Buying Nikkei at previous resistance.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26840 (stop at 26560)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 27630 and 27820
Resistance: 27400 / 27820 / 28505
Support: 27060 / 26720 / 26235
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Nikkei 225 JPN225 CFD
Nikkei to find support at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26030 (stop at 25770)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 26780 and 27060
Resistance: 26720 / 27060 / 27400
Support: 26235 / 25615 / 24830
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei 225 Index (NI225): Classic Bullish Reversal
It looks like Nikkei is finally ready to start a correctional movement.
After a text of a key daily structure support, the price formed a double bottom and head & shoulders pattern.
Their neckline was broken with a high momentum bullish candle yesterday.
Bullish pressure will continue.
Goals: 27270 / 28050
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NIKKEI 225 CFD BULLISH PATTERNNIKKEI has broken the resistance e of the triangle pattern on the daily graph, signaling a possible bullish movement with possible targets of 26380 and 26530. If this pattern does not get confirmed, a possible support might form at 25956.
MACD histogram is above 0 and RSI is above its 50 neutral line, both confirming the possibility of bullish trend.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BoJ watch - a traders' guide to JPY moves on the day As detailed in the BoJ meeting preview yesterday, the market is on edge for significant movement – case in point, USDJPY 1-day implied volatility (vol) currently sits at 49% - for context, this equates to a 279-pip move (higher or lower) on the day (with a 68% level of confidence), where the market feels fairly confident the upside should be contained into 131.00.
You can see the implied volatility (vol) matrix, which uses 1-day option implied volatility, and we assess the expected move derived from this vol – essentially, it replicates the straddle breakeven move, which is what options traders use as a quantitative guide for movement, which they can then buy and sell vol accordingly.
As a spot FX trader, I can use this to understand expected movement over a set period, which can dictate the market regime I trade in intraday – it also helps guide my position size and whether I even hold positions at all over news.
When we see vols so incredibly high, it would be a surprise if this meeting proved to be a non-event, which is a debate I’ve been having with clients – the question for me is what scenario is 1) most likely 2) what is the ‘pain trade’?
I list the expected policy measures below which have been widely touted as the most likely responses to be seen today. My own view is the BoJ YCC (yield curve control) program is on borrowed time – there is rising political pressure against it, the market is forcing the BoJ to buy unsustainable levels of bonds daily and Japan has a rising inflation problem that is seeing the fair value of JGB’s yield rise.
My own view is the most likely action is that we see no. 1 enacted, with the YCC band rising to 1%, subsequently giving them more time to fully abolish YCC in the months ahead. However, I acknowledge the chance of no. 5 or 6 is also high.
The big moves in the JPY, JPN225 and JGBs come if we see no.4 or 6, with no. 5 also offering big potential movement. The pain trade is likely seen in no.6 (no change at all) – given expectations, positioning (the market is heavily short JGBs and long JPY), and options traders short delta exposure – if that plays out the JPY could get smoked.
Recall, the main policy shifts we could see are:
1. To widen the current 10-year JGB cap again, to 0.75% or 1% from 0.5%
2. To shift the target JGB yield from the 10-year JGB to the 5-year JGB.
3. To raise the 10-year yield target to 0.1% from 0% currently
4. To terminate and close off the YCC program completely
5. To terminate the YCC adding a temporary QQE program and a commitment to provide two-way liquidity
6. To leave the policy unchanged
So, for those involved today keep your eyes peeled for headlines from 12 pm – it could get a little crazy. After pegging the JGB market for seven years, we typically get vol when we move away from a well-trodden regime.
JAPAN225 12th JANUARY 2023The trendline is the most common part of technical analysis in forex trading. But when compared to support and resistance, trendlines are less commonly used. The trendline should be more significant due to the number of touches.
Trendlines are very suitable in combination with several technical indicators, one of which is the Money Flow Index (MFI).
MFI is an indicator used to measure money inflows and outflows, both from local and foreign investors in the stock. Since MFI measures money inflows and outflows, it also involves volume in its indicator.
