USDJPY Symmetrical TriangleSymmetrical triangle can be seen to have formed, a successful descending scallop has led to this formation. Pretty bullish setup. 200MA will act as support or the downfall for this setup.
Jpylong
Jpy Index OutlookJpy looks like it could have a strong finish of 2019.
The index is trading on an ascendant trend, putting in higher lows
Friday candle is a pin bar and a break of 92.20 zone could expose 93.50 zone in the medium term.
Strategy:
Look to sell especially EurJpy, AudJpy, CadJpy and ChfJpy
EurJpy need a breakdown of the line and fixingthe situation is similar as EURUSD
only here we have already fallen off the level,
but not here:
CADJPY More Likely SHORTOur 4Hr chart shows a shallow downtrend since the start of August; since then the trend has been so shallow CADJPY has ultimately been consolidating. Looking for a breakut we will use our resistance as we are down-trending. Our Resistance line shows we are at the top testing our line for the 5th MAJOR time. With no avail to proceed past. We will use our 1000 Range chart to determine the direction of the break. Knowing each range bar is the same size we can determine whether a break to the top or bottom is more likely. The red range line shows the potential move to the downside which lines up exactly with the last large support bounce. The black range bar shows upside potential, the upside move would have to fight harder and break the trend in order to succeed. The odds favor a downside move to $79.152 after a rejection at the resistance.
LNP Investments FX:CADJPY
USD/JPY Technical analysisAfter a steep fall, the counter consolidated in a narrow range in the form of a descending triangle pattern.
The pattern by itself indicates a bearish bias, and it was validated by a bearish breakout as well.
Hence, we expect the counter to move further low from here.
JPY index Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce
JPY index is approaching its support at 0.145 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.147 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support where a corresponding bounce could occur.
USDJPY / 1H / H&SWait for a break and close below the neckline. If we break the neckline we'll move to the indicated level.
Bears (almost) ready to attack again... getting ready to swingAfter the flash crash we have continued to trade within a wide range. An important and very significant point is the recent euro strength after a dovish ECB is corrective following the completion of a large bearish triangle pattern.
Support can be found at 124 and then 123.40. Below here would imply another top is in and add weight to the view that risk is entering back into the room. We are eyeballing a move eventually towards 122.75 which is the 38.2% retracement (not marked on the chart) of this most recent correction.
To the upside, for those who believe in the immediate Euro bull story (not our view) we can see resistance at 124.6 and 125.10. Both of which are necessary to be taken in order to suggest a continuation pattern and imply a deeper recovery.
Summarising, the range 125.10 - 123.40 is crystal clear and we see an opportunity in selling this correction as we believe there is still further downside to come in Europe before bulls come in towards the end of 2019.
Best of luck to all those in positions here.
Strategic short on AUDJPYHere we are actively in the market for further downside in AUDJPY after retesting 78.6.
=> From a fundamental perspective the outlook in Australia continues to weaken. Credit, housing and confidence are all slowing and a dovish RBA is the icing on the cake.
=> The "positive" headlines this morning from the US-China trade is increasingly priced in and we see this as a selling opportunity as there is limited upside in AUD from a potential deal.
=> JPY should also catch a bid from US outflows. Headwinds are appearing in earnings and global growth is also slowing.
The risk here to our idea is on the top-side. To give a meaningful break we would need to see a pickup in global growth which in turn will support commodity demand.
EUR JPY - Potential huge short swing tradeHit short term resistance on the daily chart and was rejected. Wait for the candle to complete and for confirmation before entering the trade. Although also be prepared for this to drop very quickly when it does. With such a tight stop and a good risk/reward ratio it may be worth entering and using a hedge buy position as your stop loss as this downward trend is very strong and not likely to change any time soon although the signs of reversal are much more likely to come from the USD JPY pair which seems to front run the other majors/minors.
This pair (and all other JPY pairs for that matter) is largely dependent on the global economy tanking, led by the US. The JPY has been seen as a safe haven asset (hence the flash crash last week as buyers rushed in) and the BOJ have openly stated that they have no stimulus to keep the currency within a specific range since they have exhausted these tactics in 2017 (see my link to article in my USD JPY analysis). The JPY has a long way to fall and is a great trade to get into in terms of a swing trade. I expect the JPY and all of it's pairs to take about 1.5 months to bottom. I have a price target on this but it is related to USD JPY so I will make a separate analysis with a longer term view for that.
Personally this is a longer term swing trade for me which I will keep adding to and will hedge using buy orders to protect any consolidation periods/corrections. It's not too late to get involved in this one and could be a really nice start to 2019. Note that this opinion stands for all of the JPY pairs within the next 1-2 months so depending on which broker you use this has a huge potential for a great trade as it has an excellent risk/reward ratio and is insulated from any of the potential global macroeconomic factors or a wider slow down as it's one of a very few (if not the only) safe haven asset right now. Just for clarification here I am referring to the JPY as a whole rather than this specific pair.
This is my first analysis, if you like it please give me a thumbs up and please feel free to comment as I am passionate about sharing ideas with other traders.
Happy trading everyone!
Alex
USDJPY - let's buyThe current bullish trend started with an H&S pattern on the price of 104.6 that indicated a reversal.
Afterward, the marked formed ABCD pattern that confirmed a bearish correction (112.6) and got back to the upward movement with another H&S (110.3).
Then we have a flag that confirmed a trend continuation (112.6) and our target is 116.6 - historical resistance line which several times reversed the market movement.
CHFJPY / 4H / H&SBias: Short
Strategy: Head and shoulders
Risk Management: 2% Maximum
Wait for a break and close to enter.
EURJPY / 1H / DOWNSIDE POTENTIALBias: Short
Strategy: Symmetrical Triangle
You MUST wait for a break and close below the triangle before entering shorts.
USDJPY / 4H / POTENTIAL DOWNSIDEBias: Short
Technical setup: Resistance + wedge
Risk management: Maximum 2%
When we reach the trendline watch to see how price reacts, if we break the trendline continue holding your position as we may see further downside.
