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Bullish Reversal on USD/JPY"Based on the demand and supply zones strategy, we anticipate a bullish reversal in USD/JPY. After a significant downward movement, the price has reached a key demand zone, where buyers typically step in, creating upward pressure. Historically, these zones have acted as strong support, leading to substantial rebounds. Current market sentiment, combined with the oversold condition, suggests that buyers will overpower sellers, pushing the price upwards. This spike is likely to gain momentum as more traders recognize the opportunity and enter the market." "Please note that the information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Market predictions are inherently uncertain, and trading involves risk. I am not responsible for any financial losses or damages that may result from trading decisions based on this analysis. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions."
Long
by ShikoFX
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 145.48 1st Support: 142.06 1st Resistance: 150.84 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPJPY 10H / (Consolidation Zone)GBPJPY Analyse The price will consolidate between 188.290 and 186.378 till breaking. there is two scenarios after breaking the pivot zone Bearish Scenario: stability under 186.378 by closing 4h canlde will supporr falling to get 184.120 and 182.450 then should stabilize under it to get a next bearish station 177.930 Bullish Scenario: the price should break 188.291 to be uptrend till 191.580 Key Points: Pivot Line: 187.400 Support lines: 184.115, 182.495, 180.180 Resistance Lines: 188.290, 189.975, 191.585 Tendency: Downward
Short
by SroshMayi
1
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence. We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Japanese Yen Futures Ticker: 6J 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
9
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
Gold vs. Yen Carry Trade: A Shifting Paradigm For years, the yen carry trade has been a cornerstone of many investment portfolios. This strategy involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as US Treasuries. However, a confluence of factors is making gold, represented by the XAU/USD pair, an increasingly attractive alternative. The Yen Carry Trade Under Pressure The yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, fueled by Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over its allure. • Rising Interest Rates: Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have embarked on a tightening cycle to combat inflation. This has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, reducing the potential profit from the carry trade. • Yen Strength: The Japanese yen has shown unexpected resilience, countering the traditional trend of yen weakness. This is partly due to safe-haven flows as investors seek refuge from global economic uncertainties. • Geopolitical Risks: Increased geopolitical tensions can disrupt carry trades. A sudden shift in risk appetite can lead to rapid yen appreciation, erasing potential gains and incurring significant losses. The Allure of Gold In contrast, gold has emerged as a compelling investment option. • Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical risks. As global economic conditions become increasingly volatile, investors may seek the security of gold. • Inflation Hedge: With inflation concerns persisting, gold has historically been seen as an effective inflation hedge. As the price of goods and services rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive store of value. • Diversification Benefits: Gold can help diversify an investment portfolio. Its low correlation with traditional asset classes can reduce overall portfolio risk. • Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been net buyers of gold in recent years, supporting its price. This ongoing demand can provide a bullish undercurrent for the gold market. XAU/USD: A Closer Look The XAU/USD pair, representing the price of gold in US dollars, offers investors exposure to the gold market. • Dollar Dynamics: While gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, the US dollar can also appreciate in times of uncertainty. Therefore, the performance of XAU/USD depends on the interplay between gold and the dollar. • Interest Rate Sensitivity: Gold is generally inversely correlated with interest rates. Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on gold prices, as investors may prefer higher-yielding bonds. However, this relationship is not always straightforward, and other factors can influence gold's price. Conclusion The decision to invest in gold or continue with the yen carry trade is a complex one, influenced by individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market outlook. While the yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, the changing interest rate environment and geopolitical risks have increased its challenges. Gold, with its safe-haven appeal and inflation-hedging properties, offers a compelling alternative. Investors should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of both options before making a decision. It's important to note that this article provides general information and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
JPY Strengthens Amid BoJ Tightening, USD Faces HeadwindsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) during the early European session. Despite the USD's initial attempt to recover value following yesterday's decline, the JPY continued to strengthen due to rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may implement further monetary policy tightening. The BoJ recently raised its short-term rate target by 15 basis points (bps), adjusting it to a range of 0.15%-0.25%. Additionally, the central bank announced plans to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to ¥3 trillion, starting in the first quarter of 2026. These moves have bolstered the JPY, adding to its momentum against the USD. Meanwhile, the upside potential for the USD/JPY pair appears limited as the USD encounters significant headwinds. Expectations are growing for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 74.5% probability of this rate cut at the September meeting, a sharp increase from the 11.4% chance reported just a week ago. From a technical perspective, incorporating our Supply and Demand analysis, we missed the initial entry in the Supply area due to a rapid spike that reached our entry point. Nonetheless, we are monitoring for a potential retest of that area for a possible short position. USD/JPY Chart ✅ Please share your thoughts about Japanese Yen Futures in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!
by FOREXN1
1
05/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,078.54 Last weeks low: $57,217.14 Midpoint: $63,647.84 Have we just witnessed capitulation after a week long slide in BITCOIN and crypto as a wholes price? -30% in 7 days, or is this part of a larger sell-off? Here are some of my thoughts: - '21 ATH REJECTION - As I have said in many of my previous posts the '21 ATH @ $69,000 is a level that BTC just cannot seem to break. Since the beginning of this year BTC has printed an SFP (swing fail pattern) 6 TIMES! This outright refusal to break through clearly creates a problem and when LONGS have been exhausted trying to break through this impenetrable barrier, naturally price must retreat and start again from a point lower down, we are seeing that now. - CARRY TRADE - The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has RAISED RATES from 0-0.1% to now 0.15-0.25% after the conclusion of its 2 day monetary policy review. This has not only cratered the NIKKEI 225 -13.5% (at time of writing) but that has also has a domino effect on other traditional stocks & indices. It may not seem like a big rate hike but the underlying meaning of the hike is the problem. With it comes a hawkish approach for the foreseeable and that has the rest of the world worried because it shuts the door to FREE CREDIT. When the Yen is free to borrow which it has been up until now it weakens JPY again USD, that free YEN is borrowed using assets as collateral and then used to invest into Real-Estate for example and yields more, keep the profit and pay back the JPY using USD which is gaining in strength, a two fold win. However, now that JPY isn't free to borrow and could potentially get more expensive to borrow in the future it means those people no longer have access to free credit and also the JPY is getting stronger against the USD. A two fold loss from what was a certain win. That has caused the panic and sell-off. - GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE - There is no denying the world is in a state of worry geopolitically. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 17% since July 1st and I don't think that is a coincidence when the the wider market, especially big tech is falling of a cliff. When war is a possibility/ inevitability, risk assets struggle, this is only natural as investors play it safe and try to protect what they have. A growing selling pressure and a lack of buyers will cause a market to retreat every time. This week I'm looking for BTC to form a new base for us to bounce from, with rate cuts coming from September onwards and a Weekly Bullish Orderblock filled this is a possible long term entry position in the making. Need to see some strength returning first but as the saying goes, buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy. TL;DR - '21 ATH SFP for the 6TH time this year, exhausted rally. - JPY rate hike closing the door on carry trades, huge selling pressure. - Geopolitical uncertainty, risk-off environment.
by ProR35
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 146.61 1st Support: 141.84 1st Resistance: 149.41 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Evolution of JPY:How BOJ Policies & Global Events Influence YENUSD/JPY Dynamics: A Historical and Policy-Driven Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Impact Historical Context and Market Reactions The COVID-19 pandemic led to some of the most extreme market reactions in recent history. During this period, global bond yields spiked in a highly risk-off environment, defying expectations that they would fall as investors sought safe havens. This prompted the Federal Reserve to implement unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE), including daily purchases of $300 billion in bonds. The market chaos highlighted the extent of leverage in supposedly liquid trades. Post-COVID , zero interest rates spurred significant equity market gains until inflation concerns and subsequent rate hikes caused a market correction. It was expected that higher borrowing rates would reduce excessive leverage, but the heavily crowded yen carry trade suggested otherwise. Yen borrowing was extensive and leveraged, flowing into the Japanese market due to minimal currency risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) System The Bank of Japan (BOJ), established in 1882, serves as the central bank of Japan. Its primary roles include issuing currency, implementing monetary policy, and maintaining financial stability. The BOJ’s policies and actions significantly impact the yen’s value and the broader Japanese economy. Key Functions of the BOJ: 1. Monetary Policy: The BOJ's primary tool for influencing the economy is its monetary policy. This includes setting interest rates and engaging in open market operations to control the money supply. The BOJ's main policy goals are to achieve price stability and economic growth. 2. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE): Introduced in 2013 under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, QQE aimed to combat deflation and stimulate the economy by purchasing government bonds and other assets, thus increasing the monetary base. 3. Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implemented in 2016, the BOJ introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves held by financial institutions at the bank. This policy aimed to encourage lending and investment by making it costly for banks to hold excess reserves. 4. Yield Curve Control (YCC): In 2016, the BOJ introduced YCC, targeting a zero percent yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to control the shape of the yield curve and maintain low-interest rates across different maturities. Recent Economic Developments Japanese Yen Strength: - Recently, the yen extended its rally to above 146.50 against the US dollar, its strongest level since March. This was driven by diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the BOJ. - Weak US jobs data have increased expectations for further Fed rate cuts, contributing to a weaker dollar. BOJ Rate Hike: - The BOJ raised its interest rate to a 16-year high of 0.25% and signaled the possibility of future increases if economic conditions warrant. This move surprised many economists. Government Intervention: - In July, Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen to support the currency through intervention. The government expressed concerns that a weaker yen could erode household purchasing power by pushing inflation higher than wage growth. Impact on Financial Markets Japanese Market: - The yen’s strength and BOJ’s policy adjustments have significantly influenced Japanese financial markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell by about 6%, closing the week at 35,909.70. This was one of the worst performances since March 2020 when the index fell below 36,000. Bond yields also dropped, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 1%, its lowest level in