USDJPY; Zen and the art of economic cycle maintenanceThe Yen and thus, the Bank of Japan, is in a rather precarious position.
(Then again, when was the last time they weren't - in a precarious position?? ... .)
Admittedly, our Japanese is somewhat rusty lately but nowhere in the monetary manual did we find where it says: "Lending rates must be fixed at <0% or >10%, at all times!"
So, when the BoJ hangs it's hat on some arbitrary metric, such as the volatility in the USDJPY in this case, to guide it's policy and a potential departure from the negative interest rates (more so than based on the underlying economic data - CPI, PPI, unemployment, etc.) and then said volatility collapses, almost immediately?! ... One could only speculate on the complex range of emotions, induced in the BoJ's leadership (WTF?!, etc.). So,now what? ...
These previously unlikely turn of events suddenly provide a strong bias towards a (top-side) volatility spike, in the event of which a forced monetary intervention by the BoJ in the very near future becomes a virtually foregone conclusion!
On an additional note; Given the current US-Japanese rate differentials (as well as other factors) the USDJPY remains the least "over valued" among all the Yen crosses - making it a less than ideal such metric. Try on the CHFJPY or even the EURJPY as an exercise in absurd over valuation, for example. The likes of which have solid, almost identical, precedents in the late 1970 European central bank policies, most ending "in tears" and none more than Switzerland's SNB's, which slid into one of it's deepest depressions by the beginning of the 1980s!
This weeks technical picture (including Fridays close) further underlines this, by now much shifted, bias toward a top-side break out, potentially pushing prices well past the key 150.00 level, rather quickly. (E.g., certainly do Not be short the USDJPY, here! - To say the least.)
Current Rate Differentials between the Bank of Japan and ...
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- in Basis Points - ("most over valued" ranking)
- CHFJPY (Switerland) --- +250 - (#1)
- SKJPY (Sweden) --- +375
- AUDJPY (Australia) --- +400
- NOKJPY (Norway) --- +400
- EURJPY (EU) --- +450 - (#5)
- CADJPY (Canada) --- +475
- GBPJPY (G. Britain) --- +515
- NZDJPY (N Zealand) --- +525
- USDJPY (US) --- +525
- MXNJPY (Mexico) --- +11.25 - (#4)
- ZARJPY (S. Africa) --- +11.75 - (#2)
- HUFJPY (Hungary) --- +13.00 - (#3)
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p.s. This here is also the new Yen Thread!/b]
Jpypairs
CAD/JPY PLAN.Greetings to traders from across the globe,
Allow me to introduce myself as Alexandre Karim , and I shall now embark upon presenting my comprehensive analysis pertaining to the CAD/JPY exchange rate.
Firstly, it is patently evident that an upwardly inclining channel has been manifesting itself since the advent of the year 2020.
Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the price has, as of September 2022, achieved an altitude of profound psychological significance, a threshold last scaled in 2014.
At present, our valuation hovers marginally above this critical juncture, with figures oscillating betwixt the range of 109 and 111.
In the current milieu, the price has attained a region of resolute rejection, dating back to the month of September in the year 2022.
Notably, this phase is characterized by a corrective phase coupled with a constriction in price movement, potentially indicative of a forthcoming reversal trend in the downward trajectory, discerningly denominated as the "Rising Wedge."
I, personally, am adopting a posture of vigilant anticipation, poised for a descent or a breach in the prevailing structural framework, which would prompt the execution of a short position. In the event that the price breaches these thresholds and eludes my initial trade entry, I shall maintain my vigil for the emergence of a subsequent pattern indicative of a continuation of the downtrend, thereby facilitating the initiation of a short position.
In this endeavor, it is imperative to underscore the pivotal role of patience.
#THEPRIMES
CADJPY PLAN!Hello traders around the world!
My name is Alexandre Karim and today I'll be showing you my plan on CADJPY.
First of all if we go back to the weekly chart, we can clearly see that the price reached a mass psychological level at 106.420 since December 2014. The price formed an ascending channel, corrective to the upside from May 2022 till November 2022 & reversed to the downside. The gravity was clearly to the downside and back then we were planning for shorts.
