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JPM

JPM daily shooter after ER, a XYAB and demand zone combination!JPM has a daily shooter after its earning report, also, there is a XYAB and demand zone combination. If it's able to break to the upside, it'll be a very worth-taking long trade opportunity! While, as the market bounced so much yesterday, to form an inside day actually showed significant relative weakness. But after all , if it still can break the shooter to the upside, I'll be interested in the long yo! Let's see how it goes!
NYSE:JPMLong
by Trader_Joe_Lee
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, C, JPM, WFC EARNINGS; EWZ, TLT/TBTAlthough the earnings season has already kicked off modestly, a bevvy of financials announce next week: C, JPM, and WFC (all on Friday). I generally don't play these underlyings for volatility contraction around earnings primarily because the implied volatility just doesn't ramp up to the degree I'd like to see for a play. I thought I'd mention them here since there will be possible broad sector (XLF) impact depending on how these earnings go -- i.e., there could be a play that develops in one of these underlyings post-announcement or in the sector as a whole that may be worth playing. Other Earnings: DAL (rank 41/30-day 32) announces earnings on Thursday before market open. The metrics don't look promising here for a directionally neutral premium selling play, but I could see going for something bullish if earnings experience engine failure and crash into the 52-week low around 48 and implied volatility remains high such that a bullish assumption play would be productive (e.g., short puts, Jade Lizard, etc.). Although there are some other single names that are "ripe" for a volatility contraction play right here (TSLA (earnings in 31) comes to mind), my general tendency is to resist the urge to put plays on in single name with earnings announcements that are near the monthly and instead wait until the eve of the announcement. With a rank of 99 and implied of >100%, though, it's understandably tough to sit on one's hands and wait. On the Exchange-Trade Fund Front: Brazil is voting today, so it's likely that you're too late to get into a volatility contraction play that may evolve after the results are finalized (the time to have put that play on was last week). That being said, it's also possible that EWZ gets even more volatile depending on the outcome, even though implied volatility is at the top of its 52-week range at 56.2%. The financial media has returned to covering 10-year T note yield hand-wringing and/or the spiking of bond yields in general as a general, explanatory theme of why the broad market gave some up last week. TLT broke through long-term support at 116 last week, cratering to 113. I was previously shorting TLT from the 122 level via put diagonals, but it appears that play may have temporarily played out in the absence of some risk-off event that drives treasuries back up. I will continue to short TLT on retrace, but there is little that sticks out to me in terms of horizontal resistance other than 122 and 116, and I'm hesitant to short from 116, since it literally just broke that level "seconds ago" in the scheme of things.
AMEX:XLF
by NaughtyPines
5
JPM: Top of range reversal to $106The yield curve is flattening in hurry with the Turkey crisis and that is baaad for US banks. JPM is reversing off the top of a well established channel with MACD confirmation. Downside target of $106 gives a potential 7% return. Do note I am not advocating a straight line decline to the bottom of the range. Moves within channels are generally ABCD formations so trade accordingly. Other mega US banks like BAC and WFC are exhibiting roll-overs from lower highs with similar risk reward profiles so there are a few options out there.
NYSE:JPMShort
by WellTrainedMonkey
BAC SHORTBAC (and the rest of the banking industry) has a rough few months ahead. The major institution has seen solid gains over the past year and is about to relinquish them all. The major indication this downtrend is about to pick up steam is seen as the 50 day moving average is ready to cross below the 200 day moving average, a major bearish sign known as the death cross. Price on the weekly candle has managed to close significantly below this intersection point, a sign that a significant decline could come sooner than later as there is very little support below the current price. Seen on the chart above, RSI is also headed south with no sign of retracement anytime soon. Money Flow is in a steep downtrend as well. I anticipate BAC seeing at least a 20% decline in the coming months. The last time BAC had a similar set up with the 50 day moving average crossing over the 200 day moving average, the stock fell 33% in 6 weeks. I have picked up November and December puts for BAC (and JPM because the chart and my prediction is basically the same).
