things like workers' rights and environmental protection.
📌 Brexit: What is a level playing field?
The deadline for the two sides to agree an extension to the transition period has now passed.
If no trade deal has been agreed and ratified by the end of the year, then the UK faces the prospect of tariffs on exports to the EU.
The prime minister has argued that as the UK is completely aligned to EU rules, the negotiation should be straightforward. But critics have pointed out that the UK wishes to have the freedom to diverge from EU rules so it can do deals with other countries - and that makes negotiations more difficult.
It's not just a trade deal that needs to be sorted out. The UK must agree how it is going to co-operate with the EU on security and law enforcement. The UK is set to leave the European Arrest Warrant scheme and will have to agree a replacement. It must also agree deals in a number of other areas where co-operation is needed.
It's also important to recognize that major changes will take effect on 1 January 2021 whether or not a trade deal is agreed. Free movement of people will end and businesses trading with the EU will have to follow new rules.
📌 What are the big issues at stake here?
Top of the list is a trade deal to ensure the tariff and quota-free flow of goods between the EU and UK. But the EU will only agree to zero tariffs and zero quotas if the UK pledges zero dumping – that is, not lowering social and environmental standards to outcompete the EU.
Negotiators will almost certainly clash over the EU’s refusal to bring services into the trade deal, leaving the City of London reliant on a patchwork of market access agreements that can be withdrawn at any moment.
Another early fight will be over fish, as the EU seeks to link goods trade to maintaining the status quo on access to British waters, a demand seen as outrageous in London.
The non-trade topics sound easier, but are full of political landmines. For instance, agreeing a replacement for the European arrest warrant will require Germany to change its constitution. The UK will struggle to achieve the historic first of securing outside access to some EU crime-fighting databases.
📌 What will happen to the economy?
It depends who you ask. In the short term, much of the risk seems to have been priced in, at least on currency markets, where sterling still languishes compared to where it was in June 2016. The stock market is well ahead.
📍 Sterling is still down on its pre-Brexit vote position
📍 Shares have rallied recently, partly fueled by greater Brexit certainty
📍 Investment in UK business has fallen behind other G7 countries
Share your Views and comments ideas below to make things more better.
Thank you
ridethepig | Oven Ready GBP Chart PackThe economic landscape and political development
📌 What the less advanced participants must know about the Brexit saga and economic development
First a few reminders.
We call the resistance area drawn across the first chart our ' Loading Zone ', and here the word 'loading' is used in a trading sense and not its progressive sense.
The 1.23xx and 1.15xx are considered the 'absolute lows' in the current range (once again in a strictly trading sense). It is easy to find the centre, positioned where the scaffolding supports our price structure.
By defining our centre, we have created technical borders around the price, in other words the map of our flows (1.35xx, 1.23xx and 1.15xx).
1️⃣ By political development, I mean the reckless retreat of UK market access in the short-term
The procedure to return to WTO rules is the same as the advance towards the house of economic bondage; whether you want to argue about sovereignty or debate migration, the loss of market access in the immediate term will damage the UK real economy. No-deal Brexit is coming in October despite the political fairy dust and attempts from the Supreme Court to 'take back control'. A ruthless Downing Street hijacked the entire country and are at the wheel aiming to cause maximum pain to the economy in the near term with their edenistic view of rebuilding into 2030 and beyond. So "development" of UK exposure is not really in play for the next 1-2 or even 3 years, but the idea is much rather that UK assets should be redeveloped from lower levels. It is good - if I may say so - from a markets perspective with the spirit of volatility in mind. However, from a humanist and democratic perspective there is a major threat. For example, think how undemocratic it would be to break international laws, destabilise the union and undermine previous commitments (we are not talking about a Banana republic, rather the country of the Magna Carta!!). It's very difficult to find any Brexiteers on the ground that truly wanted no-deal - let alone support for Johnson.
2️⃣ The global economic landscape must not be considered in itself to be healthy, but rather simply an environment which helps politicians pass the blame.
This is an important notion for all those following the covid dominos . The advance of Covid has given cover, where possible for politicians globally to develop counter arguments for nationalism without the criticism from the public. Because, as we have discussed together before, the end of the economic cycle is an unavoidable chapter in the sense that the economy, as with all things in life cycles naturally. For that reason, we should first position for a breakdown in the UK currency.
