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DOW JONES has formed a 2018/2020 type bottom.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) made the first bullish step as we outlined last week by breaking above its 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) and is currently just below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In the process it has made the exact same build up as the COVID bottom and subsequent recovery but let's see into this in more detail. First and foremost, it achieved this week the 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It is the first such formation below the 0.00 level since May 18 2020 and January 28 2019. Those were the Bullish Crosses that followed the COVID crash and U.S. - Chine trade war bottoms respectively and took the index into the early recovery steps. On top of that, it broke above a Lower Highs sequence on the 1W RSI that was holding since November 01 2021. Moving on to the MA periods, we can see than during the COVID crash, when the 1D MA50 crossed below the 1W MA100, the bottom was formed. That is also the case with the current correction as the same 1D MA50/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross has so far formed a low on the June 13 1W candle. Back again to the COVID crash, when the 1D MA100 crossed below the 1W MA100, the index was consolidating preparing for a strong rise above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. On today's correction, we are just after this Bearish Cross, with the index already on two straight (very strong) 1W green candles. We can see that even in January 2019, the index had a similar consolidation within the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 before a break above the latter pushed Dow Jones aggressively above the 0.786 Fib. In both sequences, all this happened after a 1W MACD Bullish Cross (as we have today), while the 1D MA50 was holding as a Support. Even though the pattern since the start of the year is a Channel Down within a Bearish Megaphone, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) located exactly on the Megaphone's Lower Highs (top) trend-line, we do have an excellent framework to work projections based on MA break-outs, modelled out of the similar 2018/ 2020 patterns. This time the 0.786 Fib is around 35250 and this is our target for the end of Q3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
2
DOW JONES rejected on the 1D MA50Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected yesterday after marginally breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 05. This comes after 3 weeks of sideways trading following the Lower Low of the Channel Down on June 17. That was clearly mentioned and projected 1 month ago s shown on our idea below: The recent consolidation though comes as a technical surprise but can be viewed as a product of the low volume summer season. Technically, a 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50 is a buy signal, targeting the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down. The last such rebound reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This time that is just over the Channel and with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) declining, we can say that this is the 2nd break-out signal to look for. On the other hand, a break below the June 17 bottom (29680), would most likely coincide with a break below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and will be taken as a sell break-out signal targeting the -0.236 Fib. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
3
DOW JONES repeating the doom fractal of 2008??This analysis on the 1W time-frame illustrates the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on the log scale. The emphasis is on the comparison of this year's correction with the Subprime Mortgage Crisis that started after the October 2007 peak and bottomed in March 2009. As you see so far this year's correction has been following the fractal extremely closely. Emphasis is given on the fact that at the moment we seem to be at the point where the price is rebounding after near contact with the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) similar to March 2008. If we get a rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by the end of the Summer, then the fractal will get most likely confirmed and a 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross after a break below the 1W MA200, can initiate the final and most aggressive part of the index collapse. That may take us to levels not see since early 2016. Now of course that comparison alone can't form any trading strategies but could be used as a long-term benchmark for entering/ exiting on time. Even the 1W RSI sequences are so far identical as the sentiment of realism vs denial certainly seems to be in the early 2008 levels. Food for though for sure. What's your opinion? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
6
Dow Jones potential for a drop! | 22nd June 2022On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the stochastics indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 29748 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension is to our 1st resistance at 30795 in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 2nd support where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Rockqet
DOW JONES Critical Channel bottom test.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Down since its All Time High on January 04 2022. It is the very same Channel on which we based the accurate sell call 10 days ago as the price failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than a week: Right now the index broke below the previous Support and made a new Low. In fact it is exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel. The 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is at 29300 but if it closes a 1D candle below the Lower Lows trend-line, it will most likely break below the 1W MA200 as well and reach the -0.236 Fibonacci extension around 28770. Until that happens, we have to follow the accurate long-term pattern and go on a tight SL buy towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line around 33000. The 1D RSI is just above the oversol 30.00 level which has worked as a buy entry for many months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
3
Dow Jones Potential bullish rise | 9th June 2022On the H4, with RSI moving in an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 32685 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are to our 1st resistance at 34042 in line with the swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 2nd support at 31876 where the pullback support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Rockqet
DOW JONES Consolidating below the 1D MA50 for a weekDow Jones (DJI) eventually rebounded at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its long-term Channel Down, since our last analysis that indicated a sold R/R ratio for going long: Since the end of May though, the index has failed just before a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and turned sideways below that level. This is similar to the last Lower High formation on the Channel Down, as shown on the previous analysis. Technically, as long as the price remains below the Lower Highs trend-line, it is a sell (on a tight SL of course) opportunity towards the 30650 Support and if that breaks, towards the -0.236 Fibonacci extension around 29500. Even in the event of a break-out, we still can't call a long-term bullish reversal as the range within roughly 34150 - 35540 is a Neutral Zone (we can apply tight scalping strategies there) as late March - late April showed. Only with a weekly candle close above the 35875 Resistance, we can assume that Dow has resumed its long-term bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
5
DJI potential for rise! | 26th May 2022On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 32696 where the swing high resistance is from our 1st support at 31886 in line with the pullback support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8%% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 31491 where the horizontal swing low support is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Rockqet
DOW JONES 1 month target at 33170 unless the Low breaks.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Down throughout this whole 2022 correction. Friday's low along with the 1D RSI sequence, resemble the bottom fractal of the last Lower Low within the Channel Down on March 08. The index rebounded to just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at the time to price the Lower High. Currently the 0.618 Fib is around 33670. That is our target on a 1 month horizon, unless Friday's low breaks, in which case we will sell hedge it to the -0.236 Fib extension at 29500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
4
Dow Jones potential for a drop! | 18th May 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 32553 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 31294 in line with the swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Rockqet
1
DOW JONES Bullish on Higher Lows but mind fractal continuationThe Dow Jones index (DJI), eventually fulfilled the selling sequence of January's fractal which I mentioned as possibility on my last analysis: The index is now very close to the Higher Lows trend-line of the February 24 Low and even though the January fractal hints to more selling, if the Higher Lows hold, I expect a rebound towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around 34350, as in Jan. A 1D candle close below the Higher Lows though, keeps the fractal intact and we can see the 32240 Support being tested, even a new Lower Lows trend-line towards the -0.236 Fibonacci extension but for this very pessimistic scenario, a strong bearish catalyst is needed, but it's often found during earnings seasons. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
2
DJI Potential bearish drop | 28th Apr 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our entry at 33583 where the horizontal overlap resistance is to our take profit at 32689 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for stop loss where the horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 34078. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Rockqet
DJI Potential drop | 27th Mar 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our entry at 33583 where the horizontal overlap resistance is to our take profit at 32689 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for stop loss where the horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 34078. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Rockqet
Dow Jones Potential bullish rise | 25th Apr 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 34078 where the overlap resistance is from our 1st support at 33354 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support where the horizontal swing low support is at 32670. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Rockqet