NZD/JPY Daily Setup The NZD/JPY currency pair is currently experiencing a healthy pullback following a significant decline of 1600 pips over the past 26 days. My key area of interest is around the 89.950 level due to several converging factors. These include a rejection point at 89.948, an ascending trendline originating from August 2023, the 0.786 level on the daily Bearish Fibonacci retracement, the psychological round number of 89.950, a descending trendline that started in March 2024, and the overall market structure.
Regarding the JPY Basket, it is also undergoing a pullback after advancing 38% over the last 25 days. I anticipate that the JPY Basket will react and potentially face rejection around the 6437 level.
JPYBASKET
JPY Basket Daily TF
The JPY Basket is now rejecting off my point of interest (POI) after a bullish run lasting seven days. If the price re-enters the bearish channel, it will confirm a false breakout. Once the JPY Basket closes back within the channel, it is expected to resume its bearish trend and potentially reach a new low.
JPY Basket Daily TF Following today's news, the JPY Basket has surged dramatically. I anticipate a decline when it reaches my target level of 5,788, where multiple factors suggest a potential reversal. Upon reaching this key area, I will be closely monitoring EUR/USD and GBP/USD for further developments.
EURJPY SHORT - Long the strong, short the weak.Hi all,
This week I am sharing my play on EURJPY.
With JPYBASKET showing both accumulation and some weakness (another liquidity grab today), with Japan Bank saying - increasing interest rates is an option now, with strong long positions on JPY by commercial banks and short positions advantage on EUR, the EURJPY pair is my safest pair to trade this week.
I am both managing a major short there and scalping the range to the downside.
I am expecting return to 168.1 - 168.2 area at minimum!
Good luck and play safe!
AUDJPY M30 / Possible Retracement Until the Price of 96.900💲💡 Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to AUDJPY M30. At the moment, the AJ reacted from the FIB level, and most probably, it will retrace till the price of 96.900.
I will look for a short entry in case of confirmation.
Traders, if my proposal resonates with you or if you hold a divergent viewpoint regarding this trade, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. I welcome the opportunity to hear your perspectives.
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NZDJPY M30 / Long Trade Idea Intraday✅ Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to NZDJPY M30. I expect to see a bullish move until the price of 91.600. The JPY Basket is still bearish and I consider this argument an opportunity to look for a long entry on NZDJPY. Mos probable the price will hit the OB level.
Traders, if my proposal resonates with you or if you hold a divergent viewpoint regarding this trade, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. I welcome the opportunity to hear your perspectives.
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NZDJPY M30 / Short Trade Opportunity 💲Hello Traders!
- SHORT TRADE EXECUTION -
This is my idea related to NZDJPY M30. I see that the trend is going bearish, and I expect that the PDL or BOSS will be taken. My target is the OB level at M30 tf.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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AUDJPY M30 / NEW Forecast / Expecting a Bearish Move 📉Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to AudJpy M30. I expect a bearish move on Monday, and I will look for a short trade entry if confirmed. As an objective, I want to see a move until the BOSS level.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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USDJPY; Zen and the art of economic cycle maintenanceThe Yen and thus, the Bank of Japan, is in a rather precarious position.
(Then again, when was the last time they weren't - in a precarious position?? ... .)
Admittedly, our Japanese is somewhat rusty lately but nowhere in the monetary manual did we find where it says: "Lending rates must be fixed at <0% or >10%, at all times!"
So, when the BoJ hangs it's hat on some arbitrary metric, such as the volatility in the USDJPY in this case, to guide it's policy and a potential departure from the negative interest rates (more so than based on the underlying economic data - CPI, PPI, unemployment, etc.) and then said volatility collapses, almost immediately?! ... One could only speculate on the complex range of emotions, induced in the BoJ's leadership (WTF?!, etc.). So,now what? ...
These previously unlikely turn of events suddenly provide a strong bias towards a (top-side) volatility spike, in the event of which a forced monetary intervention by the BoJ in the very near future becomes a virtually foregone conclusion!
On an additional note; Given the current US-Japanese rate differentials (as well as other factors) the USDJPY remains the least "over valued" among all the Yen crosses - making it a less than ideal such metric. Try on the CHFJPY or even the EURJPY as an exercise in absurd over valuation, for example. The likes of which have solid, almost identical, precedents in the late 1970 European central bank policies, most ending "in tears" and none more than Switzerland's SNB's, which slid into one of it's deepest depressions by the beginning of the 1980s!
This weeks technical picture (including Fridays close) further underlines this, by now much shifted, bias toward a top-side break out, potentially pushing prices well past the key 150.00 level, rather quickly. (E.g., certainly do Not be short the USDJPY, here! - To say the least.)
Current Rate Differentials between the Bank of Japan and ...
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- in Basis Points - ("most over valued" ranking)
- CHFJPY (Switerland) --- +250 - (#1)
- SKJPY (Sweden) --- +375
- AUDJPY (Australia) --- +400
- NOKJPY (Norway) --- +400
- EURJPY (EU) --- +450 - (#5)
- CADJPY (Canada) --- +475
- GBPJPY (G. Britain) --- +515
- NZDJPY (N Zealand) --- +525
- USDJPY (US) --- +525
- MXNJPY (Mexico) --- +11.25 - (#4)
- ZARJPY (S. Africa) --- +11.75 - (#2)
- HUFJPY (Hungary) --- +13.00 - (#3)
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p.s. This here is also the new Yen Thread!/b]
JPY Basket (FXCM) - LONGWhile I am not a die-hard fan of FXCM's Yen Basket (much prefer NAFTA + Japan vs. "the World"), this index/basket is clearly working on an turn here. It is still relatively week but has likely put the worst behind it. Now, it is all about acceleration which, judging from past behavior, ought to gain significant momentum.
Again, I'd suggest to use this "basket" as an indicator rather than trading it outright - which is also possible.
(Work in progress on a properly weighted NAFTA + Japan Index.)
USDJPY: Long Opportunity, Repeating the Same Bullish Pattern?Hello Fellow Global Forex Trader, Here's a Technical outlook for USDJPY!
Price Action Analysis
1. On the H4 Timeframe, USDJPY is moving above the bullish trendline and EMA200 after creating a rebound on the support area
2. USDJPY made a descending broadening wedge pattern two times
3. The recent breakout of the pattern could indicate a possible bullish bias ahead
The Momentum Indicator
Stochastic is made hidden bullish divergence pattern, hidden bullish divergence confirmed a potential upside movement to the target area.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the USDJPY"
JPYBasket 2 Day TF Based on my analysis, I anticipate that the JPYBasket will react in some way when it reaches the 7804-7828 zone. There could be a variety of reasons for this, such as technical levels, market sentiment, or fundamental factors.
In any case, rather than acting impulsively, I have decided to exercise patience and observe the market until a clear opportunity presents itself. I am particularly interested in looking for buying opportunities because I believe that the confluence of multiple factors at that level makes it a potentially attractive entry point.
However, I will not take any action until the market confirms my analysis and provides a suitable chance to enter a position. This may require waiting for a specific price level, waiting for a particular signal, or waiting for the market to stabilize. Ultimately, I am focused on making a well-informed and calculated decision that aligns with my trading strategy and risk management principles.
CADJPY: Multiple Timeframe Analysis, Double Top and Rising WedgeHello Fellow Global Forex Trader, Here's a Technical outlook for CADJPY!
Price Action Analysis
On the Daily Timeframe, CADJPY is moving below EMA200. Then, the Pair retested the previous neckline of the double-top and formed a rising wedge pattern, indicating a possible downside movement. The MACD Indicator made a death cross, signifying a potential downside movement to the target area.
On the H4 Timeframe, CADJPY also created a breakout of the double top pattern, confirming the bearish scenario ahead.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/ resistance area.
Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the CADJPY"
#JPYbasket bullish move confirmationsyesterday red candle was not only a retest to a broken bearish channel upper line, but also head and shoulder neckline. in addition to these two confluence we should be aware that JPY index suffers a lot through past month during rate hike cycle of central banks and fall massively like never before.
But now that we have some confluences that we are close to end of rate hike cycle JPY has found some room to appreciate against other currencies and as a result in technical aspect we can see it had formed and broke bullish chart pattern and its no longer trading in bearish channel.
with the look at the text book chart pattern target we can see that price can come all the way up to the oldest bearish channel midline and from there we should be looking for other confirmation and change in macro-economy.
JPY INDEX LONG IDEAPrice is currently at a discount and approaching a 1H bullish orderblock. I would like to see those Equal Lows taken and for the Bullish orderblock to be traded into, before an expansion to the upside. The Low resistance liquidity would be my first initial target.
Once price has filled my order, I would shout pairs XXX/JPY pairs after some displacement.