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Tokyo Inflation to trigger yen Intervention? But at what price?Recent remarks made by Masato Kanda, Japan's vice-finance minister for international affairs, have led to heightened cautiousness regarding potential actions by authorities to support the yen through intervention. The USD/JPY has comfortably surpassed the 150.000 threshold, which historically has prompting interventions by the Bank of Japan to limit the weakness in the yen. This precedent was observed in 2022 when the currency reached 151.950 against the US dollar. But have the intervention goal posts moved? Maybe only slightly. Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model suggests a selling strategy for USD/JPY if it crosses 152.20. Anticipated inflation data for Tokyo, scheduled for release later this week, could serve as a potential trigger for intervention. A higher-than-expected reading may positively impact the JPY, indicating bullish sentiment and potentially help the BoJ avoid the need to intervene. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated figure could exert a bearish influence on the JPY.
by BlackBull_Markets
Long USDJPY as Bank of Japan Raises Rates!The hedge fund industry's short weakness on the yen is creating a fantastic opportunity for us to long USDJPY! As the Bank of Japan prepares to raise rates, now is the perfect time to capitalize on this trend and potentially make some significant profits. The recent weakness in hedge fund shorts on the yen has created a favorable environment for us to take advantage of. With the Bank of Japan signaling a potential rate hike shortly, the USDJPY pair is poised for a strong upward movement. This is a golden opportunity for us to get in on the action and potentially ride the wave of a bullish trend. I urge you all to consider taking a long position on USDJPY and seize this opportunity to potentially profit from the upcoming rate hike. Don't miss out on this chance to make some serious gains in the forex market! Let's make the most of this exciting opportunity and maximize our potential profits together. Get ready to long USDJPY and ride the wave of success as the Bank of Japan raises rates! www.hedgeweek.com
Long
by bryandowningqln
EURJPY Approaching Channel Up top. Bearish signal.The EURJPY pair is very close to our 168.000 Target that we set on our last analysis (December 13 2023, see chart below): That is at the top of the 2-year Channel Up that started on the March 07 2022 Low. Technically after that, it calls for a short-term trend-reversal. As a result we modify the bullish Target to 167.400 and then will go for a short-term sell, targeting 164.500. This is because we have identified a short-term RSI bearish divergence pattern, which when the RSI in on Lower Highs and the pair on Higher Highs (i.e. Bearish Divergence), the price rises to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and then pulls back to the 1.0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Building The Case For The BIG Yen Reversal?? (Coming Soon)Unless you've been living under a rock the last few years you have seen the massive depreciation in the Japanese Yen against every other major currency pair in this post I'm going to share with you why I think the BIG reversal in fast approaching. This post is much like the post I did on the CHF at the beginning of the Year where I correctly predicted a major correction (see related post) where every single CHF pair had reached key higher timeframe support levels and buy zones at the same time. A similar story is occurring in the major JPY cross pairs also at the same time we have the BOJ finally ending negative rates and hinting of more possible rate hikes this Year whilst other central banks are talking about cutting rates with the SNB leading the race last week. First off is the USDJPY you can see on the Monthly chart where 152 is acting as a key resistance level that goes all the way back to 1990 this is a key technical level. Next is the GBPJPY I did a post on this last week about the likelihood of a sell off from the 193 Monthly resistance level (see image below) Then we have the AUDJPY which the 100 mark last week which is approaching a key resistance zone @101 above this zone has seen massive corrections in the past (see image below) Next is the NZDJPY which I done a post on several months ago showing you the importance of the 93 resistance and the likelihood of a correction from this level which the chart below shows we got a rally to here followed by a sell off. Next is the EURJPY which last week got the break above 165 before selling off shortly back below last years high of 164 the chart below shows 2 key resistance areas here @164 and @167 where we have seen massive sell offs before. As you can see all the major pairs are at or approaching key Monthly resistance levels and sell zones where there have been huge corrections from in the past. To me this is a massive correlation across all the major pairs and very much indicating that a change in the tide is coming very soon. This very much is mimicking exactly what happened with the CHF pairs this year. Will the same happen with the JPY pairs only time will tell but it's looking very good there are several ways to trade this build into sell positions across all pairs off course this can increase your risk exposure and off course swap fees or you can trade yen futures. Off course the timing of this reversal is the hard part as it's the Monthly charts could take several months to play out or more. And then there is the possibility that I am wrong and the YEN weakens more and all these major levels get blown out at the same time :) Let me know what you think in the comments :)
