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JPYUSD

Forex Update : the yen falls to a five-year low.Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ The yen plummeted to a near five-year low versus the US dollar, and other currencies suffered losses, as investors bet that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will lag behind its peers in tightening monetary policy to combat excessive inflation. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, fell 0.04 percent to 96.240. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell 0.18 percent to 115.93. The AUD/USD pair fell 0.13 percent to 0.7229, while the NZD/USD pair fell 0.21 percent to 0.6798. The USD/CNY pair was unchanged at 6.3723, while the GBP/USD pair fell 0.02 percent to 1.3529. On Tuesday, the yen fell to a five-year low of 116.35 per euro, as well as through its 200-day moving average to a two-month low of 131.45 per euro. Earlier in the session, it was trading at approximately 131.06 per euro, while sliding to a more than six-year low against the Swiss franc and a seven-week low against the Australian dollar. This resulted in a dramatic increase in US Treasury yields in the initial trading days of 2022, with the yen suffering as the yield spread between the US and Japan increased. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve of the United States will issue the minutes of its December meeting later in the day, which will be analyzed for hints about the central bank's rate hike schedule. Traders are looking forward to the U.S. jobs report, which contains the non-farm payrolls and is due on Friday, for more information. However, with Fed Funds futures indicating that investors expect an interest rate hike by May 2022, Analysts now anticipate two 25-basis-point raises in March and June, rather than a single boost in September. Resistance points for the USD/JPY 1) 115.41 2) 115.76 3) 116.32 Support points for the USD/JPY 1) 114.51 2) 113.96 3) 113.61 This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
by GabiDahduh
#JPYUSD Long term view shows weaker US$ and re-test of 110Hi All, my main 3 take-outs from this analysis are the following: 1- In the weekly chart - so long term view - the US$ is possibly going to re-test the 110 area (at least!). In fact, in that area we have a strong uptrend line (in red) which will possibly act as support 2- The cross came out from a descending channel which lasted since the end of 2016, and this breakout happened in March this year 3- Fibonacci tool suggests that the cross might not only re-test the 110 level (38.2 fibo level) but also test the 109 and the 107 (50% and 61,8%) Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
Short
by FrancescoMerlettini
Macro - Princes of the YenIdea for Macro: - Currencies lead stocks. Get the dollar right, and you get most things right. Few things are above the dollar in hierarchy of economic cycles. - I have been following and studying the dollar for a while, in ideas like this one: - However, there is another currency of great importance - the Yen. - Japan's Central Bank is the creditor of the world, possessing zero-negative interest rates for over 20 years. - The Yen Carry Trade is when investors borrow yen at a low interest then purchase either US dollars or currency in a country that pays a high interest rate on its bonds. These traders earn a low-risk profit. These traders may even invest the US dollars or EM currencies into higher yielding assets of that nation. - The Yen is the first currency that investors would demand before a new bullish cycle. - However, there is a finite amount of liquidity in each carry trade cycle, and once it is spent, it must inevitably be renewed. I believe we are at the end of such a cycle: Just ask yourself why is there such dollar demand, if indeed there was lasting inflation expectations and too much liquidity? Nikkei: - Nikkei's recent enormous rally left me scratching my head at first. It had been in a year long bear market, erased all of its losses of the year in 2 weeks in a rally which saw a multi-year top, then lost it again just as fast. Can anyone explain why? I think I can now. - I think Nikkei's last huge rally was actually the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade, which would send the yen crashing and Japan's stock market to consequently rise. - Each global crash is first preceded by an inexplicable blowoff top in Nikkei (effects are pronounced after 1999, when Japan introduced zero interest rates). Yen carry trade unwind. We are very close IMO: - As of now, the Yen had a similar structure before the 2018 and 2020 crash. The cycle is, buy up/borrow yen for the Yen Carry Trade, buy US/EM equities, until the liquidity is all spent. Then when it's spent, unwind for US dollars (and bonds with said dollars), crash equities while buying up the yen, repeat. A great bear always follows the Yen Carry Trade Cycle. - The Yen is a good indicator of global liquidity, as all liquidity must first flow through there. - Also, specifically to the yen - JPYUSD. It should be bought as equities suffer a drawdown, in preparation for the next cycle. The Princes of the Yen are making their move. GLHF - DPT
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
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