Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
$Nikkei / $JPN225 At Critical Level; Favors Decline | $JPY #BOJ TECHNICAL SYNOPSIS:
1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 20780 as critical high/High-prob. reversal level
2 - Technical analysis would define 20961 as probable resistance level based on June 1997 and April 2000 structural level and last month's failure to break above same level.
3 - Current bar carves out a lower-low relative to last month's bar
Net Bias = BEARISH
BEARISH SCENARIO - 50% FIB:
Decline would likely seek Fibonacci handles at 38.6%, 50.0% or 61.8% significant retracement level. However, first retracement offers little to no past structural levels for reaction when compared to significant pivot range at the corresponding 50.0% Fib retracement level.
INVALIDATION:
Invalidation would occur if price broke above and closed above 20961. For now, market remains taut to the upside.
OVERALL:
Bears are gaining ground, defending a historical 20961 level. Market is taut to the upside, while technical profile is tilting towards bearish favors.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
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David Alcindor
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Nikkei 225 is doing (4)th wave correction.The initial move is 5 wave impulsive and hasn't finish yet. The index is going to reverse this week and go through a complex b wave correction. The final (4)th wave and (c) wave target is around 17500.
Nikkei225 _ Bat pattern completion.Bat pattern completion at pervious structure zone synchronized with RSI divergence.
Japan Following China Down...I have been watching this pair for the last few weeks. It is closely related to China, with all it's current problems, as many Chinese companies are represented on the Japanese Index (I'm led to believe). It's been uncannily bouncing off fib lines all the way down, both the Fib drawn on a larger scale, the rise from October to December, and also smaller partitions of these on the way down.
I would say we are very likely to see a drop down to the October low at 17000 but could well see a slight retrace to 17550 before hand and so this is where I will put my entry. My SL will be 17815 and target 17000 with a 1 to 2 R/R. Though we could se things going even further down, the next supports being in the 16600 region
The charts a little rough to look at, any tips on neatening it up would be much appreciated!!
JPN225 W (GARTLEY PATTERN OR CRAB PATTERN)SHORT ANY WAYJPN225 W (GARTLEY PATTERN OR CRAB PATTERN)SHORT ANY WAY
The Japanese Bat // IF=THEN ®FX:JPN225
Bearish BAT:
Point B:
38.2% to 50% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
88.6% XA
Targets:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
Safe Trades;
Possible LONG positions on NIKKEIWe have two possible short positions on the FX:JPN225
1. If price touches the first blue area, check if there is divergence on either MACD or stoch. If step 1 is fulfilled, continue.
2. If step is 1 fulfilled, we want to see either a double bottom or w/m pattern forming on 4H or 1H. Will demonstrate those patterns when the time comes. If step 2 is fulfilled, continue.
3. TP/SL will be set when necessary price action takes place in those areas. We will always wait for pullback no matter what. No pullback, no trade. If step 3 is fulfilled, continue.
4. Short when PRICE makes higher high. If it doesn't and instead makes lower low, abort this potential SHORT and look for the next red area.
Purple horizontal line: BRN(big round numbers).
Bearish week on japan, maybe a correction?After the strong rally, I'd expect a little downside. Nothing big , tho, although I could be wrong.
Shorting at trend-line break with large stop.
Shorting at resistance with small stop.
Shorting at upper resistance with minimal stop.
1% | 0.8% | 0.5% Equity Risk (ER) on each entrance.
Interesting zone right now for Yen crosses this weekWatch this current zone. An over-and-under pattern and fib 261.8 lurks below and the Weekly pivot is the magnet above.
Either way PA choose it sets a the path for the Yen crosses this week.
WHY ARE PEOPLE SCARED? SPX500 AUS200 FRA40 GER30 UK100 JPN225I present you 6 stocks with the same pattern action.
SPX500 AUS200 FRA40 GER30 UK100 FX:JPN225
Contrary to popular belief, I don't see any preference of expecting stocks to crash. I just see scared investors because prices touched the support levels, so everyone is panicking about it.
