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Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD

Brexit Catalyst for Equity Trade?Before I get into the trade idea, I need to preface that I still believe that US equities will be going higher in the longer term. Not really for any fundamental reasons, but more so that the world is in a bad place and the US looks the best, albeit having a lot of problems. Martin Armstrong calls the US and the US Dollar the prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters. Also, there will be nowhere to go for yield. We know QE (or QE but not calling it QE is coming) and interest rates will be dropping to 0 because central banks are out of options. Check out my posts linked below where I talk about all these things...predictions are coming true and we are truly in the reset/crisis. With rates at 0, we are at the 'paradigm shift' environment that Ray Dalio has spoken about. Bonds are now being traded not for yield but to sell to another bigger fool. Real Estate historically goes up once the first rate hike occurs. You do not take a mortgage out when you know rates will be dropping lower later. Stocks will be the only place for yield and not only that, the liquidity in this type of macro environment will be appealing. You can get in and get out relatively quickly. So onto the short TRADE idea. Markets are still being affected by geopolitical and other uncertainties. This will affect equities in the short term, but again, as a fund manager money has to be deployed. You cannot hold cash for a long time. This money will go to work and I predict it will go into stocks for the yield factor described above. We found out today at time of writing this idea that Brexit will be delayed until January. I have mentioned how Brexit will likely not happen. It will keep getting delayed and we may very well see a re-vote. There are 3 reasons why Brexit will likely not happen: 1) The British politicians who are part of the European Parliament lose their 6 figure jobs and pensions. Not in their best interest to leave. 2) There will be a European economic/debt crisis. The German taxpayer will not be able to bail out Europe all by themselves. The British tax payer will be required to help. 3) Most importantly, Brexit sets a precedent. European nations like Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal may get inspired by a deal. Anyhow, the charts are setting up nicely for a move lower. We have been in an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows, and then price began to stall at a resistance/flip zone or in some cases near all time highs. For the SPX, we are seeing an exhaustion it appears. Would ideally like to see a break below this flip zone with a pattern like a head and shoulders. The Nasdaq already had the break. Would like to see a retest with a confirmed lower high and lower low. Nice strong break. The Nikkei is showing signs of a trend exhaustion here. Need to see if we get the break. The China 50 already had the break. Awaiting for another swing (lower high). The German Dax is at a crucial resistance/flip zone that you can see on the daily chart. Showing signs of exhaustion and potential reversal here. We should cover the FTSE as well, but honestly, no real good pattern/set up for me on the lower time frames. The Daily still has a crucial level below.
FX:SPX500Short
by Uncharted-FX
2
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Buyers in ControlNikkei shows Elliott Wave bullish sequence from December 26, 2018 low and August 26, 2019 low. This suggests that buyers are in control and favors further upside in the Index. The pullback to 21079 ended wave ((2)) and the Index has resumed higher in wave ((3)). Internal subdivision of wave ((3)) takes the form of a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave (1) of ((3)) is currently in progress as a leading diagonal. Up from 21079, wave 1 ended at 21650, wave 2 ended at 21325, wave 3 ended at 22265, and wave 4 ended at 21905. Expect Index to soon complete wave 5 of (1). Afterwards, Index should pullback in wave (2) to correct the cycle from October 3 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 21079 low stays intact.
CME:NKD1!Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Impulsive Rally in NikkeiElliott Wave view suggests the rally in Nikkei from August 26, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 1 hour chart below, the rally to 21890 on September 13, 2019 ended wave (3) and wave (4) pullback. Internal of wave (3) unfolded as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (3) ended at 20800 and wave 2 of (3) ended at 20416. Up from there, wave 3 of (3) ended at 21455, wave 4 of (3) ended at 21295, and wave 5 of (3) ended at 22095. Near term, the cycle is mature and thus it’s risky to chase the rally at this stage. However, while near term pullback stays above 21800, further upside can’t be ruled out within wave (5).
FOREXCOM:JP225
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Nikkei Break Out Nearing?Our Dax and ESP 35 trades are continuing as mentioned in previous posts. It seems cheap money and easing will keep stocks propped as there will be nowhere to go for yield. Of course, a geopolitical issue or black swan event can nullify this...and I believe there will be a confidence crisis approaching. However, we will deal with that when it appears and the bond market will give us the signal for this. I like what I see here on the Nikkei. A nice downtrend with basing/range. You can say a cup and handle pattern too. Let us await for a break above this resistance one. Other confluences fake out candles and engulfing candles at the major support below, indicating that we may have shown 2/3 market moves (downtrend and range).
FOREXCOM:JP225Long
by Uncharted-FX
Nikkei Demand Wearing ThinA significant level of support (20500) is again being tested... The biggest test the level has had so far. Up to now every test of the 20500 level has seen a quick 'touch and go' reaction, where supply has very quickly hit demand (waiting buy orders) and price has bounced away with strong momentum. This time looks very different and suggests that the demand in this area is wearing thin, with sellers having their best chance so far of breaking through this level... If a breakdown in demand does come through and we see a daily close below the current congestion, then expect a swift retest as resistance before dropping to the low of December around 19000. If the level is able to hold and we start to see some strength in the OBV, pushing positively away from its 20ema then price will meet some heavy resistance at the top of this current triangle. I expect this to all play out over the next few days and will be heavily influenced by any Trump Tweets and US-Sino trade talk headlines.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by JoelWarby
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Looking for More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave View in Nikkei suggests the decline to 19900 on August 6 ended wave (3). The Index is currently in wave (4) bounce and the internal subdivision is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 19900, wave W ended at 20795 as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) of W ended at 20650 and wave ((b)) of W ended at 20220. Then the move higher to 20795 completed wave ((c)) of W. The Index then pullback to 20075 which ended wave X with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) of X ended at 20300, wave ((b)) of X ended at 20765, and wave ((c)) of X ended at 20075. Wave Y is in progress with the internal subdivision of a double three in lesser degree. Up from 20075, wave ((w)) ended at 20685 and wave ((x)) ended at 20450. Near term, while above 20075, Index has scope to extend higher towards 20974 – 21530 area to end wave Y of (4). Expect sellers to appear from the above area and Index to either resume lower or pullback in 3 waves at least. We don’t like buying the Index.
CME:NKD1!Short
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For NIKKEI And USDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about stocks, specifically Nikkei and why USDJPY can see higher prices. Well, as you may already know, in EW theory after a three-wave corrective decline, the trend should remain to the upside. This is what we see in the stock market all the time. However, Nikkei got our attention, because we can see a nice five-wave rally after that three-wave a-b-c correction, which means that Nikkei remains in uptrend, but after another three-wave correction in the lower degree, where ideal support would be here around 21450 - 21250 levels, just keep in mind that bullish confirmed can be only if it manages to turn back above 21770 region! In the right picture you can see tight positive correlation between NIKKEI and USDJPY, which means that if NIKKEI points higher, then even USDJPY can see higher prices, so don't be surprised if USDJPY remains bullish towards 109 area or higher! So, seems like risk-on sentiment may continue and when we are in risk-on, we usually see bullish stocks, which are followed by recovery on XXX/JPY crosses. That being said, be aware of a bullish continuation on stocks, while XXX/JPY cross pairs may see a bigger recovery! Be humble, trade smart and wait for the right sentiment to enter the market! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CME:NKD1!Education
by ew-forecast
Nikkei Potential Head and Shoulders?The Nikkei is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern on the 2 hour chart. If we do break below the support at 21620, then we would await for a lower high which would be a retest of the break. However, ideally, would like to see a bounce and then a lower high which would make the head and shoulders pattern. Price is turning at a resistance zone (21800) zone which adds further confluence. This is a trade that can possibly play out next week. Keep it on your radar!
FOREXCOM:JP225Short
by Uncharted-FX