Bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 149.38
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 151.90
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 146.29
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Jpy
Bullish momentum to extend?AUD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 97.55
1st Support: 95.12
1st Resistance: 101.33
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Important close for USD/JPY as bullish signals emerge Friday’s close looms as particularly important for USD/JPY with a break back above the Jan 2023 uptrend setting the platform for potential further upside next week. As things stand, another leg higher will fulfill the criteria to meet a morning star pattern on the weekly timeframe, adding to the case for setting longs with bearish momentum also starting to ebb.
A close around these levels would create a decent bullish setup, allowing for traders to buy the break with a stop below the former trendline for protection. As for topside targets, 150.90 and 151.95 loom as viable options.
From a fundamental perspective, USD/JPY has a rolling daily correlation with US two-year bond yields of 0.97 over the past month, implying the two variables are basically moving in lockstep. With little US data on the calendar next week to shift sentiment on the economy, that provides room for recent moves to extend further in the days ahead.
The biggest risk to the setup would be a major escalation in tensions in the Middle East or unlikely extreme dovish shift from Fed policymakers at the Jackson Hole economic symposium next week.
DS
GBP/JPY Set for Bullish Continuation Above 188.290" GBP/JPY Analysis
The price is expected to remain in the bullish zone as long as it trades above 188.290, with bullish momentum supported by strong liquidity.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price stays above 188.290, and particularly above 189.100, the direction is expected to remain upward, targeting 191.580.
Bearish Scenario:
A reversal and stabilization below 188.290 would signal a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to 186.370. A further decline below this level would confirm a downward movement.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 189.200
- Support Levels: 188.290, 186.370, 184.115
- Resistance Levels: 190.150, 191.580, 193.250
Tendency: Upward Movement
USDJPY: 146.300 can be a significant supportHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around 146.300 zone, USDJPY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 146.300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPJPY: Dovsih BoE And Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPJPY for a selling opportunity around 191 zone, GBPJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 191 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Overlap support ahead?EUR/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlapa support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 159.49
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 157.256
Why we like it:
The3re is a pullback support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 164.87
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish reversal off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could reverse to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 145.48
1st Support: 142.06
1st Resistance: 149.30
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.89
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 142.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 149.42
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPJPY sellAs we have seen GJ has given us a beautiful upward momentum and it seems like now the momentum has been broken as GJ was moving with bullish trendline and recently it has broken below the trendline and going to be bearish the bullish candle forming has no Bullish volume also its a retest of the trendline so we will be bearish for further action keeping an eye on the pair see what happens
USDJPY 6H / Will Speculators Rebuild Yen Shorts Amid Volatility?Will Speculators Rebuild Yen Short Positions?
Recent CFTC data on FX positioning reveals that the net short positions on the Japanese yen (JPY) have decreased for the fifth consecutive week, dropping to 11,354 contracts as of August 6. This marks the lowest level since March 2021, coinciding with the USD/JPY decline to a nine-month low of 141.67 on the EBS platform. Just a month earlier, when USD/JPY was near 162, the net yen short positions had reached 184,233 contracts, the highest in 17 years.
The recent unwinding of JPY shorts presents a clean slate for speculators who anticipate a repeat of the price action seen after a similar yen-funded carry trade unwinding in late 2023, which drove USD/JPY down to around 140.
Market Volatility and Key Levels
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a bullish trend, the price must stabilize above 147.825, with potential targets at 149.860 and 150.775, indicating a strong breakout.
Bearish Scenario:
The bearish trend remains in place as long as the price trades below the pivot line at 147.825, targeting 146.330 and 144.900.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 147.825
- Resistance Levels: 148.825, 149.860, 150.770
- Support Levels: 146.350, 144.900, 142.400
Expected Movement Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 148.830 and 144.900.
previous idea:
BUY TRADE ON USDJPYUSDJPY in a Potential Uptrend
The price broke out of a strong resistance zone and turned support multiple times.
The price is developing, and I am waiting for a break above the resistance to go LONG.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below support, then there will be an opportunity to go SHORT if the broken support is retested and used ad resistance.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
POSSIBLE TRADE SETUP ON GBPJPYPotential Trade Setup on GBPJPY
The GBPJPY price broke out of a strong resistance zone and turned support.
