Is the Yen Set for a Comeback? Analyzing EUR/JPY,GBP/JPY,CHF/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) has been one of the weakest currencies in the past three years, with some pairs experiencing a significant 70-80% devaluation, particularly against CHF, EUR, and GBP (CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY).
However, since reaching a low in early July, the JPY has shown signs of reversing.
When looking at the JPY Index (see posted chart), we can observe that the price recently broke above the falling resistance line within its downward channel.
After initially stalling at resistance, as marked by a bearish Pin Bar, the subsequent fall lacked continuation and instead reversed upwards.
Currently, the JPY is on the verge of a significant breakout.
If this breakout occurs, the technical target for the next mid-term move is around 860, which would represent a potential 10% appreciation for the Yen.
Key JPY Crosses to Watch:
EUR/JPY:
After breaking out of its rising channel, EUR/JPY confirmed the breakout as valid and has begun a downward trajectory. Yesterday's strong bearish engulfing candlestick suggests that further downside is highly likely. A possible first target could be the 150 zone.
GBP/JPY:
GBP/JPY attempted to recover above its broken support but failed to hold those gains. Like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY also printed a strong bearish engulfing pattern yesterday.
This suggests a lower high may now be in place, with potential downside targets around 178.50, followed by the 170 zone, which seems a strong possibility.
CHF/JPY:
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CHF/JPY has seen one of the largest devaluations of the Yen, amounting to almost 80%. The top in this pair was marked by a head & shoulders pattern, and the price is currently sitting at the neckline. A break below this level seems imminent, with 160 being a likely target. If the correction deepens, we could even see a move toward the 151 level.
Conclusion:
These are long-term predictions, and I anticipate these movements to materialize by the end of the year.
P.S: Stay updated on these charts as conditions evolve. These predictions are based on technical analysis and market patterns for long term, so monitoring changes is crucial.
Best Of Luck!
Mihai Iacob
Jpy
AUDJPY Excellent long-term Buy Entry. Double Bottom may happen.The last signal we gave on the AUDJPY pair (July 02, see chart below) couldn't have a better timing as the price was rejected on the very same day just when it hit the Sell Zone and in 3 weeks hit the 101.000 Target:
The price even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but found Support exactly on the bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up (on today's chart we made the necessary adjustments to fit the Higher Highs) and more importantly, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Last week's rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), serves as a reminder that a Double Bottom might be required before the Channel Up confirms the start of the new Bullish Leg. At least this is what happened on the March 20 2023 and November 29 2021 Lows (we had a 1W MA50 rejection for 5 straight months during February 2023).
As a result, another touch of the 1W RSI on its 3-year Buy Zone will confirm the new long-term uptrend and we will turn bullish, targeting 114.000 (+26.70% rise, similar to the last two Bullish Legs).
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USD Recovery Gains Momentum Ahead of Core PPI and Unemployment..As the market gears up for the release of key economic indicators such as the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, the USD has shown signs of recovery. This rebound began yesterday and has continued into today’s London session, where the USD/JPY pair is trading around 143.50 as I write this article.
The pair’s recent movement follows a strong carry trade impact on the JPY, which caused the price to drop significantly from the 162 level to where we find it today. However, the USD/JPY has encountered a demand zone, showing signs of potential stabilization. Supporting this outlook is the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are still predominantly short on the pair, while fund managers have begun adding to their long positions, signaling a possible shift in sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, this setup presents a favorable opportunity for a long position, aligning with forecasts we've been tracking over the last two weeks. The pair's current price action and its position near the demand zone suggest the potential for a reversal.
Today’s economic releases will be crucial in determining the next move for the USD/JPY. The data could provide further clarity on the USD’s recovery path and offer a better understanding of the broader market environment. For now, traders eyeing long positions will be watching the news closely, awaiting confirmation of the technical and fundamental cues aligning for the pair.
JPY Futures - Weekly Chart.
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USDJPY Is Approaching an Important SupportHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around 141.500 zone, USDJPY is trading within a channel and currently is approaching the channel support, once we get a bullish confirmation a target would be somewhere around 146 as it's the strongest resistance USDJPY will be approaching.
