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Bitcoin Bull Run Unleashed: Navigating Fractals to 71KFinancial Analysis: Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) - December 19, 2023 Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information as of the provided date and is subject to change. It should not be considered as financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment decisions. Market Overview In our latest analysis, we revisited the fractal patterns emerging in late 2015 to gain insights into the current market situation for Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ). After confirming a breakout above the daily support line and the 3D Candle Fibonacci level of $41,989, we anticipate a potential breach of the daily resistance level at $43,578. Upon confirmation, the market is expected to exhibit further bullish momentum, targeting the weekly resistance of $44,950.01. Macroeconomic Factors Recent positive developments in Europe, coupled with a rise in Deutsche Bank shares, have contributed to a favorable market environment. Additionally, last week's Federal Reserve news has had a positive impact on safe-haven assets, with gold experiencing a 0.74% increase since the previous week's close. The EURUSD markets also moved positively by 0.10% today. These factors, combined with growing money flow and smart money movements toward Bitcoin, suggest a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency. Price Targets and Analysis The identified take-profit level at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, around $46,600, is expected to be reached effectively. Subsequently, we anticipate further momentum towards a liquidity gap at approximately $47,700, as late investors enter the market following a significant price move. Global Market Dynamics A notable observation is the potential twist on the horizon for FX_IDC:JPYUSD , mirroring the trend in FX:EURUSD and indicating a probable market reversal. Our analysis and FX:EURUSD Long , outlined in a previous report, aligns with the expectation of significant market corrections, possibly substantiating Michael Burry's theory of a possible US market crash. Bitcoin's Unique Position Bitcoin's independence from the USD is highlighted as a key factor in its purchasing confidence. As the US Dollar experiences a downturn, Bitcoin appears to be gaining traction as a safe-haven asset. It's important to note that Bitcoin's behavior is distinct from traditional financial assets, with its algorithm, including the relevance of mining rates, prevailing above potential correlations to other stocks or currencies. Quantitative Analysis Our proprietary market quantization indicator, W.ARITAS , is signaling a significant buildup of bullish momentum for future Bitcoin prices. However, it is crucial to acknowledge Bitcoin's tendency for significant corrections following large bullish movements. Notably, there are unfilled CME gaps at $34,000 and $28,000 , which may need to be addressed before the cryptocurrency can reach new highs, potentially at $71,000 . Conclusion In conclusion, the current market analysis suggests a favorable environment for Bitcoin, with positive macroeconomic indicators, technical breakout signals, and increased purchasing confidence. However, investors should remain vigilant and consider the potential for corrections, as observed in Bitcoin's historical price behavior. Additionally, global market dynamics, including the possible implications of a USD downturn, should be closely monitored for their impact on Bitcoin's performance.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by wikitrades
"USD/JPY: Japanese Yen Halts Decline, Eyes US CPI Data"The Japanese Yen regained positive momentum in the Asian trading session on Tuesday. USD/JPY partially eroded some of the strong recovery seen in the past two days. Investors are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh impetus ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY showed a certain degree of recovery last week at the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The subsequent move exceeded the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from the vicinity of 152.00, or the YTD high, supporting bullish sentiments. However, the sharp rise during the day halted near the 200-hour SMA, now closing around the 146.50 level. This area will now play a crucial pivot point, and clearing it would allow the price to test the 50% Fibonacci level, around 146.80, and reclaim the 147.00 milestone. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are deep in positive territory, supporting the potential for some upward action at higher levels. This suggests that the resistance at the 100-hour SMA, around 145.85, may now act to defend the downside just ahead of the psychological level of 145.00. Further selling pressure could push USD/JPY back towards the intermediate support zone of 144.55-144.50 on the way to the 144.00 mark. A convincing break below this level would be considered a strong bearish catalyst, paving the way for deeper losses. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its downward trend for the second consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair towards the 146.00 level during the European trading session on Monday. A report on Friday suggested that comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week were misunderstood, and the central bank will maintain the status quo until positive wage inflation begins. This comes alongside weaker-than-expected GDP reports from Japan, indicating the domestic economy remains fragile and expectations of imminent rate hikes may be inflated. Conversely, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some renewed buying interest after betting on an early Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing was scaled back, proving to be another supportive factor for the USD/JPY exchange rate. Friday's closely watched US employment figures showed a rapid growth pace in November, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7%. This indicates signs of underlying strength in the labor market and suggests that current market pricing for a rate cut in March 2024 may be premature. The recent sharp upward move seen around the USD/JPY pair in the past hour may be attributed to some technical buying based on sustained strength beyond the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). This suggests that concerns about a deeper global economic downturn and geopolitical risks may limit losses for the safe-haven JPY and restrict any further upside moves for the currency. Traders may also limit strong bets ahead of this week's significant event/data risks - US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday and the crucial FOMC policy decision on Wednesday."