Short
by TheFxAce
8
This week’s 4 major trading eventsIn the United States, traders are awaiting insights from Federal Reserve policymakers, particularly Chief Jerome Powell, scheduled to speak on Friday. Fed members Bostic and Cook will also appear on Monday. Economic data in Europe will be limited this week due to the Easter break, with major bourses closed for Good Friday and Easter Monday. Perhaps the only event of note is ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking on Monday. In Japan, attention will be focused on minutes from the BoJ's recent meeting and the Summary of Opinions for insights into potential follow-up actions following the historic interest rate hike seen last week. In Australia, February’s inflation rate expectations for March, as well as consumer confidence, are expected to fall. Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance and seize trading opportunities (see below for link)
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
EurJpy at a level to watchHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Trend on the jpy crosses were mostly to the upside, pullback was seen on last thur,fri, currently lets see how the trendline and key support holds. will it propel it higher? This is same for EJ. UJ has a potential double tops.not confirmed yet though Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Decoding USD/JPY Future in a Changing Economic Landscape Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis for USD/JPY 1. Monthly Time Frame: - Key Observation: Noticeable rejection of the USD/JPY price at a significant support level, indicating potential bullish sentiment or a reversal point. - Additional Note: High liquidity observed at price highs, marked by two equal highs, which could signify resistance zones. 2. Weekly Time Frame: - Key Observation: Transition in market structure from bearish to bullish, indicating a potential longer-term upward trend for USD/JPY. 3. Daily Time Frame: - Key Observation: A shift in market sentiment is evident, aligning with the bullish outlook observed in the weekly timeframe. Fundamental Analysis: Federal Reserve Policies and Economic Indicators 1. Federal Reserve's Stance: - Policy Outlook: Continuation of a restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future, with the possibility of rate peaks being reached. - Inflation Control: Strong emphasis on reducing inflation sustainably before policy easing. 2. Economic Indicators: - Optimism on Inflation: Growing confidence in managing inflation, with potential rate cuts envisioned in 2024, though the exact timing remains uncertain. 3. Market Reaction: - Impact on USD/JPY: The Federal Reserve's stance typically has a direct impact on USD/JPY. A more restrictive policy tends to strengthen the USD against the JPY, while a more dovish stance or rate cuts could weaken it. 4. Future Projections: - Interest Rate Trajectory: Anticipation of three rate cuts in 2024, suggesting a potential future weakening of the USD against the JPY. - Economic Growth Forecast: Slow growth expected in 2024, which could influence currency strength dynamics. 5. USD/JPY Specifics: - Japanese Economic Factors: Apart from U.S. economic indicators, USD/JPY traders should also consider Japan's economic health, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors influencing the yen. Trading Implications for USD/JPY - Short-Term Strategy: The bullish technical signals on higher timeframes suggest potential long positions in the short to medium term. However, be mindful of resistance levels highlighted by the liquidity at price highs. - Long-Term Outlook: Fundamental analysis indicates potential weakening of the USD in 2024 due to anticipated rate cuts. Traders may look for signs of trend reversal or strengthening of the JPY for future positioning. - Risk Management: Keep an eye on upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and announcements, U.S. economic data releases, and Japanese economic indicators. These can cause significant volatility in the USD/JPY pair. Conclusion For USD/JPY, the current technical analysis suggests a bullish trend in the near term, but fundamental factors indicate potential shifts in 2024. You should maintain a balanced approach, staying updated with economic developments and central bank policies in both the U.S. and Japan. As with any currency trading, risk management and continual reassessment of the market conditions are crucial.
