Nikkei Elliott Wave Right Side Calling HigherHello Traders,
Nikkei short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to 22161 on 9/06/2018 low ended red wave 2. Above from there, red wave 3 remain in progress, nesting higher in an impulse structure. With lesser degree cycles showing sub-division of 5 waves structure in each leg higher i.e black wave ((i)), ((iii)) & ((v)) expected to unfold in 5 waves structure. Also, it’s important to note that the right side is up & instrument is having a bullish sequence tag available in below chart. This suggests that the selling is not recommended.
Up from 22161 low, the initial rally to 22750 high black wave ((i)) in 5 waves. The decline to 22535 low ended black wave ((ii)) pullback.
Then the rally higher from there ended black wave ((iii)) at 24120 high. The pullback to 23817 low ended black wave ((iv)). Above from there black wave ((v)) of 3 remain in progress, looking to extend higher as long as the pivot at 23817 stays intact.
Afterwards, the index is expected to do a wave 4 pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling it & expect buyers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 23817 low.
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
Nikkei Bottom formation after 2008 crisis: take-aways BTCUSD Hello all,
I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation.
On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles.
The Japanese Nikkei bottom formation after 2008 financial crisis:
- Top 200 MA: 17 300
- Bottom 200MA: 8 752
- Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom:
Conclusions:
- After heavy selloffs; 115% retrace from 200MA top served as support.
- price levels below 115% got bought up quickly
- Afterwards price was mostly trading in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from 200MA top
- 200MA touched 100% retrace once.
- Jun2012 - Dec2012 strong consolidation around 100% retrace zone with very low volatility.
Link BTC 2014 Crash:
- parabolic selloffs
- price levels below 115% got bought up quickly
shortcommings:
- Prediction of 200MA trendline
- Empirical analysis
I'm looking forward to your feedback.
Best,
Bavo
How long will the range of 22000-23000 last?I think that the range of 22000-23000 will not last long.
Following the course,
July 2: It penetrated down 22000 that is the neckline of the blue double bottom.
July 5: It was bounced back by YPP (P) and returned to the range.
July 9th and July 12th: It went up as attacking the short entry on July 2nd while swinging around.
After the movement of attacking while swinging the breakout, the break succeeds after trying it a couple of times.
Therefore, it seems that there will be some move to clearly penetrate the red line or break YPP (P) downward.
Based on that, the latest is as follows.
<< tactics >>
1) MPP (R1) functioned as a resistance after failure to penetrate the red line.
Short entry.
The first limit is above MPP (P) 22441.9.
The second limit is above 22000.
The third limit is above YPP (P) 21488.5.
2) It went through the red line and 23000 upwards.
I will observe to find the next entry point.
I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees!
------------------------- --------------------------
Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text)
Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text)
Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text)
Indigo thick line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly
Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily
Indigo dotted line: outstanding round number.
Red thick line: Untrustworthy line for me
Red curve: EMA 20 close
Indigo curve: EMA 200 close
Green curve: EMA 800 close
Black curve: EMA 1600 close
x mark: Line which may not function
------------------------- --------------------------
How long will the range of 22000-23000 last?I think that the range of 22000-23000 will not last long.
Following the course,
July 2: It penetrated down 22000 that is the neckline of the blue double bottom.
July 5: It was bounced back by YPP (P) and returned to the range.
July 9th and July 12th: It went up as attacking the short entry on July 2nd while swinging around.
After the movement of attacking while swinging the breakout, the break succeeds after trying it a couple of times.
Therefore, it seems that there will be some move to clearly penetrate the red line or break YPP (P) downward.
Based on that, the latest is as follows.
<< tactics >>
1) MPP (R1) functioned as a resistance after failure to penetrate the red line.
Short entry.
The first limit is above MPP (P) 22441.9.
The second limit is above 22000.
The third limit is above YPP (P) 21488.5.
2) It went through the red line and 23000 upwards.
I will observe to find the next entry point.
I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees!
------------------------- --------------------------
Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text)
Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text)
Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text)
Indigo thick line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly
Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily
Indigo dotted line: outstanding round number.
Red thick line: Untrustworthy line for me
Red curve: EMA 20 close
Indigo curve: EMA 200 close
Green curve: EMA 800 close
Black curve: EMA 1600 close
x mark: Line which may not function
------------------------- --------------------------
UPDATE: There is a lot of short term noise in USDJPYHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
USDJPY - watch for a bearish reversalUSDJPY is about to start a downride on daily as you see. It reached the fib arc and repeats the bearish reversal patterns from the past waves. Follow the price to complete that bearish pattern it copies from the past and once it hits the fibonacci arc, we go for a down slide. Then watch for reactions or pullbacks at Gann angles. Every Gann angle line acts as support which price has to break. We can also do Elliot wave wave count once price starts moving downwards. We take TP once Elliot wave 5 is completed! It agrees with our geometrical arc analysis on XAUUSD which is about to start a ride up. Gold and USDJPY 0.02% have negative correlation (-65.5 percent on daily), as you know. You can also short Nikkei (JPN225) as they have +78 % positive correlation. If one thing goes up the other down. Our analysis confirm this correlation.
UPDATE: USDJPY has thrown all weak hands under the bus, tgt 104Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
UPDATE: USDJPY doing everything right, target remains 104!Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
Nikkei 225: 7th June AnalysisMONTHLY CHART
Price clearly uptrending, strong support at 21k, clearly rejected at 24k. Needs to create a solid area of resistance there, so expecting price to go up there and test if this level is really a relevant resistance level.
21k also a fib respectation, so decent support to range between those levels for a while (potentially)
Conclusion: View is definitely bullish, but rejections mean a potential drawdown on its way.
WEEKLY CHART
Nice support and channel lines lining up to an area of potential support. View on this is neutral/bearish, needs to test that 21k level for further upside move.
Conclusion: View is slightly bearish because of this sell off, looks like it already found bottom. Besides that, stay neutral.
DAILY CHART
Falling wedge broke out, structure is bearish on this one, expecting a move down. Maybe test the highs one more time.
Conclusion: Bearish on this timeframe. Clear downtrend starting, looking for a test of the lows now, which is 22k.
4 HOUR CHART
Steap move up, too steap to hold so it'll probably slow down in momentum and change direction here.
NIkkei Key LevelsStill plodding along, break of balance last night looking more like range expansion for now. Imagine we have a test of range lows and potentially look to touch upon previous highs & HVN's before any major push up. Top of range grey box looks like a low risk short if we push inside, end of day red likely as longs get paid.