The Japanese DiamondThese formations are rare, can be quite confusing, and are prone to a lot of morphing. I believe this one is coming to an end soon. Even if it does not come to an end, a move of size is on the horizon. I am short bias from a risk reward standpoint. I view the break of 17700 as constructive and would be looking to go long the index. I will start covering the Nikkei a lot more going forward on the small time frame using this thread as the bigger picture theme.
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
JPN225:The Channel and the Bearish Butterfly PatternThe market is moving along the upward channel and the price has hit the up trendline.Meanwhile a bearish butterfly pattern is completing at about 17400 levels and coincidentally the D of the AB=CD pattern is also at this level.
So it is good to sell short at about 17410 levels when bearish candles appear.
SL:above 17576
TP1:the centerline of the channel-about 16980
TP2:the lower edge of the channel-about 16540
JPN225, Nikkei may be preparing a nice dropJPN225 arrives to a downtrend line valid since more than One year ago and now will decide where to go. A secure breakout would mean a road to the new multi-year maximums.
Nevertheless, in my opinion, we will see one more leg down, which can long several months from now, and after that a run to these maximums will continue.
I´m ready to short 17,500 zone, targeting 12,000 on a mid-long term, SL: 18,100
Nikkei: Appears to have bottomed for nowWe can enter longs here (or in AUDJPY, like I reccomended to my clients), risking a small drop below low volume support). Risking 0.5% potential upside makes this trade worth it.
The weight of evidence suggests the BOJ will help us make some decent progress on this position soon.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Nikkei 225 Bearish DivergenceThe resistance levels which is marked on the 4H chart can be a good entry for a short trade. We have bearish divergence formed by MACD and RSI. Place a pending order below 16770 and stop above 16950. Profit target is Moving Average 100. On the daily chart price is near up Bollinger Band and it can be an additional confirmation for possible down movement.
JPYUSD: The yen rally continuesAfter Bernanke visited Japan, and whispered into Kuroda's ear, the market reacted with a strong decline in the Yen, accompanied by a broad risk on rally that absorbed the Brexit losses. It's possible that this rally has topped, with all or most bears forced to cover their shorts, collaborating with the momentum run.
If you are a 'Key Hidden Levels' subscriber, one look at the RgMov indicator here will tell you what the main trend is, and when to enter long to rejoin this trend. It'll be a good idea to enter longs above today's high on Monday, with stops under today's low, or you can speculate on this new daily high, and just enter at market now. It's up to your risk aversion and discretion, just keep in mind the setup's rules involve buying the new daily high on Monday, and sacrificing a couple pips, for a lower risk entry.
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Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
JPN225 NikkeiBased on what I am taught, every time RSI hits 80 and above there should be a new high after retrace. There are 3 possible peaks in this picture, the lowest has already been breached. leaving the other 2. Same case as usual if there is a MACD gold cross in the future for this chart, I will be very careful. This is a monthly chart for study purpose; not trading.
How this pans out we will have to be patient. Each candle is a month so sit back and relax.