Asian Currency Crisis - Part two? Aussie Dollar Collapsing. RU
Aussie Dollar looking extremely weak adding it to the list.
Japanese Yen extremely weak
China Yuan Extremely weak.
There's a problem brewing in Asia / Oceania if the FRED does not start lowering rates you're going currencies like the JPY / CNY / AUD potentially lose 30-70% of its value against the
United States Dollar.
Japan cannot raise rates due to the leverage used by the BOJ to buy US treasuries and Japan Treasuries.
China lowering rates will not work as its completely reliant on cheap US Dollars to function.
Australia have also pivoted due to them having the highest household debt in the world, Australia relies on China to purchase resources, they cannot raise rates to deal with inflation the system cannot handle it.
These could be the first major currencies to enter the point of no return debt to GDP ending up like Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Lebanon
Debt To GDP Ratio's
JAPAN - 264% "GOV debt to GDP"
AUSTRALIA - 113.60% "House hold Debt"
CHINA - 80% "GOV debt to GDP"
For people who are unaware once you go past 100% in debt regardless if its Government or household, there has never been a currency in history that has survived paying off its debt and retracing.
Currencies failing will make debt cheaper to repay? well the second side of that is CPI / Inflation Japan & Australia cannot seem to get out of.
Sanctioning Russia & forcing a new BRICS development has really backfired here.
JPYUSD
USDJPY | FRED RATE CUT / BOJ / QE to Infinity Emergency Is here.
Japanese Yen running the risk of entering Hyperinflation like the Argentine Peso thanks to the USA.
JPY Used to purchase US Debt while USA has Inflation problem has caused them to purchase more than expected including the FRED running (System Open Market Account (SOMA) (soft YCC)
China cannot get growth due to US higher rates slowing business growth meaning > Bank Of China has to start rate cutting and essentially do extreme QE or China will collapse.
Japan will be FORCED to not raise interest rates due to them owning the most US Debt (bonds) on low interest rates. Japan is experiencing spike in inflation and currency devaluation as people are figuring this out.
China forced to QE to counter deflation Yuan will collapse.
Japan forced to QE to counter inflation Yen will collapse.
If Japan raises rates the BOJ & institutions have to offload US bonds collapsing the US Bond market as the interest rates will destroy the carry trade.
FRED cannot pause they have no choice to start rate cuts within the next months.
If the FRED does not do this Japan's demise will send the US bond market under forcing QE / YCC by the FRED sending the FRED balance sheet to all time highs.
If the FRED does not do this China could experience a complete society breakdown.
There's a log term H&S on the JPY/USD that was going to eventually be tested leading to a -47% of the JPY currency (they will be forced to QE to locals to deal with currency collapse like Argentina leading to even more devaluation.
NIKKEI225 Adjusted for Japan M3 supply showing more and more strength since the 1980s alerting local people are starting to lose faith in the Japanese Yen.
This is no longer a "get Inflation lower story" it has started a sovereign debt and sovereign currency crisis. If people are unaware how much power and the FRED has in this situation, this could provoke the start of a new Cold War. What happens when the biggest holders of US debt Japan / China implode? the entire US bond system implodes.
Suddenly the countries like El Salvador getting their credit upgraded while the US credit gets downgraded are looking very smart right now.
End Game.
Yen season is coming or not?Hello Traders
We believe that JPY will show us a large move in next few days.
First yen(JPY) has a significant economical fundamental data in upcoming week.
Second BOJ has mentioned their concerns about Yen value , and probably they will take an action in market.
Third EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY are showing similar technical patterns indicating another drop or possible higher low.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
🚨USDJPY will fall by Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern🚨USDJPY managed to form a Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern in the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
A confirmation sign of point D of the Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern can be a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern .
💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks.
🔔I expect USDJPY will FALL to the 🟢 support zone(139.00JPY-137.620JPY) 🟢.
🔅U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAUUSD : TRADE situation Hi Guys, I hope you are well
As I mentioned in the previous analysis, after reaching a very strong support in the range of the green box, the market shot upwards. Now I expect to see the gray box range and then a quick move towards $2000.
The analysis is in the high time frame and only shows the way. For trading, you must have your strategy in the short time.
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰ 31/JULY/23
⛔️DYOR
Always do your research.
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comments.
XAUUSD : DAILY ROADMAPHi Guys Hope you well.
According to the previous analysis, the price was able to move up from the support zone. According to the chart, I expect such a move.
The analysis is in the high time frame and only shows the way. For trading, you must have your strategy in the low time.
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰25/JULY/23
⛔️DYOR
Always do your research .
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below.and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comments.
XAUUSDT DAILY: IMPORTANT AREAHi Guys Hope You well
As you can see, we have reached a very important demand area in the daily time. With the price being supported in this area, I expect to be able to grow to the supply area around the price of $2000. The analysis is in the high time frame and only shows the way. For trading, you must have your strategy in the low time.
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰5/JULY/23
⛔️DYOR
Always do your research .
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below.and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comments.
JPYIRR SHORT JPY weakness continues:Strong bearishIran’s currency hits record low amid tensions with the West
Depreciation of the rial comes amid boiling tensions with the West and continuing protests in Iran.
On Sunday, the United States dollar went past the 450,000-rial mark for the first time on the open market.
On Sunday, the central bank said it will soon raise the maximum amount of currency that can be sold to an individual annually from 2,000 euros ($2,176) to 5,000 euros ($5,439) in an apparent effort to show it has no shortage of currency.
The cap was introduced after the US unilaterally abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, triggering a new currency crisis in Iran.
To combat currency devaluation, Iran’s police force has periodically announced the arrest of dozens of currency speculators in recent months.
Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki kept up verbal warnings on Tuesday against the yen's depreciation, saying he would respond appropriately if currency moves became excessive.
At the end the interest rates differential between 2 countries are important.
Which country offers more interest rates for your money? That currency is the winner
USDJPY will go UP by Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern🚀USDJPY is moving on 🟢 support zone(139.10 JPY-137.60JPY) 🟢.
Also, USDJPY has managed to form an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern in the support zone.
I expect USDJPY to start growing after completing the pullback to the neckline and at least touch the 🎯 target 🎯 of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern.
📚Since the Regular Divergence(RD+) between the right and left shoulders is clearly visible, this point adds to the validity of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern.
📚Another sign that increases the validity of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern is that the momentum of USDJPY approaching the neckline is greater on the right shoulder than on the left shoulder.
🔅U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
🚀 USDJPY | Get on board 🚀Hello.
Japan mobilised hundreds of billions of USD in its currency reserves in 2020 to defend the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) unmoved monetary policy and the JPY itself as the BoJ refused to hike the policy rate from -0.1 percent or to lift the yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds at 0.25 percent. As 2022 rolls into 2023, the pressure on the JPY and the Japanese financial system mounts again on the global liquidity crisis set in motion by the vicious Fed policy tightening and higher US treasury yields.
Pay attention to the news.
🛒 USDJPY - LONG 🛒
📈 4H TimeFrame 📈
🚀
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✅ Random Win Idea ✅
USDJPY | SELL NOW AND BUY LATER? (maybe)Hey Everyone!
I believe USDJPY can have both scenarios for the following reasons:
SELL setup:
- USDJPY has been very bullish recently and needs a strong rejection.
- Even with NFP news outcome being positive the USD is currently falling slightly.
- There is a good bearish channel and stoploss is covering our 100-200 moving averages.
Buy setup:
- After the likely rejection I believe a strong pullback to the psychological level 137.00 could trigger huge bullish pressure.
- That's where the 200 moving average is sitting on the daily and the 4h is nearby which usually trigger a reaction in the market.
- Overall market direction is also very bullish in favour for USD.
My personal opinion: I would not sell, I would wait for that pullback and stay patient, but for those who love a little risk, could be a good trade-down.
If moving averages do manage to break to the upside, this trade becomes invalid.
GOLD 4H move in the Channel Gold is in an ascending channel in the 4-hour time frame, and if it reacts to the bottom of the channel, we expect the price to rise to the top of the channel. Of course, with the failure of the important support zone, the falling process will begin.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : M.TeriZ - @AtonicShark
BITCOIN 3D TrendLine SupportCurrently, according to the chart, gold has reached the static resistance and dynamic resistance of the trend line and we are waiting for a reaction in this range. Of course, if this range is broken, we will see an increase in the price.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : M.TeriZ - @AtonicShark
Nikkei to stem dip?NIK225 - 24h expiry -
Selling pressure from 28805 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 28330 level.
We look to Buy at 28331 (stop at 28175)
Our profit targets will be 28725 and 28785
Resistance: 29295 / 29710 / 30300
Support: 28505 / 27880 / 27395
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GOLD 1W important Resistance In the gold chart in the weekly time frame, the price has reached an important resistance area, which we expect to fall from the area, and if this important area is complained, we will see higher prices on the ATH.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : M.TeriZ - @AtonicShark