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JPYUSD

Gold Approaching Key Resistance Berish Rjction or Bullish BrkoutBased on the chart provided: ### Key Observations: 1. **Resistance Zone**: - Price is approaching a strong resistance zone around 2,720–2,740, as indicated by the shaded area. - Previous interactions with this level suggest potential rejection, making it a critical zone for monitoring price action. 2. **Target Levels**: - **1st Target**: 2,680 – a minor support level where price might pause or bounce if rejection occurs. - **2nd Target**: 2,640 – a key mid-level support area aligned with historical price structure. - **3rd Target**: 2,623 – a stronger support zone near the previous low, offering a potential bounce zone. 3. **Risk-Reward Setup**: - A clear risk zone (stop-loss) is placed above the resistance zone (around 2,759), indicating a bearish outlook. - The trade setup assumes a rejection from the resistance area, with the first target likely to hit before deeper retracements. 4. **Market Context**: - Recent bullish momentum may face exhaustion as it approaches resistance, especially if accompanied by reduced volume. - The "Change of Character" (ChoCh) annotations suggest a possible shift in momentum around the resistance zone. ### Potential Trade Scenarios: 1. **Bearish Rejection**: - Look for bearish confirmation signals (e.g., bearish engulfing candles, rejection wicks) around the 2,720–2,740 zone. - Short entry: Near 2,720–2,730. - Targets: 2,680, 2,640, and 2,623, in that order. 2. **Bullish Breakout**: - If the price breaks above 2,740 with strong momentum, invalidate the bearish scenario. - Look for a retest of the 2,740 level as new support for long positions. - Target: 2,770–2,800. ### Additional Notes: - **Divergences**: Check for any bearish divergences in RSI or MACD to confirm weakness near the resistance zone. - **Economic Events**: Be cautious of news or data releases that may increase volatility in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
"Awaiting Bearish Confirmation at Key Resistance Zone on DXY"Based on the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index: 1. **Trend Analysis**: The index is currently within an upward channel, indicating a bullish trend. The price is oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this channel. 2. **Recent Movements**: There’s a noticeable price peak around the upper boundary, suggesting potential exhaustion. The recent downward movement indicates the possibility of a reversal. 3. **Bearish Confirmation**: The note emphasizes waiting for bearish confirmation before executing any trades. This suggests that it's prudent to look for signs of trend reversal or weakening momentum before making a bearish move. 4. **Strategy**: The advice is clear: without confirmation of a bearish trend, no trading should occur, highlighting a cautious approach. 5. **Key Levels**: Watch for key support around the mid-channel and resistance near the upper boundary, which could signal entry or exit points. Overall, the chart indicates a cautious approach is necessary, focusing on confirmations before taking any trading actions.
TVC:DXYShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
(JPYUSD) Analysis chart suggests a potential rejection from the resistance zone with an anticipated downward move, as shown by the blue arrow. Key observations include: Resistance Rejection: The price is struggling to break above the marked resistance zone, aligning with the downtrend's upper boundary. Trend Continuation: The downward channel remains intact, implying the potential for the price to head lower if the rejection is confirmed. Potential Target: The price may aim for the lower boundary of the channel, possibly testing support areas around 0.006300 or lower. Are you considering entering a sell position here, or waiting for more confirmation? Let me know how you'd like Looking at the chart, here are potential targets based on the descending channel and price action: 1. **1st Target**: **0.006320** (near the middle of the channel and a minor support zone). FX_IDC:JPYUSD 2. **2nd Target**: **0.006300** (key support area aligning with the lower channel boundary). 3. **Final Target**: **0.006280** (bottom of the channel for a full move). Keep an eye on how price behaves around the mid-channel zone; it could pause or bounce before reaching the lower levels. Would you like to adjust for risk management or trail the stop as the price moves?
Short
by TRADE_CENTER_1
The U.S. Dollar Index may be approaching a potential buy zoneHere’s a more detailed version of your DXY trading plan: DXY Trading Plan** Buy Zone:** Enter a buy position around **107.900**, but only after confirming bullish price action (e.g., rejection wicks, strong bullish candles, or signs of support holding firmly). Targets:** - First Target:** **108.200** – A key resistance level. Consider partial profit-taking or setting a tighter trailing stop here. - Third Target:**108.500** – If **108.200** breaks out with strong bullish momentum, hold for this higher resistance level as your final target. Risk Management:** - Stop-Loss:** Place your stop-loss slightly below **107.800** to protect against sudden reversals. - Close Trade:** If the price at **107.900** fails to hold or shows signs of weakness, exit the trade to limit losses. position Sizing:** Keep your risk-to-reward ratio in check, aiming for at least 1:2 (or higher). What to Watch For:** - **Confirmation Signals at 107.900:** Look for bullish candlestick patterns like hammer candles or engulfing patterns. - **Momentum Around 108.200:** Pay attention to price reactions at this level. If DXY struggles here, consider securing profits or exiting. - **Market Context:** Keep an eye on macroeconomic data, news, or events impacting the dollar index, as these can shift momentum quickly. **Additional Tip:** If the price nears **108.200**, move your stop-loss to breakeven or slightly above **107.900** to secure your position while giving the trade room to breathe. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
1
Xauusd for a selling opportunity from the H1According to the lower timeframe, I'm personally looking for a selling opportunity from the H1 resistance area because it's a major zone for sellers. Now the price consolidating between the parallel channel, but we can expect, it will break the resistance and move towards the major resistance area. But if the price successfully breaks our channel downside, then we will start placing our stop orders. Target:- 2588.00 / 2558.53 Let's see how the price will move. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
#USDJPY Taking a closer look at the USD/JPY pair on the 1-hour timeframe, the current price action highlights a significant area of interest that could dictate the next move in the market. The momentum appears to be building around this key zone, offering potential opportunities for both intraday traders looking for quick gains and scalpers aiming to capitalize on shorter movements. Whether it leads to a breakout or a reversal will depend on how the price interacts with these critical levels, making patience and confirmation essential for executing a well-timed and calculated trade.
by SadarExplore
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications -The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.3% in October 2024 from 2.5% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since January. Electricity prices saw the smallest increase in six months (4.0% vs 15.2% in September), as the effects of the energy subsidy removal in May diminished. Also, gas prices rose more slowly (3.5% vs 7.7%). In addition, costs slowed for furniture and household utensils (4.4% vs. 4.8%) and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Moreover, prices dropped further for communication (-3.5% vs -2.6%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, prices edged higher for food (3.5% vs 3.4%) and housing (0.8% vs. 0.7%). Meanwhile, transport prices jumped (0.5% vs. 0.1%) amid faster rises in cost of clothing (2.8% vs 2.6%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 0.9%). The core inflation rate hit a six-month low of 2.3%, down from September's 2.4% but above estimates of 2.2%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.4%, a reversal from a 0.3% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY Market Analysis 26/09/2024 After 70 days of constant decline, the USD/JPY pair has finally managed to break the descending trendline and exit the prolonged bearish trend. At the moment, it is still unclear whether this is a long-term trend reversal or just a short-term pullback within the larger downtrend. The charts clearly show a breakout of the main descending trendline, followed by a flip of the horizontal and diagonal support/resistance levels, which further confirmed the significance of this move. This breakout has been tested and validated at multiple levels — first at the diagonal trendline, and then at the horizontal support level. One of the key signals for this potential reversal is the bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, which indicated a weakening of the selling pressure and a potential trend change. This signal was further strengthened by the crossover of the Moving Average 7 above the Moving Average 21, which occurred right before the breakout. After the breakout confirmation, the price managed to reclaim the 0.236 Fibonacci level, but it is now facing a crucial resistance at the MA 200 level, which will determine the next direction. We are currently at a critical juncture — either we break through this level and head towards the 0.382 Fibonacci level, or we retrace and test the horizontal support once more, which now serves as a key support zone. It remains to be seen whether the price can maintain these levels or if it will revert back into the previous trend. If we see another successful test of the horizontal support, it could indicate further upside potential and a transition into a more stable bullish trend.