NYSE:BACShort
by pstowe
Buy the Banks, Suckers!Every time I turn on CNBC, FBN, or the like, I hear a pundit or analyst pounding the table to "buy the banks." The go on to ramble a spiel about low valuation rations (P/B, P/E, P/FCF, etc), rising rate environments, yield curve inversions, and other reasons that they should outperform the markets going forward. But who's biting? A quick glance at the SPDR financial ETF - XLF - and you will likely arrive at the conclusion that this is a sell, not a buy. We've broken short term trends (red dotted lines), intermediate term trend (orange dotted line) from 2016 lows, and are approaching a trend line (green dotted line) from the recession lows nearly a decade ago. Even worse, it looks to have formed a double top at the $30 level, the first peak coming in 2007. Until there's a bid to reverse trend, this is a hard sell. Support looks to come in around $25. If that fails, the next support is around $21, but that's crash-level support. Of course, one must ponder... if the banks are rolling over, how well can the broader markets hold up? Is this the warning shots of a larger correction in the markets? Hmm...
AMEX:XLFShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
1
JPM: ABCD Completion with upside target to $121.60Couple of harmonic completion in JPM:- #1 The Feb to Mar butterfly formation which resulted in... #2 An extended ABCD down move to 106. #3 Price reversal with heavy volume on the 138.2% extension of the #2 ABCD which... #4 Happens to be the 78.6% retracement level (higher low) from the 6 Feb low. All these leads me to think JPM is about to make a move up to try a new high at $121.60, c.+9% upside. This is earnings season, all the volatility in global markets should = great trading results for JPM & fellow banks = pop in share price = Feds raise rates = +ve feedback loop on banks' share price. If you have not closed your shorts since my last post on the ESA, it's still not too late to do so.
NYSE:JPMLong
by WellTrainedMonkey
JPM Inside day after earnings and 2618JPM had an inside day after earnings; it could be a solid setup itself most of the time. In this case, it is also an bullish pattern and 2618 combination long, and now this inside day could be a confirmation entry! What's more, the earning gap already tested the previous gap resistance, so if the inside day is able to break to the upside, it could be a solid long trade! If it breaks to the downside first, this trade doesn't exist anymore. Let's see how it goes!
NYSE:JPMLong
by Trader_Joe_Lee
THE WEEK AHEAD: JPM, C, WFC, SMH, AND XBILater in the week, we kick off earnings season with a trio of financials: JPM, C, and WFC,* all of which announce on Friday before market open. Generally speaking, I haven't played a lot of financials in the past, since their background implied volatility never seems to bump up significantly enough. Here, however, with JPM's implied at 32, C's at 33, and WFC's at 33 -- all toward the upper end of their 52-week ranges, I figured I'd take a look to see whether "this time is different." It looks like it is ... . The April 20th 23 delta 104/114 short strangle in JPM is paying 1.47 at the mid with break evens at the one standard deviation line, and the corresponding defined risk setup (an iron condor) with strikes at 101/104/114/117 is nearly paying one-third the width of the wings -- a .96/contract credit, with break evens between the expected and a one standard deviation move. The C April 20th 65/72.5 20 delta short strangle is paying 1.00 even with break evens at the one standard deviation line, implying that a defined risk setup isn't going to pay at least one-third the width of the wings. Moreover, the longs clear of the 20's go 2 1/2 wide ... . In WFC, the April 20th 49.5/55 22-delta short strangle pays .87/contract with expected move break evens ... . Out of these three, I'd probably go with the JPM play because the defined risk setup is paying nearly one-third, and the strikes wide of the 20-delta strikes don't go all "wanky." Having strikes in one-wide increments basically everywhere generally leads to fewer rolling headaches. That being said, it's a long way between here and Thursday close, which is when you'd want to look at these underlyings again, adjust your setups accordingly, and see whether they're still worth your while. On the exchange-traded fund front, the top five implied volatility wise are: OIH (37), SMH (36), XBI (36), XOP (35), and EWZ (32). I'm already in XOP and EWZ plays, so the only thing that makes personal sense for me out of that group are potential plays in SMH or XBI, although I'm sure there's still juice to be had in just short strangling XOP (the May 25th 31.5/38's paying 1.00). The SMH May 18th 90/108 short strangle (20 delta) pays 2.55 with expected move break evens; its defined risk counterpart, the 87/90/108/111 pays .93, slightly short of the one-third I normally look for, but probably good enough for a less than 40 day until opex setup. The XBI 75/91 pays 1.98 with expected move break evens; the 72/75/91/94 pays .85 ... . * -- Given that this trio is closely correlated, it may also be worth taking a look at XLF, although with a background implied of 28, that isn't looking all that juicy at the moment ... .
S
by NaughtyPines
7