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Trade Journal: Short $TSLA - Coiled Spring - 3/11/2020Markets have gone back down into the range and knocking on the lows. I have been looking for short plays to take advantage of this possible downtrend and TSLA looks intriguing. TSLA has not experienced the deep retracement like other stocks and is current sitting on support. On the daily chart, TSLA printed 2 inside days in a row and is setting up as a coiled spring. On the 30m, there are clear lower lows as TSLA continues to downtrend. I think if we break below 600, TSLA could tumble down to 450s. Entry - 634 Stop Loss - 655 Target - 450 Using half size on this trade. I understand that markets are extremely volatile at the moment therefore we could easily gap up big tomorrow due to good news. Need to reduce risk on all trades.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Trader_Kaji
1
Monthly Performance Review - February 2020February has been a big month for me in terms of process improvement and profits. I picked up some big winners with SPCE long, CZZ short, XPEL short, and TTWO short however I missed a lot of runners as well. February has also been a crazy month towards the end with this current crash in the markets. Amazingly, I managed to switch my bias early and profit off the dip by shorting CZZ, XPEL, and TTWO. Of course there were a lot of losers as well and my strike rate this month was 35% with a 3.35 W:L ratio. In terms of process improvements, I've changed some of my trading rules to eliminate some of my short comings I noticed last week. For the past month I had been stalking trades on ZM, PAAS, SSRM, and NUGT, however I missed them all. The main reason for this was that all these stock broke out pass my acceptable entry zone right at market open. I had a rule which states "Do not take any trades within the first hour." I only had this rule because that was what one of the professional traders I follow does. I took a deeper dive into my past performance and noticed some of my bigger winners occurred when allowing entries within this time. This makes sense because if a stock is going to breakout, they usually do it right in the morning. I eliminated this rule and I was actually able to catch XPEL short later in the week. Another improvement I made to my process was introducing Anchored VWAP and the High Volume Node (HVN). Anchored VWAP is best used by Brian Shannon to find sentiment and I now use Anchored VWAP on SPY, QQQ, and IWM for market analysis. The second tool I now use deals with Volume Price Profile, which I have been using for awhile, however after looking through some of my recent trades, I noticed most of my losers had high volume nodes right above the entry. These high volume nodes become areas of resistance which is something I do not want to see when entering a setup. I introduced a new rule to ensure there are no significant HVN between the entry and my target when taking on new trades. My main goal next month is to simply improve my strike rate. I believe my entry and exit methodologies are acceptable, however I took a lot of unnecessary trades that could have been avoided by simply following market timing rules or using HVN to find nearby resistance. With this current dip, I don't think I will be taking on too many new trades at the beginning of the month until direction, up or down, is confirmed.
AMEX:SPY
by Trader_Kaji
Stock Market Analysis - 2/27/2020This is what real panic selling looks like. SPY just blew through all important Anchored VWAP and moving averages. SPY is clearly in a downtrend and I would not be a buyer anytime soon until the trend termination is confirmed. "A trend is innocent until proven guilty". Don't try to fight this trend or you will get burned. Of course we are getting to extremely oversold conditions and this selloff has expended too much energy to sustain this current trend. My plan is to not take any new positions and manage my current shorts by moving stop losses down as the trade works. Putting on new shorts or taking longs hoping to catch some meat off the bounce seems silly to me in terms of Risk vs Reward. Next important level to watch is 295. SPY is currently stuck in a HVN therefore a real flush in the morning would need to occur past 295 for continued, sustained selling. Otherwise if we gap up or stay flat, expect some consolidation within this HVN between 301-295.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Short TTWO - Rising Wedge - 2/24/2020With market weakening and a big gap down day, I've been continuing looking for short ideas to ride this possible start of a big downtrend. TTWO has been of interest short since making a bearish PEG and creating a nice rising wedge pattern. I was looking to get short at the break of this pattern. Entry - 112.70 Stop Loss - 115 Target - 100 I already exited this trade at 114.60 (Early stop). I pulled the trigger way too early on this trade today. TTWO did not clear the high volume node which was clearly acting as support. I ended up bottom ticking the short entry. I will continue watching TTWO as the setup is still valid. I am expecting retracement to the upside tomorrow in the market.