Trade safe, Joe.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.06
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 147.311
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 141.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce?EUR/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could reverse to the overlap resistance.
Pivot: 155.90
1st Support: 153.30
1st Resistance: 159.41
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPJPY outlook GBPJPY has made a beautiful move lastly the overall trend on higher time frames is bullish but on H1 i am feeling like gold will get a dip if it breaks above this recent high and present a price action candle we will buy this pair as it reaches its recent weekly Resistance level if it breaks above it will be a buy to its global resistance or it will be a sell to recent resistance became support
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting of the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 143.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 144.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 141.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 38.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 89.88
1st Support: 88.23
1st Resistance: 91.03
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 2-6 : USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 2-6th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
JPY Currency Index 4H Analysis: Potential Consolidation and Key The chart shows the JPY Currency Index on a 4-hour timeframe, where the market is currently trading around the 766.9 level. Based on the price action, there appears to be a clear formation of potential consolidation after a sharp move upward.
Key Observations:
Uptrend Momentum: The index previously experienced a strong uptrend, pushing the price to the 794.1 level, as indicated by the steep price increase.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The area around 740 acts as a significant support zone, where price is likely to test if the index continues its correction phase.
Resistance: The zone around 780 is a key resistance level that the index needs to break to continue its upward momentum.
EMA Crossover: The moving averages show bullish momentum, though some consolidation and pullback are expected before further upward movement.
Potential Consolidation: The projected pattern on the chart suggests the possibility of a sideways consolidation between 740 and 780 before any significant breakout. This could lead to a pullback toward the 740 support level before another bullish push towards the resistance at 780.
RSI Indicator: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows mixed signals with both bull and bear indications, suggesting that while the market has had strong bullish pressure, the current overbought condition might result in short-term corrections.
Expected Price Movement:
The chart outlines a potential scenario where the price consolidates within the 740-780 range. A break above the 780 resistance could lead to a new bullish wave, possibly revisiting the previous high near 794. However, if the price breaks below the 740 support, a deeper retracement is possible.
This setup presents a potential range-bound trade for short-term traders, with clear breakouts or breakdowns providing potential trade signals.
EURJPY Buy opportunity only if the 1D MA50 breaks.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the March 07 2022 bottom. The start of July saw it experience a strong correction, technically the latest Bearish Leg of the pattern that broke below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 20 2023 and hit the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since March 07 2022!
The 1W MA100 held, which confirmed its status as the multi-year Support but the rebound was short-lived as, even though it marginally broke above the 1W MA50, it failed to close a candle above it.
As a result, this will be our signal to buy, a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50. Once the bullish break-out takes place, our Target will be 182.000, which represents a +19.50% rise from the Higher Low, which is the % growth of both previous Bullish Legs within the Channel Up.
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Bullish reversal?EUR/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 157.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 155.94
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 160.41
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CHFJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring CHFJPY for a selling opportunity around 170.800 zone, CHFJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 170.800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Could USD/JPY reverse from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.07
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 143.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 146.48
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USD/JPY: 50% Retracement in Play Arif Husain, the head of fixed income at T. Rowe, is cautioning that volatility threatens the Japanese yen. Husain suggests that the yen carry trade has been unfairly blamed for what may actually be the onset of a larger, more complex trend. The Bank of Japan’s monetary tightening and its broader impact on global capital flows are intricate issues. A significant amount of Japanese capital invested overseas could potentially be repatriated as domestic interest rates rise.
Adding to the yen’s momentum, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed on Tuesday that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic and inflationary conditions align with its expectations. This statement further bolstered the yen's strength.
As the U.S. trading session begins, USD/JPY is testing the 50% retracement level of the August range. The pair may continue to face downward pressure due to the BoJ’s hawkish stance, even amid the general strength of the U.S. dollar in the broader market.
Waiting for +300Pip trade in EUR/JPY(09/03/2024)after a long run in the last few weeks, EUR/JPY corrected smoothly and finally gave us to jump in some trades.
if you watch closely the price has reached the daily OB and moved sharply upward, this kind of move has made a CHOCH indicating the overall correction on Daily OB has been ended and the price is likely heading upward.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Bearish reversal?AUD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 98.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 96.85
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support.
Take profit: 101.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.