Moving to the 4H chart, we can see that this pair is currently giving us an expanding channel + an ascending channel inside of the structure.
I am planning for a short position in these two areas:
1) The ascending channel which is corrective and very disciplined showing us clear touches on the upper TL. From this area, I'll be waiting for an hourly reversal pattern or an inner structure inside this ascending channel.
2) Waiting for the price to reach again the upper rejection line which is approximately at 110.520. From this area, I'll be also waiting for an hourly reversal pattern (Could be an ascending channel that will move correctively to the upside + sideways)
Always wait for the best set up to happen and have patience.
#ThePrimes
EURJPY Trade.Hello Traders around the world.
My name is Alexandre Karim & today we will be talking about the positions that I took on EURJPY.
As you can see in the picture, the price reached a mass psychological level then started to form an ascending correction by moving slightly sideways.
I was waiting for a reversal pattern to happen for a short position first entry & took it + I was waiting for a second position as a continuation pattern since the price already reversed.
Took the second position as a bearish flag.
The third position was a bearish flag as well and took me out BE.
Patience is key.
#THEPRIMES
JPY Pairs top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
NZDJPY PLAN!Hello traders around the world!
My name is Alexandre Karim from the primes community & today we will talk about NZDJPY.
First of all, let us take a look on the higher time frame (Weekly chart) and draw a major trend line catching the high of Monday 16 July 2007 (98.000) & the high of Monday 5 January 2015 (94.000) and prolong it till it reaches the current price (The TL will be slightly above it) the current price is at 86.066 (Its Sunday so the market is currently closed).
Our area to short NZDJPY would be around 90.000 / 91.000 & we will be waiting for a reversal pattern in this area to execute.
Since March 2020 the price is correctively moving up reaching our key area that we're waiting for. So on the daily chart we can draw an ascending channel from March 2020 till present. Focusing now on the upper TL of this ascending channel which we connected the high of Monday 1st of March 2021 (79.045) & the high of Monday 18 April 2022 (87.324) and prolonging it to see where the price might reverse.
The third area would be very recent which is the high of the middle section at 87.774.
On all of these areas we must wait for a reversal pattern to take a short position.
Patience is key.
#THEPRIMES
CADJPY Plan.Hello traders around the world!
CADJPY on the weekly chart is looking great as the price is reaching a key area on the upper trend line.
I won't be focusing on long positions in these 3 areas. I will be focusing on taking reversal patterns for short positions.
1st area is at the weekly upper TL around 115.000
2nd area is at the mass psychology rejection line around 125.544
3rd area is at the higher mass psychology rejection line around 137.390
Always wait for the right pattern before executing.
Patience is key.
#ThePrimes
USDJPY NEXT SCENARIO?Hello traders !
USDJPY is currently between two mass psychology levels: 135.179 & 147.728
Given that the price is between these two levels, we should be really patient and execute properly without having the FOMO (Fear of missing out) the trade.
USDJPY currently broke the ascending channel on the 4H chart and its forming a bearish flag on the 1H chart signaling more continuation to the downside.
I will be waiting for two scenarios.
SCENARIO #1:
Waiting for an inner structure reversal pattern on the 15mins chart inside the bearish flag as 3rd touch on the upper TL & execute a short + the stop loss should be above the previous high.
SCENARIO #2:
Waiting for the 1H bearish flag to be break to the downside by setting a sell stop and the stop loss should be above the previous high.
Patience is key. Look for quality trades.
#THEPRIMES
CADJPY NEXT MOVE !Hello Traders Around The World!
CADJPY looking amazing. Beautiful set up for a short position plan.
As you can see, CADJPY reached a mass psychology at 106.513.
The price started to test this area with a correction + Ascending channel.
I will be focusing on taking a reversal pattern in this area & execute when the price breaks to the downside.
Patience is key.
#ThePrimes
Ascending within Ascending Channel + Breakout bear Flag entryOne of my favourite JPY pairs, not in a hurry to jump in this one need more confirmation of the Short bias. If Price breaks out of the ascending I'll take the first flag out, but If Price tests the High one more time I'll wait for the impulse down then take the first flag.