In other words, MFI also measures market interest in a stock (inflows and outflows are closely related to market interest). That's why MFI also includes volume in its indicator.
How to read the MFI indicator is very easy, almost the same as how to read other indicators, such as the relative strength index, stochastic, and others.
MFI has 2 main boundary lines, the overbought and oversold lines. The overbought line is at 80 and above. The oversold line is at 20 and below (note the arrow above). This means that if the MFI indicator is at 80 and above, there has been too much money inflow from investors, which causes the stock price to rise, thus causing overbought.
Meanwhile, if the MFI indicator is at 20 and below, there is too much money outflow from investors, which causes the stock price to fall, causing oversold.
Buying Nikkei at current lows.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 25620 (stop at 25400)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Previous support located at 25616.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 26245 and 26430
Resistance: 25795 / 26430 / 26830
Support: 25060 / 24500 / 24120
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Selling Nikkei into current swing highs.K225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 26635 (stop at 26855)
Buying pressure from 25931 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 26015 and 25795
Resistance: 26435 / 26830 / 27150
Support: 25795 / 25060 / 24120
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
$JPN225: Nikkei setting up for a rallyAs China reopening looms, maybe we get a boost too Japanese equities from here onwards...There's some interesting names, like Casio, whose line of luxury and more fashionable watches has been successful as of late. Definitely worth looking into it more. The index futures chart has a potential bottom signal in the short term at least, and with news of COVID zero being phased out, we might get the pop that is needed to kick start a Santa Rally here. Entries and stops and take profit levels on chart.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Nikkei225 short term bullish?The Daily RSI is pretty low
BoJ didn’t raise the interest rates
The market is trading withing range for over six months now.
With low Christmas volatility, the buyers might move the market to 27100- ish.
This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky, always do your own analisys before opening the trade.
NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up 2.05% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 38th percentile,
while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.82% movement
Bearish: 1.74% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 22.4% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 28309
BOT: 27170
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous high 27955
27% probability we are going to touch previous low 27419
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 64% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 21% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates 7% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Selling Nikkei at swing high.NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 27925 (stop at 28140)
Buying pressure from 27410 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27415 and 27110
Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240
Support: 27515 / 27110 / 26610
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Nasdaq going back to 1989 - Japanese Nikkei 225Sometimes reality is clear in front of everyone you just need to rewind and take a look at history.
Cycles are like human habits they do not change unless the environment around them changes.
Enjoy the good times while they last, we have only months left.
We Have Learned Nothing.
Buying Nikkei in a bullish channel.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 27675 (stop at 27360)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 28580 and 29240
Resistance: 28360 / 29240 / 30175
Support: 27370 / 26930 / 26385
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan is currently facing an inflation high not seen in 40 years. The weak yen and the increased cost of foreign supply for industrial commodities and manufacturing parts are slowing down the economy of the country.
On the technical front the index has broken the support of the triangle pattern and a bearish move might be expected. RSI indicator is heading below 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is below 0.
If the pattern continues the price might test the support levels of 27831. In the opposite scenario, the price might try to reach its previous resistance at 27929.50
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NIKKEI 225 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 NIKKEI 225 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 4.56%, rising 3.68% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 25th percentile according to ATR and 83th according to JNIV
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 4.7%
BULLISH Candle : 3.1%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 23.4% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 26600
TOP: 28630
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 27600 (already happened yesterday)
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 25600
Selling JP225 into swing highs.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Sell at 27390 (stop at 27610)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Previous resistance located at 27397.
A lower correction is expected.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 26810 and 26385
Resistance: 27370 / 28360 / 29240
Support: 26385 / 25500 / 24485
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIKKEIWednesday, 12 October 2022
16:12 PM (WIB)
Kindly difficult to understand the NIKKEI market direction. It is because there have 2 ways of direction between Bearish on the move with Bullish on the move too. The result of my analysis is that 6.18% is a very strong Bullish Belt Hold and the Golden Ratio of a Bearish Downtrend.
So, preparing Buy Order is A must in this market. Trading is not about how long I can hold. But, trading is all about how precise the analysis of the market is and getting the benefit of paying the time and money already spent.