Pullback resistance ahead?NZD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 91.37
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 92.38
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 90.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Jpy
EUR/JPY Bearish Setup: Supply Zone Rejects, New Lows in Sight!After a significant bearish move, price is consolidating and appears to be respecting the supply zone, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.
Support Levels:
Immediate target support at 162.263.
Extended target at 160.207.
A potential bearish scenario with price rejecting the supply zone, targeting the mentioned support levels.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 162.263 (first support level).
TP2: 160.207 (extended support level).
GBPJPY SELL IDEAThis is just my idea, if you're just starting out its important for you to stick with your own analyst. I don't care if your setup is dead wrong... Learn from it, adjust and try again.
I'm waiting for a breakout to the downside to enter again.
I have 2 targets inmind:
195.886 and 197.000
Once they get reach, I'll look for breakouts to the downside.
I'm looking at 189.858 for my TP .
Previous entry: 199.500 to 195.886.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 154.69
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 155.23
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 153.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURJPY | MarketoutlookThe policy divergence between the US Fed and SNB supports the pair at lower levels.
Jobless claims dropped to 227,000 for the week ending October 19, down from 242,000 the week before, suggesting some stability in the labor market. The four-week moving average rose by 6,750, reaching 231,000, which indicates that jobless claims are still showing fluctuations despite the recent decline.
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 47.8 in October, up from 47.3 in September. However, this still shows that manufacturing activity is contracting for the fourth month in a row. On the other hand, the Flash Services PMI rose to 51.5, indicating modest growth in the services sector, which is important since it makes up a large part of the U.S. economy.
USD/JPY: USD Faces Correction Ahead of Key Retail Sales DataThe Japanese Yen has strengthened as the US Dollar begins to correct downward in anticipation of upcoming Retail Sales data. Japan's GDP annualized growth for the third quarter was reported at 0.9%, a notable decline from the 2.2% growth seen in the second quarter. In response to currency market volatility, Japan’s Finance Minister Kato emphasized his commitment to taking necessary measures to counter excessive fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.
From a technical analysis perspective, the current price indicates a rebound in an area where multiple supply zones converge, suggesting the potential for a pullback of the USD against the JPY. Retail traders continue to show a bullish stance towards the US Dollar, while other market participants appear uncertain or bearish in their outlook.
Given the significant rally in the USD that followed the Trump election victory, we are observing for a possible correction. As these dynamics play out, attention to price patterns and broader economic indicators will be essential for traders navigating this market environment.
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USD/JPY is still in its upward trendBy examining the trend in the one-hour time frame, USD/JPY has an important support range in the range of 153.38-154.02.
In general, this scenario is reinforced that USD/JPY can increase in price up to the resistance of the channel ceiling in the range of 158.08, provided that there is no closing of the four-hour candle time below the important support interval in the range of 153.38-154.02.
USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500).
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GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the correction continues to the support range, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Breaking the resistance range will pave the way for this currency pair to continue its rise.
Pension Reforms in the UK
• Consolidation of Local Government Pension Schemes:
Rachel Reeves, the UK Treasury Secretary, aims to merge local government pension schemes into larger funds (megafunds). This initiative involves pooling the assets of 86 local government pension schemes into a large fund managed by professional investment managers.
• Objective: To increase investment in long-term, high-risk assets, reduce management costs, and strengthen investment in infrastructure and local areas.
• Further Reforms: In addition, Reeves plans to make changes to financial arbitration services and the combined stock market, marking “the most significant pension reforms in decades.”
Inflation Outlook and Interest Rates in the UK
• Comments from Bank of England Member, Mann:
Bank of England member, Mann, warned that substantial volatility in macroeconomic indicators will be seen in the coming years. He suggests that inflation may remain high for an extended period, necessitating a higher neutral rate. Additionally, he noted that lower interest rates compared to high inflation would put more pressure on investments.
Japan’s Support Package and Economic Stimulus
• Budget and Household Support:
The Japanese government has planned a supplementary budget of 13.5 trillion yen (87 billion USD) to fund an economic stimulus package. This budget includes a payment of 30,000 yen to low-income households and 20,000 yen per child in households with children.
• Energy Subsidies: The government will also reintroduce electricity and gas subsidies from January for three months to help households cope with rising fuel and service costs.
Financial Risks and Supervision by the Bank of Japan
• Concerns About Non-Bank Financial Institutions:
The Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor, Uchida, warned that increased connections between non-bank financial institutions and banks could pose risks to the entire financial system. He emphasized that non-bank institutions handle almost half of global financial intermediation, which requires close attention.
Actions for Stability in Japan’s Currency Market
• Currency Market Intervention:
Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated that appropriate measures will be taken to control severe and one-sided fluctuations in the currency market if necessary. He stressed the importance of sustainable exchange rate movements in line with fundamental principles.
Buy NZD/JPY Descending Triangle The NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 91.65
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 92.11
2nd Resistance – 92.34
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AUD/JPY Approaching Key Breakdown: Will the Bulls Hold the Line?AUD/JPY is trading within a converging wedge pattern, showing a potential downside setup. The price is approaching a crucial support level marked by the red ascending trendline. This support has held multiple times in recent sessions, but any break below it could open the way for further losses.
The pair is also testing resistance at the upper boundary of the wedge. A rejection from this area may push prices downward towards the ascending trendline, where a break could lead to a deeper fall, targeting the blue horizontal support near 100.000.
If AUD/JPY breaks below 100.000, it could trigger a bearish continuation, suggesting a move toward the 99.510 level or lower. Conversely, if bulls defend the trendline, the price could attempt a reversal within the wedge, aiming for a retest of recent highs.
USDJPY Bullish Cross on 1W MACD will push it higher.The USDJPY pair is having an excellent bullish run since our September 25 buy signal (see chart below), which was right at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
We're approaching our 161.800 long-term Target much faster than we expected but we've identified this time a short-term opportunity that can go along with the long-term one. We are past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and when the previous Bullish Leg formed one on Aptil 14 2023, the price (which was already within a Channel Up) didn't stop the uptrend. On the contrary it extended it up until a little after a 1D Golden Cross was formed.
As a result we can target additionally 160.000 within a 2-month time-frame.
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USDJPY - Will the yen continue to weaken?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those two zones with the appropriate risk reward.
John Thune, the senator from South Dakota, has been elected as the Republican Senate Majority Leader. This election received broad support from Trump-aligned Republicans, though some factions within the GOP, particularly the far-right, were less welcoming of the choice. In this race, Thune faced competition from John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, although Scott was not seen as a significant threat. Thune ultimately won in a direct, closed-ballot vote against Cornyn, securing the Senate leadership position.
Moody’s has announced that financial risks concerning the United States’ fiscal strength have escalated. In a statement, Moody’s highlighted the outlook on U.S. national debt, identifying the “decisive victory of Republicans” as a specific risk factor. Moody’s stated, “In the absence of policy measures to curb the budget deficit, federal fiscal strength will deteriorate, increasingly impacting the U.S. sovereign credit profile.”
Given the fiscal policies promised by Trump during his election campaign—and the high likelihood of their passage due to the shift in Congress—U.S. fiscal strength-related risks have increased. While Trump’s victory has been seen as positive for certain risk assets, it has had negative implications for bonds.
Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan official indicated that Japan is not currently in need of extensive financial support, allowing the central bank to resume interest rate hikes after a brief pause to assess U.S. economic developments.
Another Bank of Japan member warned that raising rates could cause market shocks, disrupting the normalization path of Japan’s monetary policies, as the divergence in policy directions between the U.S. and Japan could heighten foreign exchange market volatility. Additionally, one member emphasized the need to be prepared for potential market fluctuations due to the U.S. presidential election results.
Could the price reverse from here?CAD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse 1st support.
Pivot: 111.75
1st Support: 110.60
1st Resistance: 112.21
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?EUR/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 164.95
1st Support: 163.45
1st Resistance: 165.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 198.26
1st Support: 196.76
1st Resistance: 196.61
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The yen continued to lose value as the dollar strengthened
The Japanese yen has dropped to its lowest since late July due to the dollar's strength. Concerns about rising US inflation following Trump's election have diminished the likelihood of the Fed’s further rate cuts. However, if the yen's decline continues, the BoJ may consider intervening in the FX rate and could become more inclined to raise interest rates. Reflecting this situation, Japan's five-year government bond yields have reached a 15-year high as the chances of a BoJ rate hike increase.
USDJPY sustained its uptrend and advanced to 155.70. The price is approaching the ascending channel’s upper bound, maintaining bullish momentum. If USDJPY breaches the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward 157.50, the highest since last July. Conversely, if USDJPY fails to hold above EMA21, the price may fall further to 153.10, where EMA78 coincides.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?AUD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 101.56
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 102.37
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 100.34
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.