by Larissa-Trader
USD/JPY Weakens on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and BoJ PivotThe Japanese Yen has surrendered recent gains against the US Dollar amidst speculation of a Fed rate cut in March and a shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policies. Despite a day-end recovery, USD/JPY experiences one of its worst trading days in over a year, dropping below 142.00 and closing just above 144.00. Despite the intraday recovery, USD/JPY had one of its worst trading days in over a year, slipping below 140.00 in November last year. Throughout Thursday's trading session, USD/JPY transitioned from a slight decrease to a drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average, requiring significant progress for a recovery towards the 147.00 handle. The 50-day SMA is currently positioned higher than the price action on Thursday, pushing towards the 114.90 region. Expectations of a Fed rate cut weigh on the US Dollar There is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hikes and will commence a rate cut in March, putting pressure on the US Dollar. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to move away from extremely loose monetary policy in the coming months. This, coupled with risk aversion sentiment, offsets the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY witnessed a more than 4% decline on Thursday, quickly dropping below 142.00 before larger markets staged a modest recovery, pulling the Japanese Yen (JPY) back into a reasonable price range. USD/JPY closed Thursday down by around 2%, while the Yen entered Friday's market session in the green for the week. The Yen saw a broader market recovery following unconventional comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, unexpectedly hinting at the eventual end of BoJ's negative interest rate policy, possibly in the early part of next year.
by Larissa-Trader
"JPY Surges to Three-Month High Against USD"The Japanese Yen extended its robust upward momentum against the US Dollar on Friday and kicked off the new week with a positive sign, pulling the USD/JPY pair to a nearly three-week low around the 146.25-146.20 range during the Asian trading session. The US Dollar is attempting to recover from its lowest point in two and a half months at 146.65, supported by a slight rebound in US Treasury yields, which is exerting pressure on the Japanese Yen. On Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that interest rates could reach their highest point, supporting this perspective. In this context, the analysis of Fed Chairman Powell's conference later today will be closely scrutinized to evaluate the central bank's next steps. On the other hand, growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may move away from its extremely accommodative monetary policy by 2024 are providing some support for the JPY. From a broader perspective, this currency pair maintains a downward trend from its mid-November high near 152.00, with a resistance level at 148.75 likely to limit the upward movement before the late November peak at 149.75. Support levels are identified at 147.77 and 146.65.
by Larissa-Trader
Japanese Yen's Caution Amid USD/JPY Trends and US PCE DataThe Japanese Yen continues to exhibit relative strength amid hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Bets on a series of Fed interest rate cuts in 2024 are dampening the USD and weighing on USD/JPY. Bearish speculators are becoming cautious, eagerly awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data later this Thursday for fresh market impetus. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has shown potential for a recovery below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling caution for trend-following traders. This indicates that daily chart oscillators are deeply entrenched in negative territory but still far from oversold levels. Conversely, this suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward, and any meaningful recovery attempts could be viewed as selling opportunities. Meanwhile, Wednesday saw the USD/JPY touch multi-month lows around the 146.65 region, seemingly defending immediate weakness. Below this level, USD/JPY could swiftly push the downside momentum towards the psychological 146.00 mark. On the flip side, the 147.30-147.35 region may act as an immediate barrier ahead of the high overnight volatility, around the 147.90 area and the 148.00 mark. Any further upward movement may attract new sellers and remains constrained near the strong horizontal support-turned-resistance level at 148.30. In summary, caution prevails in the face of the Japanese Yen's bullish trend, with the focus shifting to the US PCE data for potential market catalysts. Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias for USD/JPY, with key support and resistance levels influencing the near-term trajectory.
by Larissa-Trader
USD/JPY Hits Six-Week Low Near 148.50, Faces Key SupportThe USD/JPY pair remains under selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest point since October 4 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. However, the spot price has slightly rebounded in the past few hours and is trading around the 148.00 level. USD/JPY continues to trade near its lowest level in six weeks, extending losses to around 148.90 in the early European trading session on Monday. The key level of 148.50 emerges as immediate support, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 148.49. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 signals a bearish sentiment, potentially inspiring bearish moves towards the support zone around 146.50, followed by the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 146.37. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above the centerline, showing divergence below the signal line, often indicating a downward price trend. This configuration suggests that the short-term moving average (MACD line) is moving further away from the long-term moving average (signal line) in a downward direction. On the flip side, the psychological level at 150.00 may act as a significant barrier, corresponding with the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.34. A breakthrough above this level could support a USD/JPY rebound towards last week's high at 151.90.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
What Next For The Yen?In Karate, offense is the best form of defence. The BoJ knows it. Japan faces a raft of economic headwinds which shows up in Yen’s performance. The BoJ intervened strongly last year to support the currency when it skirted around current levels. Yen is hovering at those levels again. BoJ is anticipated to act. Such interventions typically mark the bottom. This paper explores recent economic data to analyse the potential for monetary policy changes by BOJ. JAPANESE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAMPER YEN FROM STRENGTHENING Starting September, the Yen has trended lower relative to the USD among currency majors. The Yen has weakened the most. As described previously , BoJ’s aims to kickstart the economy onto a high growth trajectory to exit decades of painful deflation. Recent macroeconomic data indicates weakness. This reaffirms the need for continued loose monetary policy. However, a frail Yen poses a different type of challenge for the BoJ with higher import costs for fresh food and fuel. This leaves the BoJ in a predicament between loose monetary policy and intervention to support the Yen. What does recent inflation, GDP, and wage data point to? Inflation Inflation declined M-o-M in September. CPI cooled to 2.8% falling below 3% for the first time in a year. Importantly, Japan’s producer prices are now below 2% in a sign that inflation might have peaked. Consumer prices will fail to prevail above 4% for long with input prices moderating. The BoJ expects inflation to persist until March next year at current levels and to cool towards target rates in the following 12 months. GDP Growth The Japanese economy shrank 2.1% YoY in Q3. This is far below expectations of 0.6% decline and a sharp slowdown from +4.5% growth in Q2. Slow economic growth makes economic stimulus essential to sustain it. Wages Nominal wage growth continues to decline. Real wages are even more concerning. Wages have declined for the last 18 months when adjusted for inflation. Next Shunto negotiations are set to complete by mid-Jan 2024 with outcome remaining uncertain. The BoJ highlighted that wage uncertainties and price-setting behaviour pose upside risk to prices. Meanwhile, high inflation will keep impacting real wages, affecting people's ability to spend. THE BANK OF JAPAN IS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE At the October monetary policy meeting, the BoJ announced changes to the bond yield cap. The Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and range were kept unchanged. However, a small modification was made to change the 1% JGB yield cap from a rigid one to a loose reference. These changes hint at BoJ setting itself up for the eventual roll-back of the YCC policy altogether. Next BoJ policy meeting is set for December 19th. The BoJ will likely maintain stimulus and hold rates low amid feeble consumer & business spending. The policy change will be through YCC dismantling, impacting the JGB market. It will require careful planning and deft timing. Meanwhile, the BoJ may intervene to stem continued Yen weakness. The officials have expressed this sentiment over the last two weeks via warnings for participants shorting the Yen over the past two weeks. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened three times last year, injecting USD 68 billion to support the Yen when it was trading near 150/USD. These interventions, unannounced, led to sharp and unexpected currency moves. Unlike previous exchange rate-based interventions, the BoJ’s current predicament revolves around volatility and public perception. Reuters reports that if Japan aims to prevent yen appreciation, the MoF will issue short-term bills to raise Yen, which is then sold in the market to weaken the currency. Alternatively, to curb Yen depreciation, authorities will tap into Japan's FX reserves, exchanging dollars for the Yen. In recent weeks, Japanese authorities have issued warnings and expressed readiness to intervene as the Yen continues to weaken, despite a moderating USD. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency official, emphasized the urgency of their judgments and the potential for intervention, resonating with rhetorics used a year ago. MIXED SIGNALS FROM CURRENCY DERIVATIVES MARKETS Although asset managers are not positioned as net short as they were in late-September, they increased their net short positioning (weakening Yen) last Tuesday. Similarly, leveraged funds also increased net short positioning sharply last week. Options markets contrarily signal strength in the Yen. P/C ratio for CME Japanese Yen Options (JPU) is 0.42 implying two puts for every five calls. JPUs are quoted with the Yen as the base currency so call options express a view of the Yen strengthening. Moreover, bullish bets have increased heavily over the past week. Specifically, nearest monthly and weekly contracts (JPZ3 and WJ4X3) show Yen strengthening in the near term. Bullish bets in December options outnumber bearish bets by three times. Although put open interest (OI) is concentrated near current levels with the highest OI at 0.0066 (151 in USD/JPY), call OI is more spread across with a large OI at strike of 0.0069 (145 in USD/JPY) which has ballooned over the last week. This signals that options market expects Yen strengthening by next month. Finally, implied volatility on JPU is near its lowest level since March 2022. Source: CME CVOL Options skew on JPU is close to one, indicating that premiums on calls and puts are equally priced. Convexity remains elevated signalling investor interest in OTM options suggesting likelihood of sharp moves ahead. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given 12-month low implied volatility, a position in JPU can yield cost-effective protection against sharp Yen moves. Alternatively, with the anticipated stability in Japanese interest rates, a short futures position in CME Japanese Yen futures, as previously discussed in a paper , is a viable approach to capitalizing on Yen's expected weakening. We can tap into JPU to safeguard this position against unforeseen risks of yen strengthening from BoJ intervention. Furthermore, CME offers weekly options for Japanese Yen futures, expiring from Monday through Friday of the week. This enables investors to attain short-term exposure on a more focused scale, accompanied by lower premiums compared to monthly options. A long call option position in JPUZ3 (expiring on December 8) would benefit from a BoJ intervention. The trade setup consists of an entry at a strike of 0.0068 (JPY 147.0588) in JPUZ3 call options. These options are at a delta of 25 and expire in 30 days providing a good trade-off between low premium and adequate exposure to the underlying. As of settlement on November 17th, premium for these options stood at USD 245 at an implied volatility of 8.26%. Source: CME Options Calculator The position breaks even at 0.00682 (JPY 146.6275) and turns profitable when (a) underlying futures price increases above strike price, and/or (b) implied volatility increases. Source: CME QuikStrike MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Long
by mintdotfinance
JPY Futures aggressive Big deal was detectedExtremely Aggressive Yen Call Spread Placed on Nov 17. But, It is crucial to comprehend that the purchaser of a forceful spread doesn't anticipate the price reaching its target zone. Instead, he simply require strong movement towards the price zone to earn X2 the amount or more. We will monitor the participant's conduct further to grasp his intentions and exit plan from the market We do the best research as we can to find new opportunities in the massive amount of information every day to help you make data-driven trading decision. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all!
CME:6JZ2023Long
by ClashChartsTeam
"USD/JPY Holds Near Yearly Highs, Trading Around 151.70"The USD/JPY pair regains positive momentum, partially reversing significant losses from the previous day, returning to the 150.15 zone, the week's lowest level. Intraday buying activity intensified after Japan's GDP print fell below expectations, pushing the spot price to new daily highs. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair maintains its yearly high and has the potential to surpass these levels if the U.S. Dollar (USD) successfully halts recent losses. However, the greenback is facing hurdles from the volatile yields of U.S. Treasury bonds. At the time of writing, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hovers around 4.63%.
by Larissa-Trader
1
USD/JPY Recovers from Recent Losses, Hovers Around 150.50"USD/JPY rebounds from recent losses observed in the previous session following weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the pair trades slightly higher around 150.60 in Asian trading on Wednesday. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 in Tuesday's Asian session. The pair holds near yearly highs and has the potential to surpass these levels if the US Dollar (USD) successfully mitigates recent losses. Nevertheless, the greenback faces challenges from volatile US bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.63% at the time of writing.
by Gwen_Humuna
USD/JPY Extends Upside Momentum Beyond 151.00 Level The USD/JPY pair continues to trade positively for the sixth consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The upward movement is supported by higher US Treasury bond yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair is currently hovering around the 151.70 mark, marking a 0.10% increase for the day. USD/JPY has sustained its winning streak, trading above 151.40 in early European trading on Friday. Unexpectedly hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a significant impact, boosting US Treasury bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the Japanese government may consider interventions to limit the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair in response to these developments. Powell's statement at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on Thursday expressed concerns that the current policies may not be sufficient to curb inflation. This sentiment led to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY), fluctuating around 106.00, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield at 4.62% at the time of writing. Despite strong tightening policies from major central banks, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its accommodative stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank would cautiously approach exiting extremely loose monetary policies to prevent significant bond market disruptions. However, the Japanese Yen continues to face pressure as the plan to exit extremely loose policies may be delayed due to lower wage increases. Reasonable wage growth is considered a crucial factor for the Bank of Japan to contemplate an exit from prolonged loose monetary policies. Market participants closely monitor Fed's Logan speech and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, seeking signals to identify trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.What do you think about this pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1
Japanese Yen Nears 33-Year Low Amid Powell's Rate Hike SignalThe Japanese yen faced rapid depreciation today, approaching levels not seen in 33 years, following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes may continue amid concerns about persistent inflation. The yen traded at 151.44 against the US dollar, showing a slight 0.06% increase from the previous session. On Thursday, Powell reiterated hawkish views on interest rates, challenging market expectations that had predicted rate cuts in 2024. His comments underscored doubts about achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target with the current policy framework, leading the market to reconsider the potential for rate cuts in mid-2024 from June to July. This stance contributed to the yen's worst performance since August, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. The currency's notable slide over the past month hit a one-year low of 151.72 against the dollar on October 31 and is now approaching levels not seen since 151.96. The sharp decline of the yen has drawn the attention of Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF), raising growing concerns about the need for intervention in the currency market to stabilize the yen and minimize potential impacts on the Japanese economy. The MOF closely monitors these developments as currency exchange rates hover near a crucial level that previously prompted official action.
by Larissa-Trader
6
USDJPY: Shorting NowNot sure if this is the big short or not yet, but looking at price action it's been a jog up to this point, rather than a sprint, this tells me we're fine to short until at least the ascending dynamic trendline that reversed the last short. We have an engulfing candle on the 1 hour, followed by a long-body doji, so I think we're going to see a push down. If we go below then that's my reversal sign for bigger lots. The problem is history tells us BoJ will intervene, this type of knowledge can force people to get in big too soon. Let's see what happens from here, SL above the last high.