by RhinoAkaBear
USD/JPY Analysis - September 30, 2024Based on the current technical review and previous analyses, we observe key changes on the USD/JPY chart. After the pair broke through a key resistance level, a pullback has occurred, allowing us to identify important technical zones and opportunities for entering scalp positions. In this analysis, we consider the main aspects of this breakout, the pullback, and potential for further growth. Breakout of Key Resistance and Pullback: The breakout was anticipated based on prior analyses. Following this breakout, the price began to retrace back towards previous resistance levels, which have now become support. The zone where this retracement is occurring coincides with the 0.61 - 0.65 Fibonacci level, further confirming the strength of this area as a "golden pocket" for potential reversals. Bullish Divergence and Volume Loss: As the price fell to this confluence, bullish divergence formed on lower timeframes, signaling a possible return of buying strength. The decrease in volume during this time indicates a loss of momentum among sellers, which contributed to the decision to enter a scalp position and take advantage of the bounce from this level. Trendline as Temporary Support: The diagonal trendline has served as crucial support during the bounce. The plan is to monitor this trendline, and if it is breached, a retest of the previous support level is expected, which will open a new opportunity for entry. This could be a key moment for establishing a new uptrend, as a support/resistance flip at this level is likely to trigger a new wave of buying activity. Fibonacci Golden Pocket (0.61 - 0.65 Fib Level): This zone is one of the most reliable areas for seeking price reversals in technical analysis. Located within the "golden pocket," it provides additional confluence that can confirm the validity of the plan. This zone often attracts investors as it represents an optimal balance between retracement and potential growth. Expected Setup and Take Profit Target: The target, set at 147.827, represents a resistance level that the price may test again after successfully flipping support into resistance. This target is logically set based on previous high price levels, while the setup offers a potentially very high Risk/Reward ratio of over 6.19, making it exceptionally attractive for trading. ⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️ 🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
by RhinoAkaBear
USDJPY Favors Bearish ViewOn Friday, the USD/JPY is trading at around 142.30. An analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is in a consolidation phase within a descending channel, which favors a bearish view. Moreover, the 14 - day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays below the 50 - level, reaffirming the existing bearish perspective. Looking at the downside, the USD/JPY pair could encounter immediate support at 139.58, which represents the lowest level since June 2023. After that, there is the lower limit of the descending channel close to 137.50. Regarding the resistance , the 21 - day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 143.56 level serves as an initial hurdle. Subsequently, there is the upper limit of the descending channel around the 144.80 level.
Short
by Tekapo-Invest
1
USD/JPY analysis 2024/09/20 FX_IDC:USDJPY Notice: The points are only valid from 2024/09/20 to 2024/10/05 What we have now? 1.The key support and resistances level: 152 148.2 144 142 139.5 What should we do? 1.Open the long position when the price fails to break through the lower support level TP when the price is close to upper resistance level or TP 50% of your position first, the other 50% for a huge breakout. SL when the price break through the lower support level 2.Open the short position when the price fails to break through the upper resistance level TP when the price is close to lower support level or TP 50% of your position first, the other 50% for a huge breakout. SL when the price break through the upper resistance level Future Price movement 70% chance : The 139.5 price level is a really strong support, and I don't think it'll drop below that in the next month. It'll probably bounce between 144 and 139.5 for at least two weeks, building up enough momentum to push towards the resistance at 152 30% chance : Break below 139.5 Always put a Stop Loss for your positions!! Trade safe!
Long
by DrkeezySSGcup
1
USD/JPY Price Analysis (1H)The price of USD/JPY is currently approaching a support level and could be setting up for a pullback. If it bounces off this support, we could see a potential upward move. However, if the support is broken, the next target could be the next support level Key scenarios to watch: If the price bounces back from the support, it may signal a reversal. If the price breaks out below the support, it could move toward the next support level. Let’s monitor closely and see how it develops!
by WaveRiders2
$USDJPY Carry trade unwind to continue? $131-108 targetsFX:USDJPY looks like it's set to fall further here. Equities took a hit when USDJPY went from 152 to 142. Now you can see that price rallied back up into resistance at 148, rejected it and looks set to fall more unless price can recover that 148 resistance. I could see another move down into that 131 level, however, there's a possibility that price can fall much more than that. I could potentially see a move all the way down to 115 -108 before price finds support. Those levels would be a successful retest of the bottoming structure price broke out from. After those levels get tested, then I think USDJPY will enter a long-term bull market. Let's see how this plays out over the coming months.
