GJI am seeing a long sell
DAILY
We have struggled to break the high for the third time, telling us the ceiling is high and filled with sellers. An ascending channel is forming and within it we have another ascending channel which adds to the confluence.
4H
We have a bullish channel in the smaller ascending channel. Where it is also struggling to break the high. 179.80, this gives us ideas of what to do next as we wait on the market open today which will come with the supply.
1H
Impulsive bearish candles, they dragging each other. Let's stay watching 192.20 and see how the trade idea goes.
Jpy
USDJPY D1 - Long SignalUSDJPY D1
A little way away here, but we have a nice confluence retest zone at 152.000. Strong area of previous resistance, now acting as support (hopefully).
Alongside D1 demand which was formed upon the volume witnessed when we broke out upside. Alerts set, waiting patiently.
CADJPY: Follow the breakout or rejection. Low risk trades.CADJPY is just above the bullish barrier on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.297, MACD = 0.230, ADX = 26.548) despite the fact that it is near the HH trendline of the Ascending Triangle and supported at the same time by the 1D MA50. Technically this calls for a decline and the minimum inside this pattern is the 1D MA200 (TP = 109.350). If it crosses over the HH trendline and closes a 1D candle over it, we will go long, aiming at the top of the Channel Up that will prevail (TP = 115.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data?
Japanese inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, but its impact on the market might be subdued. Investors could prefer to pay attention to next week's quarterly growth and price forecasts from the Bank of Japan, which could be the real market movers.
According to sources cited by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is transitioning towards a more flexible approach in its policy decisions, placing less emphasis on inflation targeting.
The upcoming April 25-26 policy meeting will see the release of the Bank's quarterly growth and price projections. This shift in strategy suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a willingness to raise interest rates irrespective of inflation forecasts, which are anticipated to remain around 2.8% or possibly dip slightly to 2.7%.
On the technical side, the USDJPY pair could maintain an upward bias, with buyers potentially pushing it towards the 155.00 mark.
Recent fluctuations in the USDJPY pair have prompted speculation about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. After hitting a new high dating back to 1990 at 154.705, the pair experienced a swift and unusual downturn. Market watchers are closely monitoring the 155.00 level, considered another more likely potential intervention threshold by the Bank of Japan.
Following a dip to 153.890, the pair rebounded towards 154.775, supported by neutral to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at a panel discussion in Washington, highlighted the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation, suggesting the Bank was comfortable with allowing “restrictive policy further time to work”.
GBP/JPY road to 195(4/16/2024)With JPY weakness, GBP/JPY OANDA:GBPJPY is likely heading to the 195.00 zone.
the price made an ABC correction move in the last few days.
We believe the price will continue to move upward after a little correction.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Team Fortuna
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(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
EURJPY to see a temporary move higher?EURJPY - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a top.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
We look to sell rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 165.00 (stop at 165.50)
Our profit targets will be 163.80 and 163.50
Resistance: 165.35 / 167.35 / 168.95
Support: 161.90 / 160.00 / 158.70
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GBPJPY Supported by the 1D MA50.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since late May 2023. Recently it has been rising on a shorter term Channel Up (dotted) supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as it does, we have to stay bullish short-term, targeting the top of the Channel at 195.000.
Since however the blue Channel Up has already completed a symmetrical Higher High leg at +8.24% (similar to the August 22 2023 Higher High), we face a technical necessity for a strong pull-back. We are willing to take this sell only if the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50. When it does, we will take the loss on the buy and short towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), targeting 186.500.
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Usdjpy clearly up the upsideHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Likely this would be a trending up pair, but do keep a look out for any intervention. Frankly BOJ could be looking to intervene, and by then you should see big movement on UJ. Trade this pair carefully!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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USDJPY:Evaluating Buying Prospects Amidst Hawkish Fed indicatorsTraders,
In today's trading session, our sights are set on USDJPY, where we anticipate a potential buying opportunity around the 153.500 zone. USDJPY remains entrenched in an uptrend, presently undergoing a correction phase as it nears the pivotal support and resistance area at 153.500.
Diving deeper into our analysis, let's explore the fundamental landscape shaping USDJPY's trajectory. Recent economic indicators, notably the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, have illuminated the strength of the US economy.
The latest NFP figures showcased robust job creation, surpassing expectations and signaling economic resilience. This positive employment data has bolstered confidence in the US dollar, potentially driving USDJPY higher.
Additionally, the CPI data revealed an uptick in inflation, exceeding market forecasts and highlighting growing price pressures. Such inflationary trends may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance in its monetary policy approach. A shift towards tightening monetary policy could further bolster the US dollar's strength, providing tailwinds for USDJPY.
Considering these fundamental factors alongside the technical uptrend, the potential buying opportunity in USDJPY around 153.500 presents an enticing prospect for traders.
Trade prudently,
Joe
How much higher can the USDJPY go?Yen weakness despite...
BoJ Exited negative rates regime
Increasing geopolitical uncertainty
Gold at historic highs of 2430
In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese Yen continuing to show signs of weakness.
Could 155 be the next target price level for an intervention?
FOREX Pre-Week Analysis by R2F (Monday, 15th April 2024)Hello hello, guys!