NASDAQ:TTWOShort
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $PAAS - 2/26/2020Been stalking PAAS ever since it had a nice breakout last week. Today PAAS looks like it is done pulling back and looking for a continuation move. PAAS is a silver miner which usually acts inversely to the market making this an acceptable long trade. PAAS pulled directly into the previous all time highs and printed a Hammer Candlestick on the 30m timeframe. I went long when PAAS made a higher low then higher high on the 30m timeframe. Entry - 24.45 Stop loss - 24.05 Target - 26 In hindsight, PAAS pattern does not look ready yet and I may have pulled the trigger on this trade too early. I think PAAS is going to pull in some more then make a new higher high.
PLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Short XPEL - Support Failure - 2/24/2020As market weakness continues, I been watching for new shorts to take right at market open. The gap down in the futures will probably create a lot of emotional sellers and stop out a lot of longs. XPEL has been having trouble keeping above all time highs and had a solid line of support to play a breakout trade to the downside. Both the 20DMA and the 50DMA had crosses and were how falling. These are great bearish indicators and I believe XPEL is due for some retracement. Entry - 13.96 Stop Loss - 15.01 Target - 10.00
NASDAQ:XPELShort
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $NIO - Coiled Spring - 2/19/2020Since failing below the 20DMA last month, NIO has been consolidating nicely in a tight pennant pattern. NIO is looking like it's about to breakout. There is a key breakout area at 4.15 where the Anchored VWAP from the December 30th breakout and the 20DMA lines up. Entered this trade early today as it looks like momentum could carry NIO above this area. Went with 50% risk with a tight stop on this trade. Entry - 4.08 Stop Loss - 3.93 Target - 5.00
NYSE:NIOLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal - Long $PINS - Holy Grail Trade - 2/19/2020PINS recently gapped from earning but failed and pulled into the previous gap up area. PINS had recently bottomed last year but broke out and is now in a strong uptrend holding the 20DMA. Following this gap up and pullback, PINS is now at the 20DMA and bounced off it on the 30m timeframe. This is considered a Holy Grail Trade where a trending stock holding the 20DMA pulls back into the 20DMA. Entry - 23.61 Stop loss - 22.60 Target - 27
NYSE:PINSLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $PLAN - 2/10/2020Forgot to make a trade journal yesterday for PLAN long. On Feb 4th, PLAN broke out to new highs but failed and revered in the subsequent days. During the reversal, PLAN hammered at the breakout point and the 20MA indicating strength. Since then PLAN is consolidating above the breakout area and possibly ready to head to new highs. Entry - 61.07 Stop Loss - 59.10 Target - 75.00 In hindsight, I do not think this trade was made at the best timing. PLAN has earnings on Feb 24th which will cut this trade short. I do not think PLAN will make it to my target before the earnings date.
PLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $LK - Inside Day/Coiled Spring - 2/18/2020Ever since the Muddywater news drop and recovery, LK had been consolidating right under 39 before recently breaking out. LK had been holding above the rising 50MA indicating strength. On 2/13 and 2/14, LK made two inside day candlesticks in a row and formed a coiled spring on the 30m timeframe. This is an indication of future volatility and a possible breakout. My gameplan was to go long on 2/18 when LK broke out and above 39. Entry - 39.93 Stop loss - 37.33 Target - 50
LLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $PETS -2/11/2020PETS recently broke out of a Cup and Handle pattern while holding the 50MA. There was good volume on the breakout yesterday however today PETS pulled back and hammered off the breakout point. I took the opportunity to go long PETS within this pullback. This is a clean Cup & Handle setup with a clean line of resistance. I also like the fact PETS already announced earnings this quarter therefore there is a lot of time for natural price movement to occur. Entry - 28.61 Stop Loss - 27.48 Target - 33
NASDAQ:PETSLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $SPCE - 2/10/2020Forgot to make a trade journal yesterday for SPCE Long. I've been stalking SPCE during it's consolidation and a nice ascending triangle was developing on the 30m timeframe. SPCE a speculative stock that's been gaining momentum since it's bottom last year. I think SPCE has a lot more to run. Entry - 20.31 Stop Loss - 19.49 Target - 25 SPCE had a great start today. Started the morning with a gap up but sold off, then reversed all in the first 30 minutes. This printed a strong hammer candlestick. SPCE stayed around the middle of it's trading range and finally popped into the close. This is looking very bullish.
NYSE:SPCELong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long $ACMR - 2/11/2020ACMR is a volatile and speculative stock that has been in a tight consolidation for the last month. Yesterday, ACMR looked like it was taking off and I missed the entry, however today ACMR reversed but bounced off the previous breakout area. Since ACMR retested the breakout area, I went long this retracement. Entry - 39.49 Stop Loss - 36.95 Target - 50.00 In hindsight, my risk should have been smaller on this trade. My recent performance has showed I have a lot of losses when it comes to pullback trades. Furthermore, the breakout trendline I drew is not really clean - only 2 touches. Finally, the current reversal is on high volume which is an indication of weakness. We shall see.
NASDAQ:ACMRLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long SDC - 2/4/2020I am revisiting SDC since going long and stopping out on 1/21/2020. Since then, SDC has been consolidating nicely with a tight pennant pattern on the daily chart. SDC is a speculative name with a huge short interest at 30%. This stock has the potential to short squeeze. Furthermore, as TSLA continues it's rampage, there has been a heightened sense of delusion and greed in this recent market. Speculative names have been very spicy lately and SDC is one of them. I went long within the pennant pattern as this is looking like a coiled spring and getting ready to explode. Entry - 13.75 Stop Loss - 13.32 Target 1 - 15.00 Target 2 - 17.50
SLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long BYND - 2/6/2020BYND is coiling up for a big move with an Inside day candlestick on low volume . This is a big volume pattern as volume is literally drying up. This could be considered a "Quiet and Tight" pattern. I also love the price action on the 30m timeframe at 106 support. This support was tested twice with a 2B reversal/double bottom and a tight pennant pattern is forming. A close near HOD within the previous candle's range will be powerful. Short interest at 23.9% on finviz so short squeeze above 135 is possible. Entry - 112.22 Stop Loss - 105.60 Target 1 - 138 Target 2 - 150
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by Trader_Kaji
4
Trade Journal: Long LYFT - 2/4/2020LYFT has been setting up a nice Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern in the daily chart and had recovered from lows last year. LYFT had been lagging behind UBER and I saw an opportunity to get in full size into a potential breakout. Yesterday I went long UBER, however I held back from putting in full risk due to the market conditions. Today's action of QQQ and SPY is showing a bullish picture and the theory that I had about a short term bottom was true. What also is driving these speculative names is what I can only describe as delusion. There is a lot of delusion and greed in the market right now ( TSLA ) which is making these speculative names very spicy . I consider this trade a short term volatility trade and I plan to close most shares before LYFT's earnings report. Entry - 49.63 Stop Loss - 48.90 Target - 56.00
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long UBER - 2/3/2020UBER has been hot recently after making a bottom base and squeezing out shorts last month. For the past few days UBER has been consolidating in a tight pennant pattern and is looking for another leg up. I am expecting UBER to reach the IPO price as some point soon. I decided to go long UBER despite the not so optimal market conditions for longs. I do believe we are at a short term bottom for this current market pullback and a small bounce is due. In order to control risk, I reduced my initial size to 1/3rd and may choose to scale in more in the future if market conditions improve. Entry - 37.42 Stop Loss - 36.95 Target - 42.00
NYSE:UBERLong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long SPCE - 2/4/2020As TSLA continues it's rampage, there has been a heightened sense of delusion and greed in this recent market. Speculative names have been very spicy lately and SPCE is one of them. SPCE has been pulling back recently but today recovered back at it's all time highs. On the 30m timeframe, SPCE is consolidating right below resistance which is usually a sign of future volatility. It shows buyers are interested at this higher level and sellers are struggling to take back control at this price level. SPCE really looks like it wants to go higher. Entry - 19.61 Stop Loss - 18.95 Target - 24 to 25
NYSE:SPCELong
by Trader_Kaji
Trade Journal: Long TNDM - 2/3/2020TNDM has been on my watchlist for a very long time and recently, TNDM broke out of it's nearly 1 year parallel channel. The volume at the breakout was significant, and TNDM has the potential to run 20+ points due to the significance of the breakout pattern. What caught my eye is the multiple Inside Day Candlestick that were printed yesterday and today right above the breakout point. TNDM has the potential to blast off either tomorrow or the next day. Entry - 75.94 Stop Loss - 73.20 Target - 90.00
NASDAQ:TNDMLong
by Trader_Kaji