two months. Global Markets: - Global financial markets, including US markets, have been affected by recession fears and weak economic indicators. The Nasdaq Composite has slid into correction territory, reflecting broader market concerns. Conclusion The interplay between BOJ policies and global economic conditions continues to shape the USD/JPY dynamics. The BOJ’s commitment to maintaining low interest rates and engaging in extensive bond purchases influences the yen's value and the broader Japanese economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and traders navigating the complex landscape of forex markets. USD/JPY Historical Movements and Influential Events on JPY Historical Movements of the JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by various historical and economic events. Here are some notable periods and their impacts: 1. Introduction and Early Years (1871 - 1882): - The yen was introduced in 1871 as a modern currency, replacing the diverse local currencies issued by feudal regions. - In 1882, the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centralized control over the currency, standardizing and stabilizing the yen. 2. Post-WWII Era (1945 - 1971): - After WWII, the yen was pegged to the US dollar at 360 yen per USD under the Bretton Woods system. This fixed rate helped stabilize the Japanese economy during its post-war recovery. - The peg was abandoned in 1971, and the yen became a free-floating currency. This shift led to significant volatility, with the yen reaching a high of 271 per USD in 1973. 3. 1980s Economic Boom and 1990s Asset Bubble Collapse: - During the 1980s, Japan's economy boomed, and the yen appreciated significantly. - The collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and deflation, with the BOJ adopting low interest rates to stimulate growth. 4. 2008 Financial Crisis: - The global financial crisis in 2008 saw the yen strengthen as investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened multiple times to prevent excessive appreciation. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - The pandemic caused economic disruptions globally, leading to significant yen volatility. Safe-haven inflows drove the yen's value up, while the BOJ's QE programs aimed to mitigate economic downturns. Key Events Influencing Strong Movements in JPY 1. 1985 Plaza Accord: - An agreement between the G5 nations to depreciate the US dollar relative to the yen and other currencies. This led to a rapid appreciation of the yen, causing significant adjustments in Japan’s economy. 2. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: - The crisis led to a flight to safety, with the yen initially strengthening before the BOJ intervened to stabilize the currency. 3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis: - The yen appreciated as global investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened to prevent excessive yen strength, which could hurt Japan's export-driven economy. 4. 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: - The natural disaster led to a sharp appreciation of the yen, prompting the BOJ and the Japanese government to intervene in the forex market to stabilize the currency. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - Safe-haven demand for the yen increased during the pandemic, but BOJ’s monetary policies, including extensive bond-buying and low interest rates, aimed to support the economy and stabilize the currency. Conclusion The Japanese yen has a rich history of significant fluctuations driven by both domestic policies and global events. The BOJ’s role in stabilizing the yen through various monetary policy tools has been crucial, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Understanding these historical movements and influential events is key for anyone looking to grasp the dynamics of the JPY in the forex market.
Education
by SroshMayi
Japan Confirms Significant Currency InterventionJapan Confirms Currency Intervention Over the Past Month TOKYO—Japan spent 5.535 trillion yen ($36.23 billion) on currency intervention between June 27 and July 29, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. This confirms that Japan engaged in currency intervention again last month, following nearly Y10 trillion spent earlier this year. Market Volatility and Key Levels The price has reached a strong support line at 150.77 and is on the verge of breaking this barrier. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 150.770, potentially reaching 152.850. Bearish Scenario: The bearish trend is confirmed as long as the price remains below the pivot line at 149.870, targeting 148.830 and 147.830. There is also the possibility of a retest up to 150.77 before resuming the downward trend. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 149.870 - Resistance Levels: 150.770, 151.810, 152.840 - Support Levels: 148.850, 147.830, 146.400 Movement Range: The anticipated movement range is between the resistance at 152.850 and the support at 147.830. PREVIOUS IDEA:
Short
by SroshMayi
2
USDJPY: Where is the Support?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵 As a bearish rally on USDJPY continues, the pair keeps violating key historic support levels, one after another. Here are the next significant supports to pay close attention to. Support 1: 140.2 - 141.0 area Support 2: 137.2 - 138.1 area Support 3: 133.0 - 133.9 area Support 4: 129.6 - 130.8 area Support 5: 127.2 - 128.1 area These supports may indicate the levels/zones where the fall may stop. Pay attention to these areas and strictly wait for a strong confirmation before you open any trade. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
USD/JPY Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSD/JPY, after retesting the demand area around $149.000, shows potential for initiating a new bullish impulse. This technical retest suggests the possibility of a fresh upward leg in the pair's price movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we notice significant bullish sentiment among large traders, indicating support for a long position in USD/JPY. This aligns with our supply and demand analysis, which identifies the $149.000 level as a crucial demand zone where buying interest has emerged, providing a solid base for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also favor this bullish outlook. Historically, this period tends to see strength in USD/JPY, adding confidence to our expectation of a new long setup. The combination of the retest of the demand zone, positive COT positioning, and favorable seasonality trends reinforces our anticipation of a bullish continuation. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to enter a long position, expecting further gains from the current levels. This comprehensive approach, considering technical, sentiment, and seasonal factors, supports our strategy for a bullish setup in USD/JPY. Japanese Yes Futures: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
6