Long
by Wiiso
Will EURJPY bearish momentum stall?EURJPY - Intraday Price action looks to be forming a top. A lower correction is expected. Short term bias is bullish. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 163.40 level. We look to Buy at 163.40 (stop at 162.30) Our profit targets will be 164.40 and 164.70 Resistance: 167.35 / 168.95 / 171.20 Support: 161.90 / 160.00 / 158.70 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
Buy AUDJPY Bullish ChannelThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing buying pressure and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming minutes or hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) around the current price of 97.77, positioned near the channel support. This offers an entry point close to potential buying pressure. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones: 98.21 and 98.44. Further upside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 97.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price breaks down and invalidates the bullish pattern. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
USD/JPY at Critical Juncture: Evaluating Peaks and Intervention The USD/JPY has surged to multi-year highs in the 151.000s amid a broader strengthening of the US Dollar and shifting trade dynamics, exerting downward pressure on the Japanese Yen. Currently positioned at 151.590, the pair finds itself within a robust resistance zone, hinting at a potential retracement following the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. As the USD/JPY approaches a critical intervention zone, historically monitored by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for FX market stabilization, there arises a likelihood of resistance to further appreciation. This intervention zone, noted by analysts at MUFG, underscores the BoJ's proactive stance in curbing excessive Yen weakness beyond the 150.000 threshold. The proximity to this intervention zone implies a possible inflection point for the USD/JPY, suggesting a pending reversal or consolidation in the near term. Such dynamics highlight the intricate interplay between central bank interventions and market sentiment, shaping the trajectory of currency pairs like the USD/JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Post-BOJToday's focus: GBPJPY Pattern – Continuation/resistance test? Support – 188.20 Resistance – 191.15 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the GBPJPY daily. The BOJ lifted rates today to 0.10%, breaking the run of negative rates and showing a change in direction not seen since 2007. The BOJ also advised an end to yield curve control and ETF purchases. This had a negative effect on the JPY and sent majors higher. The GBPJPY has added up to 0.73% in today's session and has come close to testing resistance. We want to see a break of resistance to show a new continuation higher. A stall at resistance could set up a new move lower. If we see a new move to 190 and above, could we see the BOJ step in? Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
NZDJPY to continue in the downward move?NZDJPY - 24h expiry Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 90.60 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 90.40. We look to Sell at 91.00 (stop at 91.25) Our profit targets will be 90.35 and 90.15 Resistance: 90.75 / 91.00 / 91.25 Support: 90.50 / 90.40 / 90.25 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Technical Update - GBPJPY testing 190, likely resuming uptrend The GBPJPY pair is testing the 0.618 retracement at 190.04. The RSI shows positive sentiment and has broken above its falling trendline, indicating that GBPJPY is likely to break above the 0.618 retracement and move higher. If the RSI closes back above the 60 thresholds, GBPJPY is likely to break above the February peak at 191.33 and move towards the 1.382 projections at 192.61. A close below 187.85 will reverse the bullish scenario and push GBPJPY lower to 186.17
by Saxo
Technical Update - USDJPY testing key resitance The USDJPY pair has rebounded to the 0.618 retracement and key resistance at around 149.20. If it is rejected and fails to close above, the pair could slide back to 148.15 possibly lower. A daily close above 149.20 level indicates short-term potential to reach the February peak at around 150.84, with the 2022 peak at 151.95 also in sight. The RSI is showing negative sentiment, suggesting that USDJPY is likely to be rejected at the 149.20 resistance. However, an RSI close above the 60 thresholds would change this outlook
by Saxo
AUDJPY possible dropAfter price broke structure to the downside with momentum, it preceded to retrace back towards a very extreme supply zone that it left behind during the expansion. It has currently formed liquidity below this supply zone that it could use to fuel its move further to the downside to break the recently formed weak low. The reason a short would be ideal now is because although we are bullish on larger time frames, we are currently bearish on lower time frames and are riding the retracement of the larger higher time frame move.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades