How to Read Volume Profile StructuresWhat Is Volume Profile?
There are two ways of observing the total volume transactions in any market. As a spot forex trader, you can tap into tick volumes as an accurate visual representation of the total traded volume in the X-axis, which would then make your analysis be based on time.
Alternatively, you can carry out your volume study through the vertical Y-axis, in which case, you are analyzing the total activity based on price levels. It is this latter study what volume profile is about; it’s a histogram of the amounts bought and sold at specific price levels as opposed to specific times.
The volume profile allows any trader to evaluate the market context to keep track of the never-ending auction process. That’s what a market is at the end of the day, a constant negotiating process to find equilibrium/agreement (via the accumulation of transactions at a certain level), and the ones that were perceived too cheap or too expensive (no volume found). The art of reading volume profile is all about studying the anatomy of the market auctions.
Before taking things to the next level, allow me to walk you through some basics. When drawing your volume profile in the chart, you must become intimately familiar with the following values:
1. Point of Control (PoC): It refers to the area in the chart with the most traded volume activity. This is by far the most relevant area you want to monitor as it can help to define the placement of your stops or the areas in the chart where you might find the most pristine entry levels. The highest concentrated area of volume for a particular period of time we will call it PoC or Point of Control and you will be surprised how many times it acts as a wall on a retest. Traders tend to factor this in as an area of support or resistance.
2. High Volume Nodes (HVN): Sub-sequences in the chart with high volume activity. While not as powerful nor symbolic as the PoC, the HVN is also a powerful area as it also represents increased trading activity.
3. Value Area (VA): The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded. By default, the industry standards tends to be 70%. Once I explain the principle of the distribution curve below, it will become much clearer why the default number is the 70%, bear with me.
There are three different types of volume profiles to use in your charts. When you first call the volume profile option through the widely popular charting package trading view, the options include:
Fixed Range
Visible Range
Session Volume (Preferred)
I personally find the combination of the daily price action activity and its respective volume flows at specific price levels the most relevant approach as I will demonstrate in the next paragraphs. The session volume allows you to constantly obtain an update to re-evaluate the market, whereas the assessment of the fixed range or the visible range is more discretionary.
That said, the fixed and visible range options also serve as useful tools depending on the purpose of your analysis, that’s why I will also spend some time going through the most valuable benefits of its use.
Fixed Range: Selection Of Interest Levels A La Carte
Trading the markets, especially if you are an intraday trader, involves constant interaction with your charts. You are constantly looking for areas that you can lean against to take certain actions. Right? This first fixed range option allows you to select any area in the chart to deconstruct the total activity. This is a tool that can be of enormous value if you are looking to tighten or trail your stops as well as spotting areas of most interest to enter your positions.
Let’s say that you wanted to play a short in the EUR/USD 30m chart after the breakout of the range. A fairly conventional strategy would have been to wait for the price to break below the two horizontal support levels and enter short on a retest of either one of them. The next logical question would then be, where would you place your stop? If you are trading conservatively, you’d probably be placing your stop somewhere above the 1.16 in order to leave enough wiggle room in case the rebound returns back into the range.
However, if you think about it, there are other areas in the chart that still make a lot of sense to capitalize on. If you were interested in tightening your stop in such a magnitude that your short trade could exploit the prospects of a much larger risk reward, you could then be tapping into the power of the fixed range volume profile to identify at what price level after the range breakout the highest concentration of volume occurred. You could then use this as an area of relevance to assist your action as a seller. In the example, it may have been a great area to play with a much tighter stop.
There is a multitude of examples I could provide about the usefulness of the fixed range volume profile. However, since I want the core of this tutorial to be about the session volume structures, I’d refrain from further chart illustrations unless you want me to (post comments below). I am sure you can figure out how it could be of benefit to you, depending on your trading style.
Visible Range: The Macro View Of The Market
As the name indicates, the visible range option unpacks as much trading activity as data is in your chart. It portrays the big picture view of the most-traded price levels over a specified period of time.
This option is most suited as part of your daily or weekly analysis to spot areas of interest in the chart. By stepping back and projecting an eagle-view from a macro level, it helps you to easily identify key supports and resistances, which is what I mainly suggest to use the visible range for.
One of the most powerful approaches that I recommend is to select your macro areas of interest by zooming out your charts. Once done, you can start drawing horizontal rectangles at every high volume nodes (in black) or low volume node (in red). The areas highlighted will be by far the most relevant that you want to be paying attention going forward.
JPYUSD
Top And Bottom Analysis "USD/JPY" by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
a)Price has broken the ascending triangle trendline
b)Currently the price is inside a Flag pattern Formation ( this type of patterns are consider continuation structures)
c)The Flag pattern is supported by a major support zone
Based on this, if the price breaks down below 108.000, we expect a continuation of the bearish movement, towards 106.600
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
-Daily:
-Weekly
The unwind is comingJPYUSD broke out today with a huge 1% move to break out of a 4 year long wedge. This is a bit of a technical move, but it has loads of fundamental implications.
Before I go into detail, note that before and during every major market breakdown, JPY spikes, at least in modern times. It has a reputation as a safety currency / safe haven due to this reputation. The reason being that Japan has had extremely low interest rates for a very long time, making it an ideal currency to borrow in, then purchase foreign bonds. IE, a carry trade. The reason it's a safe haven is that when risk starts to occur, traders who have huge positions built up buying foreign fixed income of any variety will sell those positions, and will re-purchase their Yen as they do so.
The problem here is that this can become a bit of a feedback loop. As we see liquidations in these bond positions, this will force more traders to cover, resulting in the Yen rising more and more. This started to occur in 2007 before the financial crisis.. it was actually one of the dominant stories of that era (see www.marketwatch.com) . If only more people knew what this meant for overall financial markets.
US High Yield
One of the biggest risks that has been identified by many people over the past 1-2 years has been the pervasive reach for yield. There has been a significant bubble of corporate debt built up over the past decade, and a lot of it is covenant light, or poorly rated. When the yen rises, corporate debt gets liquidated... Turns out, a significant portion of the buyers of US corporate debt have been asian buyers who's own sovereign bonds are negative yielding. There have been recent stories that many of these purchases have been made un-hedged even...
So long story short, the JPYUSD carry trade can be used to proxy risks to the US corporate debt bubble, and by association, the global reach for yield. This is a trade that can seriously unwind... big potential for negative convexity here in my opinion. IF this continues to break to the upside, it'll cause a lot of issues in markets globally, but watch the high yield space (BDC's, corporate bond etf's, etc).
"Top and Bottom Analysis" USD/JPY by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-Price has broken the ascending trendline.
-Currently, price is inside a corrective structure.
-We expect the triangle Trendline to give some type of Support before the breakout.
Based on this, if the price breaks down the corrective structure below 109.750 we expect a continuation of the bearish movement towards the triangle trendline, after that if price makes a new corrective structure on that area we will look for a 2nd downward movement towards 105.300
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
- Weekly:
-Daily:
USDJPY Wedge and ChannelWhen looking on the left, it looks like the channel might break soon. Because the last bump up (green circle), failed to move above the previous high and already testing the channel again. This increases the chances for a downwards break. On the right we can see a bullish wedge, indicating it will move up short term. Usually, if the direction is down, we should see this wedge fall short of the target. So moving like the blue line, staying below the 111.7ish. If the wedge fails and breaks down, we should see an acceleration down.
UJ Quick +25 pip ShortQuick, Simple, Analysis based on price behavior I've seen over and over and over.
DXY Directional bias is bearish but we could expect a bullish Legg upwards, however I've learned Trends usually tend to keep trending in their direction until major support. So I would say chances are bigger UJ will dump since we went up a lot and DXY bias is still bearish for now.
USDJPY, bulls loosing momentumThe rally is slowing down and today's drop broke some low time frame support levels, so chances are increasing for a drop now. I am going to wait for a better entry and want to see something like the blue line. So moving up, seeing some resistance in that zone and then if it turns down, i will give it a try.
Previous analysis:
USD -JPY long term short on montly - bullsih on 4 hourIf we see for long term prospective the trend is bearish .
it has to come down a lot .
but it will fall down with lot of ups and down .
for short term -> can long upto max 111.477 but take care it can rebound back from 110732 and strong sell can be seen .
if it breaks 109.702 then short the pair. take care of 108.797 strong area can long and get some pips till 109.627 and then again strong sell may happen.
Analysis is done on the gan fan , fibo and price action.
enjoy :)
safe trading
USD/JPY — Bullish Bias With A Major Obstacle NearbyThe relatively easier gains in the pair have been made and it should get much harder to make progress from here on out even if the signals via the DXY and US fixed income continue to support the buying on dips campaigns based on the universal 5-DMA upward slopes we are seeing. The acceleration from Friday stopped on its tracks around the 109.80, with the close unable to achieve any higher levels. This is significant as the level coincides with the backtest of a major swing low from back in Aug 21st now turned resistance.
ETH Bullish and Bearish scenario TA and targets- QuantRsi 1D+12H- I apologize for the chart formatting, TradingView needs to add a preview button and allow chart manipulation during a preview stage. I'm using multiple monitors and the charts looks great until it gets published...
I feel like any bearish sentiment will be wildly unpopular, however the technicals indicate that ETH may be on the brink of slipping into a bearish formation with the potential for a big slide.
That said, there is also the possibility of consolidation and continuation to higher highs, with some pretty bullish short term targets.
Here are my targets and some narrative into how I'm using the QuantRsi and Heffae Cloud indicators to establish these levels.
Refer to the chart and related ideas for reference! Happy trading!