The following chart demonstrates the unavoidable cycle down:
Since the economic cycle down will last into 2021/2022, we may characterise the advances in equities as noise for our purposes as the equity market is not a reflection of the real economy via artificial CB intervention. Now the UK CFO, Rishi Sunak, can be seen like a deer in the headlights. The effect of years and years of policy mistakes? Tax hikes are coming, and the consumer will pick up the bill.
On the cable front, sellers position is comfortable from the point of view that the macro direction and confidence in the public sector are blocked via NDB. A breakdown of the wedge would trigger flows towards the centre at 1.23xx and in addition, unlock 1.14xx and 1.05xx the 1985 lows. Invalidation for the bear case would only come from a breach of 1.35xx. So, we can rightfully continue to look for selling opportunities across UK assets, including the currency.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Selling the Footsie📌 Exchanging
A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives.
In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role in hijacking the flows into UK assets. Recommend avoiding a waste of energy and time attempting to defend portfolios with UK exposure and subsequently focusing elsewhere.
Just think back to our coverage of the Pound when buyers were eaten up. This time sellers of UK exposure wish to occupy the downside in Equities to deliver complete annihilation of the economy. With 6,000 holding sellers have time to prevent the recovery and can move lower into Wednesday. The correct path of least resistance is to the downside, a break below 5,775 will leave buyers no choice but to capitulate.
Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.03📌 Here we have a relatively straight forward move in play.
After EUR held the lows buyers can follow through; true, clearly sellers are not in control and failed to obtain the powerful ABC sequence main target. In other words... buyers are aggressive, GBP exposure would be better off elsewhere. The mobility of UK market access will contract (at least in the short-term) with NDB and it's an illusion to say otherwise.
EURGBP buyers can enter into play here and on the break attacking new highs at 0.925x as a quick flow target. Invalidation in the swing comes into play below 0.893x as at that moment it would be appropriate to bring things closer to home.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GBP USD - weakness coming as high, lower high formedHello traders and analysts,
Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. what has changed since the last chart?
So what is new is that we have had a zone touch and a lower 4hour zone touch. We can see personally a failed touch of the zone, the GBP is staying weak against the dollar with uncertainty of the GBP strength so we will now look to the downside and close out longs.
COT report:
Long Short Total %Long %Short
GBP
Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60%
Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52%
Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59%
AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59%
USD
Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40%
Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37%
AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29%
Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29%
Technicals:
We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again.
However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long
There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players.
We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters.
for this trade however we are in short.
Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low.
Fundamentals
Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries,
Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire.
Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached
Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down.
Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment.
USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate.
USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable.
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10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
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Team Lupa
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.07.23On the UK side, we are still on track for a NDB and loss of market access in the short-term. As long as the June highs are holding at 1.281x then I favour the sell-side, watch for 1.252x and 1.228x below as we enter into the ‘eye of the storm’.
For those in EURGBP a simple leg from 0.900x => 0.913x is in play to kill the week.
ridethepig | EURGBP Positional Play📍 EURGBP
What are we trading here?
A counter any false conceptions that we will see a Brexit deal. All headlines produce an immediate effect for trading: wait patiently and quiet and justify fades:
Here the static weakness of GBP can clearly be recognised. Any idea of pullbacks into support will be short-lived. These remain our key loading zones with positional swings!
- In this case, Buyers will refuse sellers the freeing breakdown to prevent any cheap entries.
A ruthless strategy from Downing Street to avoid any extension flanks, and try rather to operate under the premise of No-deal. The strongest hands will be rewarded; one should hang on to the bearish UK story as long as possible.
Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, charts, comments and as usual keep the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
JCHAC - BreakoutStock has seen a breakout from the 3 month range in yesterday's session.
The breakout happened with good volume as well.
RSI is also in alignment with the breakout.
Now if stock sustains above 2400 levels, there is high chance it is moving towards 3000 and 3300 levels.
Trade type : Positional
Risk Reward :
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.06.15The long run positional struggle for buyers which comes from their immobility to find positives in the Brexit debacle. It is extremely important to note the coming years of UK growth are harmed via the presence of protectionism, the fundamentals have widely been discussed here:
With Brexit headlines entering back into play, focus will shift towards NDB repricing as there is little encouragement to see here. The GBP is getting hit badly as expected all last week with EURGBP flirting with the break above 0.90x again. Actively looking to add cable shorts on any rallies into 1.255x. Look to target 1.237x below with stops above 1.265x.