Short
by Finchcliffe
JPY long sentimentIn the last 3 days, the increased interest of options market participants in the 0.00685 call has been noticed. The buying is systematic, but in small volumes and with a significant time lag. Such behavior is not typical for insiders, so we are most likely dealing with professional speculators. The purchase of this share is logically justified: the volatility of the central strike is extremely low, and from a graphical point of view, speculators are counting on a correction to the liquid area of emotional buyers. At the same time, we define the level of 0.006775 as an indicator, the break of which will confirm the correctness of this sentiment. Before the break of this level, it will be extremely risky to open long positions. ****We do the best research as we can to find new opportunities in the massive amount of information every day to help you make data-driven trading decision****. ***Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all!***
CME:6JZ2023Long
by ClashChartsTeam
USDJPY 4H :Support further rise USDJPY New forecast The dollar/yen pair rose strongly to cross and settle above the 151.00 barrier, reinforcing expectations that the upward trend will continue to dominate in the long term, paving the way for additional gains of up to 152.50. Therefore the upward scenario will be remain valid and affective supported by moving average 50 that is continues to support the price to rise up but the current negativity may cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before resuming the proposed rise, so may the price try to do negative correction to 151.00 and then rise up,taking into account that the upward trend which will remain in place provided that the price maintains its stability above the 150.46 level. The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 151.76 and support line 151.00. Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . support line : 151.00 , 150.46 resistance line : 151.50 , 152.50 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Long
by Arazmajeed
28
BOJ under pressure to intervene yen weakness - Urgent Action Req Recent developments surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are under increasing pressure to intervene in the ongoing weakness of the yen. As we stay vigilant in our trading strategies, it is crucial that we pause and carefully consider the potential implications of such intervention. Therefore, I strongly recommend that each one of us exercise caution and reevaluate our positions before proceeding further. It is with prudence and foresight that we can navigate through these uncertain times and protect our interests. Let's take a moment to assess the situation and make informed decisions before resuming trading. Stay alert and trade wisely. Call to Action: As a responsible trader, I encourage you to pause your yen trading until further notice. Take this opportunity to reassess your positions, consult market experts, and stay informed about the latest developments regarding BoJ's potential intervention. By ensuring we are well-informed and cautious, we can mitigate potential risks and make more successful trading decisions. Together, let's prioritize protection and long-term gains by taking a step back and reflecting on our strategies.
by bryandowningqln
USD/JPY stuck below 150 ahead of Japan CPI reportSoaring government bond benefits continue to dominate the pair's price action. Investors still need to watch out for Japan which will likely rate closer to 150. USD/JPY fell near 148.80, but quickly recovered to around 149.50 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its inflation forecast for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 earlier. On Tuesday, Bloomberg forecast the BoJ's new core CPI for fiscal 2023 could reach 3%, up from 2.5% in July and more than 2% for fiscal 2024. Inflation Forecast higher shows that the BoJ is confident ahead of salary increase negotiations next spring.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
USDJPY; Zen and the art of economic cycle maintenanceThe Yen and thus, the Bank of Japan, is in a rather precarious position. (Then again, when was the last time they weren't - in a precarious position?? ... .) Admittedly, our Japanese is somewhat rusty lately but nowhere in the monetary manual did we find where it says: "Lending rates must be fixed at <0% or >10%, at all times!" So, when the BoJ hangs it's hat on some arbitrary metric, such as the volatility in the USDJPY in this case, to guide it's policy and a potential departure from the negative interest rates (more so than based on the underlying economic data - CPI, PPI, unemployment, etc.) and then said volatility collapses, almost immediately?! ... One could only speculate on the complex range of emotions, induced in the BoJ's leadership (WTF?!, etc.). So,now what? ... These previously unlikely turn of events suddenly provide a strong bias towards a (top-side) volatility spike, in the event of which a forced monetary intervention by the BoJ in the very near future becomes a virtually foregone conclusion! On an additional note; Given the current US-Japanese rate differentials (as well as other factors) the USDJPY remains the least "over valued" among all the Yen crosses - making it a less than ideal such metric. Try on the CHFJPY or even the EURJPY as an exercise in absurd over valuation, for example. The likes of which have solid, almost identical, precedents in the late 1970 European central bank policies, most ending "in tears" and none more than Switzerland's SNB's, which slid into one of it's deepest depressions by the beginning of the 1980s! This weeks technical picture (including Fridays close) further underlines this, by now much shifted, bias toward a top-side break out, potentially pushing prices well past the key 150.00 level, rather quickly. (E.g., certainly do Not be short the USDJPY, here! - To say the least.) Current Rate Differentials between the Bank of Japan and ... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - in Basis Points - ("most over valued" ranking) - CHFJPY (Switerland) --- +250 - (#1) - SKJPY (Sweden) --- +375 - AUDJPY (Australia) --- +400 - NOKJPY (Norway) --- +400 - EURJPY (EU) --- +450 - (#5) - CADJPY (Canada) --- +475 - GBPJPY (G. Britain) --- +515 - NZDJPY (N Zealand) --- +525 - USDJPY (US) --- +525 - MXNJPY (Mexico) --- +11.25 - (#4) - ZARJPY (S. Africa) --- +11.75 - (#2) - HUFJPY (Hungary) --- +13.00 - (#3) --------------------------------------------------------------------- p.s. This here is also the new Yen Thread!/b]
by Nemo_Confidat
2
DXY INDEX, READY For a MAJOR BULL-FLAG-BREAKOUT!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about the DXY, U.S.-Dollar Currency Index on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. Within the recent times the DXY has shown up with these main bounces in the range to retest previous resistances. With this occasion I detected further important signs to consider especially as bonds recently trended upward and non-DXY economies seem to move forward with higher interest rates than firstly expected. The unemployment rates for August could support a further strengthening in the DXY especially when the wave breakout is showing up in the underlying forex pairs also. The price-action seems to have reached such a momentum that the reversal is not likely now. The only concern here is for risk-on assets to make a turning into the more bearish direction. Major Trend-Dynamic Developments: When looking at my chart now you can watch there the DXY emerged with this massive ascending-trend-channel in which it bounced several times within the lower boundary and supports the recent uptrend with forming the next new highs that are necessary to hold the trend to the upside. Recently the index then moved forward to form the next important formation within this whole structure which is actually a major bull-flag-formation as it is marked in my chart. Such a formation has the potential to convert into a determining and extended bull-flag-breakout and currently the price-action is already attempting to continue with this final breakout meaning that from there on the DXY INDEX is going to emerge with high volume and form the appropriate wave-extension as it is marked in my chart. Upcoming Perspectives and Underlying Indications: With these bullishly inclined technical indications there are several other important indications which make sure that the DXY is continuing with the expected breakout and aiming for the target-zones that will be active after the breakout. All the non-DXY currencies in the basket seem to move further with the increased interest rate periods, this means that the DXY is strengthened as the opportunity costs of holding DXY increase with higher interest rates in non-DXY baskets. Furthermore, the bonds and treasury bills marked is showing increased high yields to the upside recently which is a main factor for a bullish cause supporting the recent trend dynamics and the expected breakout to settle. Taking this into the perspective, once the breakout has shown up it will activate target-zones marked in my chart and from there on the further determinations need to be measured, especially when the DXY shows up with a strong momentum into the target-zones this can also lead to a trend acceleration with a breakout above the channel. It will be an interesting dynamic to consider in the next times, therefore the DXY is in the dashboard watchlist and we are going to reevaluate and update when important changes emerged. Thank you for watching my analysis. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
TVC:DXY
by VincePrince
22