We have a new week ahead. Here is my analysis for my bias moving forward. For those who are lazy, I am basically bullish on the Dollar and bearish for XXXUSD pairs. But I suggest going through the video as I explain how I came to this bias as well as offer analysis for each of the major Forex pairs.
We are in turbulent times, so trade safe out there. Protecting your capital is your NO.1 priority. It is not the time to go turbo mode all-in kamikaze style.
- R2F
Potential bearish reversalGBP/JPY is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 191.495
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss: 192.562
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 190.101
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level
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EURJPY possible ideaAfter price broke daily high with momentum, it retraced back down and formed liquidity above an established golden zone. It left behind a huge imbalance that it could potentially fill before pushing the the upside to take out the latest weak high since price is in an overall bullish trend.
GBPJPY just about ready for actionAfter price broke daily high with momentum, it retraced back down and formed liquidity above an established golden zone. It left behind a huge imbalance that it could potentially fill before pushing the the upside to take out the latest weak high since price is in an overall bullish trend.
GBPJPY Breakout and Potential retraceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring GBPJPY for a selling opportunity around 191.250 zone, GBPJPY was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 191.250 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDJPY Long/Short Idea for WK16I’ll closely monitor price movements at the start of the upcoming week. If the price reacts around 99.500 FVG, I’ll be on the lookout for long positions if price makes CHoCH upside.
If we dip below 98.180, I’ll consider short positions.
Additionally, there are two news events scheduled for next week: Tuesday and Thursday
Yen Traders Tread Cautiously as Japan Hints at InterventionAnxiety hangs heavy over the yen market. With the Japanese currency hovering near a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar, traders are wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. This comes as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen.
The Yen's Slide: A Perfect Storm
The yen's recent decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors:
• Divergent Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve are aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This widening interest rate differential makes the dollar a more attractive investment compared to the yen.
• Global Risk Aversion: As geopolitical tensions and concerns about a global economic slowdown escalate, investors are seeking refuge in dollar-denominated assets, further weakening the yen.
• Japan's Trade Dependence: Japan relies heavily on imports for essential resources like energy and food. A weaker yen makes these imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation within Japan.
Verbal Intervention: A Warning Shot
Finance Minister Suzuki's recent statements can be seen as a warning shot to currency markets. He emphasized the government's "deep concern" about the yen's depreciation and hinted at the possibility of intervention if excessive volatility persists.
However, the effectiveness of verbal intervention is debatable. Without concrete action, traders might remain skeptical.
Intervention: A Double-Edged Sword
Direct intervention in the currency market involves the Japanese government selling dollars and buying yen to artificially strengthen the currency. While this can achieve short-term results, it comes with drawbacks:
• Costly Defense: Intervention can be expensive, draining Japan's foreign currency reserves.
• Market Distortion: Heavy intervention can distort market forces and create uncertainty for traders.
• Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of intervention depends on the size of the intervention and the broader economic backdrop. If underlying economic fundamentals favoring a weaker yen persist, intervention might have only a temporary impact.
Traders on Edge: Waiting for the Next Move
Yen traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode. They are closely monitoring the Japanese government's actions and statements, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, for any signs that could influence the yen's direction.
The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act
The future path of the yen will be determined by several factors:
• The BOJ's Monetary Policy: Any change in the BOJ's stance, even a hint of a future rate hike, could strengthen the yen. However, the BOJ is expected to remain dovish for the foreseeable future.
• Global Risk Sentiment: If global risk aversion eases, investors might be less inclined to seek refuge in the dollar, potentially aiding the yen.
• The Effectiveness of Intervention: If Japan intervenes in the currency market and does so decisively, it might provide temporary support to the yen.
Conclusion: A Fragile Currency in Uncertain Times
The outlook for the yen remains uncertain. While the Japanese government may intervene to curb its rapid depreciation, the effectiveness of such strategies is limited without addressing the underlying economic factors. The future direction of the yen will likely hinge on global economic developments and the monetary policy decisions of major central banks.
GBP/JPY: A Closer Look at Growing Momentum - SHORTAnalyzing market trends and identifying potential opportunities is crucial for making informed decisions. One such opportunity currently presenting itself is the bearish setup on GBP/JPY, indicating a significant shift in momentum.
As the price of GBP/JPY reached the 193.000 value, it coincided with the 78.8% Fibonacci level, marking a critical point of confluence. This convergence suggests a strong resistance level, indicating a potential reversal in the upward trend.
Analyzing the price action and technical indicators, it appears that a bearish impulse is likely to follow. The confirmation of this downward movement is supported by our previous analysis of this currency pair, which highlighted 189.000 as the first target for a bearish trend.
This analysis underscores the importance of understanding key technical levels and their significance in predicting market movements. The confluence of the 193.000 value with the 78.8% Fibonacci level serves as a strong indication of impending bearish momentum.
Traders and investors should closely monitor the price action of GBP/JPY in the coming days, as it is likely to follow a downward trajectory towards the 189.000 target.
Our Previous Idea
AUDJPY - Are You Ready⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 AUDJPY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge pattern in blue.
Currently, AUDJPY is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover , it is retesting a strong demand in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #AUDJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GBPJPY - Trend-Following Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 GBPJPY has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue.
Currently, GBPJPY is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GBPJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich