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Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD

Nikkei to stall at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28135 (stop at 28340) Buying pressure from 27458 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. We are trading at overbought extremes. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 27550 and 27395 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Short
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei looking for a temporary move lower?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27855 (stop at 27635) We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 27855 level. Our profit targets will be 28495 and 28595 Resistance: 28505 / 29295 / 29710 Support: 27880 / 27395 / 27050 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
Nikkei remains a long.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 28098 (stop at 27940) Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (25535 - 28653) and we expect this to continue. Short term bias is bullish. Bespoke support is located at 28098. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 28469 and 28509 Resistance: 28276 / 28588 / 28731 Support: 28098 / 27864 / 27629 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
Selling Nikkei into a rally.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28280 (stop at 28505) Buying pressure from 27629 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27705 and 27605 Resistance: 28505 / 29295 / 29710 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Short
by VantageMarkets
Has Nikkei found a swing low?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27430 (stop at 27235) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. We are trading at oversold extremes. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 27990 and 28505 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Long
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei 225 Cash index looking great with C&H to 30,629Cup and Handle formed on the Nikkei225 Cash. The price broke above the brim level showing buy side liquidity on the up. 7>21>200 RSI>50 to 70 Target 30,629 My concern is that the price broke above the brim with a large green candle. Now as a trader, I would wait for a bit of a pullback to the brim level as a retest getting in at a conservative level. INTERESTING FACTS The Nikkei 225 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of the 225 largest companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The index was first introduced on September 7, 1950, by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) newspaper, hence the name "Nikkei 225". It's most widely quoted average of Japanese equities, and is considered a barometer of the Japanese economy. The Nikkei 225 has a base value of 176.21, which represents the closing price of the index on September 7, 1950. Interesting because most base values of indices start at 100. Some names you would know in the index is Mitsubishi, Sony, Toyota, Honda, Panasonic and Toshiba to name a few
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Long
by Timonrosso
Nikkei to stall at resistance.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 27700 (stop at 27850) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 27700 level. Our profit targets will be 27280 and 27055 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27055 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
TVC:NI225Short
by VantageMarkets
Buying Nikkei on dips.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27280 (stop at 27140) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 27670 and 27890 Resistance: 27890 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27055 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
TVC:NI225Long
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei to find sellers at market?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 27545 (stop at 27635) We are trading at overbought extremes. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 27545 level. Our profit targets will be 27290 and 27050 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Short
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei to find sellers at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 27310 (stop at 27425) Previous support level of 27266 broken. Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at oversold extremes. Short term bias has turned negative. A higher correction is expected. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 26980 and 26700 Resistance: 27390 / 27815 / 28500 Support: 27040 / 26700 / 26270 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by OANDA
Looking for Nikkei dips.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27300 (stop at 27135) Selling pressure from 27741 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Previous support located at 27266. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 27770 and 27880 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
TVC:NI225Long
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei remains bullish.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27390 (stop at 27210) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Previous resistance located at 27812. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 27840 and 27920 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27055 / 26710 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
Nikkei to stall at current highs?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 27690 (stop at 27802) Buying pressure from 27266 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. Previous resistance located at 27755. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. We look to sell rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27410 and 27050 Resistance: 27700 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by OANDA
Nikkei remains positive.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 27245 (stop at 27130) Selling pressure from 27807 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Previous support located at 27168. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 27570 and 27825 Resistance: 27825 / 28505 / 29235 Support: 27400 / 27060 / 26720 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:NIKKEI225Long
by VantageMarkets
Buying Nikkei at previous resistance.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26840 (stop at 26560) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 27630 and 27820 Resistance: 27400 / 27820 / 28505 Support: 27060 / 26720 / 26235 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
TVC:NI225Long
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei to find support at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26030 (stop at 25770) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 26780 and 27060 Resistance: 26720 / 27060 / 27400 Support: 26235 / 25615 / 24830 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
Nikkei 225 Index (NI225): Classic Bullish Reversal It looks like Nikkei is finally ready to start a correctional movement. After a text of a key daily structure support, the price formed a double bottom and head & shoulders pattern. Their neckline was broken with a high momentum bullish candle yesterday. Bullish pressure will continue. Goals: 27270 / 28050 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:NI225Long
by VasilyTrader
4
NIKKEI 225 CFD BULLISH PATTERNNIKKEI has broken the resistance e of the triangle pattern on the daily graph, signaling a possible bullish movement with possible targets of 26380 and 26530. If this pattern does not get confirmed, a possible support might form at 25956. MACD histogram is above 0 and RSI is above its 50 neutral line, both confirming the possibility of bullish trend. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by legacyFXofficial
BoJ watch - a traders' guide to JPY moves on the day As detailed in the BoJ meeting preview yesterday, the market is on edge for significant movement – case in point, USDJPY 1-day implied volatility (vol) currently sits at 49% - for context, this equates to a 279-pip move (higher or lower) on the day (with a 68% level of confidence), where the market feels fairly confident the upside should be contained into 131.00. You can see the implied volatility (vol) matrix, which uses 1-day option implied volatility, and we assess the expected move derived from this vol – essentially, it replicates the straddle breakeven move, which is what options traders use as a quantitative guide for movement, which they can then buy and sell vol accordingly. As a spot FX trader, I can use this to understand expected movement over a set period, which can dictate the market regime I trade in intraday – it also helps guide my position size and whether I even hold positions at all over news. When we see vols so incredibly high, it would be a surprise if this meeting proved to be a non-event, which is a debate I’ve been having with clients – the question for me is what scenario is 1) most likely 2) what is the ‘pain trade’? I list the expected policy measures below which have been widely touted as the most likely responses to be seen today. My own view is the BoJ YCC (yield curve control) program is on borrowed time – there is rising political pressure against it, the market is forcing the BoJ to buy unsustainable levels of bonds daily and Japan has a rising inflation problem that is seeing the fair value of JGB’s yield rise. My own view is the most likely action is that we see no. 1 enacted, with the YCC band rising to 1%, subsequently giving them more time to fully abolish YCC in the months ahead. However, I acknowledge the chance of no. 5 or 6 is also high. The big moves in the JPY, JPN225 and JGBs come if we see no.4 or 6, with no. 5 also offering big potential movement. The pain trade is likely seen in no.6 (no change at all) – given expectations, positioning (the market is heavily short JGBs and long JPY), and options traders short delta exposure – if that plays out the JPY could get smoked. Recall, the main policy shifts we could see are: 1. To widen the current 10-year JGB cap again, to 0.75% or 1% from 0.5% 2. To shift the target JGB yield from the 10-year JGB to the 5-year JGB. 3. To raise the 10-year yield target to 0.1% from 0% currently 4. To terminate and close off the YCC program completely 5. To terminate the YCC adding a temporary QQE program and a commitment to provide two-way liquidity 6. To leave the policy unchanged So, for those involved today keep your eyes peeled for headlines from 12 pm – it could get a little crazy. After pegging the JGB market for seven years, we typically get vol when we move away from a well-trodden regime.
by Pepperstone