The price is developing, and I am waiting for a break above the resistance to go LONG.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Trade Responsibly!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
USD/JPY:Liquidity Grab at 142.000 Signals Long Setup OpportunityThe USD/JPY pair recently experienced a liquidity grab around the 142.000 area, which coincides with a key demand zone. This convergence of factors presents a compelling opportunity for a long setup, especially when analyzed in conjunction with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, seasonality trends, and our supply and demand analysis.
The liquidity grab at 142.000 is a critical event, as it often indicates a shift in market sentiment. In this case, the price dipped into a demand area where buying pressure is expected to intensify. This zone has historically acted as a strong support level, making it a prime candidate for a reversal and an upward move.
Our analysis of the COT report further strengthens the case for a long position. The data suggests that large traders and institutional investors are increasingly positioning themselves on the bullish side of USD/JPY, indicating confidence in a potential upward trajectory. This shift in market sentiment aligns with the technical indicators we've identified in the 142.000 demand area.
Seasonality trends also play a supportive role in this setup. Historically, certain periods have favored the US dollar against the Japanese yen, leading to upward movements in the pair. This seasonal pattern, combined with the current technical and sentiment-based factors, creates a favorable environment for a long position.
Given the liquidity grab at 142.000, the confluence with a demand zone, and the positive signals from the COT report and seasonality analysis, we are looking to enter a long setup in USD/JPY. Traders should consider this opportunity, as the potential for a significant upward move appears strong.
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NZD/JPY: A Potential Reversal in the MakingThe NZD/JPY pair has recently caught the attention of traders following a notable drop to the 83.000 level. This move downwards was met with significant demand pressure, setting the stage for what appears to be a potential reversal. Starting from last Wednesday, the pair has shown signs of recovery, indicating that a bullish trend might be on the horizon.
From a Supply and Demand perspective, the dip to 83.000 acted as a critical demand zone, where buyers stepped in to support the price. This zone, which had previously been tested, held firm, suggesting that there is substantial interest in the NZD/JPY at these levels. As the pair began to rise from this support, it confirmed that the demand pressure was strong enough to halt the decline and possibly reverse the trend.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is the analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The latest data indicates a shift in positioning among large speculators and commercial traders. These market participants, who often have access to more comprehensive market data and insights, appear to be positioning themselves for a potential upward move in the NZD/JPY. This shift in sentiment among key market players further reinforces the likelihood of a reversal.
Seasonality also plays a role in our bullish outlook. Historically, certain times of the year have been more favorable for the NZD/JPY pair, with increased demand for the New Zealand dollar during specific seasons. This seasonal trend, combined with the current technical setup and COT data, provides a strong case for considering a long position in the pair.
In conclusion, the recent drop in NZD/JPY to the 83.000 level has sparked a potential reversal, supported by strong demand, favorable COT positioning, and seasonal factors. Traders looking to capitalize on this opportunity should consider a long position, keeping a close eye on further developments in the market.
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BRIEFING Week #32: Stagflation May be InevitableHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Phil
GBPJPY H4 - Short SignalGBPJPY H4
Potential shorts in the firing line here on GBPJPY. This 188.100 price is trading very close to this 188 whole number, we could start to see some resistance, rejections and sell-off from this trading zone. We have previously sold off a huge 3000 points over the last few weeks, one of the biggest corrections we have seen in a VERY LONG time.
It will be interesting to see how we perform during market open in 15 minutes for the UK session. Based on the swing high price dated 01/08/2024 to recent low price dated 05/08/2024, we are also trading at a key 618 corrective level.
Bullish rise?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 145.48
1st Support: 142.06
1st Resistance: 149.30
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
How R2F Frames Trades Using ICT ConceptsHere I use USDJPY to illustrate how I would perform a top-down analysis in order to visualize the PD Array Matrix, and thus frame possible trades.
I have 2 perspectives. From a candle science approach, and a price action approach.
Ideally, I do not want to go lower than a 4h timeframe for my candle science perspective.
I hope the video is insightful.
- R2F
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to our take profit.
Entry: 145.53
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 142.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 150.83
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.