This also happened last year on October, many people panicking that it was going to crash but it was just a correction. Bubbles don't end until proven exploded.
Why?
Because the major support level just bounced. Look at the symmetrical support and resistance lines, they haven't been broken in all stocks. They all bounced.
I am not saying it will go up or down. I am just trying to clarify that the trend still continues, although it can be an excellent opportunity to buy while this hasn't been broken. Just don't let your emotions kick in.
As always, keep it safe.
JPN rally completion - close-up on wave count and targetsHere's a close-up on the wave count of the last 5th wave of the rise. We really need one last push to the top before all waves are in place. The target of 21368 assumes equality of wave (iii) and wave (v) - and I hope we will not exceed it as otherwise wave (v) would become longer than (iii).
No sell-off yet. Music is still playing. Need to keep dancing.I am trying hard to identify a point of reversal of S&P and since I don't find any yet I decided to look at JPN225 for its wave count as well, as anyway the markets will all reverse at the same time. JPN waves seem a little bit clearer, at least there is an ending diagonal with a nicer wave structure than in S&P.
I think there is still one wave up to go, possibly for a few weeks or a month before we reach a reversal.
I will make a close-up of the last 5th wave in the next post.
JPN225 potential bullish Bat pattern setting upHere on the Japanese index we got a Bat pattern setting up where we are going to buy it up from previous support / structure level, but we still needs to wait for it to come down a bit more and the RSI come more close to the 20ish oversold condition, but its not a must for taking the trade.
Comments good or bad are welcome
Kind regards
Thomas Jeff
JPN225 Potential Bat pattern completionHere we got a Bat to look out for tonight, its against trend so we only go for target 1 to protect capital. RSI is on its way to over bought condition.
Today we got a hit on the AUDCAD Bat, but got a target 2 winner in a Bat on GER30 index. Currently we are in a short position on a Cypher on USDCAD. And we just entered long on a Cypher on EURUSD so lets see what numbers we wake up till tomorrow for those that follow me.
I will try more and more to begin to put up every trade that i take so those that are interested in Harmonic patterns can get a better feeling of how the daily grind is for this method. The good weeks and the bad.
Kind regards
Thomas Jeff
Nikkei225: Potential TCT into A Cypher (Some Random Analysis)The Forex markets have been kicking my tail this week so I decided to take a look at some other markets simply to clear my mind. Conducting technical analysis is actually a stress reliever to me, when I get do it on something that I don't trade. A few of my clients have expressed that they trade many of the indices, which lead me to the Nikkei.
Initially the first thing that popped out to me was the potential bearish Cypher pattern which met up with an outstanding amount of Fibonacci confluence after putting on a few extensions, retracements and inversions. I also had an abcd move projected last night, but couldn't say for sure since the "C" leg was still in progress.
As I took another look this morning i see that the C leg has retraced to a level deep enough to provide a rather good risk to reward for a trader looking to hop on long...not because of the potential Cypher completion, rather because of the overall shift in the trend that we just saw after achieving a HHHC.
JPN225 Intraday Long IdeaOpening a long position here at 18543 where C=A.
Looking for another push higher or at least in a 3 waves reaction
Nikkei getting back on track againNikkei seems to get back in line again after a short breakout on the downside meeting the EMA62.
In order to continue it's trend it needs to stay between the two grey lines which were formed in the beginning of January.
I am long with a first target at 19000.
SL just below the EMA62
Feedback/Ideas?
Looking to Short the Nikkei 225 IndexNikkei 225
- Clear Bearish Divergence (Price making higher highs while RSI is making lower highs).
- I am interested in Shorting the Index if it breaks 17093 ( the most recent swing low).
- On a break of the lows and the trendline, I will wait for a pull back to re-test the level again then issue my short position to 16425 area.
- The trend remains bullish. This is a counter trend trade.
A fall in Japan Equities will yield a fall in USDJPY GBPJPY EURJPY as it will signify Yen strength. So look for similar opportunities in the Yen Pairs.