Short
by benjihyam
Macro Monday 60 ~ Japanese Yen Recession Signal Macro Monday 60 Japanese Yen Recession Signal If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any Yen recessionary trigger levels. Very handy to have at a glance. The Chart The chart illustrates how the Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar has followed a similar trajectory as the U.S. Unemployment Rate. The chart demonstrates that the Yen price has behaved in a particular way prior to recessions (red areas). You might be wondering how the Yen can offer insights into economic recessions and how they are linked; 1. Historically, the yen has strengthened during recessions due to the reduction of U.S. interest rates that typically coincides with recessions. When the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers rates, it makes the yen relatively more attractive to investors. With rate cuts highly likely in September 2024 the Japanese Yen is likely to see positive price action against the U.S. dollar. 2. The BOJ has historically intervened to prevent the Yen from becoming too strong. A strong yen negatively impacts Japan’s export-reliant economy. However, this trend shifted in 2022 when Tokyo stepped in to defend the Yen’s value. The BOJ bought Yen after expectations that other central banks would raise rates while the BOJ kept rates ultra-low. 3. In July 2024, the BOJ raised interest rates and signaled further policy tightening. Concerns about the historically weak yen also played a role (evident on the chart by the 30 year low in June 2024). This move, along with U.S. growth concerns, triggered an unwinding of carry trades (where investors borrow cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets), causing the yen to rebound against the dollar. The chart along with the above three points are suggesting the Yen may be about to rise significantly in coming months versus USD. This direction of price for the Yen is consistent with the early signs of recession onset, in particular if the Yen increases in value by 22% to 42% (see below). Japanese Yen vs U.S. Unemployment Rate The blue numbers and corresponding blue box on the chart suggests that a sudden 22% – 42% increase in the Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar (from below the 0.008200 level) typically precedes recessions. This 22 – 42% increase in the yen is something we can look out for in combination with other recession charts we have in our current armory. See my most recent charts. ▫️ Above we discussed some macro-economic factors that suggest a high probability of the Yen ascending higher. The yen price also made a 30 year low in June 2024 and now appears to be breaking higher. ▫️ We now have levels on the chart to watch; the 22% level and the 42% level. In the event the Yen rises to these levels alongside the U.S. Unemployment Rate continuing to increase, this would significantly raise the probability of recession in subsequent months. Summary ▫️ The chart captures how the Japanese Yen has followed a similar trajectory as the U.S. Unemployment Rate. When both move in unison up and to the right it typically isn’t a good sign for the economy. ▫️ A number of macro-economic factors suggest the Yen is about to increase e.g. Likely lowering of interest rates in the U.S will make the dollar more affordable to borrow and increase its supply weakening its strength whilst increasing the strength/value of the Yen. ▫️ The chart demonstrates that increases in Yen from below 0.008200 by 22% - 42% typically precede recessions. Theses levels are etched on the chart for you to monitor. ▫️ As the Yen price made a 30 year low in June 2024 and now appears to be breaking higher and with the addition of macro-economic events suggest a higher Yen, its now more important than ever to monitor the Yen and its historic recession trigger levels at 22% and 42%. These are on the chart for your convenience. You can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any JPY recessionary trigger levels. Japan Trade Opportunities Given the higher probability that the Yen is increasing, this heightens the probability of recession, however it also means some Japanese stocks might offer a nice back end currency benefit over coming two years. Do you know any good Japanese Value stocks? If you do, be sure to share them below for some recession proof, back end currency promising trades. As always, its been a pleasure PUKA
Long
by PukaCharts
Gold vs. Yen Carry Trade: A Shifting Paradigm For years, the yen carry trade has been a cornerstone of many investment portfolios. This strategy involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as US Treasuries. However, a confluence of factors is making gold, represented by the XAU/USD pair, an increasingly attractive alternative. The Yen Carry Trade Under Pressure The yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, fueled by Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over its allure. • Rising Interest Rates: Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have embarked on a tightening cycle to combat inflation. This has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, reducing the potential profit from the carry trade. • Yen Strength: The Japanese yen has shown unexpected resilience, countering the traditional trend of yen weakness. This is partly due to safe-haven flows as investors seek refuge from global economic uncertainties. • Geopolitical Risks: Increased geopolitical tensions can disrupt carry trades. A sudden shift in risk appetite can lead to rapid yen appreciation, erasing potential gains and incurring significant losses. The Allure of Gold In contrast, gold has emerged as a compelling investment option. • Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical risks. As global economic conditions become increasingly volatile, investors may seek the security of gold. • Inflation Hedge: With inflation concerns persisting, gold has historically been seen as an effective inflation hedge. As the price of goods and services rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive store of value. • Diversification Benefits: Gold can help diversify an investment portfolio. Its low correlation with traditional asset classes can reduce overall portfolio risk. • Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been net buyers of gold in recent years, supporting its price. This ongoing demand can provide a bullish undercurrent for the gold market. XAU/USD: A Closer Look The XAU/USD pair, representing the price of gold in US dollars, offers investors exposure to the gold market. • Dollar Dynamics: While gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, the US dollar can also appreciate in times of uncertainty. Therefore, the performance of XAU/USD depends on the interplay between gold and the dollar. • Interest Rate Sensitivity: Gold is generally inversely correlated with interest rates. Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on gold prices, as investors may prefer higher-yielding bonds. However, this relationship is not always straightforward, and other factors can influence gold's price. Conclusion The decision to invest in gold or continue with the yen carry trade is a complex one, influenced by individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market outlook. While the yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, the changing interest rate environment and geopolitical risks have increased its challenges. Gold, with its safe-haven appeal and inflation-hedging properties, offers a compelling alternative. Investors should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of both options before making a decision. It's important to note that this article provides general information and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln